Survivor 31

[Da Prophet]

But why? Jeff was a conservative, Southern Alpha, which immediately means he's more likely to bond with Skupin. Plus, he had time to bond with Lisa on the reward they shared. He also went after Pete, and by extension Abi, instead of Skupin or Lisa at the tribal council where he was voted off.

So I see Jeff's vote as a toss up between Lisa and Skupin, depending on who he bonded more with. Abi is stuck on two votes, and still never wins.

Jeff had the stupid idea of voting out all the returning players. I know for most of the game it was targeted towards Penner but if Jeff was able to vote Penner out then I think he goes after Skupin. I don't think that Jeff would vote for a returning player based on his obsession with voting them out during his run in the game.

I'm not overly confident about who Jeff votes for if Abi makes the final three. After watching the season and how Jeff was so focused on returning players, it leads me to believe that he's either voting for Lisa or Abi because they're first time players just like him. Which means that Abi had a 50/50 chance at getting Jeff's vote and seeing as Lisa had that chance and couldn't convince Jeff to vote for her, I would lean towards Abi being able to convince Jeff.

That's why I give Abi at least 3 votes however Jeff's vote is up for debate but I don't think it goes to Skupin.

Edit: Also, in your hypotheticals, the closest Abi gets to winning is a tie with Lisa/Skupin. If the rumours (and logic) are to be believed, that means the member of the Final 3 who got the least votes would cast the tie-breaking vote. Skupin would vote Lisa, Lisa would vote Skupin. Abi still doesn't win.

We know for sure that Abi isn't getting Malcolm and Denise to vote for her. Which would mean the deciding vote belongs to Penner. If Abi can swing Penner to her side in the final tribal council then she wins 4-3-1. She probably can't do it and loses while on 3 votes.

As I said at the beginning, Abi had a better shot in the final tribal council than Skupin and Lisa did since they both only got a single vote. We agree that Abi has two votes locked in and I think the Jeff's vote is up for discussion and Abi has a good chance at being able to get his vote.

All I'm trying to say is that Abi wasn't going to be Kass at the final tribal council and get thrashed by the jury and never have a chance at winning. Abi had a shot if she can make it to the final tribal council.

 

[Blade]

Yes, if Abi became a well-spoken player who could eloquently explain her strategy without annoying or insulting the people whose votes she needs, she'd win Survivor.

And if Russell Hantz wasn't a sociopath, he would win Survivor too.

 

[Da Prophet]

Yes, if Abi became a well-spoken player who could eloquently explain her strategy without annoying or insulting the people whose votes she needs, she'd win Survivor.

And if Russell Hantz wasn't a sociopath, he would win Survivor too.

But Russell Hantz is the greatest player of all tiiiiiime! He plant that seed, that Russell seed in your tiny little miiiiiind. You don't even know it's there because Russell is so brilliant at planting his seeds. He's like a farmer, just planting seeds in the gaaaaaaaame.

 

[Akhilleus]

Russell is still my favorite player of all time. Yall can hate all you want.

 

[A11oftheLights]

I think russel, in only his first season on Samoa, was perhaps one of the most entertaining players I have watched.

 

[JamJam]

Keith during that immunity challenge though

 

[Da Prophet]

With each new episode I become more and more confident in Ciera winning this thing. Barely featured in this season which hopefully means she's going a long way into this game.

Fishbach looks like he's in a better position now. He's not getting to the final again but good on him.

 

[Akhilleus]

So glad Varner is gone. If he made it to the merge he could have done some under the radar damage. I could have seen him being similar to Skupin on his second time around. Thankfully though that didn't happen and he's packing his bags. That's what he gets, keeping Abi Maria around is like playing with fire. She's way too unpredictable, even though she's growing on me. Ideally I'd like to see her and Woo be the next too and just have Andrew and Tasha be put on the other two tribes. But I don't think that's going to happen, Woo or Abi or both is making the merge at this point.

But really big props to Andrew and Tasha. They were the bottom of the tribe when they got swapped, and somehow through two tribal councils they managed to make it so the spotlight wasn't on either of them. Which really wasn't too hard considering how much turmoil those other four were really in.

 

[Blade]

With each new episode I become more and more confident in Ciera winning this thing. Barely featured in this season which hopefully means she's going a long way into this game.

Ciera was my pick to win as well, but she hasn't had much "winner's content" either. She's a lock for the merge based on how things are going, but I can't see her going much further than that.

Spencer is looking most likely to win from where I'm sitting. He's got that abilities and the story.

 

[Akhilleus]

If I had to bet my life on one thing happening in Survivor, it's that Ciera and Monica were going to be the ones to sit out in the challenges. What a surprise that one was...how many challenges has Ciera actually done this season?

And I hate to break it to those guys but she is not winning. That edit she's getting points that out clear as day. We finally heard from Monica this last week, and that's only to set up the story arc for her imminent boot.

 

[A11oftheLights]

So glad Varner is gone. If he made it to the merge he could have done some under the radar damage. I could have seen him being similar to Skupin on his second time around. Thankfully though that didn't happen and he's packing his bags. That's what he gets, keeping Abi Maria around is like playing with fire. She's way too unpredictable, even though she's growing on me. Ideally I'd like to see her and Woo be the next too and just have Andrew and Tasha be put on the other two tribes. But I don't think that's going to happen, Woo or Abi or both is making the merge at this point.

But really big props to Andrew and Tasha. They were the bottom of the tribe when they got swapped, and somehow through two tribal councils they managed to make it so the spotlight wasn't on either of them. Which really wasn't too hard considering how much turmoil those other four were really in.

I dont understand how you get to this point. Assuming they lose the next challenge its too easy to convinve woo to vote abi (which is what the goal of Tash and Savage should be) or its too easy to convince abi to vote woo (or atleast it should be)

 

[Akhilleus]

I dont understand how you get to this point. Assuming they lose the next challenge its too easy to convinve woo to vote abi (which is what the goal of Tash and Savage should be) or its too easy to convince abi to vote woo (or atleast it should be)

The only way they don't make it is if that tribe loses out all the way till they're down to two. As dysfunctional as that tribe is, Abi is currently their only handicap. They're going to start getting a couple immunity wins. It's expected that they're going to merge at 12 or 13. Which gives us 3-4 more eliminations before the merge. If they don't lose at least 2 of those 3 or 4, then either Woo or Abi stays. Or if they don't lose anymore before the merge they both stay.

It's not entirely unlikely. Especially with

Spoiler

What is about to happen to Terry. He quits/is evacuated because his son got sick and is in the hospital. It's pretty much confirmed at this point and the timeline matches up to one of the upcoming episodes.

Also, if they do lose again...they would be stupid to keep Woo over Abi at that point. I mean if you're going to be down to 3 tribe members, what is the point of keeping anyone around for the challenges anymore. That would be the time to get rid of Woo before the merge. Not to mention Abi will probably stay loyal to Andrew and Tasha as long as they don't piss her off. Woo is going to join whoever talks to him first if he makes the merge.

Personally I'm predicting that tribe to actually get their first immunity win. Then I'm thinking Monica or Ciera are going, whichever tribe loses. That last episode was definitely setting up the story arc for Monica's boot though.

 

[A11oftheLights]

Also, if they do lose again...they would be stupid to keep Woo over Abi at that point. I mean if you're going to be down to 3 tribe members, what is the point of keeping anyone around for the challenges anymore. That would be the time to get rid of Woo before the merge. Not to mention Abi will probably stay loyal to Andrew and Tasha as long as they don't piss her off. Woo is going to join whoever talks to him first if he makes the merge.

Okay, the way I read your initial post I thought you meant they would hang around and Savage & Tasha would go. But I would still keep Woo, if they dont win the next challenge you dont know how many more there are going to be after that.

Spencer is either going a long way or his out next on his tribe. He got caught out again playing the game too hard and now might have started the seasonal feminist movement. I hate all gender alliances, normally they are female because the alpha-male alliance falls in a heap because they cant all be alpha male.

 

[Da Prophet]

Woo gave up a million dollars because he's the most loyal person on the island. This idea that Abi is more loyal than Woo is crazy. They should dump Abi and take their chance with Woo.

 

[Akhilleus]

Woo gave up a million dollars because he's the most loyal person on the island. This idea that Abi is more loyal than Woo is crazy. They should dump Abi and take their chance with Woo.

And this season is all about second chances and fixing what you did wrong. Even if Woo is loyal, he's not really in an alliance with Tasha or Andrew. He's going to be a free agent at the merge...and THEN is when he'll be loyal again (If he hasn't learned his lesson that is).

Also I just saw a preview for Wednesday with Abi supposedly saying to Tasha in a confessional that she's "dead to her". So maybe not so much...surely Woo is smarter to side with Tasha and Andrew and get rid of Abi than vote with Abi and force some sort of crazy tie. And surely Abi can't be that stupid to cause drama and screw herself out of the game right here. Oh wait, this is Abi we're talking about.

 

[Akhilleus]

That was pretty predictable. They set up for it last week that's how I knew it was coming.

 

[Da Prophet]

The Cirie Fields 3-2-1 voting strategy is still one of the most amazing moves in Survivor and I love when we get the chance to see it again. So difficult to do but it's brilliant when it happens.

Ciera still looking good in those post immunity challenge celebrations. Joe is just going to keep on winning challenges for the tribe while Ciera slides into the merge and onto victory!

Spencer getting the growth narrative that Fishbach claimed to have in Tocantins. Hope it works out the same for him.

 

[Blade]

Who would've guessed that Kimmi Kappenberg would be catalyst behind the most genuine blindside in the game so far...

I'm really loving that Bayon alliance right now. Jeremy, Stephen, Kimmi, Spencer and Wiggles against the Ta Keo alliance of Wentworth, Joe, Keith, Ciera and Kass is going to be absolute gold at the merge. Assuming they all make it that far.

 

[Akhilleus]

Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying this. But if Abi is in the final three, I would vote for her. Even over my three favorites of Spencer, Jeremy, and Joe. She came into the game as one of the easiest targets and most unliked. Since then she's been to every tribal except one and she's still there. She might be my fourth favorite...probably 5th behind Kelley.

Also, storylines have been leading to me thinking Spencer starts making some big moves at the merge. It seemed like the three times Spencer avoided elimination, they were setting those up as crucial mistakes by his tribemates.

Jeremy on the other hand is controlling the entire game. If he and Spencer reunite next week, they can be dangerous.

Looks like next week as well Chaos Kass' decision is going to bite her. Not only is she on the outs with Spencer and the connections he made on Bayon, but she just pissed off Savage real bad too.

 

[Skairipa Matrix]

Hopefully next week Kass goes home for being an idiot. But I got a feeling she slides through the game for awhile now while the big guns take each other out.

Also Fish is starting to annoy me, the fact he was freaking crying because his tribe didn't wanna take out Joe is pathetic.

 

[Da Prophet]

Horrible move by Savage to use Ciera as the person to receive Spencer's vote. Why not just use KW instead of someone who is in your alliance?

Fishbach crying about the golden boy was funny. I don't think he can convince the tribe to vote out Joe which should make for a great boot episode for Fish.

 

[Skairipa Matrix]

Horrible move by Savage to use Ciera as the person to receive Spencer's vote. Why not just use KW instead of someone who is in your alliance?

Fishbach crying about the golden boy was funny. I don't think he can convince the tribe to vote out Joe which should make for a great boot episode for Fish.

From the looks of things next episode is the merge. He shouldn't have an issue getting Joe out if so.

 

[A11oftheLights]

Kass has the biggest ego and it cant handle the pressure of tribal council. First time she goes to tribal council and she is already looking to be Kaos Kass again. Savage should have just used himself as the bait or at the very least talked to Ciera first

 

[Da Prophet]

From the looks of things next episode is the merge. He shouldn't have an issue getting Joe out if so.

Jeremy really wants to keep Joe as a shield and it's a good idea considering that the physically strong men are usually taken out around this point in the game. I think Fish is going to be seen as a bigger threat because he knows more about strategy than Joe does.

Fish has already proven he can make the final so I see him getting the boot before Joe does if Jeremy is truly in control as we are being made to believe.

Ready for a Wiglesworth immunity run though.

 

[Skairipa Matrix]

The immunity comps should be GREAT now. Wigglesworth, Tasha, Spencer, Joe, Jeremy etc.