NFL 2012/13 Playoffs LD

[shattered dreams]

Is your argument that momentum has nothing to do with performing well?

It is basically that doing well the last few games of the season is nowhere near as big a deal as people make it out to be compared to doing well for the whole season.

 

[jmt225]

Wes Welker is the Brett Favre of wide receivers. The guy is incredible, but man can he really fuck up sometimes.

The Patriots were leading 13-7, driving down the field, in Baltimore territory, and on 3rd and 7 Welker dropped a pass where he was wide open for the first down. What happened after that? Pats had to punt and the Ravens went on a 21-0 run. If Welker makes that catch, I believe it's a completely different ballgame.

 

[Slyfox696]

It is basically that doing well the last few games of the season is nowhere near as big a deal as people make it out to be compared to doing well for the whole season.

So how does this game show that, since the regular season ended weeks ago? Genuine question.

 

[shattered dreams]

So how does this game show that, since the regular season ended weeks ago? Genuine question.

I think I should have added in the playoffs to end of that statement. People were claiming that losing at the end of the year means you do bad in playoffs while winning at the end means you will have momentum. No doubt Baltimore has momentum at this point but it has nothing to do with what they did at the end of the regular season.

 

[KettleFace]

Great outcome. Can't wait.

Ray fuckin' Lewis.

 

[JGlass]

Wes Welker is the Brett Favre of wide receivers. The guy is incredible, but man can he really fuck up sometimes.

The Patriots were leading 13-7, driving down the field, in Baltimore territory, and on 3rd and 7 Welker dropped a pass where he was wide open for the first down. What happened after that? Pats had to punt and the Ravens went on a 21-0 run. If Welker makes that catch, I believe it's a completely different ballgame.

I was thinking exactly this, except without the Brett Favre comparison. I've seen quite a few games where Wes Welker actually hanging onto the ball could have changed the outcome for the Pats in a positive way.

 

[Moon Knight]

Ravens vs. 49ers

Didn't see that coming. I hope the 49ers win, don't want them to lose their first Super Bowl. Would make ESPN happy to see a non-white man win an SB as the starter.

 

[Slyfox696]

I think I should have added in the playoffs to end of that statement. People were claiming that losing at the end of the year means you do bad in playoffs while winning at the end means you will have momentum. No doubt Baltimore has momentum at this point but it has nothing to do with what they did at the end of the regular season.

So momentum does make a difference?

 

[klunderbunker]

Dang the Harbaughs' dad is going to be unbearable for awhile to his friends.

 

[Trill Co$by]

Flacco is finally able to put his name into the record books as an Elite quarterback. Two weeks in a row, he was the underdog quarterback and came out the winner. First he took down Payton Manning and now Tom Brady. There's nobody who can deny that he's reached an all time high in his career.

The question is can he bring the Lombardi Trophy to the city of Baltimore?

 

[shattered dreams]

So momentum does make a difference?

Depends how you define momentum. I didn't really see anything about this game that screamed momentum. In many ways momentum is just a measure of luck. Since you are unlikely to get consistently lucky it might be advantageous to be unlucky before the playoffs start.

I don't think the amount of games won in a row has much if any direct bearing on if you win the next game (especially in a 5 or less game sample). Do you?

 

[Rayne]

That was the second killing Ray Lewis has been involved in.

 

[hatehabsforever]

There's no discounting the importance of momentum as a general rule, but this year has been a bit of an anomaly. Generally speaking, teams that finish the regular season poorly don't do well in the post season, although the Ravens this particular season are an exception to this rule. Perhaps the boost the team is receiving from the soon to be retired Ray Lewis is superseding the lack of momentum they carried from the end of the regular season. Typically, though, teams that finish the regular season the way the Ravens did don't excel. And let's not forget, it took a near miracle play and a brain fart from the Denver secondary to put Baltimore in the position to pull off this upset; their lack of momentum should have ended their season with a loss to the a Broncos last week.

And of course, the momentum which the 49ers will carry on the shoulders of their young quarterback may still, at the end of the day, be enough to stop the Ravens. Here's hoping.

 

[Moon Knight]

Dang the Harbaughs' dad is going to be unbearable for awhile to his friends.

I almost forgot about that. Go 49ers!

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Welp time to break out the Jameson and avoid ESPN for the next month.

At least I have the Bruins and MMA.

 

[shattered dreams]

There's no discounting the importance of momentum as a general rule, but this year has been a bit of an anomaly. Generally speaking, teams that finish the regular season poorly don't do well in the post season, although the Ravens this particular season are an exception to this rule. Perhaps the boost the team is receiving from the soon to be retired Ray Lewis is superseding the lack of momentum they carried from the end of the regular season. Typically, though, teams that finish the regular season the way the Ravens did don't excel. And let's not forget, it took a near miracle play and a brain fart from the Denver secondary to put Baltimore in the position to pull off this upset; their lack of momentum should have ended their season with a loss to the a Broncos last week.

And of course, the momentum which the 49ers will carry on the shoulders of their young quarterback may still, at the end of the day, be enough to stop the Ravens. Here's hoping.

Long story short, the numbers from recent years don't support an assertion as strong as this. It just ignores too many factors. Small sample sizes are prone to such problems.

 

[Lowdown]

I'm glad the Niners finished off the Falcons. I would've been pissed if they had blew it after killing the Pack last week. And congrats to the Ravens on their win. I don't know who to pick in the Super Bowl, but it should be good.

 

[Slyfox696]

Depends how you define momentum. I didn't really see anything about this game that screamed momentum. In many ways momentum is just a measure of luck. Since you are unlikely to get consistently lucky it might be advantageous to be unlucky before the playoffs start.

I don't think the amount of games won in a row has much if any direct bearing on if you win the next game (especially in a 5 or less game sample). Do you?

Overall, wins are merely an easy tool to use to determine momentum. But, when you get down to it, you can still lose and gain momentum.

 

[The Holy One]

I know everyone is talking about Ray Lewis going out with one, but Randy Moss actually has another shot at a Super Bowl ring. I honestly hope the game comes down to a play involving those two.

 

[shattered dreams]

Overall, wins are merely an easy tool to use to determine momentum. But, when you get down to it, you can still lose and gain momentum.

What is momentum and how does it effect a game?

To me wins in general tell you a team is good. I have never really understood why people tend to chalk winning streaks up to momentum over talent. Pro teams rarely experience significant changes in talent level due to intangibles. It does happen when injuries change things or new players emerge. Ravens were a very good team early in the season and then had some injuries etc. They had no reason to rush guys back in the final games. The Ray Lewis stuff makes a nice story for the media to write about but fancy speeches don't significantly change talent level. I feel like it is easy to explain how momentum isn't the primary or even secondary force here. Talent, luck then momentum. In postseason luck might be first unless your team is that much more talented.

 

[Skairipa Matrix]

Ohhhh my, I'm totally listening to Boston sports radio tomorrow just to hear the Pats fans whine and complain about the game. Should be glorious.

You mean EEI? Cause that's what I'll be tuning into.

 

[Slyfox696]

What is momentum and how does it effect a game?

Have you ever played basketball? Have you ever gotten into a "hot streak" shooting the ball, where everything feels great, your muscles work together perfectly and you cannot miss?

Apply that same concept to a team as a whole.

I have never really understood why people tend to chalk winning streaks up to momentum over talent.

It's both. Unless you're playing a bunch of nobodies, it's rare for talent alone to account for a sustained streak.

 

[Big Sexy]

Joe Flacco has made himself a lot of money this postseason regardless of the outcome in two weeks. He has thrown for 858 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions this postseason.

 

[shattered dreams]

Have you ever played basketball? Have you ever gotten into a "hot streak" shooting the ball, where everything feels great, your muscles work together perfectly and you cannot miss?

Apply that same concept to a team as a whole.

Decent explanation but it is rare to sustain such a shooting streak for even a whole game as an individual, especially if it is abnormal to your talent level. Now you are saying a whole team does it for over a month? Not sure I am buying that. Who displayed the momentum for Baltimore tonight?

It's both. Unless you're playing a bunch of nobodies, it's rare for talent alone to account for a sustained streak.

I disagree. If you have more talent you are more likely to win period. Are you including luck in momentum? Take you hot shooting streak example. If you have your shooting momentum going and then you happen to get a lucky bounce on an off shot, was that momentum aided?

One of the biggest plays in this game was that concussion fumble. It had nothing to do with any of this except dumb luck.

Personally I think people use momentum to explain that which they can't easily explain, often retroactively. I am fine with the idea of admitting there are things that we can't fully explain, what I have a problem with is how little effort is put into trying explain the vast majority of what happened. Too many people just skip to the intangible step when there are much less esoteric explanations.

I think the great fallacy of momentum is that no one talks frankly about when it ends. Basically momentum last until it doesn't. Of course it is easy to point out when selectively isolated but what if you have to predict if a team has momentum before the game instead of after? If you start doing that I think you will find your results less conclusive. Maybe that is my main issue with momentum. Are you claiming you can predict that shooting hot streak?

 

[Poop Master Flex]

This should be a great super bowl. I've been saying niners wouod win all season but Baltimore is looking like a team that could very well go all the way. They've knocked off the 2 best AFC teams now lets see if they can knock off what I consider the best team in the NFL.

Nonetheless I'm getting my ass groove in the couch shaped for the super bowl.

Go Niners!