First of all, top notch work. Sincerely. I've long been an advocate of keeping Cena face but I have never really heard it put so well.
Thanks. I'm often called a dipshit so being complimented for a post is a nice change of pace.
That being said, I have to disagree with you a little bit. I think that it is quite possible to turn Cena despite his values and there's one huge reason for it: Bret Hart. A lot of the things you used to describe Cena could also have been used to describe Hart while he was on top; value system, mean streak, etc. He was also the top guy in the company but by the end of his face tenure, his fan support started to dwindle. Not to the extent that Cena's has, but it was still noticeable nonetheless. Now lets say that turning Cena was a viable option, ignoring all of the merchandise arguments and whatnot, you could do so by almost mirroring the Bret Hart heel turn.
I've thought about that but the major difference I see is that Bret somehow got to only turn on AMERICAN fans. I'm not sure if that makes a difference, but Bret was so over in Canada that he remained a face there while a heel everywhere else. Plus, the business was changing and that was the catalyst but you start talking about that next so I'll hold off.
Bret's catalyst was Steve Austin. Bret snapped after the crowd turned their backs on him and put their support behind Austin which enraged Hart to the point of turning on the fans. The fact that they would rather support a foul mouthed, beer drinking snake over a guy who always tried to do the right thing, a Dudley Do-Right if you will, was enough for him to change his values.
In this case, the business was changing drastically. That's not the case here. Business has been the same for a long time and moron fans have been booing the guy since he became champion basically. That's probably why this story is ridiculous to me. Cena has always had a mixed reaction. It's not like Hart who was the most over guy in the company and then got passed by in popularity by a "bad guy". Cena has had a mixed following for 5 years so to say that it "finally got to him" is a bit stupid in my opinion. Also, the beauty of Hart's heel turn is that he didn't really change his values. He simply chewed out fans for changing THEIR values. He was more of a Punk type heel in that he was preaching his good ways and people hated it. He was putting down America for its flaws (all true things) and just getting crazy heat for it. What you suggested is that Cena has to change his values. Until you show me how hustle, loyalty, and respect become heel characteristics, you can't make the two hypothetical turns mirror images of one another.
Cena's catalyst would be The Rock. If you turn Cena, just have him snap for similar reasons. The fans turn their back on him in favor of The Rock, a guy who doesn't even show up most of the time, does all of his talking "via satellite," and makes false promises. He tells the fans to shove it, thus, firmly cementing his status as a heel. He no longer cares about going out and putting on a great show, he doesn't rely on hard work to win his matches, he has no problem cheating; he only cares about doing what's right for himself.
So here comes the main problem. It actually seems to me that the heel turn you are suggesting (and many others of course) would actually most mirror that of The Rock. In Rock's case in 2003, his catalyst was Hulk Hogan, a mostly retired guy who returned to the company at 48 to steal the Rock's pop at WM18. Rock I suppose grew jealous over the year about this and in their rematch like 10 months later, turned heel. Now, this might be debateable, but I thought this was an utter failure. Essentially, you took a guy who wasn't going to be around full time himself and turned him heel for the sake of an opponent that wouldn't stick around? Let's look at where he went after that:
-Rock feuds with random nobodies like Hurricane on Raw. Just substitute random upcoming heel with random comedy face and he's still doing the same service.
-Rock feuds with Steve Austin for their 3rd Wrestlemania encounter (Austin's last match). This could have been done with both as faces which was the one way it never ended and come on IT'S ROCK/AUSTIN. You could do it and it will sell regardless of story going in.
-Rock feuds with the debuting Goldberg before leaving the company. This could have been done with Rock as a face and actually would have been better that way. If Rock is a face, he's one of the great babyfaces to ever lace up boots and he's still in his prime. If Goldberg beats a face Rock in his debut match, that is a HUGE rub for him to start with. As it stood, he beat a heel Rock which was still good but not nearly as good. Essentially, Rock's heel turn benefitted no one and created no new business. You have to think about that when doing these things "will this move make me money". In Rock's case, the answer is no.
So how about Cena?
Let's say Cena's catalyst is The Rock and he complains how the fans support a part timer and he's sick of it. Then what? He'll feud with all the babyfaces that were heels that went through him for success. Are any of those feuds moneymakers? Maybe Punk/Cena with Cena the heel if done right, but that's basically it. Sheamus/Cena? Orton/Cena? Ryder/Cena? I'm not sure the possibilities are great for Cena the heel. So you used a catalyst and didn't think about the future and now you are stuck with a guy that has MAYBE one money feud in his "new character". Now perhaps the writing team can make us care about some of these matches that have happened before but with different roles, but I'm not sure I'd buy it. Of course, a face Miz and a heel Cena would be fun, but now you are talking about turning two guys. It's still not very plausible and I don't think there's very much money at all in a turn, especially when you consider that Punk and Cena, the only money feud I suggested, happened with both as babyfaces essentially and it sold better than it probably would in any other scenario. That tells me that smart money is in Cena as the controversial babyface, not a full on heel.
Admittedly, there's a few flaws. For one, a lot of fans have been sour on Cena for a lot longer then they had on Hart. However, I don't see it being as much as an issue. The bigger issue would be that since Rock is actually a part timer, he would basically have to sell the turn by himself, likely at the expense of every face on the roster. I really don't think there's any flaws that are so glaring that it would cause this to be a failure, but I'd love to hear what you think about it.
Well, we've talked about these things already. The main thing that would make this a failure is that there's just not a long term solution to make this work. He's not "going hollywood" and the business isn't conveniently changing like it did for Hart. Unfortunately, the problem is that John Cena the man is as virtuous as his character. That is actually a major hinderance as Hogan was able to turn because as wrestling became more about blending reality into it, it was easy for people to buy Hogan as full of himself and "hollywood" because..........he was. Heck, just read his recent interview. He STILL thinks that him vs. Andre in 80 when he was an up and comer was the thing that sold Shea Stadium, not Zybysko vs. Sammartino. The guy has a bloated ego so it was easy to believe him as a douche. Cena has done nothing but good things outside the ring and is essentially the Bret (not the Hogan) of our generation. He is the good guy of good guys on and off the field (football metaphor but go with it) so it would seem disingenuous for him to drop his values. Again my reasoning is simple: he is beyond a character. His IS John Cena in the ring and we know more about him than almost any wrestling persona EVER. Therefore, a lot of character development and an amazingly written story would be needed to make all the pieces work for a Cena heel turn. I still don't think it will ever make sense but that's what Cena gets for giving us so many layers to his personality and allowing us to understand his every emotion.
Also, just to reiterate, I'm not saying they should turn Cena heel. Just that they could without insulting anyone's intelligence.
I think it's more about insulting their own intelligence really. Cena's stories have been so intricate and his character has grown many layers throughout the years. You can't just "flip him" like you could characters back in the day. Again, let's compare him to The Rock. What did we learn about The Rock throughout his ENTIRE career. He was a 3rd generation kid who was passionate about the business, but his positive attitude was hated by fans so he decided that he didn't need fan support as he was born great and would become great in the business regardless. He then started talking in the 3rd person and we learned that he was quick witted to insult people, but over the next 4 years we learned nothing about Rock the character. Actually, about the ONLY thing we got until like 2001 was that he was a jerk to people until Mick softened him up a tiny bit. Still, his schtick was simple: he insulted people, they insulted back, we had a match to see who was better.
Cena is different. We can think back about the different feuds he's had and the different emotions involved in them. We know a lot more about Cena because he gave us more to know. His promos were about him, not just insults and catchphrases. The business has changed and there is a lot more investment in characters (in the main event, I know lower card guys get pretty much nothing). In fact, we complain if promos don't tell us enough about what's going on. Thus, with all we know about Cena, we can't flip him back and forth like an Attitude Era cartoon character. We have to thoroughly go through all the things he's said and done to find a way for his actions to make sense within the context of his character. Everything he does has to be justified otherwise a lot of people will call bullshit.
I'm definitely with you in that he shouldn't turn, but I also stand firm in that it's VERY tough to do it even if they want to. It's also not smart financially (and we're not talking merchandise) in that other than Rock, there's not a ton of fresh matchups for a heel Cena that people would pay to see. I think it would flop and you wouldn't get to the following Wrestlemania with Cena as a bad guy. No way.