The more I think about it, the less I think Kennedy is going to win.
We've all discussed his step backwards since his injury, as well as how every push seems to derail for different reasons, but there's also this - Jericho's IC title.
Who's he going to defend against? He has nobody to feud with outside of Carlito and Kennedy, and Carlito has his own feud right now with Rhodes/Holly. I say, they're planning on a Jericho/Kennedy feud at the top of the midcard, giving Kennedy the IC title, and then letting him build up from there.
So here comes the question, then. No Hardy, no Kennedy, no Jericho as he doesn't need it, no Matt Hardy because he has no shot whatsoever. That leaves us with MVP, Morrison, Shelton, and Carlito.
Shelton & Carlito = Could actually be darkhorses here to win, but use it for the ECW title. What if we get "the best of both ideas", and actually have Shelton (or Carlito) cash in the Money in the Bank at WrestleMania to defeat Kane, if he wins the battle royal and takes the gold from Chavo. That gives us the Wrestlemania cash-in-shock (albeit not nearly as close to the level it could be with the WWE/WHC titles). Shelton, nor Carlito, would be able to win the MITB and go on to challenge for the top two titles, so the ECW title gets a little more recognition and plays the punching bag for now.
MVP = Soon to be main event star, guaranteed. However, he's the US champ, and he needs to lose to Hardy. If he wins the MITB, then loses the belt to someone like Matt, he'll look so weak that we'll need to spend the next half a year building him up again to get him back into the spot where he looks like a legitimate contender. Could win, but it'll be tricky in the coming months.
Morrison = He may be your best bet here, surprisingly. Former ECW champ, getting better by the week, and he took a step backwards to become the tag team champions with the Miz. That tag run could be ending soon. What better way to give him the momentum he lost than to have him win the Money in the Bank match and then, down the line, have him cash it in. He doesn't need to win the belt that night - all he needs to do is put on a damn good show and convince everyone that he deserved the shot in the first place. That way, you don't hot shot him the main belt when he's not ready, but you hot shot him the POSITION to challenge for it. If you get yourself in the right feud, you're fastened for the main event status. Look at Austin/Hart.
CM Punk = Forgot him on the first post, so I'm editing him back in here. He has a good shot as well, as he's a little above Morrison in terms of breaking the barrier into the main event status. I'd say he has less of a chance than MVP, but more of a chance than Morrison.
Kennedy still has a really good shot, but not as much as I had previously thought. I can only bet with assurance that Matt Hardy won't be winning it, as the guy can't even find his way into the US title yet after all these months, let alone a main event belt.
Chances to win, in order, I feel:
1. Kennedy / MVP
2. CM Punk
3. Morrison
4. Shelton
5. Carlito
6. Jericho
7. Matt Hardy