This match could be good, despite Mark Henry being in it. I completely expect Henry's reign to end here, and right now, it smells like Matt Hardy all the way. I won't say he doesn't deserve an ECW Championship reign, but he's the least interesting guy to put it on, save perhaps Chavo.
I could also see The Miz win this thing, as WWE are teasing a Miz & Morrison break-up. If they're gonna break up the team, they'd better have a push in store for both men. The Miz has proven himself more than capable to be a great singles competitor, and if Miz wins this, he could feud with Matt Hardy or even better, we could have a Miz vs. Morrison feud.
Finlay, I believe, has earned an ECW Championship reign by being an excellent worker for several years, but I don't believe it will happen now. Mike Knox will probably come and interfere in the match anyway, something I don't particularly care for as Knox is pretty useless. I can see Finlay becoming ECW Champion in the future, and if he drops the midget and becomes the shillelagh-swingin', arm-wringin', celtic-crusifyin', lyin' fighting Irish bastard again, he could be a fantastic fit as ECW Champion.
But all in all, Matt Hardy's most likely gonna win this. I won't argue with WWE's decision, but I say for me, Matt is not the best choice. There are just some guys who work better without a championship than with.