We're down to eight teams now, and after this Sunday, we'll have both conference championship games figured out. Everyone only needs three wins to be declared Super Bowl Champs. It's go big or go home now. Here's my previews to all four of these games:
VS.
When: 4:30 ET, Today
Where: Heinz Field
What Channel: CBS
Breakdown: The NFL's most heated rivalry kicks off our 2nd playoff weekend. This rivalry has been neck and neck dating back to 2003, with the Steelers leading the series since then 9-8, although the point differential between the two is equal at 305-305. This is the rubber match between the two teams, with the Ravens winning the first contest after a game winning TD pass to TJ Houshmanzadeh by Joe Flacco, and the Steelers winning the second game after a strip sack by Troy Polomalu, followed by the Steelers punching it in. These games are always tight, bitter contests, with the team that makes the biggest play at the latest part of the game pulling out the victory more often then not. It also helps that these two teams just plain don't like each other, something that can't be said for some 'rivalries' in the league. These are hard hitting contests, and in the cold Pittsburgh weather, I don't expect any less from either team.
For the Ravens to win this game, I think they have to attack the weaker part of the Steelers defense, which is their secondary. Joe Flacco, despite being flat out bad in some of his early postseason games, is coming off a huge game over the Chiefs and has some dangerous weapons with Boldin (who needs to get a lot of targets; these are the types of games they got him for) Houshmanzadeh, Heap, Derrick Mason, and even Dante Stallworth could stretch the field deep for them. The run defense of Pittsburgh is just too good for them to force 25-30 carries to Ray Rice and expect good things to happen, especially with the reports of him being sick. They should pass often, with using the run to catch the Steelers off guard, and try to take advantage whenever they have good field position. 17 points will more then likely win this game.
For the Steelers, I think its a little bit of the opposite. While 92 rushing yards per game is very good, I think there needs to be a focus on the run with Mendenhall, and then use the deep play action bombs to Mike Wallace at least a few times. The disparity between run and the pass have to be almost even, with a little more run to pass. Ben Roethlisberger has been able to make the clutch plays when needed to against the Ravens, and he'll have to keep that up if he wants to have a chance for his 3rd Super Bowl ring in his career.
Prediction: This has all of the makings for another classic in Heinz. If you wanna see a lot of points, I suggest you don't turn to this game. However, if you don't watch it, you may be missing out on what has the potential to be the best game of the playoffs. This is going to be a hard hitting nailbiter. The team that makes the last play will win, just as how it is always in this series. I love watching these games. It's what the NFL is all about. Steelers 14, Ravens 10.
VS.
When: 8:00 ET, Tonight
Where: Georgia Dome
What Channel: FOX
Breakdown: This game is being dubbed as the 'unofficial' NFC Championship game because it's clear that these are the two best teams in the NFC. It's almost unfair to the Falcons because they're forced to go against the 6 seed Packers, while the Bears, the number 2 seed, have Seattle, a heavy underdog. But, you have to beat who you're dealt against, and I know the Falcons won't be complaining about this matchup, because they do still have the ultimate equalizer, the Georgia Dome, on their side. Matt Ryan has the best home record among active QB's, with a nice 20-2 mark. He's at his best at home, and will hope to give this team, that has high expectations, a shot in the NFC Championship game for the first time since the Michael Vick days.
For the Packers, I see the key of the game being James Starks, the 6th round rookie out of Buffalo. He had a huge game against the Eagles, and to maintain some balance and keep the Packers from being one dimensional, he's going to have to get some big runs and first downs. While Atlanta's run defense is their strong point, if Starks can have a 70, 80 yard rushing game that would be a success for the Packers. Rodgers will have to throw a lot for them to win, but the run game could be the hidden key for the Packers to try and walk out of the Georgia Dome with an NFC Championship berth.
For the Falcons, it's all on QB Matt Ryan. We know how good he has been in the regular season, but this is only his 2nd career postseason start, and in his first one, he wasn't all that impressive in a Wild Card loss to the Arizona Cardinals in 2009. While he's now 2 years older and 2 years better, and does have the home field advantage in his favor, it's going to be interesting to see if he can do what he does best, and that's get a game winning score late in the game. He'll need some help from Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, along with a solid running game by Michael Turner, but it's on Ryan's shoulders in this one.
Prediction: While Green Bay was my preseason pick to go the Super Bowl, it's tough going against a home Falcons team. This game, like the one they played back in the middle of the season, will come down to a last second big play (just like the first game of the weekend). Do I have enough faith to pick a 3rd year QB, even if he's as good as he is at home? No. Packers 30, Falcons 23.
VS.
When: 1:00 ET, Tommorow
Where: Soldier Field
What Channel: FOX
Breakdown: Many people, including yours truly, were shocked to see the Seahawks play so well last week against the defending Super Bowl champions after losing to them during the season badly and just not being that good of a team at all this year, despite winning their division. Their offense played much better then anyone could have imagined, and the game clinching TD run by Marshawn Lynch was one of the greatest runs in playoff history. However, now the Seahawks will have to go on the road to try and win at cold Soldier Field to advance to the NFC Championship game. Do we need a reminder of the Seahawks last 3 road playoff games, which happened against the Packers, Bears, and Packers, respectively? Hmmm...
Granted, this team, save for a few players, but you know that aura of those road playoff games is still there. The key for the Seahawks has to be their entire defense. With all due respect to the Saints, the Bears D is much more better then theirs with Julius Peppers heading the D-Line and Brian Urlacher leading the LBs. They are going to have to do their best in holding Jay Cutler down, who has played much better since their meeting in Week 6. A few timely turnovers would also help, and Matt Hasselbeck has to play just as good on the offensive side to give them a punchers chance.
For the Bears, its simply do what you have to do offensively, and that's give the rock to Matt Forte, who's gotten more attention rushing out of the backfield then you would expect from a Mike Martz offensive system. The longer the Seahawks stay in the game, the more confidence they get, which makes them more dangerous. Seattle knows they're the heavy underdog, so Chicago has to do what the Saints failed to do last week, get up early, and just sit on the lead. The Saints were up 10-0 in the 2nd quarter, but then let Hasselbeck go off. A Seattle team like this will be dangerous the longer they stay in the game.
Prediction: While I'm rooting for the Hawks to keep this crazy run going, I don't see them pulling out another upset. I don't see a blowout, but this is an early game for a West Coast team. Not a good recipe for success, to me. This could be either another exciting game, or be ugly early. Bears 24, Seahawks 13.
VS.
When: 4:30 ET, Tommorow
Where: Gillette Stadium
What Channel: CBS
Breakdown: In our final matchup of rematch weekend, the loudmouth New York Jets and New England Patriots will duel for their rubber match, like their AFC counterparts, but these two games weren't nearly as close as the Ravens/Steelers two games were (the Jets won the first contest 28-14, the Pats won the second 45-3). Despite that 45-3 thrashing only about 2 months ago, the Jets weren't backing down this week in the interviews, specifically Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie. The Jets did what they always seem to be doing, and that's talking their team up and the other team down. Too bad this is the Patriots, who didn't offer any serious rebuttal to them (aside from Wes Welker cutting a few feet jokes at Rex Ryan). With all of the Jets trash talking they've done this week, if they don't even show up, they'll look like as big of morons as you can be. The Jets put a lot more pressure on themselves to step their game up then what was already there, and they did so by also pissing off Belichick and Brady, which is never a smart thing.
For the Jets to win, they have to go back to the gameplan that they had in the 2nd half of the Colts game, and thats run, run, and run some more. Mark Sanchez hasn't been that great both late in the season and in cold weather conditions, so LT and Shonn Greene will need to carry the load for a few long TD drives. If they can have a few nice long TD drives like they did last week, their chances of winning increase exponentially. The longer their drives are, the less time Brady can spend on the field. A problem for them is, the Pats run defense is much better then the Colts was (but who isn't better then the Colts run defense?) and should do a better job at containing the duo enough to limit the damage.
For the Pats, just keep on trucking. If they play the way they have for the past 8 weeks, the Jets don't stand much of a chance. Brady is playing his best ball right now, at the right time, and he also has a nice balance with Ben-Danvis Greenwood-Ellishead (credit to Bill Simmons for this name; a combination of BJGE and Danny Woodheads names). The Patriots have more weapons then the Jets can handle, and it's Bill Belichick against Rex Ryan. You know who the better coach is. And another thing, I think that trash talking of the Jets will blow up in their face, because if there's one team who you probably shouldn't trash talk to, it's the Pats. I know the Jets are staying true to themselves and that's fine, but Antonio Cromartie sharing his 'thoughts' on Brady the week that he plays him might not be the smartest thing.
Prediction: The Pats have everything on their side, the homefield, motivation, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick. While I'm not expecting a 6 TD beatdown (although I'd love to see a replay of it), I don't see the Patriots falling here, not with as well as Brady is playing and as average at best Sanchez has been. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats were up 17 or so in the 4th and still tried to score to rub it in the Jets faces. That's just how they are. Theres one thing to be going against the Patriots, but there's another to go against a pissed off Patriots team. This may be better then the 18-1 team a few years back. They seem more focused and relaxed since they don't have the undefeated pressure on their backs. While it's not going to be a blowout, I do expect a double digit victory. Patriots 31, Jets 20.
When: 4:30 ET, Today
Where: Heinz Field
What Channel: CBS
Breakdown: The NFL's most heated rivalry kicks off our 2nd playoff weekend. This rivalry has been neck and neck dating back to 2003, with the Steelers leading the series since then 9-8, although the point differential between the two is equal at 305-305. This is the rubber match between the two teams, with the Ravens winning the first contest after a game winning TD pass to TJ Houshmanzadeh by Joe Flacco, and the Steelers winning the second game after a strip sack by Troy Polomalu, followed by the Steelers punching it in. These games are always tight, bitter contests, with the team that makes the biggest play at the latest part of the game pulling out the victory more often then not. It also helps that these two teams just plain don't like each other, something that can't be said for some 'rivalries' in the league. These are hard hitting contests, and in the cold Pittsburgh weather, I don't expect any less from either team.
For the Ravens to win this game, I think they have to attack the weaker part of the Steelers defense, which is their secondary. Joe Flacco, despite being flat out bad in some of his early postseason games, is coming off a huge game over the Chiefs and has some dangerous weapons with Boldin (who needs to get a lot of targets; these are the types of games they got him for) Houshmanzadeh, Heap, Derrick Mason, and even Dante Stallworth could stretch the field deep for them. The run defense of Pittsburgh is just too good for them to force 25-30 carries to Ray Rice and expect good things to happen, especially with the reports of him being sick. They should pass often, with using the run to catch the Steelers off guard, and try to take advantage whenever they have good field position. 17 points will more then likely win this game.
For the Steelers, I think its a little bit of the opposite. While 92 rushing yards per game is very good, I think there needs to be a focus on the run with Mendenhall, and then use the deep play action bombs to Mike Wallace at least a few times. The disparity between run and the pass have to be almost even, with a little more run to pass. Ben Roethlisberger has been able to make the clutch plays when needed to against the Ravens, and he'll have to keep that up if he wants to have a chance for his 3rd Super Bowl ring in his career.
Prediction: This has all of the makings for another classic in Heinz. If you wanna see a lot of points, I suggest you don't turn to this game. However, if you don't watch it, you may be missing out on what has the potential to be the best game of the playoffs. This is going to be a hard hitting nailbiter. The team that makes the last play will win, just as how it is always in this series. I love watching these games. It's what the NFL is all about. Steelers 14, Ravens 10.
When: 8:00 ET, Tonight
Where: Georgia Dome
What Channel: FOX
Breakdown: This game is being dubbed as the 'unofficial' NFC Championship game because it's clear that these are the two best teams in the NFC. It's almost unfair to the Falcons because they're forced to go against the 6 seed Packers, while the Bears, the number 2 seed, have Seattle, a heavy underdog. But, you have to beat who you're dealt against, and I know the Falcons won't be complaining about this matchup, because they do still have the ultimate equalizer, the Georgia Dome, on their side. Matt Ryan has the best home record among active QB's, with a nice 20-2 mark. He's at his best at home, and will hope to give this team, that has high expectations, a shot in the NFC Championship game for the first time since the Michael Vick days.
For the Packers, I see the key of the game being James Starks, the 6th round rookie out of Buffalo. He had a huge game against the Eagles, and to maintain some balance and keep the Packers from being one dimensional, he's going to have to get some big runs and first downs. While Atlanta's run defense is their strong point, if Starks can have a 70, 80 yard rushing game that would be a success for the Packers. Rodgers will have to throw a lot for them to win, but the run game could be the hidden key for the Packers to try and walk out of the Georgia Dome with an NFC Championship berth.
For the Falcons, it's all on QB Matt Ryan. We know how good he has been in the regular season, but this is only his 2nd career postseason start, and in his first one, he wasn't all that impressive in a Wild Card loss to the Arizona Cardinals in 2009. While he's now 2 years older and 2 years better, and does have the home field advantage in his favor, it's going to be interesting to see if he can do what he does best, and that's get a game winning score late in the game. He'll need some help from Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, along with a solid running game by Michael Turner, but it's on Ryan's shoulders in this one.
Prediction: While Green Bay was my preseason pick to go the Super Bowl, it's tough going against a home Falcons team. This game, like the one they played back in the middle of the season, will come down to a last second big play (just like the first game of the weekend). Do I have enough faith to pick a 3rd year QB, even if he's as good as he is at home? No. Packers 30, Falcons 23.
When: 1:00 ET, Tommorow
Where: Soldier Field
What Channel: FOX
Breakdown: Many people, including yours truly, were shocked to see the Seahawks play so well last week against the defending Super Bowl champions after losing to them during the season badly and just not being that good of a team at all this year, despite winning their division. Their offense played much better then anyone could have imagined, and the game clinching TD run by Marshawn Lynch was one of the greatest runs in playoff history. However, now the Seahawks will have to go on the road to try and win at cold Soldier Field to advance to the NFC Championship game. Do we need a reminder of the Seahawks last 3 road playoff games, which happened against the Packers, Bears, and Packers, respectively? Hmmm...
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Granted, this team, save for a few players, but you know that aura of those road playoff games is still there. The key for the Seahawks has to be their entire defense. With all due respect to the Saints, the Bears D is much more better then theirs with Julius Peppers heading the D-Line and Brian Urlacher leading the LBs. They are going to have to do their best in holding Jay Cutler down, who has played much better since their meeting in Week 6. A few timely turnovers would also help, and Matt Hasselbeck has to play just as good on the offensive side to give them a punchers chance.
For the Bears, its simply do what you have to do offensively, and that's give the rock to Matt Forte, who's gotten more attention rushing out of the backfield then you would expect from a Mike Martz offensive system. The longer the Seahawks stay in the game, the more confidence they get, which makes them more dangerous. Seattle knows they're the heavy underdog, so Chicago has to do what the Saints failed to do last week, get up early, and just sit on the lead. The Saints were up 10-0 in the 2nd quarter, but then let Hasselbeck go off. A Seattle team like this will be dangerous the longer they stay in the game.
Prediction: While I'm rooting for the Hawks to keep this crazy run going, I don't see them pulling out another upset. I don't see a blowout, but this is an early game for a West Coast team. Not a good recipe for success, to me. This could be either another exciting game, or be ugly early. Bears 24, Seahawks 13.
When: 4:30 ET, Tommorow
Where: Gillette Stadium
What Channel: CBS
Breakdown: In our final matchup of rematch weekend, the loudmouth New York Jets and New England Patriots will duel for their rubber match, like their AFC counterparts, but these two games weren't nearly as close as the Ravens/Steelers two games were (the Jets won the first contest 28-14, the Pats won the second 45-3). Despite that 45-3 thrashing only about 2 months ago, the Jets weren't backing down this week in the interviews, specifically Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie. The Jets did what they always seem to be doing, and that's talking their team up and the other team down. Too bad this is the Patriots, who didn't offer any serious rebuttal to them (aside from Wes Welker cutting a few feet jokes at Rex Ryan). With all of the Jets trash talking they've done this week, if they don't even show up, they'll look like as big of morons as you can be. The Jets put a lot more pressure on themselves to step their game up then what was already there, and they did so by also pissing off Belichick and Brady, which is never a smart thing.
For the Jets to win, they have to go back to the gameplan that they had in the 2nd half of the Colts game, and thats run, run, and run some more. Mark Sanchez hasn't been that great both late in the season and in cold weather conditions, so LT and Shonn Greene will need to carry the load for a few long TD drives. If they can have a few nice long TD drives like they did last week, their chances of winning increase exponentially. The longer their drives are, the less time Brady can spend on the field. A problem for them is, the Pats run defense is much better then the Colts was (but who isn't better then the Colts run defense?) and should do a better job at containing the duo enough to limit the damage.
For the Pats, just keep on trucking. If they play the way they have for the past 8 weeks, the Jets don't stand much of a chance. Brady is playing his best ball right now, at the right time, and he also has a nice balance with Ben-Danvis Greenwood-Ellishead (credit to Bill Simmons for this name; a combination of BJGE and Danny Woodheads names). The Patriots have more weapons then the Jets can handle, and it's Bill Belichick against Rex Ryan. You know who the better coach is. And another thing, I think that trash talking of the Jets will blow up in their face, because if there's one team who you probably shouldn't trash talk to, it's the Pats. I know the Jets are staying true to themselves and that's fine, but Antonio Cromartie sharing his 'thoughts' on Brady the week that he plays him might not be the smartest thing.
Prediction: The Pats have everything on their side, the homefield, motivation, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick. While I'm not expecting a 6 TD beatdown (although I'd love to see a replay of it), I don't see the Patriots falling here, not with as well as Brady is playing and as average at best Sanchez has been. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats were up 17 or so in the 4th and still tried to score to rub it in the Jets faces. That's just how they are. Theres one thing to be going against the Patriots, but there's another to go against a pissed off Patriots team. This may be better then the 18-1 team a few years back. They seem more focused and relaxed since they don't have the undefeated pressure on their backs. While it's not going to be a blowout, I do expect a double digit victory. Patriots 31, Jets 20.
