Well with MVP winning the US title tonight from Shelton, I've got to say, his chances to win the Money in the Bank just dropped significantly, and Shelton's just raised massively.
1) There's no reason to have MVP win the US title AND the Money in the Bank. That's a waste. You don't put everything in one basket.
2) We've already discussed at great length about how Kofi's not big enough for it yet, Kane and Finlay have no shot due to their age and status, Mark Henry wasn't even planned to be in the match so there's no chance he'll win it, CM Punk won it last year so it won't be a repeat, and that narrows it down to Christian, MVP, and Shelton.
3) Vince supposedly doesn't like Christian all that much. If that's true, I can't see them giving him a guaranteed world title in the future. The smartest option for them in my opinion would be to draft him to Smackdown or Raw and have him start some upper-midcard/lower-main event feuds to capitalize on his mic skills and his fresh return. I firmly believe that Christian was thrown into the MITB because they had nowhere else to put him and didn't want to leave him off the card.
4) Shelton just lost the US title, but he lost it to someone who is a trustworthy upper midcarder. If Shelton had lost it to someone like DJ Gabriel, you could fully assume that they've just given up on Shelton and made him lose to some jobber just for the hell of it. Shelton losing his championship to MVP is similar in nature to if Jericho would lose a championship to Cena. Its a loss, sure, but its not necessarily that drastic of a step down, as he didn't lose to someone lower than himself. Plus, Shelton would need the Money in the Bank more than MVP or Christian as they could challenge for a world title based on creating a feud from their mic skills as opposed to challenging from a McGuffin. I'm a Benjamin fan, but even the fans have to acknowledge that his mic skills pale in comparison to MVP and Christian.
5) As I and others have mentioned numerous times, so far the Money in the Bank has a pattern of winners. Heel, face, heel, face....so if they continue, a heel would win, and MVP and Christian are both faces. Shelton's a heel.
I've got to say, unless something odd happens in the mean time, like Shelton is booked next week to lose to Festus, then the most likely candidate to win the MITB this year is Shelton Benjamin.