RAW roster (and their chances at moving to Smackdown)
1.
The Miz – I find it highly unlikely that Miz will change rosters just as he’s reaching an ultra level of importance within the company. His hard work has paid off, and champ or not, after Wrestlemania, Miz will be glowing in his lime light and I don’t think Vince wants to jeopardize what they’ve been working towards. Ultimately, I think Miz has less than a 5% chance of joining Smackdown.
2.
Sheamus – I don’t know what kind of plans the company has in store for Sheamus, but I find it very likely that through a lack of “anything better” to do with him, we will probably see him make the switch post-Mania. There’s a new group of people over there for him to feud with, and if nothing else, it brings some more talent to Friday nights. 75% chance that Sheamus switches brands and moves to Smackdown.
3.
Eve – I think she’ll stay on Raw to continue working the angles with both Stratus and the newly signed Awesome Kong. There definitely IS a chance that she’ll be moved but really, it’s probably pretty weak. At the end of the day, there is only a 10% chance Eve is going to Smackdown.
4.
CM Punk – His reign as New Nexus leader will come to an end shortly after Wrestlemania, which will free him up to do something other than job to Orton. In this culmination, I find it likely that Punk will stay heel and ultimately stay on Raw as he carries himself as a more respectable villain than the rest of the cast, which is something the flagship show needs more than ever right now. After Mania, I think there is a solid 30% chance that he will move to Smackdown, but realistically, I believe we will continue to see him on Raw.
5.
Daniel Bryan – This move seems VERY likely since Bryan has had his time on Raw and hasn’t really made much of it. His in-ring talents are what made him famous, not his ring presence or mic work. Through a culmination of his hard work and lack of persona, I think we have a 90% chance of seeing Daniel Bryan on the Smackdown roster after Wrestlemania.
6.
David Otunga – I feel like Otunga is the only member of the Nexus who has any decent future prospects within the company, and because of that, he will probably move to Smackdown where poor booking and lack of momentum will bury his career. Sadly, I find this to be sad, but realistic. I say 80% chance Otunga switches brands.
7.
Dolph Ziggler – While the company could launch him into something decent that could re-land him on Smackdown, I think the writers aren’t that stupid. He just got a new lease on his career with his brand change and ultimately, I think the odds of them moving him back so soon are slim to none. 1% chance Dolph ends up back on Smackdown.
8.
Evan Bourne – Another example of the company not knowing where to fit him in. I think that because he’s so strong in the ring, but not so much on the mic, he’ll go the way of Daniel Bryan and follow him to Friday nights. His high flying talents will suit him well there, and as such, I believe he has a 90% chance of ditching Raw for Smackdown.
9.
Goldust – Because he’s in no main event situation and seems to happily glide under the radar, I don’t see him floating anywhere. A simple case of “head in the sand.” If you don’t notice he’s there, you can’t move him. Less than 5% chance that Cody’s older brother makes the switch.
10.
The Usos – Much like Goldust, they don’t do much and don’t see a lot of TV time. A roster change for either or both wouldn’t make any real difference, although the supplemental draft may claim them. Realistically though, only about an 8% chance they move rosters.
11.
John Cena – I don’t really feel that I need to go into a lot of detail, but I honestly think the long rumored heel turn will transpire through the Rock at Wrestlemania. This will make John the most important heel of the company. And where do important heels reside? Yes. Less than a 1% chance that the Yabba-Dabba-Bitch goes to Smackdown.
12.
John Morrison – Another clear cut case of great in-ring skill with no mic personality to back it up. It seems too obvious that Morrison moseys back to Smackdown, so for the sake of keeping things interesting, I think the writers will keep him where he’s at with all the new talent coming in to feud with. Alongside some NXT guys, a new tough enough winner and the draft, I think that there is less than a 2% chance that Morrison goes back to Smackdown.
13.
Mark Henry – Since he’s issued a statement that he’s preparing for retirement in about a year (give or take), I find it likely that the WWE will take their loyal Mr. Henry and keep him rummaging around the mid-roster of Raw until his days are over. At the end of the day, I wouldn’t expect more than a 5% chance of the big guy changing brands.
14.
Mason Ryan – Since he’s new to the scene and nobody really seems to be able to figure him out, I say he stays put. Not a huge reason for that remark, but really, I just feel he’s got about a 35% chance of moving to Smackdown.
15.
Michael McGillicutty – Hopefully he stays on Raw where he’ll drop the Nexus and pick up his dad’s gimmick. If Ted Dibiase can use his dad’s gimmick successfully, then why not do the same to Joe and even feud the two of them. But for that to happen, he’ll need to move to Smackdown. 50% chance Perfect Jr. makes the move.
16.
R-Truth – Probably hangs around since they don’t have a lot moving in his direction right now. Plus I see a fair number of Smackdown folk headed to Monday nights, so look for him to have someone new to feud with.
17.
Randy Orton – Because he’s only one of like…two faces the fans are behind right now, he’s almost definitely going to keep on keepin’ on with the rest of the Monday night crew. We’re looking at a less than 5% chance that the Rattlesnake switches sides.
18.
Santino – The only successful comic relief of the cast, Santino has a lot of people behind him. In fact, because he brings something important to the roster, I’m calling that Santino almost definitely stay on Raw with Orton. 3% chance that he up and leaves.
19.
Triple H – I don’t think triple H is moving anytime soon. For the most part, he won’t even be on active roster due to his backstage commitments and fatherhood. He’ll hang around, I’m sure, but he’s definitely not moving to Smackdown. I’ll go ahead and call a 1% chance that Hunter moves to Smackdown.
20.
Vladimir – Honestly, if for no other reason, I think the big guy stays on Raw because of Santino. They’re the ONLY over tag team, and the WWE desperately needs to keep the two together as long as possible. Vlad has less than 4% chance of going.
21.
Zack Ryder – A Smackdown move is both likely and necessary. Zack is too talented to not have on camera, and frankly, I’m annoyed that he’s so misused. But because he’s got talent and Raw has crapped all over him, Zack will probably head to the other brand to make himself a new home. 82% chance that Zack makes his home in Smackdown after Wrestlemania.
22.
Natalya – Will almost definitely stick to Monday nights. She’s one of only a couple relevant and talented Divas and as such, should stick around to feud with Awesome Kong. Could be some great matches within the Diva division after Mrs. Kong shows up, and because of that, I say there is a weak 2% chance that Natalya jumps ship in the draft.
23.
Vickie Guerrero – Just made the big jump with Dolph and is incredibly over as a solid heel manager. Vickie is staying around most definitely. Less than 1% chance that Eddie’s widow returns to Friday nights.
Smackdown roster (and their chances at moving to RAW)
1.
Edge – Because Edge is a top draw for the Friday night crew, look to see him keep his spot (and probably his title) after Wrestlemania. He’s probably going to end up in a sizable angle with Christian as either rivals (again) or more likely, give the fans what they want and reunite E&C for a period of time to drive up interest in the waning tag division. The duo could easily reignite the belts and cause a stir on the roster, and as such, I don’t see Edge having more than a 10% chance of moving to Raw.
2.
Kofi Kingston – Because of the likely Cena heel turn at Wrestlemania, I see Kofi moving back to the flagship to be pushed into a main event face. After all, pushing Kofi as a heel is difficult, and with a heavy heel roster over on Mondays, Kofi could leap in (pun intended) and become a top draw….even feuding with the ultra heel Cena. Ultimately, Kofi has an 88% chance of switching to Raw.
3.
Justin Gabriel – Smackdown’s very own Daniel Bryan (until they actually GET Daniel Bryan). Justin is super athletic and very talented between the ropes. I don’t think he’s going to move back to Monday’s again so soon, especially when he’s going to probably have a feud with the new face team of Edge & Christian. Realistically, Justin will stay on Smackdown and only has a 3% chance of running back to Raw.
4.
Heath Slater – Same exact deal as Justin Gabriel. Great talent, no mic skills and the ability to draw heat with Justin as tag champs. Only a 3% chance that the red headed step child goes back to Raw.
5.
Alberto Del Rio – As the biggest heel draw for Friday nights, I find it hard to believe that the WWE writers would serve him up as fodder to the Raw cast. If he did make the move, I think he’ll be utilized well, but really, Alberto belongs on Smackdown to help solidify his character before he eventually jumps ships to Monday Nights. At the end of the day, Alberto has only a 20% chance of moving to Raw.
6.
Beth Phoenix – As the only truly talented female cast member of Smack down, and a good front runner to fill an angle with Awesome Kong (who is probably coming to Raw), I’d say we can expect a 90% chance that the Glamazon hits the Monday night scene right after Mania.
7.
Big Show – Because Khali is likely staying on Raw, and Show seems to get a lot of love from the audience, I think the smart move is to leave him where he’s at. He’s only been there for a year anyways, and I really think he’s got some good people coming over to feud with. Big Show, I think you’ll be staying home on Smackdown and carrying only a 5% chance of making the move.
8.
Christian – I mentioned earlier that I think the WWE is finally taking requests. After Mania, it looks like Edge & Christian will be re-teaming to give some depth to the tag team wasteland. Simply put: There is only a 5% chance that Christian is moving back to Raw.
9.
Cody Rhodes – As a marketable heel and talented performer, I think we’re actually going to see Cody return home to Raw. There, he can capture the Intercontinental title and make a bee line for his brother, bring him back to the main camera, and ignite a “feud of the family” that may draw a large number of viewers. I’m hopeful for this, actually and realistically, the company can make it happen with minimal effort. I say there’s a 70% chance that Cody goes to Monday nights.
10.
Drew McIntyre – Drew was once rising towards the top of the heel ladder, but hit a road bump in the form of him being an asshole. Luckily, he has enough talent that he hasn’t been completely forgotten. Ultimately, with nowhere to run to, I think the staff will keep him around on Smackdown and as such, the angry Scotsman will likely have less than a 10% chance of moving to Raw.
11.
Zeke Jackson – As the only muscle player to hold down any heat with the Corre, I think the odds of Ahmed Johnson 2 going over to the flagship are slim to none. I would even say that he has less than a 2% chance of getting out of his Friday night contract. Hopefully they use him correctly though, as big Zeke could be an important mid-carder when used correctly.
12.
Jack Swagger – Honestly, I think we may be seeing a face turn for the All-American, American in his performance at Wrestlemania. And when he does, I’d like to see him move to Raw where he can feud with heel Cena. Sadly, I bet the writers keep him in his spot and try to push face Swagger as a true contender and end up feuding him with Wade Barrett. Either way, I’ll be happy to (finally) see a face Jack Swagger, despite his less than 40% chance of going to Raw.
13.
JTG – With no more Cryme Tyme, look for JTG to be wasted until he gets to the chopping block. The Titan staff have already announced that roster cuts will be happening post-Mania, and sadly, with nowhere else to stick this talented individual, JTG will likely go the way of his former partner. 0% chance he’s going to Raw. 95% chance he’s going home on April 5th.
14.
Kane – Since his feuds with Undertaker are essentially over, Kane will probably return to Raw to shake up the new situation with Cena, Miz and Rocky. When used correctly, Kane can really add to a story, but as it turns out, the writing staff usually doesn’t know what to do with him. This is part of the reason he has a 65% chance of going to Raw, and finally getting away from Taker again.
15.
Rey Mysterio – Because of his stature on the show and a lack of main event spots on Raw, I say Rey continues his Smackdown run. He’ll have people like Evan Bourne and Daniel Bryan coming in and that trio can make a lot of the situation. And even better, I truly believe that the writers know this and will take advantage of it. I see a 12% chance that Mysterio moves to Raw after Wrestlemania.
16.
Undertaker – Since he’s the biggest draw for the brand, and the only big veteran still hanging around the locker room there, I can’t find any reason Vince would want to change his situation. After all, the upper management still try and extract as many ratings as possible from the Smackdown brand, and despite not having the in-ring skills that the youthful roster possess, he brings the “star power” that Friday nights need to have around in order to successfully draw. At the end of the day, Smackdown needs him and as such, he has less than a 2% chance of switching sides.
17.
Wade Barrett – Since he moved so recently, I find it hard to believe that the powers-that-be would shove him back so fast. He can make a bigger impact on Smackdown, and I feel that the move of Evan Bourne could play into Wade’s future well. I know I would LOVE to see a feud between the two, and really, that’s what good feuds are about. The LOVE. Anyhow, Wade has a small chance of being moved, because if ANY of the recently changed Corre guys were to be thrown back into the Monday night fires, it would be Barrett. In the end, however, Wade only has a 10% chance of going back to the Nexus foray on Raw.
The rest of the roster is unimportant and as such can go either way (50/50). Many of them could be looted in the supplemental draft or because they’re THAT unimportant, will stay right where they are.
Sorry for such a long-winded read out, but I felt a little effort needed to be put into this one.
