Orton was running as my pick, so I've got to start over now. I'm thinking from the perspective that Cena will not be holding the title going into WrestleMania 28, so both Raw and SmackDown will need challengers. The question of just who is champion going into WrestleMania on both the red and blue brand affects who is going to win this. I envision Punk retaining through to Mania, but Bryan is a little more of a question mark. He seems like an excellent candidate to lose the title in the Elimination Chamber to facilitate a more establish name holding the title at Mania. However, the question is...who, really? Henry's hurt, Big Show doesn't really make sense, Rhodes and Barrett are as much a risk as Bryan is. Will Christian be healthy? Is Sheamus a safe bet, after being treated like a midcard attraction all year? They may have to go with a shock decision and move someone from Raw a la Edge's jump back in 2009. Is there anyone there? Jericho? Kane? Miz? HHH? I don't know that any of those are particularly attractive options. The WWE doesn't have many other attractive options other than to keep Bryan as WHC going into Mania, so I have to stick with that.
With the idea that Punk and Bryan are going to be champions going into WrestleMania, the safe bet on the Royal Rumble winner this year is a heel. I'm thinking likely candidates are Jericho, Christian, Ziggler, Rhodes, or Barrett. I'll break them down ahead.
Chris Jericho - Obviously, this is an up in the air choice, since no one has any real idea what the hell Jericho is up to right now. One feels he's turning heel sooner or later, so he fits that criteria. I can't help but feel he'll be a challenger for Punk at Mania via the more traditional method - calling him out, building a feud, traditional face/heel stuff, so on, so forth. Still, it's not worth ruling out a Royal Rumble victory for Jericho and challenging Punk that way - or surprising everyone and challenging Bryan for some reason. Which wouldn't be a horrible way to add star power to the SmackDown title match.
Christian - Christian is supposed to be back no later than February, and the WWE has a history of bringing guys back a few weeks ahead of schedule to make a Rumble return. This would set up a great SmackDown main event at Mania that's really logical. Christian is all about the world title, and a Rumble victory makes tons of sense for him. It doesn't require shuffling anyone across brands, and everyone in the WWE must recognize that Bryan and Christian can put together a great match.
Dolph Ziggler - The problem here is that Ziggler is already challenging CM Punk the same night. Now, this doesn't preclude him from participating in the Rumble - assuming he loses the title match, which isn't as foregone a conclusion as it may seem - but it does almost certainly precludes Punk vs Ziggler at Mania. A Ziggler Rumble victory would almost necessitate that he challenges Bryan at Mania, which is a decent idea. Ziggler's stock is rising fast and he makes an attractive challenger for the blue brand. They almost certainly need to restock SmackDown at some point, and shipping Ziggler over with a title victory gives them a chance to get started before the draft. I'm not sure it's the best choice, but it's an option.
Cody Rhodes - It seems like they're building in a different direction for Rhodes, and he's already wrestled Bryan an awful lot on TV, which makes this seem like a long shot. At the same time, Rhodes is pegged by many as a man likely to win a world championship in 2012. I don't think here is where he's likely to do it, but stranger things have happened.
Wade Barrett - A good chance here for Barrett. He's being built like a machine lately, tearing Orton apart and generally kicking ass left and right. He certainly seems like a guy being built up to win the Rumble. There's little doubt in most reasonable peoples' minds that Barrett is a likely candidate to win his first world title in 2012, and it sure seems like now is his time to do it, as he rapidly becomes the top heel on SmackDown.
Working through this, it seems to me that Christian and Wade Barrett are the best shots this year to win the Rumble. I give Ziggler middling odds, with Rhodes and Jericho as outside shots.
I'm probably entirely wrong and it will be someone absurd like R-Truth, but what can you do?