I was discussing the chances Dolph Ziggler has at winning the World Heavyweight Championship at Mania with LSN in PM earlier, and I made such a compelling argument against it (or at least I think I did), that I figured I'd post it here.
So there are two major reasons why I don't think Ziggler beats Edge at the Rumble. The idea of Ziggler winning is intriguing as he can drop the belt at EC and two new, more seasoned/famous wrestlers can feud over the belt until Mania, but that's actually a fairly unattractive option for two major reasons.
We can all agree that the WWE does not seem to want Ziggler to main even Mania. It has nothing to do with his skill level, he's just not a big enough name. If he wins the belt at the Rumble and drops it at EC, that only gives the WWE a little over a month to develop a title feud for Mania. Now plenty has been done in less time in the WWE, but as they say, this is Wrestlemania! The WWE is going to make sure whatever main event feud they have is going to be red hot, and having a little over a month to push a feud between a new champion (from EC) and a new challenger (not the former champ) is not conducive to making that feud as intense as they'd like it to be.
Secondly, and I suppose this is personal belief, but I think that Money in the Bank briefcase already as Dolph Ziggler's name on it. There is only one other person I can see winning the briefcase this year (John Morrison), but we all know that MitB is a great springboard for midcard heels that launches them into the mainevent with fairly solid success. Now yes, having Ziggler win the title at the Rumble and dropping it at EC still allows him to win MitB, but it will make his cash in a little less special since it won't be for his first WWE/World Heavyweight Championship. The reason Miz's cash in was so epic was because it was for his first World Title. In fact, every Money in the Bank winner (save Mr. Kennedy) cashed in the briefcase for their first World Championship.
So I hope I didn't ruin any suspense that the WHC match had for you going into the Rumble, but I think it's extremely unlikely that Dolph gets the belt. I don't know how Edge is going to win, maybe he's going to knock out the referee and then spear Ziggler to avoid the DQ, or maybe he'll bring the Edgecution back as his finisher (which would be awesome, I love that move), but I think he finds a way to win. After all, he's the ultimate opportunist! If any guy in the WWE can find a way to win without using his finisher, it's Edge.