The Royal Rumble has lost its unpredictability. But when was it ever unpredictable?

[Hulk Hogan's Brother]

Wrestling fans often complain how the Royal Rumble has lost its lustre and is not as unpredictable as it used to be. I think that is more of a myth than a true fact.

This myth is itself a result of the concept of the match itself and the first four Royal Rumbles. In a Royal Rumble match each wrestler has a 1/30 chance of winning. Kayfabe wise, it makes it impossible to predict.

As we know, in the first four Royal Rumbles the winners did not get a WrestleMania title shot. It was merely a spectacle match around which a PPV was based. That is why WWF could book almost anyone to book the Rumble and that is what they did the first two times by giving the victory to Jim Duggan and Big John Studd respectively. Very often the first impression is the last impression and the result of these two Rumbles might have contributed to the myth that the Rumble is unpredictable.

So, why don't I feel that the Rumble is unpredictable? Simply because there have been very few unpredictable Rumbles after 1992. 1999 was a genuine surprise with Vince winning it but it was typical Russo booking: a surprise for the sake of a surprise. Going into this Rumble most people assumed that Rock vs Austin would be the main event of Mania 15 and that is what eventually happened. Vince's victory made no impact whatsoever.

As far as the other so called unpredictable Rumbles go, I do not think they are so unpredictable either. The Rumble has never served as the starting point for pushing a guy and if a guy was being pushed heavily you could very easily write him down as the winner of the next Royal Rumble. That is what happened in 1993 with Yokozuna, in 1994 with Hart and Luger and in 1995 with HBK. They were all being pushed very heavily prior to those Rumbles and so it was not a surprise that they won

This has been the trend for most Rumbles barring 2002, 2008 and 2010 where the Rumble was used to promote a returning superstar. So that is why I feel that the Rumble has never been predictable barring the Vince Mcmahon victory which was, as I said, a surprise for the sake of a surprise. Also it must be noted that I am not saying that the Rumble is not as good as it is perceived to be. All I am saying is that its unpredictability is a myth.

 

[mrbrownstone]

I think it really all depends on the year, some years like in 1999 as you mentioned the winner is a true shock, and there are other years like in 2009 where the winner is painfully obvious. It really depends on how the WWE builds the Rumble, in 2009 the entire build towards the Royal Rumble match was centred around Randy Orton which made it all but a given that he was going to win.

This isn't always the case though, last year the WWE built up a few different people who had potential to win the Rumble in Cena, HBK, HHH and Batista, then they discounted all of that and Edge made his surprise return to win the Rumble, sure a lot of people saw Edge coming back but by WWE building a guy like HBK as such a strong contender to win it put doubt in peoples minds.

The WWE is doing the same thing this year, there is always the potential that someone like HHH or Chris Jericho will make their triumphant returns but by the WWE building up other guys like Alberto and Punk there is a bit of doubt over who the winner will be.

I also think you are forgetting something when you say 1999 was the only truly surprising win. What about 2008? Absolutely no one in their right mind predicted that John Cena would be coming back so early, they even surprised the mother of all smark crowds in MSG and when you do that you know you have managed a real shock.

So yeah, it all depends on the way the WWE builds the Rumble match up. If they focus solely on one person in the build up as they did in 2009 then there is no unpredictability. But if they focus on a couple of different people in the lead up then there will be doubt in peoples minds as to which one of them it will be.

 

[THTRobtaylor]

The problem is the predictability of the WWE/F machine, the WM main event was always set by the Rumble, the Summerslam by KOTR... More recently Money In The Bank has taken the unpredictable role...

The Rumble itself is still a valuable match as it is an "endurance" test... can a main eventer work with most of the roster, for an extended period of time in the ring?... The best part of the Rumble was always the "surprise entrants" when people from the past would randomly return for a spot... It was always good to see a Haku or others return... Cena's random return kinda killed it tho... as now it's almost expected there will be a shock return every year... this year most likely Christian...

In the 90's there were some shock wins... few saw Yokozuna as the winner before the Rumble.. few saw the double elimination in 94...

But on the whole, the Rumble is just the first step on the Road to Wrestlemania's main event and there are only ever going to be a few people each year who could realistically step up to that spot... MITB is where they can take risks on someone like Thwagger or Miz...

 

[mdj2010]

I'll discount my opinion on the first several years, as I was simply too young to read into the booking and therefore was always surprised (to some extent anywy) by the outcome of the Rumble. However there have been some surprises for me since. Benoit winning from the #1 spot in 2004 was a surprise, as were the wins for VKM and Rey Mysterio. I think the only way (other than booking a non main eventer into the WM spot) you could achieve a surprise nowadays is to have a debut wrestler win it. Imagine if Goldberg/ Lesnar or any other impact wrestler had debuted at the Rumble and won it, that would definately have even the smartest of marks totally marking out.
Personally I feel like the format is becoming tired, not the gimmick itself, but the format of the winner going on to Wrestlemania and the fact that the winner can then choose the brand they want to compete against just seems to water it down even further.
If I could have my way I would rather see one of the belts become vacated somehow and then lead up to the event with one of the most unpredicatable series of live TV shows ever, with mid carders getting involved with main eventers and completely opening up the unpredicatbility of the Rumble itself.
I know this will never happen, but unless HHH returns to make an impact on the Rumble then I would be amazed if it wasn't won by Cena or CM Punk. Personally I would finally allow Kane to win it, doesn't seem right that the most dominant man in the history of the gimmick will never win it.

 

[kingofkings01013]

This year is the first time in 10 years or so where we don't who is winning the rumble (except for maybe 09 but knowing an AT i knew Cena was due back no latter than Feb). First off the rumblie winner is a proven upper card. This year might, MIGHT, be different i hope so but Raw would have only 1 person that could win it in this spot and it is Morrison, SD has Alberto. Yes i know i left Cristian out but not because he is injured but because he has not got a really big push since coming back from TNA and the WWECW title does not count. Seamus will not win cause Triple H is returning and they will both cost each other the match. Orton will not win cause he is in a title match (i see possibly Jericho returning and costing him his title shot) for realistic winners we have.

Raw: Cena, Punk, Jericho
SD: Undertaker
Veteran that deserves it: Big Show and Kane
Mid cards that they pushing hard and could winning if WWE wants a shock: Morrison and Alberto

 

[JJ15776]

Of course it's a myth. Like I said in another thread, this forum is full of clowns that just love to rip the WWE, even if they have to disregard reality and make a fool out of themselves in the process. This is a result of that.

If anything, the Rumble is LESS predictable than ever. Anybody who claims they knew Edge or Cena was going to return and win is a lying moron. Most of the other WRESTLERS didn't even know Cena was going to return, FFS. There's no clear cut winner this year, either.

These tools are just using hindsight to look back and say, "Oh, I should've seen that coming, it must've been predictable!" Give me a break. And you know what? Sometimes predictability is a good thing. It means their storylines are making sense. Look back at the most shocking Rumble win - Vince. Guess what? That was also the DUMBEST Rumble win by far. Randy Orton, Batista, The Murderer...all were very predictable, and all made a lot of sense. It would've been stupid if they DIDN'T win.

Another myth is that the Royal Rumble has become a place where an injured guy always comes back and wins. It's happened TWICE - EVER. Yeah, it's been 2 of the last 3 years...but that hardly makes a trend. That doesn't mean Triple H or Jericho or Christian is going to do it this year. (and for those who think Triple H made a surprise return from injury in 02, his return was heavily hyped and took place 3 weeks before the Rumble, and he was clearly going to win.)

 

[Chadmw]

While the RR is still fairly unpredicatable (Benoit, Mysterio, Cena's return etc were all unpredicatable). At times unfortunately it is very predicatable for example when Orton won it a couple of years ago.

The times it becomes predictable is when the WWE tries to make a storyline centred around a couple of superstars going into the Rumbel. The worst was the year the Rock won by eliminating the Big show. For weeks going into the Rumble these were the only two you ever really heard from and they had a good feud going into the rumble, but the WWE made it so predicatble that the final two were going to come down to these two that it made the rumble very boring to watch that year

 

[The Ram]

Of course it's a myth. Like I said in another thread, this forum is full of clowns that just love to rip the WWE, even if they have to disregard reality and make a fool out of themselves in the process. This is a result of that.

If anything, the Rumble is LESS predictable than ever. Anybody who claims they knew Edge or Cena was going to return and win is a lying moron. Most of the other WRESTLERS didn't even know Cena was going to return, FFS. There's no clear cut winner this year, either.

These tools are just using hindsight to look back and say, "Oh, I should've seen that coming, it must've been predictable!" Give me a break. And you know what? Sometimes predictability is a good thing. It means their storylines are making sense. Look back at the most shocking Rumble win - Vince. Guess what? That was also the DUMBEST Rumble win by far. Randy Orton, Batista, The Murderer...all were very predictable, and all made a lot of sense. It would've been stupid if they DIDN'T win.

Another myth is that the Royal Rumble has become a place where an injured guy always comes back and wins. It's happened TWICE - EVER. Yeah, it's been 2 of the last 3 years...but that hardly makes a trend. That doesn't mean Triple H or Jericho or Christian is going to do it this year. (and for those who think Triple H made a surprise return from injury in 02, his return was heavily hyped and took place 3 weeks before the Rumble, and he was clearly going to win.)

I could honestly say that I knew edge was gonna win the rumble last year even with everybody else being hyped up. But I didn't know cena was returning. But besides the last two rumbles and a few I did not know who was gonna win. I didn't know Undertaker was gonna win in 07, I didn't know mysterio was gonna win 06, I didn't know batista was gonna win in 05 yeah he was one of the guys you could've easily predicted but cena could've won it too, I didn't know benoit was gonna win in 04 but I think you get the picture.

Now I wanna figure out who's gonna win this year because I have no idea. Possibly christian, triple h, or jericho could return. Morrison and del rio could be one of the rising stars who could win. Kane and Bigshow could be veterans who really deserve a win. CM Punk could use nexus too win or Wade could use his nexus on smackdown to win. That's alll I could predict right now but I can't narrow it down to one like I could in 09 and 2010. I'm really looking forward to see who wins the rumble this year.

 

[TC920]

I agree with mdj2010. The fact that we know so much about the business nowadays makes it predictable. When we were younger, thought it was real, it could've been anybody. But now, while we may not know exactly who it'll be, as JJ15776 pointed out, we know it's USUALLY gonna be a handful of certain people. Either someone who's already a main eventer is gonna take it, or the mid-carder who WWE's trying to get into the main event scene at the moment. While it may not be Cena, Rey, Big Show, etc who'll win it, I definitely won't go into this years thinking Mark Henry, Trent Baretta, or Santino have a chance. You always know it's only gonna be that certain handful of people who have a chance.

 

[DethMetal]

Ya know what ruined the Rumble? Age and Technology. I mean, we know who's injured, who's gonna return, and so forth. When I was a kid, and hopefully I speak for alot of people here, ya never had a clue as to what you were gonna witness. Now that we know so much, it's painfully obvious as to what will happen next.

 

[mral82]

Go back and watch 1989 rumble the way the then WWE Champ Randy Savage was eliminated and I think Shawn Michaels was slated to win as everybody seen the thing w/ Batista and HBK, I think Dave tried to help Shawn get back in the match but it failed and they made Edge win as a backup. That was the most shocking rumble thing i've ever seen so far.

 

[Million Dollar Dream]

The year it was unpredictable was the year Ric Flair won the rumble over Hogan. Hogan had been the winner of the two previous Rumbles I thought a 3rd was in the bag until Sid eliminated him. It made for a great post Rumble interview too... When Flair said "With a tear in my eye, this is the greatest moment of my life"... The Lex Luger and Bret Hart double win was pretty surprising finish also.