Hmm hmm hmm. An interesting predicament.
I think the first relevant question with regard to whether John Cena can really come out of this match in a positive light is whether or not he can really turn heel. And I wonder about whether he can do that. It's the best move artistically, to be sure, but can he do it from a business standpoint, or from a PR standpoint? What happens if John Cena turn heel, is the logical next question. Are people coming to live events, ordering PPVs, watching television, buying merchandise to see a face John Cena? Intuition says yes, although without access to data that I presume is only in the hands of WWE's marketing team, I can't say for sure. But it seems logical that, in a big way, John Cena and his current gimmick are what is anchoring the WWE right now. With him as a heel, do you have that same anchor?
Arguably, to an extent, a heel draws as much as a face does, although for some reason most people don't look at this side of the equation. Take, for example, back in the day when Mr. Perfect was being considered as a main event challenger to feud with Hulk Hogan. Hogan was an enormous draw in his day, but when pitted against Mr. Perfect, house show sales tanked. This is proof positive that a great face cannot draw alone. In the same vein, it is not necessary to book around great faces as the WWE has done for almost its entire existence in the modern era. WCW was incredibly successful by booking around great heels - not only the nWo, most obviously, but Ric Flair and the Four Horsemen to boot.
What I'm getting at here is this - the WWE's goal is to sustain ratings and sales. They've accomplished this goal for the last several years by making Cena the solid, anchored face, and pitting heels of various ability against him. It's been a decent enough business model, it seems, although most metrics of success for the WWE have declined over the same time frame - likely nothing to do with Cena, and more to do with the fact that wrestling as an entity stopped being cool and the rise of the UFC. I posit this - the WWE could be just as successful as they are now, but potentially more or less so, by turning John Cena heel. The basic scenario would be John Cena becoming a big time heel a la Hulk Hogan 1997 and booking a new breed of scrappy young faces to win over the hearts of the children and women everywhere to slay the beast. One could reasonably expect this business model to do well. One might even dare hope that it could catch fire as the nWo did, and improve the WWE's business overall. One might also fear that no face could rise to the occasion, the women and children would tune out, and business would falter. Still, I think I've made the point reasonably well - the WWE could feasibly succeed from a business standpoint if John Cena were a heel.
Now, with that out of the way, let's address the WrestleMania match. You want John Cena to come out on top? I'll try my best.
John Cena should win after a hard fought contest. Build the match to guarantee Miami is booing him as hard as they bood him when he wrestled Punk in Chicago. Well, as close as you can get to that, anyway. After putting Rocky down with the final AA, begin the closing sequence, which is very important. Cena offers Rocky a handshake. Rocky looks at it. He does the "You can't see me" and turns his back to pose for the crowd. Sell it like Cena's pissed and is about to attack, but he drops it at the last moment. He retreats. Rocky celebrates in front of Miami. Cena's watching from the ramp. Rock is soaking it in. Cena can't take it. He charges the ring. He goes to town on Rocky. And then he takes it up a notch. He destroys him. He murders him (metaphorically). He leaves him lying in a pool of blood. The closing shot of WrestleMania 28 is this - John Cena, with a steel chair in hand, standing over a bloodied and unconscious Rock.
IC, you argue that the IWC will complain that they saw it coming. But I don't know that anyone would see that coming. And even if they did, would it matter? Would it really make it less awesome to see that play out? Artistically, I think this would be a great close to WM 28. From a business standpoint, I think its a low risk/low reward scenario for the WWE. The thing is, I think it's premature. In 3 years, John Cena will be in a very different position than he is now. As it stands, he's still on top of the game and in his prime. Does it make sense to turn Cena now? Not really, no, but it could be done probably without really changing how much business the WWE is doing.
My answer, in short, to IC, is this - yes, there is a scenario in which John Cena can profit from his match with the Rock. He wins clean, is overcome by disrespect, and turns heel with a brutal attack on the Rock. A small minority of the audience will bitch and moan - they always will - but overall, it would be a brilliant angle artistically and at least a break even business decision.
End of the day - it could work.
I think the first relevant question with regard to whether John Cena can really come out of this match in a positive light is whether or not he can really turn heel. And I wonder about whether he can do that. It's the best move artistically, to be sure, but can he do it from a business standpoint, or from a PR standpoint? What happens if John Cena turn heel, is the logical next question. Are people coming to live events, ordering PPVs, watching television, buying merchandise to see a face John Cena? Intuition says yes, although without access to data that I presume is only in the hands of WWE's marketing team, I can't say for sure. But it seems logical that, in a big way, John Cena and his current gimmick are what is anchoring the WWE right now. With him as a heel, do you have that same anchor?
Arguably, to an extent, a heel draws as much as a face does, although for some reason most people don't look at this side of the equation. Take, for example, back in the day when Mr. Perfect was being considered as a main event challenger to feud with Hulk Hogan. Hogan was an enormous draw in his day, but when pitted against Mr. Perfect, house show sales tanked. This is proof positive that a great face cannot draw alone. In the same vein, it is not necessary to book around great faces as the WWE has done for almost its entire existence in the modern era. WCW was incredibly successful by booking around great heels - not only the nWo, most obviously, but Ric Flair and the Four Horsemen to boot.
What I'm getting at here is this - the WWE's goal is to sustain ratings and sales. They've accomplished this goal for the last several years by making Cena the solid, anchored face, and pitting heels of various ability against him. It's been a decent enough business model, it seems, although most metrics of success for the WWE have declined over the same time frame - likely nothing to do with Cena, and more to do with the fact that wrestling as an entity stopped being cool and the rise of the UFC. I posit this - the WWE could be just as successful as they are now, but potentially more or less so, by turning John Cena heel. The basic scenario would be John Cena becoming a big time heel a la Hulk Hogan 1997 and booking a new breed of scrappy young faces to win over the hearts of the children and women everywhere to slay the beast. One could reasonably expect this business model to do well. One might even dare hope that it could catch fire as the nWo did, and improve the WWE's business overall. One might also fear that no face could rise to the occasion, the women and children would tune out, and business would falter. Still, I think I've made the point reasonably well - the WWE could feasibly succeed from a business standpoint if John Cena were a heel.
Now, with that out of the way, let's address the WrestleMania match. You want John Cena to come out on top? I'll try my best.
John Cena should win after a hard fought contest. Build the match to guarantee Miami is booing him as hard as they bood him when he wrestled Punk in Chicago. Well, as close as you can get to that, anyway. After putting Rocky down with the final AA, begin the closing sequence, which is very important. Cena offers Rocky a handshake. Rocky looks at it. He does the "You can't see me" and turns his back to pose for the crowd. Sell it like Cena's pissed and is about to attack, but he drops it at the last moment. He retreats. Rocky celebrates in front of Miami. Cena's watching from the ramp. Rock is soaking it in. Cena can't take it. He charges the ring. He goes to town on Rocky. And then he takes it up a notch. He destroys him. He murders him (metaphorically). He leaves him lying in a pool of blood. The closing shot of WrestleMania 28 is this - John Cena, with a steel chair in hand, standing over a bloodied and unconscious Rock.
IC, you argue that the IWC will complain that they saw it coming. But I don't know that anyone would see that coming. And even if they did, would it matter? Would it really make it less awesome to see that play out? Artistically, I think this would be a great close to WM 28. From a business standpoint, I think its a low risk/low reward scenario for the WWE. The thing is, I think it's premature. In 3 years, John Cena will be in a very different position than he is now. As it stands, he's still on top of the game and in his prime. Does it make sense to turn Cena now? Not really, no, but it could be done probably without really changing how much business the WWE is doing.
My answer, in short, to IC, is this - yes, there is a scenario in which John Cena can profit from his match with the Rock. He wins clean, is overcome by disrespect, and turns heel with a brutal attack on the Rock. A small minority of the audience will bitch and moan - they always will - but overall, it would be a brilliant angle artistically and at least a break even business decision.
End of the day - it could work.