Excerpt from my full prediction blog (link's in my profile):
WHAT ENTRY NUMBER WILL WIN?
When you run the statistics, entries 0-10 have had 7 total wins, entries 11-19 have only had 2, and entries 20-30 have had 14 total wins. The average comes out to 18.2, and if you just do the average for the past 5 years it is 19.6, however one of those was Hacksaw Jim Duggan during the first Royal Rumble. Now, on this event, there were only 20 competitors instead of 30, so this means Duggan's #13 spot, when adjusted for inflation, is really the equivalent of the #19.5, which obviously rounds up to 20. That means there's only ONE legitimate case of someone winning in the 11-19 range - HBK, at #18, which is still pushing it to the limit. Thus, you can conclude that there's between a 4 and 8 (ie, 6) percent chance that someone wins from this section. Still, within the past five winners, we've seen two from #30, one from #28, one from #8, and one from #2, which pretty much guarantees that the winner will not be 1-10 or 28-30 this year. Couple all these factors in together, along with how #27 has been given the distinction of the most winners, and you've got a projected winning spot between 17 and 26.
IN WHAT ORDER WILL THEY COME OUT?
Now, this is pretty much a shot in the dark, but after running a few comparisons, I'm going to guess that this is how the Royal Rumble will go. If I'm right, someone owes me a steak dinner lol. The way I see it:
1) Evan Bourne, 2) Drew McIntyre, 3) Zack Ryder, 4) Chris Masters, 5) John Cena, 6) Cody Rhodes, 7) John Morrison, 8) CM Punk, 9) Chavo Guerrero, 10) Jack Swagger, 11) Shawn Michaels, 12) Chris Jericho, 13) Finlay, 14) Kane, 15) William Regal, 16) Ted DiBiase, 17) Matt Hardy, 18) Triple H, 19) R-Truth, 20) Big Show, 21) Dolph Ziggler, 22) MVP, 23) Batista, 24) Khali, 25) Shelton Benjamin, 26) The Miz, 27) Yoshi Tatsu, 28) Carlito, 29) Mark Henry, 30) Kofi Kingston
Why this order? Well, for one thing, there are patterns. For instance, the first two entries aren't going to be two heels, usually it's a face for #1 and a heel for #2. Entry #30 is always someone important. They like to group people where their current enemy is close to them, so that would explain the McIntyre/Morrison and MVP/Miz spots in relation to one another. The fifth entry is normally someone who can make a splash. There's almost always a "big man" in the last three spots, and he's usually preceded by at least two people that don't matter that much. I'm not going to bog you down in too many more details about this, as I could be completely off 100%. One little change effectively alters this entire list, so I'm not expecting to get any of them correct lol.
RANDOM PREDICTIONS
* If they book something to be "funny", it'll involve Hornswoggle. Though rest assured, it won't be funny.
* Zack Ryder will be the quick douchebag elimination. They did it last year with Kendrick and Ziggler, they've done it with the Miz in the past, etc. Basically, it's when someone has a grand total of like 2 minutes tops.
* If DiBiase costs Orton his match against Sheamus, rest assured DiBiase will be eliminated because of something Orton does
* I don't think there will be a shocker in terms of entrants this year. Edge returning wouldn't make much sense as he could rest more and return at a later date and still have his match with Jericho. He won't win the Royal Rumble if he returns anyway. Booker T says he's not under contract. RVD...they did that last year. I'm just hoping they don't add Hornswoggle into it.
* John Cena or Triple H gets the most amount of eliminations. Easily. You know those two.
* Batista will be eliminated by John Cena. This will spark a feud between the two.
* The allies turning on each other to watch are Rhodes and DiBiase or Jericho and Big Show.
* If Drew McIntyre is in it, he'll most likely last a very long time and eliminate someone important. I'm really suspecting that he'll eliminate Kane, for some reason.
* If you're looking for Chris Masters, Yoshi Tatsu, Evan Bourne, Zack Ryder, William Regal, or Carlito to get in pretty much any offense...you'll be sadly disappointed. These guys will be amongst the "Royal Rumble Rejects" this year and are not going to make a splash whatsoever.
* Michael Cole will not only say "vintage" a hundred or so times, but also "in his own right" and "shades of". The three will be so frequent that making a drinking game out of it is not recommended.
THE POTENTIAL WINNERS AND CIRCUMSTANCES
There's only a few people that have the slightest chance of winning this year. It isn't as clear as it was last year, but there's no real question that there's a short list. In no particular order...
1) Triple H - Obviously he either wins, is the last person eliminated, or is at least in the final four. The guy is never going to take a step backwards and let someone else take some of the spotlight. With the HHH vs Sheamus rumors, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him win, but he may just challenge him without winning the Royal Rumble. Either way, if we have HHH vs Sheamus and it's for a title, I'm going to be disgusted and it will ruin my WrestleMania.
2) HBK - They're teasing the match he'll have against the Undertaker. For some reason, I just don't feel it. I think it's a swerve. Why would they do it twice in a row, especially for a world title, knowing that HBK can't beat Taker's streak and that they'll both be taking time off afterwards? One rumor says that they may have Triple H and Michaels "tie" and both win, but I don't think that will happen either. That seems too much like a false flag. My guess is that HBK doesn't win it, or if he does, he'll be facing Triple H at WrestleMania, not the Undertaker, as Undertaker will drop the title to Jericho in the Elimination Chamber and Sheamus will drop the title to HHH as well.
3) DiBiase - If Orton doesn't win the title, then you can bet your ass DiBiase doesn't win this. If Orton does win the title, you can bet your ass DiBiase has a 75% chance of winning this. It all depends on that. Right now, though, I'd say because of the HHH/Sheamus bullshit, DiBiase is the third most likely winner by a VERY long distance behind Triple H.
PREDICTION: Triple H will, unfortunately, convince everyone that him being on top of the world again is the best decision. They'll all listen like sheep and he'll win and beat Sheamus at WrestleMania while the commentators go on and on and on about how Sheamus is so powerful but the Game is the best in the world and we should all suck his cock.