I think we can rule Ambrose out. He holds the US title and unless the Shield interferes, Ambrose will be taken up by the US title.
How can you rule out the guy who's been part of the hottest act in the WWE for over the past 6 months? In fact, RVD held both the U.S. Championhip and the MITB at the same time, and Miz WAS U.S. Champion when he won MITB if you want a more recent example.
In fact, I think the heavy favorite here
has to be Ambrose. Why? Because of the factor you mentioned, which is the Shield. So unless the Shield are banned from interfering for some reason, which would be absurd given the nature of the rules, I think Ambrose wins this because the Shield interfere. This is a situation, of course, that could cause plenty of tension between Ambrose and his Shield cohorts, but they don't need to rush it. Ambrose, having a year to "cash-it-in" could delay until the last minute, perhaps even MITB next year, for Ambrose to win and become World Champion. This shouldn't be a group that stays together forever, but while they are, which should be at least a year, they should continue to show the same cohesiveness they have in times past, which wouldn't theoretically bode well the other 6 members of the match. To me, he seems like the obvious favorite, and perhaps, too much of one. Still, if I were a betting man, I'd go with
Dean Ambrose.
Cody Rhodes: Since he and Sandow have 're-united', he's done little more then play second fiddle to Sandow. Sandow's gotten the featured feud with Sheamus, while Rhodes has been the sacrificial lamb both in single's and tag team matches. I don't want to say that WWE has given up on Cody, but I don't believe they see him as a future World Champion either. He may be the least likely of the candidates, for me.
Fandango: While the gimmick is a fun one, it's a gimmick, not a wrestler. I like Fandango, and the former Johnny Curtis is a good wrestler and really sells you on his gimmick. Unfortunately for him, I can't imagine this gimmick winning a World Title anymore then I can see Zach Ryder doing so. I like his aggressiveness and suppose he could pull off the upset, but I wonder if he'll even be cleared in two weeks.
Jack Swagger: Here's a guy, if you believe reports, that was supposed to win the World Heavyweight Championship from from Alberto Del Rio at Wrestlemania. Sure, this could be his second chance, but I don't recall the last time Swagger's even been on TV. Of course, I was shocked when he won the first time, but he's really been pushed aside, even by Zeb Colter, for Antonio Cesaro.
Damien Sandow: He's receiving a bigger push, for sure, but he can't get a win regardless of the single's match on Sheamus. Before he were to win something like this, he would need to be re-built in a major way. While he's a seemingly better choice then Fandango, there are many aspects that still scream 'comedy character' which makes it harder for me to buy into him as a serious candidate.
Antonio Cesaro: The yodeling is gone, and he's now joined the last man in Zeb Colter to lead someone to a championship match. Hes not exactly a beacon of consistency in terms of getting on TV, but the time he's gotten recently has been productive. He's my dark horse.
Wade Barrett: A solid second. He's had some poor luck with injuries and then seemingly fell into WWE's doghouse for some reason, but this would be a gret way to re-build him. He was more choice two years ago when Bryan won, and it almost feels like a lifetime ago that he was the hottest heel in the company. WWE is sorely lacking for top heels, and if given the chance, I think that's exactly what he can be.
Still, if I had money on it, I would bet on Ambrose. He's part of the hottest group in WWE right now, and said group is free to interfere based upon the match rules. Of course, if I were the other six, I'd join together first to put Ambrose and the Shield out of commission, then then go for the briefcase, but that's just me. With how high WWE seems to be on the Shield, and Ambrose in particular, he's my pick.
In order:
1. Ambrose
2. Barrett
3. Cesaro
4. Sandow
5. Swagger
6. Fandango
7. Rhodes