NCAA football starts on Thursday, and with me being the fan of football that I am, I decided to hold a prediction thread in here. I know there are pick 'em games online, but this thread will feature only 5 games college games a week (the 5 I, and Vegas, believe will be the most intriguing). This games WILL be picked with the spread on them, so for those of you unfamiliar with how the spread works, I'll give you an example.
Example: Syracuse is 6 1/2 favorites this week over Wake Forest. So say you pick Syracuse and they win 27-20, they'll have 'covered' the spread and your pick will be right. However, should Syracuse win 24-21 or even lose, then they will have not covered and you will be wrong.
So, the key may not be picking who will win, but how close the game will be. Some games are virtual toss ups, so you will be just caring about who wins. But there will be games where the spread may be 10 1/2 and you have to wonder if the game will be close or (relatively speaking) a blowout. With that being said, if anyone has questions I (or anyone else understanding of the spread betting system) will help you out.
Also, I'll keep ALL predictions in here, from Week one to conference championship week. I'll also tally up everyone's victory totals at the end of the week and include them with next weeks games. All you have to do is pick the games and watch, and enjoy some college football. I felt like doing this because I find it a little more interactive then pick'em games and I don't have to bother with 20 or 25 games to pick even though most seem to be gimmes.
And if you miss out on a week, no big deal. I'll keep your record on here and you can get back going the next week. But if you pick one game for a week, you have to pick ALL games. If you don't, it's automatically a loss (and I don't know why people wouldn't at least take a shot in the dark).
Alright, enough babble from me. I will keep this updated and will try to have everything up by either Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on if a pick a Friday game or not). I just wanted to get this up early because it is Labor Day weekend and some people will be out of town. Now, here are the 5 games, with the favorite having the number next to them:
(lines courtesy of MGM-Mirage)
Friday, September 2 - #14 TCU (-6½) @ Baylor - 8 PM ET ESPN
Saturday, September 3 - South Florida @ #16 Notre Dame (-10½) - 3:30 PM ET NBC
Saturday, September 3 - #5 Boise State (-3) @ #19 Georgia - 8 PM ET ESPN
*Saturday, September 3 - #3 Oregon (-1) vs. #4 LSU - 8 PM ET ABC
Monday, September 5 - Miami (FL) (-6) @ Maryland - 8 PM ET ESPN
*- Held at a neutral location
Here are my predictions for these games, with a little bit of analysis-
BAYLOR to beat the spread. If this was later in the month, I think TCU would probably roll. But Week one, on the road, with the best offensive player on the other team in Robert Griffin III? TCU's going to have some growing pains replacing Andy Dalton and, while they still have a strong defense, will get themselves battle tested against a scrappy Baylor team. I don't know if it'll be an upset, but it will be tight throughout the game.
SOUTH FLORIDA to beat the spread, but lose the game. Like with the game above, if this was week 3 or 4 and we had some real-game film to disect these teams I'd be more confident with my picks. But, 10 1/2 is quite a lot of points, and USF was pretty good in defense last year, and the first game is normally where you see teams not at their sharpest. ND wins by at least a TD, but not by more then 10.
BOISE STATE to cover the spread. Georgia I do think will be improved (and actually win the SEC East) but Kellen Moore and Doug Martin are back on a high powered offense and team itching to make up for their choke job last year against Nevada. Chris Peterson has lost about 5 games his entire time at Boise (exaggerating, but not by much) and this is probably no better then the 4th best SEC team (Bama, LSU, and Arkansas I all see better. USC and MSU could give an argument as well). Boise to win, by 10+.
OREGON to cover the spread. This is a virtual toss up, since you can't win by half a point. Oregon does have to replace 3 offensive linemen, but Darron Thomas and LaMichael James return and LSU is having QB problems of their own with Jordan Jefferson suspended as is one of their top playmaking receivers in Russell Shepard. This won't be a high scoring affair, but Oregon does have less talent missing and will answer the challenge after getting edged out by another SEC team in the BCS Championship game this past January. Oregon by a TD.
MARYLAND to beat the spread and win the game. Miami, if you've been living under a rock these past 3 weeks, is under investigation due to former booster Nevin Shapiro, doing basically a bunch of things that were against NCAA rules (such as giving them money and hookers). QB Jacory Harris was one of those involved with Shapiro and is suspended (as of now) for the game. Both teams are going through head coaching changes, but Maryland was a somewhat surprising team last year and return their top rusher and passer, although their top two receivers have either gone to the NFL or graduated. Al Golden's first game isn't pretty, MD by 10.
You guys don't need as long winded explanations as me, but please BOLD the winners so it's easier for me to tally them up. And your predictions have to be in by the time of the first game of the week (8 ET Friday). So get your picks in asap.
And I will be doing an NFL one sometime next week.
Example: Syracuse is 6 1/2 favorites this week over Wake Forest. So say you pick Syracuse and they win 27-20, they'll have 'covered' the spread and your pick will be right. However, should Syracuse win 24-21 or even lose, then they will have not covered and you will be wrong.
So, the key may not be picking who will win, but how close the game will be. Some games are virtual toss ups, so you will be just caring about who wins. But there will be games where the spread may be 10 1/2 and you have to wonder if the game will be close or (relatively speaking) a blowout. With that being said, if anyone has questions I (or anyone else understanding of the spread betting system) will help you out.
Also, I'll keep ALL predictions in here, from Week one to conference championship week. I'll also tally up everyone's victory totals at the end of the week and include them with next weeks games. All you have to do is pick the games and watch, and enjoy some college football. I felt like doing this because I find it a little more interactive then pick'em games and I don't have to bother with 20 or 25 games to pick even though most seem to be gimmes.
And if you miss out on a week, no big deal. I'll keep your record on here and you can get back going the next week. But if you pick one game for a week, you have to pick ALL games. If you don't, it's automatically a loss (and I don't know why people wouldn't at least take a shot in the dark).
Alright, enough babble from me. I will keep this updated and will try to have everything up by either Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on if a pick a Friday game or not). I just wanted to get this up early because it is Labor Day weekend and some people will be out of town. Now, here are the 5 games, with the favorite having the number next to them:
(lines courtesy of MGM-Mirage)
Friday, September 2 - #14 TCU (-6½) @ Baylor - 8 PM ET ESPN
Saturday, September 3 - South Florida @ #16 Notre Dame (-10½) - 3:30 PM ET NBC
Saturday, September 3 - #5 Boise State (-3) @ #19 Georgia - 8 PM ET ESPN
*Saturday, September 3 - #3 Oregon (-1) vs. #4 LSU - 8 PM ET ABC
Monday, September 5 - Miami (FL) (-6) @ Maryland - 8 PM ET ESPN
*- Held at a neutral location
Here are my predictions for these games, with a little bit of analysis-
BAYLOR to beat the spread. If this was later in the month, I think TCU would probably roll. But Week one, on the road, with the best offensive player on the other team in Robert Griffin III? TCU's going to have some growing pains replacing Andy Dalton and, while they still have a strong defense, will get themselves battle tested against a scrappy Baylor team. I don't know if it'll be an upset, but it will be tight throughout the game.
SOUTH FLORIDA to beat the spread, but lose the game. Like with the game above, if this was week 3 or 4 and we had some real-game film to disect these teams I'd be more confident with my picks. But, 10 1/2 is quite a lot of points, and USF was pretty good in defense last year, and the first game is normally where you see teams not at their sharpest. ND wins by at least a TD, but not by more then 10.
BOISE STATE to cover the spread. Georgia I do think will be improved (and actually win the SEC East) but Kellen Moore and Doug Martin are back on a high powered offense and team itching to make up for their choke job last year against Nevada. Chris Peterson has lost about 5 games his entire time at Boise (exaggerating, but not by much) and this is probably no better then the 4th best SEC team (Bama, LSU, and Arkansas I all see better. USC and MSU could give an argument as well). Boise to win, by 10+.
OREGON to cover the spread. This is a virtual toss up, since you can't win by half a point. Oregon does have to replace 3 offensive linemen, but Darron Thomas and LaMichael James return and LSU is having QB problems of their own with Jordan Jefferson suspended as is one of their top playmaking receivers in Russell Shepard. This won't be a high scoring affair, but Oregon does have less talent missing and will answer the challenge after getting edged out by another SEC team in the BCS Championship game this past January. Oregon by a TD.
MARYLAND to beat the spread and win the game. Miami, if you've been living under a rock these past 3 weeks, is under investigation due to former booster Nevin Shapiro, doing basically a bunch of things that were against NCAA rules (such as giving them money and hookers). QB Jacory Harris was one of those involved with Shapiro and is suspended (as of now) for the game. Both teams are going through head coaching changes, but Maryland was a somewhat surprising team last year and return their top rusher and passer, although their top two receivers have either gone to the NFL or graduated. Al Golden's first game isn't pretty, MD by 10.
You guys don't need as long winded explanations as me, but please BOLD the winners so it's easier for me to tally them up. And your predictions have to be in by the time of the first game of the week (8 ET Friday). So get your picks in asap.
And I will be doing an NFL one sometime next week.
