IC25's NFL Prediction Thread

[IrishCanadian25]

After what was a stellar 2010-2011 for my prognostication skills (I accurately predicted the Packers championship, the Jets losing in the conference title game, the Texans not turning the corner yet, and the Seahawks winning the NFC West, among other gems), I am anxious to begin my 2011-2012 picks. Only this time, I am going to work backwards.

Here for your reading pleasure is, for starters, the 4 NFC teams I believe will finish LAST in their respective divisions.

NFC

NFC East - Washington Redskins. Not exactly a shaky limb I'm climbing on. The Eagles gor much better, the Cowboys shouldn't be any worse, and the Giants will be at least a .500 team. The Redskins STILL do not have a good handle on the QB situation in a year where a shorter training camp makes it harder for a new QB to learn an offense and get to know his coaches. They went 6-10 last year amidst a load of drama with Shanahan, Haynesworth, and McNabb. They will go 6-10 at best this year, but at least they'll do it quietly.

NFC North - Chicago Bears. Sorry CH David, but there has to be an odd team out. Minnesota is going to be better than they were with McNabb under center and a load of returning talent. AP is still a top tier RB. The Bears lack leadership since everyone turned on Jay Cutler following the Green Bay loss, Olin Kreutz is gone, and Brian Urlacher is due for his bi-annual season ending injury.

NFC South - Carolina Panthers. They're rebuilding, so you cannot blame them. There are 3 decent teams in this division in the Falcons, Saints, and Bucs, but the Panthers are still a year away. Cam Newton is too much of a wild card and the remaining QB options are putrid.

NFC West - Seattle Seahawks. I don't like their QB situation. This is still a bad division, but I don't see any of the stability they had last year. I picked them last year because Hasselbeck was a better QB option than any other. This year is a different animal. I don't like this team enough to pick them over the other 3.

 

[Little Jerry Lawler]

After what was a stellar 2010-2011 for my prognostication skills (I accurately predicted the Packers championship, the Jets losing in the conference title game, the Texans not turning the corner yet, and the Seahawks winning the NFC West, among other gems), I am anxious to begin my 2011-2012 picks. Only this time, I am going to work backwards.

Here for your reading pleasure is, for starters, the 8 teams I believe will finish LAST in their respective divisions.

NFC

NFC East - Washington Redskins. Not exactly a shaky limb I'm climbing on. The Eagles gor much better, the Cowboys shouldn't be any worse, and the Giants will be at least a .500 team. The Redskins STILL do not have a good handle on the QB situation in a year where a shorter training camp makes it harder for a new QB to learn an offense and get to know his coaches. They went 6-10 last year amidst a load of drama with Shanahan, Haynesworth, and McNabb. They will go 6-10 at best this year, but at least they'll do it quietly.

I agree with this especially since Shanahan seems so hell-bent on proving that John Beck is a starter. I just don't see that much talent and not much hope for them this year.

NFC North - Chicago Bears. Sorry CH David, but there has to be an odd team out. Minnesota is going to be better than they were with McNabb under center and a load of returning talent. AP is still a top tier RB. The Bears lack leadership since everyone turned on Jay Cutler following the Green Bay loss, Olin Kreutz is gone, and Brian Urlacher is due for his bi-annual season ending injury.

I disagree with this one. I think Minnesota will be last. I don't trust their receiving corps and their defense can be overrated at times. The only difference McNabb has this year from last year is Peterson but I still see them last with a 7-9 or 8-8 record.

NFC South - Carolina Panthers. They're rebuilding, so you cannot blame them. There are 3 decent teams in this division in the Falcons, Saints, and Bucs, but the Panthers are still a year away. Cam Newton is too much of a wild card and the remaining QB options are putrid.

No complaints with this one.

NFC West - Seattle Seahawks. I don't like their QB situation. This is still a bad division, but I don't see any of the stability they had last year. I picked them last year because Hasselbeck was a better QB option than any other. This year is a different animal. I don't like this team enough to pick them over the other 3.

I'm going ahead and call this right now. All four teams will finish with an 8-8 record. I don't see anything out of these teams that makes me think that they will be head and shoulders above the other. I'm picking the 49ers to be last because of Alex Smith and the headcase that is Crabtree.

 

[LoudClearVoice]

Before I read that you were predicting who would finish last, I was about to say, sorry but you are out of your damn mind.

Here are my predictions for who WINS their respective divisions:

NFC EAST: Philly. It's their division to lose. They are so much better than the other teams, that they should win this division realitively easily.
TEAM TO WATCH: Even though Philly is the hands down favorite in this division, I think this is still an interesting division. I think the team to watch is Dallas. Despite cutting several players, this offseason has been relatively quiet for them. Is there turmoil in Dallas and are they rebuilding or is this a team that can compete for the wildcard?

NFC NORTH: Packers. The defending champs will not fall into the trend of winning super bowl then missing playoffs. They are solid top to bottom on offense and defense. They will win the North.
TEAM TO WATCH: Another interesting division but I think the team to watch is the Detroit Lions. Notorious losers, the Lions appear to be on the rise with a good core of young talented playmakers including, Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, etc. For the first time in a decade, this team will play meaningful games deep into the season and compete for one of the NFC wildcards.


NFC SOUTH: Atlanta wins the division but New Orleans and Tampa Bay will be right there.
Team to watch: Tampa Bay. I think Tampa Bay over-achieved last year however, I think they're going to be a good team this year and I would not be totally shocked if they won this division.

NFC WEST: I think St. Louis wins this division by default. None of the teams are that great but someone has to win it. St. Louis actually looked like a team last year and looked competitive.
TEAM TO WATCH: San Francisco. Jim Harbaugh has taken the helm of this legendary franchise. They have issues at quarterback and on defense. Offensively, they might actually be decent if they can figure out who's going to play QB. I'm curious to see how Harbaugh's collegiate success translates in the NFL.

AFC EAST: New York Jets. This is an extremely solid team defensively even though they missed out on Asomugha. The offense is questionable, IMO but I still think they'll win this division.
TEAM TO WATCH: New England Patriots. We all know about Tom Brady and Darth Hoodie. With the additions of Haynesworth on D and Chad Ochocinco on offense, many experts are going to think the Patriots are "back." I disagree, I think their ship has sailed. They will be a good team that competes for the playoffs in the AFC but I don't see them winning this division, not with the Jets defense to contend with twice.

AFC NORTH: Business as usual in this division. Pittsburgh will win it with Baltimore right there in the end. The other two teams will be FAR behind.
TEAM TO WATCH: Cincy. What a mess. Are they going to trade Palmer? Are they going to decide on a QB other than Fitzpatrick? Can they stay focused and move beyond the circus of Ochocinco, T.O., Palmer, etc?

AFC South: Despite what the media will have you believe, this is still Indy's division. However, they will face must stiffer competition.
TEAM TO WATCH: Tennessee. Houston is the team that everyone is saying is ready to "turn the corner" but I'm curious to see what Tennessee does with an experienced Hasselbeck at the helm and with that powerful running game. It would not totally surprise me if Tennessee snuck up and took this division.

AFC WEST: San Diego. The Chargers aren't what they used to be but I think they're the best of a group of teams trying to figure themselves out. KC showed major improvements last year, Denver is in "transition" and Oakland is, well, Oakland.
Team to Watch: Several interesting teams but I'll go with KC. Are they really improving? Are they on the rise or was last year an abberation?

 

[IrishCanadian25]

LJL, I currently have Minnesota finishing 3rd in the NFC North, only one game ahead of Chicago. But I digress - I will predict the 3rd place teams later in the week...

Carolina and Washington are easy picks. Seattle I could see going 6-10 in a weak division, but the Rams will be better and the Niners will be basically the same, whereas Arizona got much better and Seattle much worse.

 

[Steamboat Ricky]

Indy is going to win it all and have the first Super Bowl home game. I don't care how good New England, the Jets, or Pittsburgh will be. Indy is going to blow it up like nobody's business because they have 18.*

*-If Jim Caldwell comes to terms with the fact that Peyton Manning is the head coach of the team.

 

[Little Jerry Lawler]

Out of the six teams (Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs) that made the playoffs in the AFC last year, the only change I see is maybe the Chargers winning the division but the Chiefs will have a winning record. I can never trust the Texans and the Jaguars are always up and down and their chance to usurp Manning was last year and they blew it.

 

[hatehabsforever]

Like the poster above me, I originally misread the question and thought IC's predictions were for division winners. I was about to arrange to have a strait jacket sent to him. Now that I have read the question properly, here's my take on it:

NFC East

I see the Cowboys finishing last here. The Redskins may give them a run at this dubious distinction, but as I see it, Dallas was bad last year and I don't see them being any better this year. With Romo taking the snaps, they will struggle. Shanahan will boost the Redskins enough to get them out of the cellar, sorry Cowboys fans.

NFC West

I'll go with the Arizona Cardinals here, but this is a tough call because all the teams in this division stink.

NFC South

Carolina will be better this year than last year, but that's not exactly setting the bar particularly high. Atlanta, New Orleans, and even Tampa Bay will be good, resulting in Carolina adding 3-4 wins to their total, but still occupying the cellar.

NFC North

Chicago and Green Bay should battle it out for the division lead here, with the other likely occupying a wildcard spot, leaving Detroit and Minnesota to battle for the basement. I think Cunningham will help Minnesota. I still see Detroit at the bottom of the pile. I just cannot get past their years of mediocrity and below. Detroit will be better, but they'll still come last. Sorry Big Sexy.

 

[IrishCanadian25]

And now, the 4 AFC teams I believe will finish LAST in their respective divisions.

AFC

AFC East - Miami Dolphins. I realize the trendy and easy pick will be the Bills, but there are two main differences I see between the Bills and Fins, and the two differences are also the most important factors this year - the QB and the Head Coach. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a stellar NFL QB, but at least the Bills know he's the guy, and he showed signs of improvement last year. The Dolphins have spent the last few weeks shopping for an upgrade from Chad Henne, and have come up empty. Chan Galey is an up and coming NFL coach, and the Bills know he's in charge. The Fins, on the other hand, basically left Tony Sporano twisting in the wind while they tried to upgrade, again failing. The point is this - in a shortened training camp, the Dolphins organization has signalled to the team that they lack faith in both the coach AND the QB, which likely means the team will lack faith as well. It also means that there is a short leash on both, which will make for inconsistency in the locker room. I see a 1-4 start dooming both coach and QB and turning '11-'12 into a rebuild.

AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals. No brainer here. The Browns found their QB of the future in Colt McCoy. The Bengals are putting their eggs in the basket of a rookie QB in Dalton and rookie WR in Green after losing Ocho Cinco. This team is an nmitigated disaster. They are the LA Clippers of the NFL, with a GM / Owner who is more concerned with being right than being a winner. I think Dalton has potential, but the Bengals are a 4-12 team.

AFC South - Tennessee Titans. Once again, new QB in an uncertain system. Kerry Collins and Vince Young are old news, and apparently Jack Locker is supposed to step in and take over right away? Not to mention the drama surrounding Cortland Finnegan. I don't see the Titans doing much better than 5-11, and I think their coach is on the hot seat.

AFC West - Denver Broncos. What's worse than a new coach with a rookie QB? How about a new coach with a QB controversy? While all signs point to Kyle Orton as the starter, the Tim Tebow watch is in full swing. I don't buy Orton as a winner, and the Denver defense isn't good enough to hold teams at bay. If Orton loses two in a row or has a 3 INT game, expect to hear the Tebow-supporters in full force. It's rare that a team in this division actually has LESS stability than the Raiders.

 

[Little Jerry Lawler]

And now, the 4 AFC teams I believe will finish LAST in their respective divisions.

AFC

AFC East - Miami Dolphins. I realize the trendy and easy pick will be the Bills, but there are two main differences I see between the Bills and Fins, and the two differences are also the most important factors this year - the QB and the Head Coach. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a stellar NFL QB, but at least the Bills know he's the guy, and he showed signs of improvement last year. The Dolphins have spent the last few weeks shopping for an upgrade from Chad Henne, and have come up empty. Chan Galey is an up and coming NFL coach, and the Bills know he's in charge. The Fins, on the other hand, basically left Tony Sporano twisting in the wind while they tried to upgrade, again failing. The point is this - in a shortened training camp, the Dolphins organization has signalled to the team that they lack faith in both the coach AND the QB, which likely means the team will lack faith as well. It also means that there is a short leash on both, which will make for inconsistency in the locker room. I see a 1-4 start dooming both coach and QB and turning '11-'12 into a rebuild.

AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals. No brainer here. The Browns found their QB of the future in Colt McCoy. The Bengals are putting their eggs in the basket of a rookie QB in Dalton and rookie WR in Green after losing Ocho Cinco. This team is an nmitigated disaster. They are the LA Clippers of the NFL, with a GM / Owner who is more concerned with being right than being a winner. I think Dalton has potential, but the Bengals are a 4-12 team.

AFC South - Tennessee Titans. Once again, new QB in an uncertain system. Kerry Collins and Vince Young are old news, and apparently Jack Locker is supposed to step in and take over right away? Not to mention the drama surrounding Cortland Finnegan. I don't see the Titans doing much better than 5-11, and I think their coach is on the hot seat.

AFC West - Denver Broncos. What's worse than a new coach with a rookie QB? How about a new coach with a QB controversy? While all signs point to Kyle Orton as the starter, the Tim Tebow watch is in full swing. I don't buy Orton as a winner, and the Denver defense isn't good enough to hold teams at bay. If Orton loses two in a row or has a 3 INT game, expect to hear the Tebow-supporters in full force. It's rare that a team in this division actually has LESS stability than the Raiders.

I agree with all those picks although I don't know if you knew that Fisher wasn't the coach anymore and that Mike Munchak replaced him. The problem with Tennessee as it has been for years is they are pretty low on wide receivers. Britt is a problem waiting to happen so if he can get his act together, I see a little hope for the Titans.

 

[The Greenius]

On the NFC side, I practically agree with every choice except the Bears. The Bears have got some great talent, even though everyone is treating Jay Cutler like he murdered someone. I'd say the Vikings are still last place, unless the Donovan can pull himself together, or the Lions too, if Matthew Stafford, the Greg Oden of Football, gets injured for the entire season.


Meanwhile, for the AFC, most of those picks seem plausible. The fins are the only ones that may seem questionable, but you raised some good points about Bills morale compared to theirs

 

[IrishCanadian25]

My NFC North pick was tough. Anytime a team is predicted to go from Division champ and NFC title game to dead last is a little weird, I gather. But I have my reasons:

Why the Bears?

Greg Olsen, a solid Tight-end and a big player in their playoff run last year, was dealt for a draft pick.

They're putting stock in other teams busts, such as Vernon Gholston and Roy Williams.

They had four team leaders last year - Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, Olin Kreutz, and Jay Cutler. Urlacher is injury prone and 33, Peppers was overpaid, Kreutz is gone (and the team isn't happy), and the end of last season brought questions about Cutler's toughness and guts, and even a rumor his injury was phony.

New kickoff rules don't favor Devin Hester.

Why not the Vikings?

Last year's failures were more a function of an inflexible coach and QB dealing with his mortality than the supporting cast. Both the QB and Coach are turned over.

The QB is experienced and is a stable presence.

Why Not the Lions?

Good QB in his 2nd year with a decent coaching staff.

Solid Defense with young, talented personell.

 

[Big Sexy]

I don't see how the Bills won't finish last in their division. In fact the Bills have a good chance at finishing with the worst record in the entire league. The Bills only finished with 4 wins last year and they did not get better at all. The Dolphins had 7 wins last year and they certainly didn't get worse. Chad Henne struggled at times but he has only been in the league for three years and I'd still take him over Fitzpatrick. Buffalo just doesn't have the talent to be a very competitive team. Even if the Dolphins digress and finish around 6-10, I still can't see the Bills winning more then 5 games.

 

[Little Jerry Lawler]

I disagree. Miami will be in the running with Washington to have the worst record. Both Brown and Williams are gone and who knows how Marshall will be. I can't see them winning more than 3 games.

 

[Big Sexy]

I disagree. Miami will be in the running with Washington to have the worst record. Both Brown and Williams are gone and who knows how Marshall will be. I can't see them winning more than 3 games.

Neither Brown or Williams was very good last year yet they still went 7-9. Williams is now 33 which is ancient for a running back even with the couple years he took off and Brown will be 30 in December. Running back is always the easiest position to find starters as early as a guys rookie year and Daniel Thomas has more then enough talent to make some noise right away in the starting role. Add in Reggie Bush as the third down back and they will be just fine at the position. Certainly not 4 games worse. Brandon Marshall is the same mentally unstable yet extremely talented player every year so there is no change there. If anything he will have a better year having a full season with Henne under his belt. The addition of Marc Colombo also gives them a right tackle to play on the opposite side of Jake Long and that moves Vernon Carey inside to right guard which improves the O line.

 

[Megatron]

I don't see how the Bills won't finish last in their division. In fact the Bills have a good chance at finishing with the worst record in the entire league. The Bills only finished with 4 wins last year and they did not get better at all. The Dolphins had 7 wins last year and they certainly didn't get worse. Chad Henne struggled at times but he has only been in the league for three years and I'd still take him over Fitzpatrick. Buffalo just doesn't have the talent to be a very competitive team. Even if the Dolphins digress and finish around 6-10, I still can't see the Bills winning more then 5 games.

Henne is a bad QB. At least Fitzpatrick showed some consistency. Henne got thrown under the bus by their star WR, got benched/replaced by Tyler Thigpen, then only made it back again by injury. There's a reason the Phins were trying to get Kyle Orton off of the Broncos hands and there were rumors they were interested in bringing Favre in, they have no faith in Henne as a starter. Fitzpatrick's no All-Pro QB, but he's certainly got his team behind him and is much more consistent and reliable then Henne.

And they have improved slightly on both sides of the ball. Macell Dareus should be a nice piece alongside top 5 DT Kyle Williams, along with the addition of Nick Barnett who'll start right away. Brad Smith appears to be a small signing on the surface, but he's a guy that can give you 10-15 plays a game and possibly hit a few bombs. He can run the wildcat as well as anyone, which gives them another dimension, and they can spread out their receivers 5 wide and be an effective offense. They will probably struggle running, yes, since their line still isn't great, but it's a passing league and you can win 6-7 games with an effective passing game. I agree with IC that the Dolphins will finish last and the sinking ship that has been Sparano since his first season will cause him to be canned and they will go after someone like Jeff Fisher.

 

[Big Sexy]

Henne is a bad QB. At least Fitzpatrick showed some consistency. Henne got thrown under the bus by their star WR, got benched/replaced by Tyler Thigpen, then only made it back again by injury. There's a reason the Phins were trying to get Kyle Orton off of the Broncos hands and there were rumors they were interested in bringing Favre in, they have no faith in Henne as a starter. Fitzpatrick's no All-Pro QB, but he's certainly got his team behind him and is much more consistent and reliable then Henne.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a solid year last season as a product of the offense he was running. He had been below average every other time in his career when given playing time. Henne isn't a bad qb, he has had a couple average seasons. Once again he has only been in the league three years so it's a little early to jump to conclusions. He has struggled throwing a few too many picks but his completion% is certainly better then Fitzpatrick's. You put Fitzpatrick on the Dolphins last year and I guarantee the team does worse.

And they have improved slightly on both sides of the ball. Macell Dareus should be a nice piece alongside top 5 DT Kyle Williams, along with the addition of Nick Barnett who'll start right away. Brad Smith appears to be a small signing on the surface, but he's a guy that can give you 10-15 plays a game and possibly hit a few bombs. He can run the wildcat as well as anyone, which gives them another dimension, and they can spread out their receivers 5 wide and be an effective offense. They will probably struggle running, yes, since their line still isn't great, but it's a passing league and you can win 6-7 games with an effective passing game. I agree with IC that the Dolphins will finish last and the sinking ship that has been Sparano since his first season will cause him to be canned and they will go after someone like Jeff Fisher.

They were a horrible team last year and didn't really improve much at all. Nick Barnett is getting up their in age and he is nothing more then a replacement for Paul Pozluzny so that's not really an improvement. They also lost starting safety Donte Whitner. The only slight improvement is getting Brad Smith on offense but he sure as fuck isn't going to add three wins to that team. There's a reason most experts are picking the Bills as one of the teams to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

The Dolphins defense alone is good enough to get the Dolphins to 6 wins.

 

[Megatron]

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a solid year last season as a product of the offense he was running. He had been below average every other time in his career when given playing time. Henne isn't a bad qb, he has had a couple average seasons. Once again he has only been in the league three years so it's a little early to jump to conclusions. He has struggled throwing a few too many picks but his completion% is certainly better then Fitzpatrick's. You put Fitzpatrick on the Dolphins last year and I guarantee the team does worse.

Henne was below average his first two years as starter, to put it nicely. He threw more INTs then TDs and only slightly completed more passes total. Plus, he's had the advantage of having the same OC for all 3 years, while Fitzpatrick has bounced around until finally sticking at Buffalo (although he's just now having his 2nd straight season with the same OC).

And it's ridiculous of you to say that Fitzpatrick would make the Dolphins worse. Henne had 4 more INT's in only 50ish more passes and had 8 less TD's with those passes. Give me the guy that takes better care of the ball and scores more over a guy who's only slightly more accurate (only 3-4%) but turns it over more. So no, I completely disagree Fitzpatrick would've made Miami worse. And judging by last year, it looks like I'm right.

They were a horrible team last year and didn't really improve much at all. Nick Barnett is getting up their in age and he is nothing more then a replacement for Paul Pozluzny so that's not really an improvement. They also lost starting safety Donte Whitner. The only slight improvement is getting Brad Smith on offense but he sure as fuck isn't going to add three wins to that team. There's a reason most experts are picking the Bills as one of the teams to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

The Dolphins defense alone is good enough to get the Dolphins to 6 wins.

And the Bills have a very dangerous offense. Fitzpatrick will have fun throwing it around to Stevie Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, Lee Evans, Brad Smith and David Nelson, and they have solid backs with Jackson and Spiller. That'll earn them a few wins. And Buffalo went defense with their first 4 picks. With Kyle Williams, Barnett, McKelvin and Florence already there they're helping build a solid foundation. One of those 4 is bound to work out this year, even with the limited workouts they've been having for rookies.

And for the record I have both around the 5-6 win mark. Neither will be great, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami fall back 2 wins and Buffalo gain a win or two.

 

[Big Sexy]

Henne was below average his first two years as starter, to put it nicely. He threw more INTs then TDs and only slightly completed more passes total. Plus, he's had the advantage of having the same OC for all 3 years, while Fitzpatrick has bounced around until finally sticking at Buffalo (although he's just now having his 2nd straight season with the same OC).

And it's ridiculous of you to say that Fitzpatrick would make the Dolphins worse. Henne had 4 more INT's in only 50ish more passes and had 8 less TD's with those passes. Give me the guy that takes better care of the ball and scores more over a guy who's only slightly more accurate (only 3-4%) but turns it over more. So no, I completely disagree Fitzpatrick would've made Miami worse. And judging by last year, it looks like I'm right.

You are comparing two qbs in two completely different types of offenses last year. The Bills had no running game and they knew that so it was a pass first offense. Fitzpatrick's stats were ballooned similarly to how Kyle Orton's were in Denver last season because of the type of offense. The Dolphins were a run first team and their running game happened to be no where near as good as it had been in previous years. Because of this Miami had to rely more on passing and that didn't fit their offensive style at all. Fitzpatrick in Miami's offense last year with the same personnel would not have made them any better.

Henne also benefits from being a few years younger and he has more room to grow as a qb. Fitzpatrick has likely hit his ceiling. Go look at a guy like Troy Aikman's first two years as a starter and compare them to Henne's. Henne could still certainly become the good starting qb people thought he could be coming out of college.

And the Bills have a very very dangerous offense. Fitzpatrick will have fun throwing it around to Stevie Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, Lee Evans, Brad Smith and David Nelson, and they have solid backs with Jackson and Spiller. That'll earn them a few wins. And Buffalo went defense with their first 4 picks. With Kyle Williams, Barnett, McKelvin and Florence already there they're helping build a solid foundation. One of those 4 is bound to work out this year, even with the limited workouts they've been having for rookies.

They had basically the exact same offense last year and only got 4 wins out of it. The defense lost just as many guys as they gained so I don't see it being any better. They had 4 wins last year and I'm not seeing how they''ve improved. They will get 5 wins max.

And for the record I have both around the 5-6 win mark. Neither will be great, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami fall back 2 wins and Buffalo gain a win or two.

The Dolphins didn't get any worse on offense. They actually improved the O Line and got younger and more athletic at the running back position. Defensively they also improved by getting Kevin Burnett at LB who is an improvement over Channing Crowder. They also added Jason Taylor who will add depth and leadership on the D line. I see Miami around 7 wins just like last year.

 

[Megatron]

You are comparing two qbs in two completely different types of offenses last year. The Bills had no running game and they knew that so it was a pass first offense. Fitzpatrick's stats were ballooned similarly to how Kyle Orton's were in Denver last season because of the type of offense. The Dolphins were a run first team and their running game happened to be no where near as good as it had been in previous years. Because of this Miami had to rely more on passing and that didn't fit their offensive style at all. Fitzpatrick in Miami's offense last year with the same personnel would not have made them any better.

Buffalo was 18th in Rushing yards last year. That's a pretty decent running game if you ask me. And the Dolphins offensive philosophy doesn't change the fact that Henne threw 19 picks to 15 TD's. That's what I'd be more worried about then the yards and comp %. He cost them more then he scored for them, and using any measurable you want he wasn't as good as Fitzpatrick last year (Passer rating, ESPN's Total QBR, etc.). Last year Fitzpatrick was a better option then Henne. Anyone who says otherwise is probably a dolphins fan (although they aren't even sold on Henne) or has a soft spot for Henne (which wouldn't surprise me since he did go to UM).

Henne also benefits from being a few years younger and he has more room to grow as a qb. Fitzpatrick has likely hit his ceiling. Go look at a guy like Troy Aikman's first two years as a starter and compare them to Henne's. Henne could still certainly become the good starting qb people thought he could be coming out of college.

That's not what you said though. You said Fitzpatrick wouldn't have been a better option last year, which is wrong by any measurable of a QB.

And Henne could become something, but this is his make or break year. Should the Dolphins go 6-10 or 7-9 this year and Henne brings the same performance expect one of the talented QB's to be drafted by them (Ryan Lindley, Landry Jones if he falls there). Plus, Aikman was highly thought of coming out of college (seeing as he was a #1 pick). Henne was a late 2nd rounder, which isn't bad, but there's a lot less expected from a late 2 then a #1, and there's generally less talent as well. That's just not a good comparison.

They had basically the exact same offense last year and only got 4 wins out of it. The defense lost just as many guys as they gained so I don't see it being any better. They had 4 wins last year and I'm not seeing how they''ve improved. They will get 5 wins max.

The defense got torched a lot of the time last year. 8 of their 12 losses they allowed at least 34 points, mainly because they couldn't stop the run. Dareus gives them another run stopper, Barnett makes up for the loss of Pozlusny (even if its a slight downgrade), they're saying Shawne Merriman may have regained a little bit of his step, and they have a nice young secondary. I agree this is only a 5-6 win team, but their schedule is slightly easier then the Dolphins.

The Dolphins didn't get any worse on offense. They actually improved the O Line and got younger and more athletic at the running back position. Defensively they also improved by getting Kevin Burnett at LB who is an improvement over Channing Crowder. They also added Jason Taylor who will add depth and leadership on the D line. I see Miami around 7 wins just like last year.

Yet they still have Henne at QB. If he gives them the production last year, this team isn't winning more then 6. If Buffalos defense even slightly improves, they'll win another game or two.

EDIT: I just found out they have a new OC. That may change my view on this matter, as Henning wasn't that good these last two years.

 

[IrishCanadian25]

And now, the 4 NFC teams I believe will finish THIRD in their respective divisions.

NFC

NFC East - New York Giants. I can't help but think the Giants are due for one more step back before a step forward again. They've lost a bit, and it'll be tough to replace Osi's forced fumbles and sacks. I like the role players on the Giants, but I can't help but feel a bit concerned about the lack of playmakers. Eli turns the ball over a lot, and with Philly's cornerbacks, that's 0-2 waiting to happen. 7-9 is my estimate.

NFC North - Minnesota Vikings. My one 4th place shock in the NFC was the Bears instead of the Vikings or Lions. I stand by that. I think this is McNabb's last hurrah, and that last year's 6-10 debacle was as much a result of poor coaching, poor QB play, injuries, and a lack of leadership. I still don't see clear cut leadership - McNabb isn't vocal enough - but at least I see stability. And a running game.

NFC South - Tampa Bay. I like the Bucs, but in a QB-driven league, I have to take Drew Brees and Matt Ryan well ahead of Josh Freeman, regardless of the strides made last year. I don't think this team improved enough last year to make a huge step forward in a petty deep division.

NFC West - San Francisco. Frank Gore has been a bit of a point of drama, and I STILL do not buy Alex Smith as an NFL QB. I really don't think they are a bad team, but they also did not improve enough over Arizona and St. Louis to be a division title contender. And yet somehow, they'll still be in the mix week 15.

 

[Big Sexy]

Buffalo was 18th in Rushing yards last year. That's a pretty decent running game if you ask me. And the Dolphins offensive philosophy doesn't change the fact that Henne threw 19 picks to 15 TD's. That's what I'd be more worried about then the yards and comp %. He cost them more then he scored for them, and using any measurable you want he wasn't as good as Fitzpatrick last year (Passer rating, ESPN's Total QBR, etc.). Last year Fitzpatrick was a better option then Henne. Anyone who says otherwise is probably a dolphins fan (although they aren't even sold on Henne) or has a soft spot for Henne (which wouldn't surprise me since he did go to UM).

Last year Fitzpatrick was in a better offensive situation to put up numbers and I'd say he had more talent around him at receiver as well. Steve Johnson had a tremendous year, Lee Evans is always solid, and Roscoe Parrish is a very good slot guy. Even David Nelson was great as the 4th option. The Dolphins had Brandon Marshall and that's about it. Davone Bess is a good slot receiver but he was playing out of position at the two spot and they had no depth behind them.

That's not what you said though. You said Fitzpatrick wouldn't have been a better option last year, which is wrong by any measurable of a QB.

Kyle Orton had a much better season statistically last year vs Donovann McNabb but I sure as fuck would have rather had McNabb as my starting qb. One year of stats in two completely different situations isn't a great indicator of who would do better where. Fitzpatrick's solid numbers in Buffalo last year wouldn't have necessarily transferred the same to every franchise in the league. Look at his numbers from before last year. The offensive scheme certainly helped his numbers improved.

And Henne could become something, but this is his make or break year. Should the Dolphins go 6-10 or 7-9 this year and Henne brings the same performance expect one of the talented QB's to be drafted by them (Ryan Lindley, Landry Jones if he falls there). Plus, Aikman was highly thought of coming out of college (seeing as he was a #1 pick). Henne was a late 2nd rounder, which isn't bad, but there's a lot less expected from a late 2 then a #1, and there's generally less talent as well. That's just not a good comparison.

How is it not a good comparison? If anything the fact that Henne wasn't as highly touted coming out of college and has put up better numbers then Aikman is even more of an indicator not to sleep on him. If Henne struggles again this year then yes he is in trouble and may end up being a career back up but he at least deserves a shot.

The defense got torched a lot of the time last year. 8 of their 12 losses they allowed at least 34 points, mainly because they couldn't stop the run. Dareus gives them another run stopper, Barnett makes up for the loss of Pozlusny (even if its a slight downgrade), they're saying Shawne Merriman may have regained a little bit of his step, and they have a nice young secondary. I agree this is only a 5-6 win team, but their schedule is slightly easier then the Dolphins.

One rookie defensive tackle isn't going to make that much of a difference especially when their secondary has downgraded by losing Whitner.

Yet they still have Henne at QB. If he gives them the production last year, this team isn't winning more then 6. If Buffalos defense even slightly improves, they'll win another game or two.

I have faith in Henne improving and even if he does stay the same they still won 7 games last year and they now have a slightly improved overall football team.

 

[Megatron]

Last year Fitzpatrick was in a better offensive situation to put up numbers and I'd say he had more talent around him at receiver as well. Steve Johnson had a tremendous year, Lee Evans is always solid, and Roscoe Parrish is a very good slot guy. Even David Nelson was great as the 4th option. The Dolphins had Brandon Marshall and that's about it. Davone Bess is a good slot receiver but he was playing out of position at the two spot and they had no depth behind them.

Bess was a solid #2, Brian Hartline had their best YPC with 14.3 and had 43 catches, and Anthony Fasano was another solid option. Plus he had Brown receiving out of the backfield. Henne had good weapons (including the best option on either side with Marshall), and he was more or less below average. Had he have about 10 less picks it would've been a solid season, but 10 picks is a lot. And again, his Passer Rating was lower and his Total QBR (a more sabermetric way and probably a more true outlook then Passer Rating) was at the low 40s while Fitzpatrick was right below 50 (which is average). Blaming it on the offensive system is an excuse. When you make as many turnovers he had and not get as many TDs as he did he has a right to be scrutinized, and when you check down all the time like Henne does you'll have a less chance of getting TD's.

Plus, they both had about the same amount of attempt differential (~100) of throwing to running. It's not like Fitzpatrick had 200 more throws then Henne.

Kyle Orton had a much better season statistically last year vs Donovann McNabb but I sure as fuck would have rather had McNabb as my starting qb. One year of stats in two completely different situations isn't a great indicator of who would do better where. Fitzpatrick's solid numbers in Buffalo last year wouldn't have necessarily transferred the same to every franchise in the league. Look at his numbers from before last year. The offensive scheme certainly helped his numbers improved.

You could make that case for about anyone. And it's nearly impossible to make assumptions that 'so and so would've done worse at so and so because of the system'. You don't know how the relationship b/w his receivers would've been or how he would've adapted to the system. Fitzpatrick would've been a better option to have last year then Henne because he protected the ball better and scored more. Who's to say Fitzpatrick wouldn't have connected with Marshall 20 more times and got 4 more TDs then what henne did with him?

How is it not a good comparison? If anything the fact that Henne wasn't as highly touted coming out of college and has put up better numbers then Aikman is even more of an indicator not to sleep on him. If Henne struggles again this year then yes he is in trouble and may end up being a career back up but he at least deserves a shot.

Those Cowboys teams on a whole weren't very good Aikmans first two years. Henne was starting on a team that just came off a playoff berth and led them to two straight 7-9 seaons. They were in two completely different situations.

One rookie defensive tackle isn't going to make that much of a difference especially when their secondary has downgraded by losing Whitner.

They also added Aaron Williams who can play DB and other talents via the draft. Plus Whitner was somewhat notorious for being a poor tackler. Jarius Byrd and Bryan Scott should be fine fill-ins.

I have faith in Henne improving and even if he does stay the same they still won 7 games last year and they now have a slightly improved overall football team.

He better figure it out or he's toast. I do think he'll still be prone to making bad decisions and sticking with the checkdown, even with a new system. 6-10 I see even with a solid D.

 

[Big Sexy]

Bess was a solid #2, Brian Hartline had their best YPC with 14.3 and had 43 catches, and Anthony Fasano was another solid option. Plus he had Brown receiving out of the backfield. Henne had good weapons (including the best option on either side with Marshall), and he was more or less below average. Had he have about 10 less picks it would've been a solid season, but 10 picks is a lot. And again, his Passer Rating was lower and his Total QBR (a more sabermetric way and probably a more true outlook then Passer Rating) was at the low 40s while Fitzpatrick was right below 50 (which is average). Blaming it on the offensive system is an excuse. When you make as many turnovers he had and not get as many TDs as he did he has a right to be scrutinized, and when you check down all the time like Henne does you'll have a less chance of getting TD's.

Bess did ok but he was certainly out of position at the two. Hartline had good numbers but he isn't that great of a talent. His production was more because of Marshall always being double teamed. The fact remains there are many different factors that go into stats. Another thing not being looked at is the fact that Henne was on a team that was supposed to compete for a division title against teams like new England and the Jets. That is a lot more pressure then a guy who is on a shit team and has absolutely nothing to lose.

Did Fitzpatrick put up better numbers last year? Yes. Does that make him a better qb? No. If the roles were reversed would the two qb's have done the same? No way of knowing but it's doubtful. Henne deserves to be scrutinized but there was a lot wrong with that offense last year. The running game was sub par, the O line play wasn't all that great, and the depth at receiver wasn't there.

You could make that case for about anyone. And it's nearly impossible to make assumptions that 'so and so would've done worse at so and so because of the system'. You don't know how the relationship b/w his receivers would've been or how he would've adapted to the system. Fitzpatrick would've been a better option to have last year then Henne because he protected the ball better and scored more. Who's to say Fitzpatrick wouldn't have connected with Marshall 20 more times and got 4 more TDs then what henne did with him?

It's also impossible for you to make the assumption that Fitzpatrick wouldn't have done the same or worse as Henne in Miami. Fitzpatrick has been in the league 6 years and started 36 games in that time period. The first 23 of those 36 starts were not very good at all. The offensive scheme and the other factors I've discussed certainly played a big role in his solid play last year. He didn't go from below average to above average just out of the blue after 5 previous years and 23 previous starts. Using 13 games of stats for a qb isn't going to convince me of much.

Those Cowboys teams on a whole weren't very good Aikmans first two years. Henne was starting on a team that just came off a playoff berth and led them to two straight 7-9 seaons. They were in two completely different situations.

The Dolphins defense and the wildcat led them to the playoffs. When Henne took over the wildcat was all but gone and they went to a more pro style offense. His first year he had jack at receiver and this last year the depth still wasn't that great and the running game digressed.

They also added Aaron Williams who can play DB and other talents via the draft. Plus Whitner was somewhat notorious for being a poor tackler. Jarius Byrd and Bryan Scott should be fine fill-ins.

None of that screams improved defense.

He better figure it out or he's toast. I do think he'll still be prone to making bad decisions and sticking with the checkdown, even with a new system. 6-10 I see even with a solid D.

Even if they go 6-10 I see the Bills winning 5 games max so the point becomes irrelevant.

 

[The Greenius]

And now, the 4 NFC teams I believe will finish THIRD in their respective divisions.

NFC

NFC East - New York Giants. I can't help but think the Giants are due for one more step back before a step forward again. They've lost a bit, and it'll be tough to replace Osi's forced fumbles and sacks. I like the role players on the Giants, but I can't help but feel a bit concerned about the lack of playmakers. Eli turns the ball over a lot, and with Philly's cornerbacks, that's 0-2 waiting to happen. 7-9 is my estimate.

I might agree about the Giants. I think they're due for another 8-8 or 10-6 season, and probably 6th seed. I don't think Jason Garrett will be that successful his first full year as coach, so I'd say the Giants take advantage of that and stay in second. You're right about Philly's abusing the Giants, with all that added talent, they would definitely go 2-0 against the Giants. But the Giants get to face every team from the NFC West, they get to play the Bills, Dolphins, and the Skins Twice.

Though, at the same time, the Cowboys have virtually the same schedule. I think whoever finishes third will depend on the Season Series between the two.

 

[Megatron]

Alright, I guess it's time for me to start making some predictions...

AFC East
1. New England
2. New York
3. Buffalo
4. Miami

The Patriots had the best offseason out of anyone in the division with their nice veteran additions. Ochocinco will be a good #3 option even though he'll more then likely play one of the outside parts. Haynesworth can be a monster if he gets his head straight, and Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter give their poor pass rushing some threats (along with Wilfork). The Jets will still be a playoff team since they're returning most of their key players from last year (with only Brad Smith, Braylon Edwards, and Damien Woody being notable losses). It will be interesting to see if Derrick Mason or Plaxico Burress can take some of the pressure off of Santonio, though. The Jets let 2 of their top 4 receivers from last year go, so the pressure will be on those two to bring some of that production back. I do think they will lose a game or two that they probably shouldn't which causes them to drop down to a WC spot for the 3rd straight year, and a split against NE also appears likely to me. Buffalo I think is slowly moving in the right direction with some nice underrated additions like Barnett and Dareus (via the draft) to help make up some of their weaknesses. They'll still be a lower ranked defensive team but they should improve slightly in their 2nd year under the Gailey regime. I also see Miami falling back slightly, since I still think Henne will be prone to the checkdown and throwing too many picks, causing some problems on a pretty good D. They lose their top 2 RB's but get younger with drafting Daniel Thomas and trading for Reggie Bush. I see both teams having near identical records with Sparano getting canned either after the season or if they get off to a bad start.