Winter is Coming - The Night is Dark and Full of Spoilers

I think it depends on whether Young Griff turns out to be that important (or legit).

I hope he is in one way, because if not then there wasn't much point in introducing him. However if he is for real then he gets in Daenerys' way and she's already behind schedule.

With how unstable she is becoming and being let down by men, I can imagine her feeding him to to her dragons or at least consider it.
 
I still fancy my prediction of "Selmy betrays Daenerys for Aegon," considering he is the true Targaryen heir.

I don't think Aegon will be revealed as a hoax. He certainly isn't one in the mind of Jon Connington, whose thoughts we have heard. I think Aegon will either get himself killed leading some reckless attack or by Daenerys during a Second Dance of Dragons.
 
Барбоса;5004863 said:
The removing of that part of the story in the show would see to depend on just how much importance GRRM really places on Aegon.

If his appearance and actions are really just a way to create more conflict for Danaerys both with him and even Selmy, rather than him becoming a major player in the fight for the Throne, then I could easily see him removed altogether. His introduction was a terrible piece of story-telling after all, almost tacked on as part of Tyrion's journey east.

Too few hints, then all of a sudden BAM! baby Aegon. This is why I think he's bullshit, "Mummers Dragon" etc. I know Varys is a mummer so it makes sense, but going by his speech with Kevan then any common born with silver hair fits the bill. "Ooh, I've repaired nets, crown me King plz". Power derives from birthright, but 'power is just a trick, a shadow on the wall,' the mans own words...

I think it depends on whether Young Griff turns out to be that important (or legit).

I hope he is in one way, because if not then there wasn't much point in introducing him. However if he is for real then he gets in Daenerys' way and she's already behind schedule.

I hope Dany becomes the mad queen. If ASOIAF really does shit over tropes, as it has with Stannis (his role should be that of the evil greedy Uncle out to steal what isn't his) then Dany never getting to Westeros or ending up wiping out her own family instead of being the Targ saviour would be awesome. Same goes for Jon not acting on being Jon Targaryen but taking his NW duties seriously.

With how unstable she is becoming and being let down by men, I can imagine her feeding him to to her dragons or at least consider it.

Her thoughts at the end of Dance are ominous.

Барбоса;5005033 said:
I still fancy my prediction of "Selmy betrays Daenerys for Aegon," considering he is the true Targaryen heir.

I don't think Aegon will be revealed as a hoax. He certainly isn't one in the mind of Jon Connington, whose thoughts we have heard. I think Aegon will either get himself killed leading some reckless attack or by Daenerys during a Second Dance of Dragons.

Jon Con met the boy when he was five years old already, and Jon Con is most certainly NOT to Rhaegar what Davos is to Stannis, that is I trust Davos' impartial opinion, I do not trust Jon Con's, and Tyrion questioned the age of the kid against the time elapsed immediately. Unreliable POV and all that jazz.
 
Not only might Conington be an unreliable narrator in the intentional lying sense, he might also have convinced himself that the falsehood is the truth. He clearly is grief-stricken over his failure to protect Rhaegar by killing Robert at the Battle of the Bells or by not being at the Ruby Ford. The rumour about him drinking himself to death could easily be based a significant amount of truth and in his drunken stupor he could be easy prey for manipulation, so desperate to believe that he would have a chance at redemption through the son of Rhaegar.

It is entirely possible; however, there is one thing that largely scuppers the thought of such a masquerade for me is whole idea of why would Varys and Illyrio feel the need to do it.

Why would they need to put a decade-long ploy into action to produce another Targaryen when there was already Viserys and Daenerys?

You could argue that they were worried about the kind of monster Viserys would become and I suppose they might have seen signs in his early adolescence. Or that Varys and Illyrio are truly out to be the powers behind the throne themselves by creating their own monarch.

That all just seems like a bit of a stretch to me and another unnecessary twist - although not one I would put passed GRRM.
 
There is an idea floating around that Illyrio's wife was a Blackfyre, who are only extinct in the male line, and that baby Aegon is the offspring of their union, or to use terms I would actually use, is their kid. Whether his wife is a Blackfyre or no, it still is convincing, Illyrio is a proper soppy bastard around this kid. I'd say JonCon is unreliable in that he is simply being duped, not lying to us the readers, because that would be impossible, obviously there is a bit of Sansa Stark history clouding in there as well, the Hound never kissed her at the Blackwater, but she certainly thinks he did. Things like that crop up from time to time. Whatever the reasons, we are on the same lines here, he believes something that isn't true.

If you like foreshadowing, check out the story of the Dragon sign on the inn, it left these shores a black Dragon but washed back up red. Bit of a reach though, I'll admit.

Also, the Golden Company is awfully convenient, add in that they were not at all surprised at JonCon's revelation and I am already thinking they know more than he does. Would they ally with Targs just because they have Blackfyre blood in them? I dunno, obviously if you've read Dunc and Egg you'll be more doubtful, since that whole shitstorm is elaborated on a bit more.

Anyway, the clues are there to support whatever you think, so if Aegon does go on to be any way successful then I doubt we'll ever know for sure, if he does for Dany or especially if she does for him, we'll never know for sure. Though I am convinced neither will take the Throne in the end, GRRM has stated that it'll be someone surprising, but I can't see Aegon getting passed Dany and Dany wouldn't be surprising.

Part of me wants him to win, and then have it revealed in a final POV (perhaps Varys with Illyrio turning on him) that the kid is just his own, and that he's planted his son on the Iron Throne and fucked up Targs, Blackfyres and Baratheons in the process.
 
Looking at the royal succession can be fun.

Say Tommen and Myrcella were to die, who exactly is the next in line?

By right of succession and accepting the official story of their parentage, it is back to Stannis again as their uncle through the royal bloodline. That of course leads to another of our previous suggestions that the Iron Throne will eventually pass to Shireen and her consort, Rickon Stark...

But it is likely that his having rebelled against the Throne would see Stannis and his heirs removed from 'official' line, so where would the childless deaths of Tommen and Myrcella leave us?

With the Lannister cause now largely in the hands of Cersei, dear knows who she might try to elevate to the throne, if not herself.
 
Not my strong suit... Well, Stannis will have a problem with the Seven as well as being a rebel, although being the user and abuser he is he might consent to accept and be annointed by them. And you can't doubt that he is a Baratheon. And he seems convinced that the realm would send for him after Joffrey's death.

Yeah, I would guess Cersie with a pre ship stealing Auranne Waters as her consort. Or perhaps even an Estermont if the Lannisters are found incapable. Or would that be a bit extreme?
 
With her family broke and light on numbers, you would think she would have to find herself a better ally than a bastard like Aurane Waters. But the way she has gone in the books since Jaime jilted her, I would say she would think she could run the whole show by herself, thinking she is her father in female form, completely blitzed and opening her legs for whomever she feels the political need.

When she inevitably makes an absolute horlicks of things and gets deposed, those left in power might be glad of anyone - Stannis and his red woman, Daenerys and her dragons or Rhaegar's boy and his stone protector.
 
Line of succession is amusing indeed. In a way the point of the series seems to be to show that "lines of succession" are in fact bullshit propagated by whoever's in power to ensure that they keep that power.

Because the line of succession changes based on who you are loyal to.

In terms of Targaryen, Baratheon and Lannister all are pretenders, so Aegon > Daenerys > then Stannis (remember Baratheons were accepted on the throne due to a Targaryen grandmother or something).

From Rh'llor Baratheon point of view, it's Stannis > Shireen > end.

From Lannister-Baratheon point of view, the succession still comes from the Baratheon side and so should go Tommen > Stannis (before Myrcella, she is a girl) > Myrcella > Shireen. This is according to the British rules I'm used to before they removed the gender inequality last year, which is what seems to apply in Westeros. So in the Stark line to Winterfell, if Benjen hadn't joined the watch, he would be behind Rickon but ahead of Sansa (confusing!)

But of course as Barbosa suggested, Cersei as regent could disinherit Stannis and his kin, and the line of succession would I suppose then have to go Tommen > nearest Baratheon cousin or uncle > nearest Lannister uncle/cousin (fuck) > Myrcella. Unless Cersei fights with the council and septons/whatever to get Myrcella ahead in the succession.
 
I am unsure if it is ever stated directly what kind of succession rules govern the Iron Throne aside from that it is sons of any age before daughters.

Considering that Tommen's current heir is listed as Myrcella rather than Stannis, my guess is that it is governed by agnatic primogeniture (females can inherit but only when there are no males of the main line) rather than full Salic law (complete exclusion of females); although this proves little given that we do not know if Stannis has been officially removed from the succession or what position he would have held, before or after Myrcella. My though though is that she comes before her uncle.

In proper succession terms, the Lannister side of the royal family have no claim to the throne whatsoever as they have no royal blood. But then removing Stannis and Shireen, I don't think that there are any Baratheons of royal blood left either unless Robert's father, Steffon, had any unknown brothers, whose family the crown would pass to in the event of Stannis' removal.

If Steffon was an only child or the line through any potential siblings (aunts and uncles to Robert, Stannis and Renly) is extinguished, the line then goes back another generation, which gives you non-royal Baratheons on one side and the Targaryen line on the other.

Therefore, due to the lack of numbers of the Baratheon family and because they drew their right from the marriage of Robert's grandfather to Rhaelle Targaryen, should Stannis and Shireen be disinherited due to his rebellion, the actual heir to Iron Throne in the 'official' sense becomes Aegon or Daenerys as the surviving descendants of the common ancestor shared with Robert's "children," Aegon V.
 
^ But then again that's kind of my point Barbs. Salic law is all well and good - until the King says otherwise. As soon as the apparent ultimate power goes, "my heir is ..." then all other laws concerning it go out the window. I feel like that's part of what Martin is trying to say. The face of power is the deciding factor.

Learned some cool stuff and terminology from you though dude, thanks for the informative post
 
Oh, the law could change alright, with Cersei thrusting the pen into Tommen's hand perhaps, although that does not change the need for legitimacy that royal blood bestows. It is why Robert Baratheon ended up on the Throne rather than Ned Stark or Jon Arryn.

I was just talking about how the law might stand right now and as it turns out, we are not all that sure, while the lack of branches on either of the surviving royal families means that there are few who have any legitimate claim beyond the current king (and the law might reduce that even further should there be no female inheritance). Five at most, although potentially all of them could be disqualified for various reasons - Stannis for his rebellion and perhaps religion; Shireen for the same reasons plus her being female and an abomination; Myrcella for being a girl, perhaps for being physically maimed and of course not a Baratheon); Aegon for potentially not being Aegon and Daenerys for being a girl and because of Aegon.

The talk of royal blood also got me thinking about the numerous royal bastards floating around Westeros and Essos, actual or rumoured - Gendry, Mya Stone, Edric Storm and the rumoured Targaryen roots of Jon Snow and even Tyrion.

Not only might the Red Woman be after them but so might the royal powers in need of some actual royal blood to infuse their ranks with. All it would take for new challengers to the Iron Throne to appear would be for them to be legitimised in some way by the king.

Although why would Tommen want to conjure up another Blackfyre Rebellion...
 
I read somewhere, I can't remember where, but that its a form of Salic law, girls can't inherit if there is an available male, so if Joffrey and co are unquestioned, then he and Tommen come before Stannis, Myrcella after Stannis. Provided what I read is true.

Of course, as well all know, thats the law in theory, most likely in the events of Joff and Tommen dying, as well as Robert, then Cersie and Stannis go to war, the former as Myrcella's champion, and I imagine both sides will find plenty of allies due to their beliefs or whatever they're being offered.
 
I read somewhere, I can't remember where, but that its a form of Salic law, girls can't inherit if there is an available male, so if Joffrey and co are unquestioned, then he and Tommen come before Stannis, Myrcella after Stannis. Provided what I read is true.

Seems you were right

"After the Dance of Dragons, the Targaryens revised the official royal succession laws to follow an extreme form of agnatic primogeniture, placing female heirs behind all possible male ones, i.e. if all of a king's sons died childless, his own younger brothers would inherit instead of his daughters (their nieces)."

http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/King_of_the_Andals_and_the_First_Men

There has also been plenty of chat about the succession to the Iron Throne

http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1yg1as/question_about_the_line_of_succession_spoilers_all/
 
So one of my guilty pleasures on my days off is to trawl through a bunch of WhatCulture articles. I thought I had pretty much been through all their Thrones related articles but I was reading one earlier about 13 missing characters and the roles they may play in the future. (In the future of the books, I should mention)

One character mentioned was Aurane Waters and a theory that they will be revealed as the new Pirate King in King's Landing and siding with Stannis again. The theory relates to a seemingly non-sensical line sung by Patchface and I have to say, I hope this turns out to be true:

“We WILL march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.”

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85470-how-stannis-will-win-the-iron-throne/
 
I'm watching season 2 at the moment and just saw something that I had completely forgotten about; the masked lady who talks to Jorah in Qarth. I'm guessing that it doesn't matter who she is but it's a bit of a fucking random appearance by a non-character, no?
 
I'm watching season 2 at the moment and just saw something that I had completely forgotten about; the masked lady who talks to Jorah in Qarth. I'm guessing that it doesn't matter who she is but it's a bit of a fucking random appearance by a non-character, no?

Quaithe?
 
Gesundheit.

But no, I don't know her name so that's probably right. Does she pop up again elsewhere? I can't remember.

Dany definitely talks to a masked woman at some point.. or not? I struggle with the show more than the books. Without looking up the clip, that'd be my guess.
 

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