I've always hated the MLB playoff system, perhaps because I've found it to be too exclusive. I know, the addition of a second Wild Card team technically brings the field up to 10. However, for two of those teams, it's essentially the same as the play-in game in the NCAA tourament. The real games don't start until the divisional series, when four best-of-five series' begin the march towards the World Series. And with my Buccos defeating Cincinnati 6-2 Tuesday, and Tampa Bay shutting out Cleveland 4-0 last night, we're down to the Elite 8 of baseball. I'll start a new thread for the respective league championships when we're down to four, so use this thread for the Divisional Series' only.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: Red Sox in 4. In what would almost(nah
) be a close second to the Pirates returning to the playoffs would be both the exclusion of the Yankees and Red Sox. One out of two isn't bad, but the Red Sox will win the World Series, I believe, if they're the AL representative. That being said, they've struggled quite a bit down the stretch, while the Rays have won three 'lose or go home' games just in the past week.
With that being said, pitching has been a virtual wash between the two teams this season, with TB holding the 5th best ERA in the AL to Boston's sixth...... .05 runs per game better. TB has also doubled Boston in Complete Games and Shutouts both, but those numbers have been inflated by Matt Moore's gigantic year. I like the Red Sox rotation better from top to bottom, as Lester, Lackey, Peavy and Buckholz are a better top 4, overall.
Where I truly give the BoSox the edge is in the batters box. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia all bounced back from injury plagued seasons, while Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino both stayed healthy as well and had very good seasons. Tampa Bay has been resilient, and their pitching and hitting solid both, but they're ultimately overmatched by the Red Sox.
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: Tigers in three. When the Pirates faced off against Detroit in a four game, home and home interleague series, the teams combined to score just 21 runs in those four games. In the American League, no team, and certainly not Oakland, has the pitching that Detroit does, especially Max Scherzer with his major league best 21 wins, and Anibal Sanchez with one of if not the top ERA's among AL starters. That's a phenomenal 1-2 punch, and they have Justin Verlander as their third starter. Remember him? You know, the guy who won the CY Young in the A.L. in 2011, and was runner up in 2012?
If any team has a chance of simply overwhelming another with its pitching in a best-of-five, it's the Tigers, especially against these Oakland starters. Bartolo Colon has been great, but behind him, the rotation is quite inexperienced, which will play a major role in deciding the length of the series. I don't see much doubt in the outcome, Detroit will win here, it's simply in 'how many'.
The Athletics line-up is potent, but Detroit has them here as well. The A's have gotten the most out of less talent, as 3B Josh Donaldson and Alberto Collaspo have been their only true stars. The rest have been moving parts and cast-offs from other teams. Detroit's lineup is better than any lineup other than Boston, with no real weak spots. The middle, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez is arguably the best hitting trio in baseball.
On paper, this appears to be a landslide. Oakland has been resilient and has gotten the most from lesser talent all season, but facing the top hitting and pitching trios both will be too much for them. They'll be lucky to win a game, in fact, I'm calling the sweep.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers in 5. While I could see both A.L. series' ending prematurely, I believe it's just as likely both N.L. series' will go five games.
Lineup wise, I'll take the Dodgers, slightly. Overall, they've shown themselves to be the more consistent team. Upon the return of Jason Heyward and his insertion into the leadoff spot, the Braves offense has been much better as hes been the catalyst they've been missing all year. It's for me to believe that the once incredibly dangerous B.J. Upton won't likely even start for Atlanta, but re-uniting he with his brother has turned out to be a mistake. Overall, 1-5 of the Braves roster have been very good over the past month, as they've helped Atlanta pull away and tie the Dodgers for baseball's best record. Chris Johnson has paced them in B.A., while Freddie Freeman leads them with RBI's, and Justin Upton with HR's. They're a difficult lineup to pitch to, because despite their inconsistencies, there's not an easy out 1-8.
Having said that, I like the Dodgers lineup slightly better, and this lineup would be downright scary if Andre Either and Matt Kemp were healthy. Still, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez have been one of the better 3-4 combinations in the entire season, and Yasiel Puig, for all his antics and immaturity, has shown himself to already be the top leadoff hitter in baseball. The only true deficits in their lineup have come from A.J. and Mark Ellis, so again, imagine them with a healthy Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.
None of this should matter, as the winner of this series will be determined by one thing: Can the Braves steal one game from Clayton Kershaw? If no, that's a guaranteed two losses, and Zach Greinke isn't shabby at #2, nor Ricky Nolasco at 3. Can Kris Medlen or Julio Teheran, the Braves top 2, win one against Kershaw? Yes, both have been excellent all year, but neither has playoff experience. Against the top pitcher in baseball, it won't be enough, and hence, Dodgers in 5.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Pirates in 5. I like to think I'm going completely with my head here, but I can't lie: I was born and raised for the 31 years+ of my life on Pirates, Steelers, and Penguins, and was TEN the last time the Pirates made the playoffs. And while my rooting interest certainly is affecting my decision, But I also believe in this team.
Pitching-wise, I'll take likely second in Cy Young voting Francisco Liriano and veteran AJ Burnett, the latter whom, despite a sub-.500 record, has a fantastic E.R.A. Charlie Morton is finally 100% after having Tommy John surgery last May, with an ERA also in the low 3.00's. Rookie Gerritt Cole is becoming a pitcher more and more rather then a thrower with every star, and All-Star Jeff Locke is now the Pirates fifth starter. They have incredible depth, pitching wise, and with Tony Watson/Justin Wilson setting up from the left side and All-Stars Marc Melancon and closer Jason Grilli from the right, there really isn't a better bullpen in baseball.
Losing Chris Carpenter for the season hurt St. Louis' rotation, as they'll be relying on very good but not spectacular SP's outside of Adam Wainright, who's among the league's best. Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha all have been steady, but they simply aren't as talented a rotation as the Pirates are. Their bullpen has likely been the Pirates equal, as late season acquisition Jon Axford is a former dominant closer, now set-up man, and Edward Mujica was dominant as a closer.
Overall, I'll take the Pirates pitching, as the Cards have 3 rookies in their rotation, while the Pirates top 3 are proven veterans.
I give the Cardinals a slight edge in the hitting department, but the gap is far smaller then it was 2 months ago. Andrew McCutcheon is an MVP candidate, Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau were gotten for peanuts and have brought veteran leadership, power and RBI's to the middle of the order, while Russell Martin was a great free agent signing to catch in the offseason, and he's hit for pop as well.
Still, it's edge St.Louis. Matt Carpenter is an excellent lead-off hitter and MVP candidate, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday may be the best hitting outfield in baseball, and Yadier Molina has become a great hitter in his 30's. Former World Series MVP David Freese plays 3B, and Matt Adams has been crushing the ball since taking over for the injured Allen Craig.
This will be a fun series for me no matter what, as it's postseason baseball in Pittsburgh. But the Pirates won the season series against the Cardinals, and they're a better team now because of Morneau and Byrd. Buccos win this.
American League:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: Red Sox in 4. In what would almost(nah
) be a close second to the Pirates returning to the playoffs would be both the exclusion of the Yankees and Red Sox. One out of two isn't bad, but the Red Sox will win the World Series, I believe, if they're the AL representative. That being said, they've struggled quite a bit down the stretch, while the Rays have won three 'lose or go home' games just in the past week. With that being said, pitching has been a virtual wash between the two teams this season, with TB holding the 5th best ERA in the AL to Boston's sixth...... .05 runs per game better. TB has also doubled Boston in Complete Games and Shutouts both, but those numbers have been inflated by Matt Moore's gigantic year. I like the Red Sox rotation better from top to bottom, as Lester, Lackey, Peavy and Buckholz are a better top 4, overall.
Where I truly give the BoSox the edge is in the batters box. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia all bounced back from injury plagued seasons, while Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino both stayed healthy as well and had very good seasons. Tampa Bay has been resilient, and their pitching and hitting solid both, but they're ultimately overmatched by the Red Sox.
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: Tigers in three. When the Pirates faced off against Detroit in a four game, home and home interleague series, the teams combined to score just 21 runs in those four games. In the American League, no team, and certainly not Oakland, has the pitching that Detroit does, especially Max Scherzer with his major league best 21 wins, and Anibal Sanchez with one of if not the top ERA's among AL starters. That's a phenomenal 1-2 punch, and they have Justin Verlander as their third starter. Remember him? You know, the guy who won the CY Young in the A.L. in 2011, and was runner up in 2012?
If any team has a chance of simply overwhelming another with its pitching in a best-of-five, it's the Tigers, especially against these Oakland starters. Bartolo Colon has been great, but behind him, the rotation is quite inexperienced, which will play a major role in deciding the length of the series. I don't see much doubt in the outcome, Detroit will win here, it's simply in 'how many'.
The Athletics line-up is potent, but Detroit has them here as well. The A's have gotten the most out of less talent, as 3B Josh Donaldson and Alberto Collaspo have been their only true stars. The rest have been moving parts and cast-offs from other teams. Detroit's lineup is better than any lineup other than Boston, with no real weak spots. The middle, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez is arguably the best hitting trio in baseball.
On paper, this appears to be a landslide. Oakland has been resilient and has gotten the most from lesser talent all season, but facing the top hitting and pitching trios both will be too much for them. They'll be lucky to win a game, in fact, I'm calling the sweep.
National League
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers in 5. While I could see both A.L. series' ending prematurely, I believe it's just as likely both N.L. series' will go five games.
Lineup wise, I'll take the Dodgers, slightly. Overall, they've shown themselves to be the more consistent team. Upon the return of Jason Heyward and his insertion into the leadoff spot, the Braves offense has been much better as hes been the catalyst they've been missing all year. It's for me to believe that the once incredibly dangerous B.J. Upton won't likely even start for Atlanta, but re-uniting he with his brother has turned out to be a mistake. Overall, 1-5 of the Braves roster have been very good over the past month, as they've helped Atlanta pull away and tie the Dodgers for baseball's best record. Chris Johnson has paced them in B.A., while Freddie Freeman leads them with RBI's, and Justin Upton with HR's. They're a difficult lineup to pitch to, because despite their inconsistencies, there's not an easy out 1-8.
Having said that, I like the Dodgers lineup slightly better, and this lineup would be downright scary if Andre Either and Matt Kemp were healthy. Still, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez have been one of the better 3-4 combinations in the entire season, and Yasiel Puig, for all his antics and immaturity, has shown himself to already be the top leadoff hitter in baseball. The only true deficits in their lineup have come from A.J. and Mark Ellis, so again, imagine them with a healthy Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.
None of this should matter, as the winner of this series will be determined by one thing: Can the Braves steal one game from Clayton Kershaw? If no, that's a guaranteed two losses, and Zach Greinke isn't shabby at #2, nor Ricky Nolasco at 3. Can Kris Medlen or Julio Teheran, the Braves top 2, win one against Kershaw? Yes, both have been excellent all year, but neither has playoff experience. Against the top pitcher in baseball, it won't be enough, and hence, Dodgers in 5.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Pirates in 5. I like to think I'm going completely with my head here, but I can't lie: I was born and raised for the 31 years+ of my life on Pirates, Steelers, and Penguins, and was TEN the last time the Pirates made the playoffs. And while my rooting interest certainly is affecting my decision, But I also believe in this team.
Pitching-wise, I'll take likely second in Cy Young voting Francisco Liriano and veteran AJ Burnett, the latter whom, despite a sub-.500 record, has a fantastic E.R.A. Charlie Morton is finally 100% after having Tommy John surgery last May, with an ERA also in the low 3.00's. Rookie Gerritt Cole is becoming a pitcher more and more rather then a thrower with every star, and All-Star Jeff Locke is now the Pirates fifth starter. They have incredible depth, pitching wise, and with Tony Watson/Justin Wilson setting up from the left side and All-Stars Marc Melancon and closer Jason Grilli from the right, there really isn't a better bullpen in baseball.
Losing Chris Carpenter for the season hurt St. Louis' rotation, as they'll be relying on very good but not spectacular SP's outside of Adam Wainright, who's among the league's best. Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha all have been steady, but they simply aren't as talented a rotation as the Pirates are. Their bullpen has likely been the Pirates equal, as late season acquisition Jon Axford is a former dominant closer, now set-up man, and Edward Mujica was dominant as a closer.
Overall, I'll take the Pirates pitching, as the Cards have 3 rookies in their rotation, while the Pirates top 3 are proven veterans.
I give the Cardinals a slight edge in the hitting department, but the gap is far smaller then it was 2 months ago. Andrew McCutcheon is an MVP candidate, Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau were gotten for peanuts and have brought veteran leadership, power and RBI's to the middle of the order, while Russell Martin was a great free agent signing to catch in the offseason, and he's hit for pop as well.
Still, it's edge St.Louis. Matt Carpenter is an excellent lead-off hitter and MVP candidate, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday may be the best hitting outfield in baseball, and Yadier Molina has become a great hitter in his 30's. Former World Series MVP David Freese plays 3B, and Matt Adams has been crushing the ball since taking over for the injured Allen Craig.
This will be a fun series for me no matter what, as it's postseason baseball in Pittsburgh. But the Pirates won the season series against the Cardinals, and they're a better team now because of Morneau and Byrd. Buccos win this.
