Let's do some predictions:
okay...
Michael Elgin (2nd BOLA) vs. Rich Swann (1st BOLA)
Elgin's the more established talent and actually matters in the company. Swann doesn't, Elgin goes over.
I definitely see Elgin going over here as well. Swann(along side Ricochet) has been putting on great matches, but the wins haven't been there.
Willie Mack (3rd BOLA) vs. Johnny Gargano (1st BOLA)
Willie Mack is barely getting booked anymore. I believe Gargano's a rising star so he goes over.
Neither guy has been having much success, but I agree, Gargano has the upside and needs this victory.
Kevin Steen (7th BOLA) vs. Chuck Taylor (3rd BOLA)
One's the biggest star in the indies, the other threw imaginary grenades in a now dead company. Steen wins.
Chuckie T is actually turning into a hell of an act across the board and shouldn't be slept on, but Steen is definitely the logical pick here.
Anthony Nese (1st BOLA) vs. ACH (1st BOLA, PWG debut)
Who? Nese wins because who wins their debut match?
If you haven't seen ACH yet you're missing out, he's had great matches in ROH all year both in singles and with partner TD Thomas(as Adrenaline Rush). This is the sleeper match of the first round, should yield fireworks. I'll go with Nese as well, but only because ROH can't win all of these cross-promotional pairings, can they?
Kyle OReilly (2nd BOLA) vs. Trent? (1st BOLA)
Kyle's an established name. Trent's a WWE reject who didn't get over well at his last PWG event. They're smarter than to have him go over.
Kyle is on a serious run in PWG, I can't see that stopping this soon.
Roderick Strong (8th BOLA) vs. AR Fox (1st BOLA)
Strong matters, therefore he wins.
Roddy probably goes over due to his longstanding with the company, either guy will be second round fodder though. I'm still not overly impressed by AR Fox.
Joey Ryan (7th BOLA, 2010 Winner) vs. Drake Younger (2nd BOLA) Ryan is a big name in PWG. He sucks but he goes over.
Now that would be an UPSET, maybe the biggest ever in this tourney's first round. Ryan is included for nostalgia reasons, while Younger has to be looked at as the favorite to win the whole thing. If Drake jobbed this quick Reseda would riot.
Brian Cage (3rd BOLA) vs. Tommaso Ciampa (1st BOLA, PWG debut)
Cage is relevant. Ciampa is a newcomer to PWG. Cage goes over
Cage is probably in the same limbo that Mack is in, while Ciampa brings a fresh dynamic into the tournament. He could be a hit with Reseda and will probably get a second round shot before bowing out.
Round 2:
Elgin vs Gargano
Elgin matters, therefore he wins.
Steen vs Nese
See: Above matchm replace Elgin with Steen.
Kyle vs Strong
I flipped a coin
Ryan vs Cage
Because Ryan has to have his comedy match with Candice on night 2. Also, everyone else in round 3 has already gone deep in BOLAs before, and someone's got to play underdog.
I'm not sure how the second round matchups will shake out, but you're probably on the right track with the winners.
The most likely final four in some fashion is O'Reilly, Elgin, Steen, Younger.
Semis
Elgin vs Steen
In any match in the indies I always assume Steen wins. Also, if Elgin wins it's an ROH guy vs ROH guy final. Not happening. Steen doesn't count.
Kyle vs Cage
I like Cage but he's never going to be a star. He's never going to be put over anyone more important than himself. And he shouldn't be. Kyle goes over.
I'm predicting the final four matches will shake out to:
Steen vs. Younger
They have been the two guys challenging for the belt. They have put on some crazy performances against each other recently. Steen is arguably the long time most over guy in the company, while Younger is challenging for that crown. Steen/Drake one more time seems logical. Winning could be Steen's last chance to challenge for the belt, but Drake needs it more and I see him moving to the final.
and
O'Reilly vs. Elgin
This I want for selfish reasons. Any time these two share the ring they tear the house down. The ROH 2011 SOTF finale is the greatest example as their battle as the final two standing in last elimination match was historically incredible action. If they do their thing in front of the Reseda crowd, the results could be phenomenal. And unlike their ROH matches I could see Kyle overcoming the huge man and moving on(the same way he was able to overcome the Davey obstacle in PWG despite multiple failings in ROH).
Final
Steen vs Kyle
I flipped a coin.
Younger vs. O'Reilly
I agree with you and Dragon Saga. Kyle will take this. In PWG he is on the biggest role of his career. He and Cole going one-on-one for the belt with their history as partners, their chemistry in matches together etc. writes itself. If they could outdo their BITW 2012 match they may flirt with five stars.
Drake would also be a worthy champ though and it would be the only fair way to get him another shot at Cole so quickly, a match that would surely give the company a new champ. He would definitely be the crowd favorite and yield an amazing moment for the fans.