I was inspired to do this because of a segment on the year's last MBL Tonight, where the analysts did a breakdown of their expectations for the new season even though it's very early. Yes, there are a number of free agents remaining to sign, and depending on what some of those free agents do, there could be trades to make. We don't know where Michael Bourn or Kyle Lohse will play; we know some of the Dodgers' starters will be on the move, and so forth. But we have a rough idea of the season as it stands, and we can endeavor to make some predictions already. I'd love to see everyone's thoughts on this: here are mine.
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
It's hard to pick against them. They remade their rotation by adding three "aces" - not guys who I would conventionally call aces, but can have pitched like them. Dickey is hard to predict and old, but for three years he's been a strong pitcher and last year was a Cy Young winner. It's also well documented that he pitches very well inside domed stadiums, which will aid him greatly when he makes half his starts in Toronto, plus one of his division rivals, the Rays, also play inside a dome. They added Mark Buehrle, who's thrown over 200 innings for over 10 years straight. He's extremely consistent, and it's hard not to imagine him replicating his career numbers in Toronto. Quietly, Josh Johnson turned in a great rebound campaign in 2012, and his peripherals suggest he could do even better in 2013. He may turn out to the best acquisition of all of them. If the Jays can also add a full season of Brandon Morrow and some sort of rebound from Ricky Romero, their rotation will be very, very dangerous. Bullpens are hard to predict, but theirs was solid in 2012 and the main pieces will all return, along with the addition of Sergio Santos back from injury. I wouldn't put it past the Jays to add a reliever like Rafael Soriano either.
Their lineup remains dangerous; Reyes now leads off, Bautista should be healthy, Lawrie should rebound at the plate while turning in Gold Glove defense at third, and while Encarnacion might take a step back from his excellent 2012, he should still be dangerous.
Compared to the competition, the Jays just stack up better. The Yankees have a lot of question marks coming out of the 2012 playoffs. Will Granderson return to form? Will Jeter be there for Opening Day, or spring training? If he misses training, how good will he be? Can the back of their rotation get it done - will Nova and Hughes ever live up to their potential? Will Mariano Rivera be the same? With so much money tied up in a lot of players, the Yankees can't address their needs anymore. Signing Kevin Youkilis will help, but he is an aging veteran. And when Rodriguez returns, will he be a positive contributor for the Yankees? He's been steadily declining for years now, and returning from injury is bound to make that worse. The Yankees have enough firepower to be good in 2013, but I just don't know if they can match the Blue Jays pound for pound.
The Rays are still very good; they got screwed over in 2012 a bit by some bad luck, with the Orioles absurd overperformance (their Pythagorean W/L was 82-80). They were the second best team in their division in 2012 and should have gone to the playoffs; had they had a full season of Evan Longoria, the odds are they would have won the division. Most would say the Blue Jays job is to dethrone the Yankees, but really, it's to fight off the scrappy Rays. They traded James Shields to add more long term insurance, with the great bat of Wil Myers on its way. Will they make up his production? Maybe not entirely through pitching alone, but they will get a good bit of it back by giving those innings to some very talented young pitchers. The rest of it will probably return in value from Myers himself, who should probably come up a la Mike Trout in 2012; starting in AAA, then coming up in May. Myers will probably not hit for average right away, but should provide raw power. He won't be a dominant contributor in 2013, most likely, but he should figure it out and could surprise us all. I think losing Shields and Davis is acceptable for the Rays in terms of immediate production, and they'll certainly get more out of it in the long run. The Rays may have trouble hanging onto David Price as his arbitration salaries get more and more expensive, but they should be able to keep him for the 2013 season at least.
The Red Sox have done a lot this offseason, but I don't think it amounts to much. They'll be competitive, but they haven't added nearly enough to let them recover from their blockbuster with the Dodgers. I can see them fighting to .500, but they won't win this one. They're a few years away and they need to let their top prospects develop before they can really compete again in the AL East. If their pitching staff rebounds strongly, they could surprise people, but I just don't see it happening.
The Orioles, I'm afraid, were a fluke. They overperformed by a country mile, and it's completely unsustainable. Making it worse is the fact that their division got better while they did nothing. The Orioles will most likely finish in last place in 2013. It's a shame, and I'm glad they had the run they did - I wish they could have won the division to have something to show for it. But, they didn't, and so here we are. It will not be a good year for the Orioles.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers
You can't really pick anyone else, can you? The Tigers are good. Very good. They have maybe the best 1-5 hitters in the league in 2013 - Jackson, Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder, and Martinez. That will keep pitchers up at night. Their rotation looks better with Sanchez in it permanently, behind Verlander and maybe ahead of Fister. The back of it has its concerns, as they continue to discuss trading Porcello, which would leave us questions about Smyly - but, Smyly could be just as good as Porcello. In the end, this might be the best rotation in the AL. With an improved offense, they seem to be once again definite favorites for the AL Central crown in 2013.
The Chicago White Sox should have won the division in 2012, based on run differentials and Pythagorean W/L. Does that mean they're serious contenders in 2013? Well, the Tigers got a lot better, and the White Sox haven't. They've lost their production at catcher with the loss of Pierzynski and have a lot of question at third once again. Alex Rios was their best position player in 2012, but he's an anomaly - is he really that good? I think not. They can probably count on Alexei Ramirez to bounce back a little, but they have to be concerned by the creeping decline of Paul Konerko as he nears the end of the line. Their rotation is unpredictable - it's hard to say if Sale will be as good as he was in 2012 as it was his first season as a starter. With Peavy coming back from injury, it's equally hard to say if he's also still that good. Things drop off after that and leave a lot of question marks, and their cobbled together 2012 bullpen may not be as good again. The White Sox are hard to predict, but I don't see them making it in the end.
The Royals got a lot better in the short term, adding James Shields, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie to a brand new rotation that will look almost nothing like what it did on 2012's Opening Day. It's a good one, though not without questions. How good is Davis as a starter? Can Santana rebound? If those outcomes are positive, the Royals will have a competitive rotation. If not, they'll be in trouble behind ace James Shields, arguably the only sure thing in the rotation. Their lineup has huge potential if Hosmer and Moustakas can turn in big campaigns. They'll be aided by getting Salvador Perez for the whole year. Their bullpen could be very good as they have some dominant middle relievers but no "proven" closer; they will probably turn to Greg Holland, but it's hard to say how good he'll be. With good management, they'll be able to get by. The Royals need to take a big step forward in 2013 to go places, and they have the chance to do so; if they all live up to their potential, they could upset the Tigers.
The Indians are ambiguous. They were very, very, very, VERY bad in 2012. How bad? Their run differential was worse than every team but one - the Astros. Our 68-94 was an overperformance, unbelievably - they should have been closer to 64-98. This is nearly a 100 loss team that is trying to contend in 2013. Can it be done? Probably not, but we've seen crazier things. The Athletic should have been awful in 2012, but weren't - and not because of total flukes like the Orioles, but because their talent was all better than expected. It's not impossible that the Indians could do the same, but in a suddenly competitive division, it won't be easy. Their rotation has a great many questions - Masterson is at least consistent, and we should be able to expect the performance of a decent #3 starter out of it. Unfortunately, he's being asked to be the #1 - not a good thing. I'm desperately hoping they can scrounge up some more money and get Kyle Lohse, but as it stands, they haven't got him. Jimenez is a walking corpse at this point - it's obvious he'll never be good without his velocity back, and there's no sign of it so far. McAllister is a decent pitcher who would fit nicely as a 5 or maybe a 4 in many rotations...but not a 3, as he is for this one. The question marks are Carlos Carrasco, a guy with loads of talent who was looking good in 2011 before going down for Tommy John's, and Trevor Bauer, the quirky yet elite prospect. Can they both become the dominant pitchers they promise to be in 2013? If so, this could be a very different conversation. Mediocre infield defense is also problematic - only Kipnis could be expected to be a positive defensive influence on the infield in 2013, while Cabrera, Chisenhall, and Reynolds are all below average at their positions. Fortunately, the Indians do have a great defensive outfield of Brantley, Stubbs, and Swisher, so maybe if the pitching staff can try to induce safe fly balls (think Matt Cain) there could be success in the defense of this team. On the bright side, the offense looks solid. The new additions include Stubbs, who will steal at least 30 bases in 2013 more than likely, Reynolds, who can hit for major power (though he might struggle in Progressive Field), and all around great hitter Nick Swisher. Meanwhile we still have Cabrera, Kipnis, and Brantley, who were all positive offensive forces in 2012, and Santana is poised to break out after a small sophomore slump. Lonnie Chisenhall could hit very well in 2013 as well, and it is do or die time for the prospect. The Indians best hope is that they magically come together like the Athletics did - not a powerful hope, but it is hope, nonetheless.
The Twins are hard to figure out right now. They traded away Span and Revere for somewhat mediocre returns. Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Vance Worley are all good, but Span and Revere were two of the Twins better players. Their outfield is now a mess; while Josh Willingham will return, they'll be forced to turn to Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee. Mastroianni is fast, and could be a good leadoff hitter if his OBP is high, but Parmelee doesn't project as much in 2013. The Twins bullpen is also perplexing and doesn't feature much. It's hard to expect much more out of the Twins than another low finish below .500.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
How can you pick against them? Sure, it was justifiable in 2012, with the Rangers still looking great and questions about how the new team would gel, but the new Angels offense has had a year of experience together and their biggest acquisition was the addition of elite prospect Mike Trout, who was the best player in the bigs in 2012 and could be again in 2013. Add Josh Hamilton to this lineup and it's just unbelievably good. If they ever get over their fascination with hitting Aybar second and put him ninth where he belongs, the Angels could have a better 1-5 than the Tigers. What kept the Angels out of the playoffs last year was an unpredictable rotation implosion. A totally new rotation will hopefully remain consistent. Weaver will still be an ace, while Wilson should turn in a nice season. Hanson, Blanton, and Vargas should be consistent arms at the back of the rotation and can hopefully keep the run scored down and allow the offense to win them games. Their bullpen will also help this endeavor; the addition of Burnett and Madson will strengthen it. This is a top to bottom great team and I just can't pick against them in 2013.
The Rangers meanwhile continue to decline. For the second straight year a top contributor has signed with their rivals. It was Wilson first, and now it's Hamilton. They also lose Mike Napoli, who together account for over 50 home runs. They first reality that needs to be faced is they probably aren't getting 50 home runs back. While Pierzynski and Soto together might actually make up Napoli's total, you just don't replace Josh Hamilton easily. As it stands, the Rangers have good corner outfielders, but questions at center. Craig Gentry is pretty good, and Leonys Martin is a nice prospect, but the Rangers, I think, have got to commit to winning now. They need to either sign Michael Bourn or pony up and move Profar. Profar for Upton would have been a fair deal, though it doesn't seem like the Diamonbacks are inclined to make it now. They should try to convince the Marlins to part with Stanton for Profar, perhaps by also absorbing Nolasco's salary. Somehow, they need to add a strong outfielder. If they hang onto Profar, it would he wise to move Kinsler to first and let Profar play second, as it's high time he started to get Major League at bats. The Rangers rotation looks solid, led by Darvish; if it stays healthy, it'll be competitive. The bullpen also looks very strong right now, especially if Feliz returns to it (and he probably should). If the Rangers add that impact outfielder, they will have a strong chance at winning the AL West, and I would think would be heavy favorites for a wild card spot at least. If not, I can really see them not making the playoffs at all.
The Athletics remain a perplexing team. They earned their division title in 2012; their Pythagorean W/L was the best in the west. But they've remained quiet this winter, while they've lost players. Brandon McCarthy is gone, and there's a big question mark on Brett Anderson's health. Are Parker, Milone, and Griffin really as good as they were in 2012? It's too hard to say just yet, but the inclination I have is no. Nakajima was signed to play short, but his defense is questionable and we've seen a lot of Japanese shortstops fail offensively in the big leagues. Balfour will still be a strong closer, but the Athletics are a team that I'm still not investing a lot of hope in for 2013. Above .500 seems like a safe bet, but playoffs don't.
The Mariners were not that great in 2012, but made some improvements. Kendyrs Morales in the heart of their lineup should be very good for them, but they still need to address some other questions. Who's catching, playing first, and DHing? Can Jesus Montero bounce back from a pretty bad 2012? If he can't, they're in a bad place, as they really needed him for the offense. Raul Ibanez can hopefully add a little pop as well, but he's is really best as part of a platoon. If they add another strong bat like Michael Bourn, they could be in business as they also have some prospects coming along that could make an impact in 2013.
The Astros are still awful. Headed for another 100 loss season. Sorry.
Wild Cards
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
As things stand now, this is who I would take. If the Rangers make the necessary move, though, I would favor them slightly over the Yankees.
National League
NL East
Washington Nationals
I just can't pick against them. I tried to convince myself the Braves would win, and even I don't believe it. They're a young team that had a huge season in 2012; experience and history say that they'll probably take a step back in 2013, not one forward. But it is worth saying that they will have Strasburg for a full season, and that could mean a whole lot for the Nationals. But there are new questions for them in their rotation, namely, is Dan Haren as good as he was prior to his injury? I'll admit, beyond that, they're just fine - they can either re-sign LaRoche and trade Morse, or let Morse play first. Either way, they ought to be fine on that front. Still, something about me doesn't feel this team will quite reach 98 wins again. In the end, they're mostly the same team from last year with a year's experience together. They can win 90+ again in 2013 and take this division.
The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, are also more or less the same team, minus one major player - Chipper Jones. Replacing him right now is Juan Francisco, but the Braves would like to add an outfielder to put Martin Prado at third. Even if they don't, though, the Braves have one of the better offenses in the majors. There are precious few outfielders of merit left on the market, save Michael Bourn from whom they have apparently moved on. They could, perhaps, assemble a cheap platoon out of available options, but they're probably likely to just stick with Francisco. The Braves also boast an impressive rotation and an improved bullpen thanks to the acquisition of Jordan Walden, supplementing a pen that has one of the best relievers in the game in it in Craig Kimbrel. The Braves are good, and they'll fight tooth and nail with the Nationals for this division. Ultimately I picked against them, just based on the last few years of history.
The Phillies are a team that will live or die on the health and productivity of a handful of veterans. If Halladay, Howard, and Utley can show up for the majority of the season and contribute well when they do so, this is a team that can seriously make waves and could take this division back. If not, well, they'll struggle. I think that Halladay will rebound from injury and be about as good as you'd expect, and Lee and Hamels ought to be among the best starters again. The addition of Michael Young and Ben Revere will help the Phillies offense and can help them ride out any injury or time off given to Utley and Howard. The unfortunate suspension to Carlos Ruiz will hurt, and it would seem highly suspect that his statistical surge in 2012 will return once he's clean. The Phillies will probably wind up a .500 team again without long, healthy seasons from Howard and Utley, but if they can turn them in, this division can change really quick.
The Mets will be rebuilding and while they might see some exciting play out of their young prospects, it's unlikely they'll go far in 2013. Their major storyline will probably be Travis D'arnaud and how his Mets debut goes.
Finally, the Marlins suck. Please trade Stanton so the rest of us can enjoy him without watching your terrible baseball team.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
This is going to be a tight division. The Reds are sort of like the Giants; they had a great 2010, a 2011 derailed by injury, and then a major rebound in 2012 that proved they were for real. They added Shin-Soo Choo to lead off, but his offensive contributions may be offset by their apparent intent to play him in center, where his defense is likely going to be poor. Nevertheless, they only gave up Stubbs from their major league roster to acquire him, and the worst case scenario is his isolated output is a wash. Less isolated will be the fact that he'll get on base in front of guys like Votto and Ludwick, which will likely increase their RBI totals. The offense is great. Their rotation is solid, but topheavy. Arroya, Bailey, and Leake are all good but not great. If they add Chapman to the rotation, they'll improve their and probably reap more value than with him as a closer. They can certainly take the hit to their pen with Marshall and Broxton ready to close and set up, respectively. The Reds are just a great team, pure and simple, and they're ready to win this division again.
The Cardinals are their major competition, and they're also pretty damn good. Their offense is a step behind the Reds', in my opinion - while the Reds are great top to bottom, the Cardinals will struggle with speed issues and haven't got a good leadoff man. Their rotation is strong and will easily take the loss of Kyle Lohse with the addition of prospects who are ready to go. Their bullpen will remain intact more than likely, and it should be pretty good. I just don't think they catch up to the Reds in any category, but they're still a really good team.
The Brewers might just sneak up on you. Their offense prospects to be excellent, just as it was in 2012. Their problem in 2012 was too many runs allowed. But if you look at the pitching staff, things just might be looking up. Yes, there's no Greinke this time, but full seasons of Fiers, Estrada, Gallardo, plus potentially strong seasons from prospects turned major leagues Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta, they might quietly have assembled one of the better rotations in the majors leagues. But can their bullpen hold up? They added Tom Gorzelanny and could add more to an improving pen. I'm not picking the Brewers for anything just yet, but if they came out of nowhere to take a wild card or even this division, I can't say I'd be shocked about it.
Nobody knows what to make of the Pirates, least of all me. Trading Hanrahan isn't much of a loss, but they didn't get back much that will help them this year. They'll suffer from a mediocre offense; while the top five is pretty good, the bottom third is very weak. Their rotation projects to be mediocre; Burnett is probably not as good as he was in 2012, free agent Francisco Liriao can't seem to keep his ERA down, and the remaining incumbents top out at Wandy Rodriguez, who's realistically a 3 at best. Their pen will struggle behind Jason Grilli. I just don't see much happening for the Pirates in 2013, unfortunately. I wish I could see a winning season here, but I just can't.
The Cubs will continue to rebuild. They're a little better than they were in 2012 and might not lose 100 games, but they'll still be kind of pretty awful.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
I just don't see a way around it. I know the Giants have won the World Series twice in the last three years, and might have won it in 2011 if Posey had been healthy. But the Dodgers are finally just too good. Their offense is stacked in the middle and a little weak on the ends. Dee Gordon needs to get his OBP a lot higher if they expect him to be a real leadoff man and justify his spot in the lineup; otherwise, they'll need to play Ramirez at short and find a third baseman somewhere. The sheer dominance of Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Ethier in the middle may be overwhelming, though. Then, their new rotation, which features one of the best in the world in Clayton Kershaw, new second ace Zack Greinke, and Josh Beckett, who pitched well for the Dodgers last year. Ryu may struggle to adjust to his new league, whomever inevitably winds up at the back will be forgettable, but they're frontloaded and ready to kill. Their bullpen will probably be solid again with Jansen and League either closing or setting up each other. This is a phenomenal team and I can't pick against them here.
The Giants have a strong lineup, but it has its issues. Of concern will be whether or not Pagan and Scutaro are quite as good as they were in 2012. Sandoval and Posey will be great again, and Pence should rebound to form a good 3-4-5. Their bottom three is poor, but Belt, Crawford, and Torres all at least bring strong defense to their positions. The rotation looks great as usual, with Cain and Bumgarner looking strong. Lincecum is bound to rebound somewhat, though he may never again be called an ace unless he addresses serious problems with his velocity and changeup movement. Vogelsong will be nice at the back of the rotation. Zito, despite his wonderful playoff performance, is unlikely to be anything more than poor as usual. Their bullpen returns in force and should be quite good again, without missing Wilson any more than it did it in 2012. I still like the Giants very much and think they'll return to the playoffs, but they'll have a hell of a time trying to take the division from the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks might sneak up on people again. We all know they won the division in 2011 and took a predictable step backwards in 2012. They've got a good 2-3-4 of Hill, Upton, and Goldschmidt, and a solid lead off hitter in Eaton. But they're offensively weak at other positions; Cody Ross will bring good defensive value only if he's in right, which he probably won't be, considering it's Upton's position. Chris Johnson is solid enough at third, and Cliff Pennington could be an above average defensive shorstop, but his bat is poor. The addition of Brandon McCarthy and the rookie campaign of Tyler Skaggs adds to a pretty strong rotation of Kennedy, Cahill, and Miley. They've got a pretty good bullpen, and can add more pieces by dealing Kubel or Parra. An Upton trade might work, but only if they can swing a great shorstop or third baseman, and it seems increasingly unlikely they'll do so. The Diamondbacks are good, but may be mired in mediocrity for now and for the foreseeable future, with the top dogs of their division a few steps ahead of them. With two great teams ahead of them, a wild card spot seems unlikely, but the Diamondbacks stand to be competitive.
I don't rightly know what to make of the Rockies, honestly. If everyone's healthy, they'll obviously turn in one of the best offenses in the league, but as usual, their rotation projects to be absolutely abysmal. They'll have a very solid set up man and closer who can help them win the close ones, but the pitching staff beyond that just looks terrible. I can only project bad things for them in 2013.
The Padres lose Yasmani Grandal to a suspension, which will hurt their chances at competitiveness in 2013. The offense is overall pretty bad, thanks to Petco, but they also suffer from a very disappointing starting rotation that will probably do poorly even in Petco. Their bullpen boasts a good closer and a couple decent pieces, but overall, the Padres are still not very good and don't hold much of a chance at competing in this division.
NL Wild Cards
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
Simple picks from the above. Great teams, two of the best in the NL, just held back by excellent teams in their division.
Playoff Projection
Wild Card Round
I'll take the Rays over the Yankees; we expect the wild card game to pit more like third starter versus third starter rather than ace versus ace, and I don't think anyone will get much of a chance to clinch a spot and take a breather in the ultra tight AL East in order to set their rotation. With a deeper rotation than the Yankees have, the Rays project to put out a better starter in this one than the Yanks can. Homefield advantage will mean a lot here as well, depending on where each finishes; I think the Rays will edge out the Yanks and have that advantage as well. Wil Myers will probably have hit his stride by this part of the season and will be a bigger offensive threat in the playoffs than he will be early in the season, and finally, the Yankees are historic playoff chokers, at least recently. I see them cracking in this one and losing out to the Rays.
Meanwhile, I'll take the Giants over the Braves. They're both excellent teams, but we saw what this Giants staff can do in the postseason last year. With everything on the line, whoever it is will come through in this one and outduel his opponent, sending the Giants onward.
Divisional Series
I think the Angels will have the best record in the AL and face the wild card Rays. This is a classic clash of pitching versus hitting, though the Angels of course have a good rotation and the Rays have a good offense, and while my gut says pitching wins, the Angels offense is REALLY good. This one I think will take five games but I will take the Angels in the end, probably led by two masterful Weaver starts.
Meanwhile, I think the Tigers will play the Jays, and I just can't pass on the Jays here. They're too good to lose to the Tigers, unless the Tigers are way better than we thought. Verlander has shown his vulnerability in the playoffs before, and he will dictate the playoff success of the Tigers. If he can't shut down the Jays in game one, and I don't think he will, the whole series will probably unravel from there. It probably will go at least four, but I like the Jays.
I'll pick the Reds for the best record in the NL and have them face the Giants, where I will this time take the Reds. We saw how this one turned out in 2012, and the Reds had the Giants on the ropes before a miraculous comeback saved the Giants. I just don't see it happening again, especially not if the whole Reds rotation is healthy.
On the other end, the Dodgers will face the Nationals and I'll take...the Nationals. It's an agonizing decision and yes, Strasburg is untested in the playoffs, but I believe in his ability to be dominant in the playoffs and get the better of a dominant Dodgers lineup. While the one two punch of Kershaw and Greinke might be too much to overcome in a five game series, I think the Nationals will manage and take this series in a nailbiter.
Championship Series
The Angels will face the Jays, and I take the Angels. The Jays are good, but the Angels will feast upon the back end of their rotation unless it's better than anyone expects. Weaver is a workhorse who can make two starts, or even three, and their offense is so overwhelming that it can best the Jays. The Angels are good. Very good.
When the Nationals face the Reds, I'll take the Nationals. Their pitching staff outdoes the Reds, and I just like them better for this series. I only choose hitting over pitching in a series when the hitting is unbelievably good, as it is for the Angels. That isn't the case for the Reds, and I think the Nationals will beat them.
World Series
It's agonizing, but this time, I think the pitching is just too good. The Nationals can be the team that shuts down the mega offense of the Angels. This series will hinge on crucial at bats, and anything could change at the drop of a pin - it could go either way. But I will choose the Nationals as the World Series Champion in 2013.
There you have it, my predictions for 2013 - at least, before New Year's. We'll see how a few key free agents might change things, or a blockbuster trade or two, but this is what I like right now.
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
It's hard to pick against them. They remade their rotation by adding three "aces" - not guys who I would conventionally call aces, but can have pitched like them. Dickey is hard to predict and old, but for three years he's been a strong pitcher and last year was a Cy Young winner. It's also well documented that he pitches very well inside domed stadiums, which will aid him greatly when he makes half his starts in Toronto, plus one of his division rivals, the Rays, also play inside a dome. They added Mark Buehrle, who's thrown over 200 innings for over 10 years straight. He's extremely consistent, and it's hard not to imagine him replicating his career numbers in Toronto. Quietly, Josh Johnson turned in a great rebound campaign in 2012, and his peripherals suggest he could do even better in 2013. He may turn out to the best acquisition of all of them. If the Jays can also add a full season of Brandon Morrow and some sort of rebound from Ricky Romero, their rotation will be very, very dangerous. Bullpens are hard to predict, but theirs was solid in 2012 and the main pieces will all return, along with the addition of Sergio Santos back from injury. I wouldn't put it past the Jays to add a reliever like Rafael Soriano either.
Their lineup remains dangerous; Reyes now leads off, Bautista should be healthy, Lawrie should rebound at the plate while turning in Gold Glove defense at third, and while Encarnacion might take a step back from his excellent 2012, he should still be dangerous.
Compared to the competition, the Jays just stack up better. The Yankees have a lot of question marks coming out of the 2012 playoffs. Will Granderson return to form? Will Jeter be there for Opening Day, or spring training? If he misses training, how good will he be? Can the back of their rotation get it done - will Nova and Hughes ever live up to their potential? Will Mariano Rivera be the same? With so much money tied up in a lot of players, the Yankees can't address their needs anymore. Signing Kevin Youkilis will help, but he is an aging veteran. And when Rodriguez returns, will he be a positive contributor for the Yankees? He's been steadily declining for years now, and returning from injury is bound to make that worse. The Yankees have enough firepower to be good in 2013, but I just don't know if they can match the Blue Jays pound for pound.
The Rays are still very good; they got screwed over in 2012 a bit by some bad luck, with the Orioles absurd overperformance (their Pythagorean W/L was 82-80). They were the second best team in their division in 2012 and should have gone to the playoffs; had they had a full season of Evan Longoria, the odds are they would have won the division. Most would say the Blue Jays job is to dethrone the Yankees, but really, it's to fight off the scrappy Rays. They traded James Shields to add more long term insurance, with the great bat of Wil Myers on its way. Will they make up his production? Maybe not entirely through pitching alone, but they will get a good bit of it back by giving those innings to some very talented young pitchers. The rest of it will probably return in value from Myers himself, who should probably come up a la Mike Trout in 2012; starting in AAA, then coming up in May. Myers will probably not hit for average right away, but should provide raw power. He won't be a dominant contributor in 2013, most likely, but he should figure it out and could surprise us all. I think losing Shields and Davis is acceptable for the Rays in terms of immediate production, and they'll certainly get more out of it in the long run. The Rays may have trouble hanging onto David Price as his arbitration salaries get more and more expensive, but they should be able to keep him for the 2013 season at least.
The Red Sox have done a lot this offseason, but I don't think it amounts to much. They'll be competitive, but they haven't added nearly enough to let them recover from their blockbuster with the Dodgers. I can see them fighting to .500, but they won't win this one. They're a few years away and they need to let their top prospects develop before they can really compete again in the AL East. If their pitching staff rebounds strongly, they could surprise people, but I just don't see it happening.
The Orioles, I'm afraid, were a fluke. They overperformed by a country mile, and it's completely unsustainable. Making it worse is the fact that their division got better while they did nothing. The Orioles will most likely finish in last place in 2013. It's a shame, and I'm glad they had the run they did - I wish they could have won the division to have something to show for it. But, they didn't, and so here we are. It will not be a good year for the Orioles.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers
You can't really pick anyone else, can you? The Tigers are good. Very good. They have maybe the best 1-5 hitters in the league in 2013 - Jackson, Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder, and Martinez. That will keep pitchers up at night. Their rotation looks better with Sanchez in it permanently, behind Verlander and maybe ahead of Fister. The back of it has its concerns, as they continue to discuss trading Porcello, which would leave us questions about Smyly - but, Smyly could be just as good as Porcello. In the end, this might be the best rotation in the AL. With an improved offense, they seem to be once again definite favorites for the AL Central crown in 2013.
The Chicago White Sox should have won the division in 2012, based on run differentials and Pythagorean W/L. Does that mean they're serious contenders in 2013? Well, the Tigers got a lot better, and the White Sox haven't. They've lost their production at catcher with the loss of Pierzynski and have a lot of question at third once again. Alex Rios was their best position player in 2012, but he's an anomaly - is he really that good? I think not. They can probably count on Alexei Ramirez to bounce back a little, but they have to be concerned by the creeping decline of Paul Konerko as he nears the end of the line. Their rotation is unpredictable - it's hard to say if Sale will be as good as he was in 2012 as it was his first season as a starter. With Peavy coming back from injury, it's equally hard to say if he's also still that good. Things drop off after that and leave a lot of question marks, and their cobbled together 2012 bullpen may not be as good again. The White Sox are hard to predict, but I don't see them making it in the end.
The Royals got a lot better in the short term, adding James Shields, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie to a brand new rotation that will look almost nothing like what it did on 2012's Opening Day. It's a good one, though not without questions. How good is Davis as a starter? Can Santana rebound? If those outcomes are positive, the Royals will have a competitive rotation. If not, they'll be in trouble behind ace James Shields, arguably the only sure thing in the rotation. Their lineup has huge potential if Hosmer and Moustakas can turn in big campaigns. They'll be aided by getting Salvador Perez for the whole year. Their bullpen could be very good as they have some dominant middle relievers but no "proven" closer; they will probably turn to Greg Holland, but it's hard to say how good he'll be. With good management, they'll be able to get by. The Royals need to take a big step forward in 2013 to go places, and they have the chance to do so; if they all live up to their potential, they could upset the Tigers.
The Indians are ambiguous. They were very, very, very, VERY bad in 2012. How bad? Their run differential was worse than every team but one - the Astros. Our 68-94 was an overperformance, unbelievably - they should have been closer to 64-98. This is nearly a 100 loss team that is trying to contend in 2013. Can it be done? Probably not, but we've seen crazier things. The Athletic should have been awful in 2012, but weren't - and not because of total flukes like the Orioles, but because their talent was all better than expected. It's not impossible that the Indians could do the same, but in a suddenly competitive division, it won't be easy. Their rotation has a great many questions - Masterson is at least consistent, and we should be able to expect the performance of a decent #3 starter out of it. Unfortunately, he's being asked to be the #1 - not a good thing. I'm desperately hoping they can scrounge up some more money and get Kyle Lohse, but as it stands, they haven't got him. Jimenez is a walking corpse at this point - it's obvious he'll never be good without his velocity back, and there's no sign of it so far. McAllister is a decent pitcher who would fit nicely as a 5 or maybe a 4 in many rotations...but not a 3, as he is for this one. The question marks are Carlos Carrasco, a guy with loads of talent who was looking good in 2011 before going down for Tommy John's, and Trevor Bauer, the quirky yet elite prospect. Can they both become the dominant pitchers they promise to be in 2013? If so, this could be a very different conversation. Mediocre infield defense is also problematic - only Kipnis could be expected to be a positive defensive influence on the infield in 2013, while Cabrera, Chisenhall, and Reynolds are all below average at their positions. Fortunately, the Indians do have a great defensive outfield of Brantley, Stubbs, and Swisher, so maybe if the pitching staff can try to induce safe fly balls (think Matt Cain) there could be success in the defense of this team. On the bright side, the offense looks solid. The new additions include Stubbs, who will steal at least 30 bases in 2013 more than likely, Reynolds, who can hit for major power (though he might struggle in Progressive Field), and all around great hitter Nick Swisher. Meanwhile we still have Cabrera, Kipnis, and Brantley, who were all positive offensive forces in 2012, and Santana is poised to break out after a small sophomore slump. Lonnie Chisenhall could hit very well in 2013 as well, and it is do or die time for the prospect. The Indians best hope is that they magically come together like the Athletics did - not a powerful hope, but it is hope, nonetheless.
The Twins are hard to figure out right now. They traded away Span and Revere for somewhat mediocre returns. Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Vance Worley are all good, but Span and Revere were two of the Twins better players. Their outfield is now a mess; while Josh Willingham will return, they'll be forced to turn to Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee. Mastroianni is fast, and could be a good leadoff hitter if his OBP is high, but Parmelee doesn't project as much in 2013. The Twins bullpen is also perplexing and doesn't feature much. It's hard to expect much more out of the Twins than another low finish below .500.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
How can you pick against them? Sure, it was justifiable in 2012, with the Rangers still looking great and questions about how the new team would gel, but the new Angels offense has had a year of experience together and their biggest acquisition was the addition of elite prospect Mike Trout, who was the best player in the bigs in 2012 and could be again in 2013. Add Josh Hamilton to this lineup and it's just unbelievably good. If they ever get over their fascination with hitting Aybar second and put him ninth where he belongs, the Angels could have a better 1-5 than the Tigers. What kept the Angels out of the playoffs last year was an unpredictable rotation implosion. A totally new rotation will hopefully remain consistent. Weaver will still be an ace, while Wilson should turn in a nice season. Hanson, Blanton, and Vargas should be consistent arms at the back of the rotation and can hopefully keep the run scored down and allow the offense to win them games. Their bullpen will also help this endeavor; the addition of Burnett and Madson will strengthen it. This is a top to bottom great team and I just can't pick against them in 2013.
The Rangers meanwhile continue to decline. For the second straight year a top contributor has signed with their rivals. It was Wilson first, and now it's Hamilton. They also lose Mike Napoli, who together account for over 50 home runs. They first reality that needs to be faced is they probably aren't getting 50 home runs back. While Pierzynski and Soto together might actually make up Napoli's total, you just don't replace Josh Hamilton easily. As it stands, the Rangers have good corner outfielders, but questions at center. Craig Gentry is pretty good, and Leonys Martin is a nice prospect, but the Rangers, I think, have got to commit to winning now. They need to either sign Michael Bourn or pony up and move Profar. Profar for Upton would have been a fair deal, though it doesn't seem like the Diamonbacks are inclined to make it now. They should try to convince the Marlins to part with Stanton for Profar, perhaps by also absorbing Nolasco's salary. Somehow, they need to add a strong outfielder. If they hang onto Profar, it would he wise to move Kinsler to first and let Profar play second, as it's high time he started to get Major League at bats. The Rangers rotation looks solid, led by Darvish; if it stays healthy, it'll be competitive. The bullpen also looks very strong right now, especially if Feliz returns to it (and he probably should). If the Rangers add that impact outfielder, they will have a strong chance at winning the AL West, and I would think would be heavy favorites for a wild card spot at least. If not, I can really see them not making the playoffs at all.
The Athletics remain a perplexing team. They earned their division title in 2012; their Pythagorean W/L was the best in the west. But they've remained quiet this winter, while they've lost players. Brandon McCarthy is gone, and there's a big question mark on Brett Anderson's health. Are Parker, Milone, and Griffin really as good as they were in 2012? It's too hard to say just yet, but the inclination I have is no. Nakajima was signed to play short, but his defense is questionable and we've seen a lot of Japanese shortstops fail offensively in the big leagues. Balfour will still be a strong closer, but the Athletics are a team that I'm still not investing a lot of hope in for 2013. Above .500 seems like a safe bet, but playoffs don't.
The Mariners were not that great in 2012, but made some improvements. Kendyrs Morales in the heart of their lineup should be very good for them, but they still need to address some other questions. Who's catching, playing first, and DHing? Can Jesus Montero bounce back from a pretty bad 2012? If he can't, they're in a bad place, as they really needed him for the offense. Raul Ibanez can hopefully add a little pop as well, but he's is really best as part of a platoon. If they add another strong bat like Michael Bourn, they could be in business as they also have some prospects coming along that could make an impact in 2013.
The Astros are still awful. Headed for another 100 loss season. Sorry.
Wild Cards
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
As things stand now, this is who I would take. If the Rangers make the necessary move, though, I would favor them slightly over the Yankees.
National League
NL East
Washington Nationals
I just can't pick against them. I tried to convince myself the Braves would win, and even I don't believe it. They're a young team that had a huge season in 2012; experience and history say that they'll probably take a step back in 2013, not one forward. But it is worth saying that they will have Strasburg for a full season, and that could mean a whole lot for the Nationals. But there are new questions for them in their rotation, namely, is Dan Haren as good as he was prior to his injury? I'll admit, beyond that, they're just fine - they can either re-sign LaRoche and trade Morse, or let Morse play first. Either way, they ought to be fine on that front. Still, something about me doesn't feel this team will quite reach 98 wins again. In the end, they're mostly the same team from last year with a year's experience together. They can win 90+ again in 2013 and take this division.
The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, are also more or less the same team, minus one major player - Chipper Jones. Replacing him right now is Juan Francisco, but the Braves would like to add an outfielder to put Martin Prado at third. Even if they don't, though, the Braves have one of the better offenses in the majors. There are precious few outfielders of merit left on the market, save Michael Bourn from whom they have apparently moved on. They could, perhaps, assemble a cheap platoon out of available options, but they're probably likely to just stick with Francisco. The Braves also boast an impressive rotation and an improved bullpen thanks to the acquisition of Jordan Walden, supplementing a pen that has one of the best relievers in the game in it in Craig Kimbrel. The Braves are good, and they'll fight tooth and nail with the Nationals for this division. Ultimately I picked against them, just based on the last few years of history.
The Phillies are a team that will live or die on the health and productivity of a handful of veterans. If Halladay, Howard, and Utley can show up for the majority of the season and contribute well when they do so, this is a team that can seriously make waves and could take this division back. If not, well, they'll struggle. I think that Halladay will rebound from injury and be about as good as you'd expect, and Lee and Hamels ought to be among the best starters again. The addition of Michael Young and Ben Revere will help the Phillies offense and can help them ride out any injury or time off given to Utley and Howard. The unfortunate suspension to Carlos Ruiz will hurt, and it would seem highly suspect that his statistical surge in 2012 will return once he's clean. The Phillies will probably wind up a .500 team again without long, healthy seasons from Howard and Utley, but if they can turn them in, this division can change really quick.
The Mets will be rebuilding and while they might see some exciting play out of their young prospects, it's unlikely they'll go far in 2013. Their major storyline will probably be Travis D'arnaud and how his Mets debut goes.
Finally, the Marlins suck. Please trade Stanton so the rest of us can enjoy him without watching your terrible baseball team.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
This is going to be a tight division. The Reds are sort of like the Giants; they had a great 2010, a 2011 derailed by injury, and then a major rebound in 2012 that proved they were for real. They added Shin-Soo Choo to lead off, but his offensive contributions may be offset by their apparent intent to play him in center, where his defense is likely going to be poor. Nevertheless, they only gave up Stubbs from their major league roster to acquire him, and the worst case scenario is his isolated output is a wash. Less isolated will be the fact that he'll get on base in front of guys like Votto and Ludwick, which will likely increase their RBI totals. The offense is great. Their rotation is solid, but topheavy. Arroya, Bailey, and Leake are all good but not great. If they add Chapman to the rotation, they'll improve their and probably reap more value than with him as a closer. They can certainly take the hit to their pen with Marshall and Broxton ready to close and set up, respectively. The Reds are just a great team, pure and simple, and they're ready to win this division again.
The Cardinals are their major competition, and they're also pretty damn good. Their offense is a step behind the Reds', in my opinion - while the Reds are great top to bottom, the Cardinals will struggle with speed issues and haven't got a good leadoff man. Their rotation is strong and will easily take the loss of Kyle Lohse with the addition of prospects who are ready to go. Their bullpen will remain intact more than likely, and it should be pretty good. I just don't think they catch up to the Reds in any category, but they're still a really good team.
The Brewers might just sneak up on you. Their offense prospects to be excellent, just as it was in 2012. Their problem in 2012 was too many runs allowed. But if you look at the pitching staff, things just might be looking up. Yes, there's no Greinke this time, but full seasons of Fiers, Estrada, Gallardo, plus potentially strong seasons from prospects turned major leagues Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta, they might quietly have assembled one of the better rotations in the majors leagues. But can their bullpen hold up? They added Tom Gorzelanny and could add more to an improving pen. I'm not picking the Brewers for anything just yet, but if they came out of nowhere to take a wild card or even this division, I can't say I'd be shocked about it.
Nobody knows what to make of the Pirates, least of all me. Trading Hanrahan isn't much of a loss, but they didn't get back much that will help them this year. They'll suffer from a mediocre offense; while the top five is pretty good, the bottom third is very weak. Their rotation projects to be mediocre; Burnett is probably not as good as he was in 2012, free agent Francisco Liriao can't seem to keep his ERA down, and the remaining incumbents top out at Wandy Rodriguez, who's realistically a 3 at best. Their pen will struggle behind Jason Grilli. I just don't see much happening for the Pirates in 2013, unfortunately. I wish I could see a winning season here, but I just can't.
The Cubs will continue to rebuild. They're a little better than they were in 2012 and might not lose 100 games, but they'll still be kind of pretty awful.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
I just don't see a way around it. I know the Giants have won the World Series twice in the last three years, and might have won it in 2011 if Posey had been healthy. But the Dodgers are finally just too good. Their offense is stacked in the middle and a little weak on the ends. Dee Gordon needs to get his OBP a lot higher if they expect him to be a real leadoff man and justify his spot in the lineup; otherwise, they'll need to play Ramirez at short and find a third baseman somewhere. The sheer dominance of Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Ethier in the middle may be overwhelming, though. Then, their new rotation, which features one of the best in the world in Clayton Kershaw, new second ace Zack Greinke, and Josh Beckett, who pitched well for the Dodgers last year. Ryu may struggle to adjust to his new league, whomever inevitably winds up at the back will be forgettable, but they're frontloaded and ready to kill. Their bullpen will probably be solid again with Jansen and League either closing or setting up each other. This is a phenomenal team and I can't pick against them here.
The Giants have a strong lineup, but it has its issues. Of concern will be whether or not Pagan and Scutaro are quite as good as they were in 2012. Sandoval and Posey will be great again, and Pence should rebound to form a good 3-4-5. Their bottom three is poor, but Belt, Crawford, and Torres all at least bring strong defense to their positions. The rotation looks great as usual, with Cain and Bumgarner looking strong. Lincecum is bound to rebound somewhat, though he may never again be called an ace unless he addresses serious problems with his velocity and changeup movement. Vogelsong will be nice at the back of the rotation. Zito, despite his wonderful playoff performance, is unlikely to be anything more than poor as usual. Their bullpen returns in force and should be quite good again, without missing Wilson any more than it did it in 2012. I still like the Giants very much and think they'll return to the playoffs, but they'll have a hell of a time trying to take the division from the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks might sneak up on people again. We all know they won the division in 2011 and took a predictable step backwards in 2012. They've got a good 2-3-4 of Hill, Upton, and Goldschmidt, and a solid lead off hitter in Eaton. But they're offensively weak at other positions; Cody Ross will bring good defensive value only if he's in right, which he probably won't be, considering it's Upton's position. Chris Johnson is solid enough at third, and Cliff Pennington could be an above average defensive shorstop, but his bat is poor. The addition of Brandon McCarthy and the rookie campaign of Tyler Skaggs adds to a pretty strong rotation of Kennedy, Cahill, and Miley. They've got a pretty good bullpen, and can add more pieces by dealing Kubel or Parra. An Upton trade might work, but only if they can swing a great shorstop or third baseman, and it seems increasingly unlikely they'll do so. The Diamondbacks are good, but may be mired in mediocrity for now and for the foreseeable future, with the top dogs of their division a few steps ahead of them. With two great teams ahead of them, a wild card spot seems unlikely, but the Diamondbacks stand to be competitive.
I don't rightly know what to make of the Rockies, honestly. If everyone's healthy, they'll obviously turn in one of the best offenses in the league, but as usual, their rotation projects to be absolutely abysmal. They'll have a very solid set up man and closer who can help them win the close ones, but the pitching staff beyond that just looks terrible. I can only project bad things for them in 2013.
The Padres lose Yasmani Grandal to a suspension, which will hurt their chances at competitiveness in 2013. The offense is overall pretty bad, thanks to Petco, but they also suffer from a very disappointing starting rotation that will probably do poorly even in Petco. Their bullpen boasts a good closer and a couple decent pieces, but overall, the Padres are still not very good and don't hold much of a chance at competing in this division.
NL Wild Cards
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
Simple picks from the above. Great teams, two of the best in the NL, just held back by excellent teams in their division.
Playoff Projection
Wild Card Round
I'll take the Rays over the Yankees; we expect the wild card game to pit more like third starter versus third starter rather than ace versus ace, and I don't think anyone will get much of a chance to clinch a spot and take a breather in the ultra tight AL East in order to set their rotation. With a deeper rotation than the Yankees have, the Rays project to put out a better starter in this one than the Yanks can. Homefield advantage will mean a lot here as well, depending on where each finishes; I think the Rays will edge out the Yanks and have that advantage as well. Wil Myers will probably have hit his stride by this part of the season and will be a bigger offensive threat in the playoffs than he will be early in the season, and finally, the Yankees are historic playoff chokers, at least recently. I see them cracking in this one and losing out to the Rays.
Meanwhile, I'll take the Giants over the Braves. They're both excellent teams, but we saw what this Giants staff can do in the postseason last year. With everything on the line, whoever it is will come through in this one and outduel his opponent, sending the Giants onward.
Divisional Series
I think the Angels will have the best record in the AL and face the wild card Rays. This is a classic clash of pitching versus hitting, though the Angels of course have a good rotation and the Rays have a good offense, and while my gut says pitching wins, the Angels offense is REALLY good. This one I think will take five games but I will take the Angels in the end, probably led by two masterful Weaver starts.
Meanwhile, I think the Tigers will play the Jays, and I just can't pass on the Jays here. They're too good to lose to the Tigers, unless the Tigers are way better than we thought. Verlander has shown his vulnerability in the playoffs before, and he will dictate the playoff success of the Tigers. If he can't shut down the Jays in game one, and I don't think he will, the whole series will probably unravel from there. It probably will go at least four, but I like the Jays.
I'll pick the Reds for the best record in the NL and have them face the Giants, where I will this time take the Reds. We saw how this one turned out in 2012, and the Reds had the Giants on the ropes before a miraculous comeback saved the Giants. I just don't see it happening again, especially not if the whole Reds rotation is healthy.
On the other end, the Dodgers will face the Nationals and I'll take...the Nationals. It's an agonizing decision and yes, Strasburg is untested in the playoffs, but I believe in his ability to be dominant in the playoffs and get the better of a dominant Dodgers lineup. While the one two punch of Kershaw and Greinke might be too much to overcome in a five game series, I think the Nationals will manage and take this series in a nailbiter.
Championship Series
The Angels will face the Jays, and I take the Angels. The Jays are good, but the Angels will feast upon the back end of their rotation unless it's better than anyone expects. Weaver is a workhorse who can make two starts, or even three, and their offense is so overwhelming that it can best the Jays. The Angels are good. Very good.
When the Nationals face the Reds, I'll take the Nationals. Their pitching staff outdoes the Reds, and I just like them better for this series. I only choose hitting over pitching in a series when the hitting is unbelievably good, as it is for the Angels. That isn't the case for the Reds, and I think the Nationals will beat them.
World Series
It's agonizing, but this time, I think the pitching is just too good. The Nationals can be the team that shuts down the mega offense of the Angels. This series will hinge on crucial at bats, and anything could change at the drop of a pin - it could go either way. But I will choose the Nationals as the World Series Champion in 2013.
There you have it, my predictions for 2013 - at least, before New Year's. We'll see how a few key free agents might change things, or a blockbuster trade or two, but this is what I like right now.
