2012 MLB Predictions

[Harthan]

Well, it's that time of year again. Pitchers and catchers are reporting in to spring training and position players will be hot on their heels. The offseason is probably almost over, and any moves made at this point are likely not to be game changers. I doubt Roy Oswalt will make or break anyone's chance at winning the World Series, for example. Before spring training really gets off in earnest, I thought perhaps those of us interested might get predictions in for how they see the 2012 MLB season shaking out - who wins each division, and maybe even forecasting who wins wild cards, who advances in the playoffs, and who brings home the big one. Have at it, friends.

Divisions

AL East - A stacked division with three legitimate contenders, depending on who you ask. I imagine the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox will be in this one to the bitter end. The Yankees seem like odds on favorites - they have a stacked offense and, if Pineda pans out, could have the best rotation in the division (although Tamba Bay would still have a thing or two to say about that). I don't like the Red Sox a ton, myself - I think they'll still struggle with whatever the heck got into them in September, and besides that, their rotation has serious holes that need to be plugged. The mood seems to positive for the Sox right now, but I'm not sure I buy it. The Rays are somewhere in the middle, that is, the Yankees ended strong and had a strong offseason, the Red Sox ended poor and had a poor offseason, and the Rays ended fair and had a fair offseason. They improved their offense, but look mostly to rely on an already strong rotation. Unfortunately, I think Jeremy Hellickson is going to have a huge downswing this year - I know everyone's high on the kid, and his 2011 basic stats look good, but his real stats are abysmal and they're going to catch up to him. In short, he got lucky last year. I guess what I'm saying is that the Sox and Rays have their issues while the Yankees are a well oiled machine, and I see them headed to the division title here. New York Yankees

AL Central - Alright, now listen up. I know you want me to pick the Tigers. Everyone says pick the Tigers. Well...okay, I will, but not without severe qualification first. The Tigers aren't half as hot as you think they are. Everyone wants to gloss over Victor Martinez in the wake of the Prince Fielder signing, but my bet is that between adjusting to AL pitching and hi customary slump after a great year, Prince Fielder will essentially be a tit for tat replacement for Victor Martinez. All well and good, you say, since the Tigers dominated the division last year. Not so fast. It's almost certain Verlander will regress toward his average, as is customary with Cy Young winners. I suspect that will cost them 2-3 wins (keep in mind they won 95 in 2011). Miguel Cabrera is a bit of a wild card but he may be in for some regression due to the positional change (every time he plays at third it's going to cost his team, and even if he plays at DH it'll be an adjustment). Still, I won't count that heavily. Valverde probably overperformed, and a variety of other factors lead me to expect the Tigers to regress to something like a 90 win or just under team. Now, the flip side, the Cleveland Indians, who were an 80 win team in 2011, but have tremendous potential. Ubaldo Jimenez is almost certainly going to bounce back, probably not to 2010 levels, but a guy that could probably add 4 wins to this team. A healthy season from Shin Soo Choo, who showed no signs of the injuries affect his performane when healthy, makes up even more of that gap. Sizemore is less likely to great even if healthy, as the injuries have been shown to take a toll on his performance when "healthy", but I'm hopeful he'll do better than he did in 2011. What I'm adding these numbers up to is a Central division in which both the Indians and the Tigers are pursuing 90 wins, don't make it, and fight tooth and nail to the end. I'll pick the Tigers overall, because I'm probably just being delusional with regard to Cleveland. Detroit Tigers

AL West - It's very difficult to choose between the established force in the Texas Rangers and the new kids on the block in the Los Angeles Angels. The Rangers' offense remains essentially unchanged from 2011, which is a good thing, since they were among the best. The pitching, however, will look quite different. The addition of Joe Nathan as closer moves Neftali Feliz to the rotation, as the Rangers look to strike lightning again with converting a reliever to a starter (an endeavor I think they'll be successful in, by the by). More interesting, of course, is the major unknown Yu Darvish who can make or break this rotation. I think Yu will not be an ace right away, but will have a respectable season. He won't replicate CJ Wilson, however, and that will cost the Rangers a little bit. Unfortunately for them, they haven't got much ground to give. The Angels took Wilson and reap his benefits, which will be somewhere between his 2010 and 2011 seasons...in other words, very good. He's a legitimate four win guy. And then, of course, enter Pujols. I'm not sure just how good he'll be - he wasn't quite up to his usual stuff in 2011, and he has to adjust to the AL. He could add, on the conservative end, 3 to 6 on the generous end wins to this team. That, if you're keeping track at home, means that the Angels are dancing right in there with the Rangers for this division. It all comes down to how good Yu Darvish is, how well does Albert Pujols perform, does anyone on either team drop off or exceed in quality...so many little things will decide this division, it's almost impossible to predict. I will choose Texas, because the current CAIRO projections like them (by one game, so, kind of meaningless, but still) and because I think the fact that they're an established two time AL Championship team compared to the Angels being a new unit that'll need to figure itself out will swing things ever so slightly in their favor. Texas Rangers

AL Wild Card(s) - Three teams come to mind, of course - the Los Angeles Angels, the Boston Red Sox, and the Tampa Bay Rays. I have too difficult of a time picking against the Angels to win the wild card. The Red Sox and the Rays play in a tougher division, which will hurt their win total, while the Angels will rack up wins against Mariners and Athletics. If there's a second wild card this year, I like the Rays. I'll be honest with you, I don't really have a lot of faith in the Boston Red Sox in 2012, if you haven't guessed yet. They have no shortstop and a rotation that's more holey than a piece of Swiss cheese. I just don't buy into them in 2012. I think it will be as close a margin as it was this year, but I think the Rays will finish ahead of them in the AL East and if there's a second wild card, it belongs to Tampa Bay. (Wild Card 1: Los Angeles Angels ; Wild Card 2: Tampa Bay Rays)

NL East - I see this division being very, very scrappy. The Phillies are the obvious top dogs, as they've run this division now for five years running and look to do it again. Sure, they overpayed for Papelbon, but I'd be willing to bet he's a better closer in 2012 than Madson is, which is only going to make this team better. The rotation will probably not quite as lights out as it was in 2011, but the offense is still mostly intact and added depth in the offseason. I think they'll regress from 2011 in wins, but mostly because their division got so much better. The Marlins bought like they've never bought before and made impact trades. Reyes, Buehrle, Bell, and Zambrano should improve the team a ton, not to mention returning, hopefully healthy Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. This suddenly turns the Marlins rotation into something to be feared, and the offense of Reyes and Ramirez will be feared around the league. And yet, we remember two things: one, the rest of the division is still stacked, and two, the Marlins were in dead last last year. They have a ton of ground to make up, and even a fantastic offseason like this, in a division this strong, can't guarantee them much beyond scrapping. The other team that, more subtly had a brilliant offseason, was the Washington Nationals, who added to their brilliant starters Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, giving them a rotation that, if I may be so bold to say it, rivals the Phillies. Unfortunately for the Nationals, the lukewarm offense of 2011 returns pretty much unchanged from last year, and they couldn't get done the Prince Fielder deal that might have locked down the division for them. The Braves will still be good, but honestly, I don't think they'll be that good, considering they are pretty much the same team as last year and the division just got a ton better. Oh, and, um, Mets fans...sorry about that. I give this division to Philadelphia, but not before the Nationals and the Marlins have had their say. Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central - A very exciting division here. 2011 champs Milwaukee lost Fielder and Braun, the latter for only 50 games fortunately, but that'll sting bad. They also lost depth in the bullpen and adding Ramirez and Gonzalez continues their problem of being too right handed. I see them regressing quite a way, probably to third place, and that only because the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates all suck. The Cardinals also took losses, but fortunately for them, their talent was distributed a little better, but losing arguably the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols is no good for anyone. Still, Carlos Beltran and an ideally healthy Rafael Furcal should keep their offense alive, and even more so if David Freese continues to improve. Adam Wainwright returning also helps, but I don't think he'll be the pitcher he once was, though he'll still be good. The losses of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan will also take a huge toll. Add it all together and you have a Cardinals team that simply isn't as good as it was in 2011. The unfortunate news for them is that the Reds had a brilliant offseason, adding Mat Latos, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Madson to severely improve their rotation and bullpen, both of which struggled in 2011. If their offense avoids the injuries that plagued it in 2011, the Reds are my favorites to win here. I think they'll scrap with the Cards till the end, but ultimately they'll win this division. Cincinnati Reds

NL West - I think this will be one of the most fun divisions to watch in 2012. Let's start with the reigning champs. The Diamondbacks had a great 2011, going from worst to first, largely on the back of their pitching and the amazing managerial talents of Kirk Gibson. They improved over the offseason, stacking their bullpen and adding a good starter in Trevor Cahill. Their offense looks to be mostly the same as last year with notable improvement in Jason Kubel. There's no reason, based on last year and the offseason, to believe the Diamondbacks will be anything less than they were in 2011. The trouble for them is that other teams in the division will probably improve. The Giants had a quiet offseason with nothing major to report, but a full season from Buster Posey could change the entire outlook of the team for them. Their 2011 was bad only because of injuries to key players. Give them health, and they can easily win this division again. Interesting as well are both the Rockies and the Dodgers. The Rockies have had a pretty successful offseason, and combined with the big Ubaldo Jimenez trade in the summer of 2011, they now have incredible pitching depth, and they improved their offense with veterans Michael Cuddyer and Marco Scutaro in the offseason. I have no idea what they'll do, to be honest with you. I could see them in second place, and I could see them in fourth. The Dodgers will stay alive and probably around 80 wins thanks to the efforts of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, but the team isn't going anywhere until they sell and spend from money on free agents. And the Padres...well, enjoy Carlos Quentin, I guess. I choose the Giants this year, because I think they'll bounce back strong and the Diamondbacks might regress just a tad. San Francisco Giants

NL Wild Card(s) - The wild card are quite hard to pick here. Reasonable teams include Washington, Atlanta, Miami, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Arizona. Who do you pick out of that mess? Well, personally, I pick the Washington Nationals. I love this team, I think they're really going to have a great 2012. The offense isn't going to turn heads but should be a solid anchor, and their rotation is just plain lights out. If a second wild card is allowed this year...geeze, I'm practically picking a name out of a hat here. I think it could be St. Louis, Atlanta, Miami, or Milwaukee. My gut is screaming St. Louis at me, so let's go with that. (Wild Card 1: Washington Nationals ; Wild Card 2 St. Louis Cardinals)

Postseason:

The post season is very difficult to predict, so I'll mostly be going off gut feelings and conjecture. It's damn near all you can do at this point.

Hypothetical Wild Card Playoff

Supposing this happens, we have a one game playoff between the Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays, and a one game playoff between the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals. Choosing the winner of a single game between two playoff teams is like flipping a coin, and that's exactly what I'll be doing. This extremely scientific logic leads to the Rays over the Angels, and the Cardinals over the Nationals. Unfortunately, this now leads to a bit more work for me, since there are now two ways the NLDS and ALDS can unfold.

ALDS

In this case, the Angels have made it to the ALDS. I think the Rangers will have the best record in the AL, and so we have the matchups of the Rangers vs the Angels and the Yankees vs the Tigers. It's a difficult call to make here. The Tigers went over the Yankees last year, but the Yankees got better and the Tigers really didn't. I'll take the Yankees, please. The Rangers and the Angels is a tough nut to crack - just as the division is nearly a toss up to me, so is this series. Hey, look, there's that coin again. The coin says Angels, so there you have it folks. If the second wild card makes it this year, then the Rays take the place of the Angels against the Rangers, in a series that I think would be just as close. I'll take the Rays this time, partly because the coin said so, but also because I think the Rays are a better team than the Angels and arguably better than Texas.

NLDS

One wild card and an assumption of the Phillies having the best record in the NL gives us the Phillies versus the Nationals and the Giants versus the Red. The first series I give to the Phillies, because they're basically the Nationals but with the rotation in its prime, while the Nationals rotation needs a little more time to get there. The Giants and the Reds is a little tougher of a call but I'll give it to the Giants. I think it's a case of the offense being that much better than the Reds offense and the pitching being just a little bit better. Swapping St. Louis for the Reds in case of a second wild card, I still like the Giants. I think they'll outpitch the Cardinals and while the Cardinals will bring an offensive threat, I still think the Giants outdo them.

ALCS

I still have two projected ALCS - the Yankees vs the Rays and the Yankees vs the Angels. For the former, their pitching lines up as dang near even to me, but the Yankees offense is much better than the Rays. I reluctantly give that series to the Yankees. For the latter, I like the Yankees offense a little bit more, the Angels rotation a lot more, and the Yankees bullpen a little bit more. It'd be tight, but I think I'd give it to the Angles. So, fantastic, now I have two World Series projections.

NLCS

Simpler this time, it's the Giants vs the Phillies. I like the Phillies all around better as a team than the Giants. Slightly better offense, much better pitching. Not a ton of conversation to be had about this one, methinks. I have the Phillies here.

World Series

Well, there's two of them. One is Yankees vs Phillies, the other is Phillies vs Angels. I certainly hope it's the latter, so I can root for somebody to win this thing. In the case of the former, we have the age old question come up - batting vs pitching. Who wins that? The track record seems to indicate t hat when it's a battle between the two, pitching wins. The Cardinals had very slightly better pitching than the Rangers, the Giants were the better pitchers, the Yankees were better on both scales, the Phillies were better pitchers than the Rays, and the Red Sox were better than the Rockies on both scales. So, over the last five years, when it came down to the battle, the pitching won. Admittedly, a small sample size and not necessarily the best argument anyway, but I would give it to the Phillies here. In the case of the latter,the Phillies still have better pitching, though to a lesser degree than they would over the Yankees, but conversely, the Phillies gain offensive ground over the Angels compared to the Yankees. The differences are less apparent now but I still like the Phillies with a small edge.

So, there you have it ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to put the prediction in now - your 2012 World Series champion will be the Philadelphia Phillies. Now excuse me while I sacrifice a goat to the elder gods, so that they might prove me wrong and let a more engaging and interesting team win. Of course, this is all way far out and before we even get to spring training in earnest, but this is the landscape as I see it now.

I hope everyone will make their own predictions and debate mine. My methodology is far from absolute and even I'm not thrilled with my pick to win it all.

 

[The Brain]

Well Harthan, you beat me to the punch. I was going to start this thread around March 1, but with pitchers and catchers reporting now is as good a time as any. I’m going to do mine a little differently. I’ll try my best to give each team a look (alphabetical by city) and then list my predictions. I’ll put each division in separate posts to avoid setting the record for longest post. Let’s start with the senior circuit.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

They were the 2010 wild card and fell one game short of that in 2011. There’s no reason to think they won’t be in contention again. Being in contention is one thing. Making it to the postseason is another. The division is improving so the Braves are going to have to step it up in order to stay competitive. I’m looking at you Jason Heyward. He’s still only 22 but with two years under his belt it’s time to take the next step. Chipper Jones is several years past his prime and likely has only a year or two left. I’m not saying it’s do or die time for a 22 year old but Heyward needs to rebound from a disappointing 2011 and make the Braves his team when Chipper leaves.

The Braves have more than just Heyward. I said that Heyward will make the Braves his team when Chipper leaves but you could argue that Brian McCann has already taken that role. He’s been the best consistent offensive catcher for the past several years and a catcher with a big bat is always a luxury. Freddie Freeman is another promising youngster in Atlanta. He doesn’t have the power you expect from a first baseman, although 21 homers for a rookie isn’t too shabby, but he’s capable of putting up a good average and has a better than average glove. It was a tale of two halves for Dan Uggla and the real Uggla falls somewhere between those two halves. He’s never going to approach a .300 average and his glove is a liability, but no second baseman in the game has more power than Uggla.

Long gone are the days of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz but the Braves staff of 2012 has some promise. Tim Hudson is closer to the end of his career than the beginning but he has talent, experience, and leadership skills that will help out the rest of the young staff. Tommy Hanson has the ability to be one of the best pitchers in the league, but like countless others before him his health will be the determining factor. Brandon Beachy has some potential. That’s a name I didn’t know a year ago at this time but one I will have my eye on. I’m not sold on Jair Jurrjens. He had a great first half last year but I need to see more. The Braves tried shopping him this winter and there were no takers. That should tell you something.

Miami Marlins

It’s certainly a new look Marlins in 2012. Welcome to Miami Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, and Ozzie Guillen. Those look like some nice additions and should definitely help the last place Marlins. Add them to the promising players that they already have, such as Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez, and the Marlins have to improve don’t they?

His record doesn’t show it but Anibal Sanchez has developed into a really good pitcher. I expect him to have a breakout season. Ricky Nolasco is someone I would have expected to breakout already. He’s been ok but not quite the pitcher I thought he would be. He’s only 29 and oftentimes pitchers take longer to develop than hitters. If Nolasco and Sanchez can live up to their potential the Marlins could proudly put their rotation up against anyone in the league.

The two key factors for Miami are going to be Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. Johnson is probably a top ten pitcher in all of baseball when it comes to talent. The question is how much he will be able to pitch. He’s got that injury prone label on him right now and a full season could be a big difference maker for the Marlins. Ramirez also has top ten potential when it comes to talent on the offensive side. The million dollar question we’ve been asking all winter is how he will handle a move to third base. Can he keep his ego and attitude in check for the betterment of the team? If the answer is yes we could see something special in Miami this year. If the answer is no it could be a long and disappointing season.

New York Mets

It’s going to be a long season for the Mets. Their pitching staff is mediocre at best and their offense isn’t much better. He’s still a great player but David Wright hasn’t been the superstar stud everyone expected him to be. Jason Bay has been a bust. Ike Davis has potential but he’s not going to be a difference maker. R.A. Dickey as the staff ace should not make Met fans happy. Johan Santana has become an afterthought. The best part about the Mets 2012 is going to be a high draft pick in 2013.

Philadelphia Phillies

They’re clearly the team to beat and this year they might just be beatable. Did I just say the mighty Phillies who won 102 games last year may be beatable? Yes I did. The stacked offense may not be as stacked as it seems. Ryan Howard is not going to be ready for the start of the season. When he finally does come back he’s going to need some time to get back to form. If you would have asked me about Chase Utley a few years ago I would have told you he is going to be one of the stud players in the NL for the next decade. Now he has the dreaded injury prone label on him. You can’t count on him. Jimmy Rollins is on the downside of his career. He can still contribute but 2007 seems so far away. The fact that there wasn’t much interest in him in the offseason is telling. The guy to watch is Hunter Pence. With Howard out and Utley sure to miss some time, Pence is going to have to step up and be the one to consistently carry the team. I think he’s got the talent to do it.

Oh by the way, the Phillies have a pretty damn good pitching staff. Roy Halladay is probably the top pitcher in the league. Cliff Lee is probably in the top five. Cole Hamels would be an ace on a lot of staffs but is number three in Philly. I said the mighty Phillies may be beatable. Key word is may. Their offense has some question marks but the top three in their pitching staff is as reliable as it gets.

Washington Nationals

This team seems to be kind of the sexy pick this year. After years of misery things are beginning to look up in the nation’s capital. There is still a way to go however. Ryan Zimmerman should be the franchise. Like some others I’ve mentioned he’s got the talent. He just needs to stay healthy. Even though he’s been around for a long time Zimmerman is still just 27 years old. His best is yet to come. I’m not as sure about Mike Morse and Jayson Werth. Where’s Morse been? He had a big year last year and if he were five years younger I’d be all over him. A breakout year at age 30 points more toward fluke than potential. Werth may become exposed in Washington. He looked good when surrounded by some big guns in Philly but I don’t know that he has what it takes to be the big gun himself. Of course everyone is anticipating the debut of Bryce Harper but how about we let this guy reach the legal drinking age before we crown him the next big thing and making postseason plans in DC.

The staff looks good but definitely not as good as Philly and maybe not as good as Miami. I, along with everyone else, am very curious to see what Stephen Strasburg can do in a full season. Jordan Zimmermann looks good but I’m not completely sold on him yet. Edwin Jackson can be good but he seems like kind of a roller coaster. Gio Gonzalez I like. A lot. I expect big things from this guy going forward and he could end up being the best pitcher on the staff.

That was longer than I expected but let’s get to the predictions.

Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets

I wasn’t too high on them but the Phillies are still the team to beat in the east. I think the window may be closing but the pitching will keep them at the top. If Cole Hamels leaves town after the season it may be do or die time in Philly. I think this race will be close and I expect it to get really interesting in 2013.

 

[The Brain]

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

They’re going to win the World Series. End thread. Oh how I wish. I really hope to see a Cubs championship sometime in my lifetime. That doesn’t seem like a lot to ask but I don’t know that there’s anyone alive who has seen one. It’s not going to happen this year. Unfortunately there isn’t much to say about my Cubs. Starlin Castro is the future. That’s about it. Ryan Dempster is ok and I really like Matt Garza but I have a feeling that’s not quite going to cut it. Maybe Theo needs three years to build a winner. 2014 is the last year of Soriano’s contract so maybe Back to the Future 2 will be proven right with a Cubs championship in 2015. 2012, not so much.

Cincinnati Reds

The 2010 division champions were supposed to be a team on the rise but it was another sub .500 season in 2011. I expect better in 2012. Joey Votto is a stud. He’s the kind of guy a team can build around. I think Jay Bruce is going to break out this year. He’s already been pretty good and I think better days are ahead. I expect Votto and Bruce to be one of the best one two punches in baseball this year. They should drive Brandon Phillips in a lot. Scott Rolen is definitely past his prime but I think he still has something to offer both on the field and in the clubhouse. I’m curious to see how rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco does.

Mat Latos is a lot better than his 9-14 record from last year indicates. There is some concern since he’s moving from one of the best pitcher’s park to one of the worst. I think he’ll handle it just fine. A healthy Johnny Cueto will be valuable to the Reds this year. Like Latos he won only nine games last year but pitched better than that. Each of those guys could get up to 15 wins this year which will make a big difference for the Reds.

Houston Astros

I would like to thank the Houston Astros for being so bad that they will keep the Cubs from the cellar. Who are these guys? I really don’t have much to say about them. The pitching staff is decent and that may be being kind. 90+ losses, I think so.

Milwaukee Brewers

It’s too bad they couldn’t get to the World Series last year. That was their shot. I’m not writing them off by any means but I think 2012 will be more difficult than 2011 was. Obviously losing Prince Fielder is a devastating blow. He’s a hard guy to replace. I will give them credit though. Aramis Ramirez is no Prince Fielder but he was about as good of a replacement as they could have gotten. There are some question marks spread throughout the offense. Will Ryan Braun have to serve that 50 game suspension? Even if he doesn’t how has whatever he was on effected his performance and will he do as well without it? Will Rickie Weeks be able to stay healthy? He finally lived up to his potential in 2010 but it was back to the DL in 2011. Will Nyjer Morgan be able to back up his big mouth on the field? Highly unlikely as he’s always been a mediocre player known more for his antics than his performance. He thinks he’s a professional wrestler instead of a professional baseball player.

I find myself saying the pitching is looking good for a lot of teams so far. Pitching is back in the 10’s (or whatever this decade is called). A lot of people will call Zack Greinke the staff ace, and the Brewers are lucky to have him, but I think Yovanni Gallardo is even better. Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf aren’t likely to capture many headlines but both are capable winners. John Axford closing games is pretty nice too. The Brewers are still contenders but they will have to work a little harder this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates

They teased us last year. It’s hard to believe they were right at first place at the All Star game. Call it a collapse or just reality catching up but they ended up with 90 losses finishing below .500 for the 20th consecutive season. Soon to be 21. Andrew McCutchen is a dynamic player but what else have they got? Is Pedro Alvarez going to be able to prove he belongs in the big leagues? Are Jose Tabata and Neil Walker any good or are the just the best in a bad bunch? The pitching staff doesn’t look very stable either. The spell check on my computer keeps wanting to change injury prone to Erik Bedard. I don’t see AJ Burnett being able to make much of a difference. It’s such a shame because the Pirates used to be good and were once proud franchise. Sorry Pittsburgh but you have a Cub fan that feels sorry for you.

St. Louis Cardinals

They are the reigning champions but who saw that coming? When Adam Wainwright went down in spring training last year a lot of people wrote the Cardinals off. He’ll be back this year but I think they’re missing someone else. Hold on while I take a minute to look up who they lost this offseason. Oh that’s right, they lost the best player in baseball over the past decade plus. With all due respect to Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols is impossible to replace. The lineup looks ok but it doesn’t look like a championship lineup to me. Beltran, Lance Berkman, and Rafael Furcal have all seen better days. David Freese became an October legend in St. Louis. Can he ride that momentum into a big season?

You would think the pitching will be better with Wainwright coming back. He hasn’t pitched in over a year. Will he be able to return to form? How much does Chris Carpenter have left in the tank? The Cardinals always find a way to be competitive. No one gave them a chance last year and look what happened. I remember no one gave them a chance in 2006 either. I don’t expect big things from the Cardinals but I won’t be surprised if they end up in the postseason again. You can’t ever count them out.

Predictions

Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros

Ryan Braun may prove to be the wild card here. If he can continue to perform at the level we’re accustomed to and avoid the suspension the Brewers may repeat as division champions. I don’t think his performance will suffer much but the suspension will be hard to avoid. Even if everything goes perfectly for Braun the Reds are going to be some tough competition.

 

[VinnieSunshine]

AL Central - Alright, now listen up. I know you want me to pick the Tigers. Everyone says pick the Tigers. Well...okay, I will, but not without severe qualification first. The Tigers aren't half as hot as you think they are. Everyone wants to gloss over Victor Martinez in the wake of the Prince Fielder signing, but my bet is that between adjusting to AL pitching and hi customary slump after a great year, Prince Fielder will essentially be a tit for tat replacement for Victor Martinez. All well and good, you say, since the Tigers dominated the division last year. Not so fast. It's almost certain Verlander will regress toward his average, as is customary with Cy Young winners. I suspect that will cost them 2-3 wins (keep in mind they won 95 in 2011). Miguel Cabrera is a bit of a wild card but he may be in for some regression due to the positional change (every time he plays at third it's going to cost his team, and even if he plays at DH it'll be an adjustment). Still, I won't count that heavily. Valverde probably overperformed, and a variety of other factors lead me to expect the Tigers to regress to something like a 90 win or just under team. Now, the flip side, the Cleveland Indians, who were an 80 win team in 2011, but have tremendous potential. Ubaldo Jimenez is almost certainly going to bounce back, probably not to 2010 levels, but a guy that could probably add 4 wins to this team. A healthy season from Shin Soo Choo, who showed no signs of the injuries affect his performane when healthy, makes up even more of that gap. Sizemore is less likely to great even if healthy, as the injuries have been shown to take a toll on his performance when "healthy", but I'm hopeful he'll do better than he did in 2011. What I'm adding these numbers up to is a Central division in which both the Indians and the Tigers are pursuing 90 wins, don't make it, and fight tooth and nail to the end. I'll pick the Tigers overall, because I'm probably just being delusional with regard to Cleveland. Detroit Tigers

Im trying to expand my comments to other sections of the forum so I figured I'd throw my 2 cents in here. Now, I dont follow baseball all that much, but being from the Metro Detroit area I always have love for my Tigers and try to keep up with them.

I agree with everything you said. Everyone here keeps saying how "this is their year". Well...it's not. At least I dont think so. It's not their year because of the changes to the line-up and the addition of Prince. Now, I loved Cecil, but I Im not sure how much of an asset Prince will be THIS YEAR. New team, new style of pitching...it takes some time for a player to adapt. Last year we had a string of injures, V-Mart being out for the season isn't going to help us. It's going to be a fight this season to prove that signing Prince was the right thing to do. I criticized his deal...haven't seen him play, but $214 over 9 years is a Hefty contract. Much love to my boys though...Ill be cheering them on as always.

 

[The Brain]

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

They were the surprise story of 2011 and now they’re on everyone’s radar. Will the overachievers of 2011 be able to repeat that success in 2012? They do have on of the game’s best rising young stars in Justin Upton. At only 24 years old he already has five years experience and continues to get better. I expect even bigger things from him in 2012. Who is the real Aaron Hill? It’s starting to look like his huge 2009 season was a fluke. He may not be as bad as his 2011 indicates but if you’re waiting for a repeat of 2009 you’re going to be waiting a long time. Chris Young and Stephen Drew are both good players but neither has lived up to their full potential. Still they’re nice guys to have on the team and with Upton around neither has to be the one to carry the load.

The west is wide open and the Dbacks pitching staff may be the determining factor. I know Ian Kennedy had a monster season last year. I don’t expect a repeat. I’m just not sold on the guy yet. He’ll probably have a good year but he’s not going to be near 21-4 again. I like the potential in Trevor Cahill. This year we need to find out what kind of pitcher he really is. Was 2010 a fluke? We’ll find out this year. Daniel Hudson is the guy I like. Kennedy and Cahill get the attention right now but I expect Hudson to be the breakout performer this year.

Colorado Rockies

Since their incredible run at the end of the 2007 season I have been on the Rockies bandwagon. I’m starting to wonder why. They’ve been disappointing for the past few years. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are two of the brightest stars in the game but they haven’t been able to carry the team to success. The addition of Michael Cuddyer should help but I don’t see him putting Colorado over the top. Todd Helton used to be one of my favorite guys to watch. He’s about six years past his prime.

The pitching staff doesn’t appear to be anything special. I don’t see the addition of Jeremy Guthrie making a whole lot of difference. Jhoulys Chacin could be good but I’m not putting much stock in a team that has one pitcher that could be good. They’ll need Jorge De La Rosa back sooner rather than later to have a chance.

Los Angeles Dodgers

They have possibly the best offensive player in the game in Matt Kemp. They have possibly the best pitcher in the game in Clayton Kershaw. That’s a great start to a winning team. The problem is it doesn’t go much beyond that. Time for Andre Ethier to step up. He’s done well before but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. If he can do what many expect he can do the Dodgers will have a great combination in the middle of their order. I’ve been a James Loney supporter for a while now but I’m ready to abandon ship on him. He’s ok but the Dodger lineup is not strong enough to have a below average offensive first baseman. He needs to show a little more pop.

Maybe I’m misremembering but wasn’t Chad Billingsley supposed to be a stud pitcher? He’s been good but far from stud. Ted Lilly is always reliable. He’s not going to blow anybody away but there’s definitely a comfort in having someone as consistent has him on your staff. Oh by the way, Clayton Kershaw is as awesome as awesome gets. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see another Cy Young Award find its way to him this year.

San Diego Padres

The surprise team of 2010 fell back into reality in 2011. I don’t see much to be excited about in the 619 district. Carlos Quentin should help the sad state of offense in San Diego but I don’t see him returning to his 2008 form. Former first round draft choice Cameron Maybin hasn’t even come close to fulfilling his potential. Yonder Alonso is supposed to be the future but the future is not 2012.

There isn’t much good to say about the staff either. What can Edinson Volquez do over the course of a full season? He did really well in his only full season but that was four years ago. Tim Stauffer and Corey Luebke are ok. So between a guy who can’t stay healthy and another few who are just ok it’s safe to say the Friars will be near the bottom of the league again.

San Francisco Giants

Ever since Barry Bonds left the game the Giants have had problems scoring runs. They’ve tried to address that issue by bringing Melky Cabrera in but I doubt he’s going to be much help. My guess is 2011 was a career year. I think it’s time for Aubrey Huff to be good again, right? He seems to alternate between good years and bad years. I’m not convinced that trend will continue. The two guys that are going to need to carry the team are Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey. Posey has to be considered a question mark since he’s still so young and coming off a brutal injury. I do think Sandoval is ready to become the team leader. He rebounded nicely from a poor 2010 and I think he’s turned the corner to become a true star.

Enough with the offense. Everybody knows it’s the pitching that carries the Giants. Tim Lincecum hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was during his back to back Cy Young seasons but he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league. Matt Cain may be one of the most underappreciated pitchers in all of baseball. If the Giants could score any runs for him he could be a 20 game winner. If this guy was pitching for the Yankees or Phillies he’d be considered a top ten pitcher for sure. Madison Bumgarner is young but this kid looks like a natural. Too soon to tell but I think he’s the real deal. I don’t think that about Ryan Vogelsong. The 34 year old hasn’t given any indication that last year was anything but a fluke career year. Barry Zito is still on this team right?

Predictions

San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

There isn’t really a team that jumps out at me as a sure favorite to win the west. On the other hand there isn’t a team, besides the Padres, that stands out as a team with no chance. It should be a tight race and a fun one to watch.

 

[The Brain]

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Two or three years ago I said the Orioles would be a contending team in 2012. It looks like I was wrong. I thought they had a good group of young guys to build around in Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis. I still have hopes for Wieters and think this will be his breakout year. I think the same may happen for Jones. I’ve accepted that Markakis is probably not going to be the player I thought he would be but he is still a good guy to have on a team. While I still like those three there isn’t much else. Brian Roberts seems like he’s 100 all of a sudden. Mark Reynolds has always had some pop but I have a hard time getting behind a guy who strikes out 200 times a year and barely hits .200. Chris Davis at first base? Really?

The real disappointment is the pitching staff. I thought Brian Matusz was going to be big time. Maybe he’ll still be a decent pitcher, he’s only 25, but it sure doesn’t look like he’s going to be what I thought. The same could be said about Chris Tillman, although he’s only 23. I’m not giving up on either of these two yet but my 2012 prediction is not going to come true.

Boston Red Sox

What a collapse, huh? Will they be able to recover? Carl Crawford was possibly the biggest disappointment in 2011. He has to bounce back doesn’t he? One guy who wasn’t a disappointment was Adrian Gonzalez. He has become one of the game’s best stars. Where did Jacoby Ellsbury get all that power? We knew he was a threat on the bases but the power surge was unexpected. Same goes for Dustin Pedroia. I trust Pedroia more than Ellsbury but if either of these guys are going to suddenly become power hitters the Sox will be in pretty good shape.

It’s anybody’s guess as to which Josh Beckett will show up. He’s good more often than he’s bad but he’s also hurt more often than he’s healthy. Jon Lester has turned into one of the better pitchers in the game and has quietly taken over as the staff ace. I’ll be interested to see how Andrew Bailey does closing games in Boston. He’s looked good so far but doesn’t have a whole lot of innings under his belt. This year we’ll find out if he’s going to be an elite closer.

New York Yankees

What can I say? They’re the Yankees. They are almost automatically the favorites. Do I really need to get into it? The lineup is stacked. As Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter get closer to the end of their careers Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson have stepped up.

The Yankee staff has arguably looked better than it has in years. Of course CC Sabathia is a stud. Hiroki Kuroda has been an under the radar solid pitcher. We know Michael Pineda has tremendous potential. It may be his last year in the sun but as long as Mariano Rivera is still playing he’s still the best.

Tampa Rays

They lost so much last year but somehow still made the playoffs. The lineup doesn’t look overly impressive but these are good young players who know how to win. The real strength is in the staff. They have five young guys who all have star potential. It might be difficult to do but if the Rays can lock them up they could be good for a long time.

Toronto Blue Jays

So I guess Jose Bautista is real after all. I wasn’t quick to jump on the bandwagon but I have to take him seriously now. Brett Lawrie sure is getting a lot of attention for someone who’s only had a cup of coffee in the majors. I’m buying into the hype. He looks like a natural. Adam Lind is pretty streaky but if he can put it together for a full season the Jays will have a powerful middle of the order.

I’m all about Ricky Romero. I think he’s ready to step up and be a big time pitcher this year. The rest of the staff isn’t overly impressive. I’ve liked Brett Cecil and Jess Litsch but I admit probably more than I should. If they were in the central I’d give Toronto a chance. Unfortunately for them they’ve got some tough competition.

Predictions

New York Yankees
Tampa Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Not very exciting picks right? I just kept it the same as last year. I’d like to go out on a limb and be a little different but I’m not going to say something I don’t believe to do that. Maybe within the next year or two I can move the Blue Jays up on this list but for right now it’s the status quo.

 

[SuperHater]

NL Easthillies-as a Braves fan I hate to give these guys credit but they're a good team.

NL Central:Cardinals-Losing Pujols will hurt but no one else improved that much in this division. Plus they get Wainwright back.

NL WestiamondBacks-Just a guess but I think the Giants fall back a little.

Wild Card#1: Braves-homer pick, although I think they will bounce back. There's no way Uggla struggles that long this year. Heyward can't be that bad. And no way the injury bug hits that bad again.(except for Chipper Jones)

Wild Card#2:Marlins-scrappy team that is always in games got a whole lot better

AL East:Yankees-Pineda sealed it for me

AL Centraletroit- I think it will be alot closer than most

AL West:Angels-Pujols...They stole Texas' pitcher..should be enough...plus they get Kendry Morales back

AL Wild Card#1:Rangers-still a good team...especially if Cruz can stay healthy

AL Wild Card#2:Red Sox-pitching can't be that bad again...can it?

 

[jrichardson25]

I'm not going to go into a huge list... (as I don't follow much past my particular divisions NL & AL West for both LA teams)

I expect the Dodgers to struggle because the lack of a sale. Once McCourt is out of the picture and they get a season to build they could get it done in the West.

I expect the Angels to be trouble for any AL team with the additions of CJ Wilson and Albert Pujols... I'm still pissed at Arte Moreno for that insane amount of cash for a 10 year contract... If the Halos don't go all the way this season its a waste. They did hire pitching staff that has had success over the past few seasons. That helps where they were exceptionally weak last season.

So AL West: Angels.
NL West: Giants - they won a couple years ago... they could be trouble again.
AL Central: Detroit ^I agree with the above poster
NL Central: Cardinals. Even with Pujols gone they're solid and can get to the WS again.
AL East: Yankees. Almost a sucker bet to go against them. They've bought the best.
NL East:Hotlanta or Philly.

Wild Card- I have no idea....

 

[rohfan76]

ill make this short then mention the ny teams since im from nyc..

Al East - Red Sox
AL Central - Tigers
Al West - Angels
Wild Cards - Yankees, Texas
(remember we get 2 wild cards this season with the new rules)

NL East - Miami
NL Central - Cardinals
NL West - Diamondbacks
Wild Cards - Phillies, METS (yeah i said it so what?)

NY Yankees - burnett is gone so skankee fans can stop bitching. They got a great rotation so they def will contend for the al east crown. i can see the red sox, tampa and yanks fighting for the al east and wild cards. 90+ wins at best

NY METS - going to be a LONG season. didnt get anything in starting pitching and I'm not sold on Johan Santana being healthy all year long. They really need a #2 and #3 starter. I think Pelfry has to go.. He hasnt been good since 2008. Dilon Gee I think will have another great yr with maybe 10-13 wins. Dickey I dont see having a good yr.. maybe at best 10 wins.. the pitching will really kill them. Offensively, they will miss Reyes a ton! I think with the new dimensions of Citi Field, they can win games and wright can have a much better season. but its gonna come down to the starters and relievers to get the job done. I think the relief pitching will be the downfall of this team. Im not sold on rauch or fransisco.. im being nice as a METS FAN but i dont see them making the playoffs and i think the 2012 offseason they will clean house and hopefully get some top notch FA's.. I see them with 70-80 wins at best..

 

[Megatron]

AL Central
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Kansas City
4. Minnesota
5. Chicago

The Tigers appear to be the only team in the division that is capable of winning a championship this season, largely in part to the addition of Fielder (although losing V-Mart is a bigger loss then people are realizing). I'd expect slight regression from Verlander, although that shouldn't be surprising since even the greats have hard times duplicating seasons in back to back years (with Johan Santana's 04-06 being the only real instance in the past decade or so). Still, Verlander is the best pitcher in the AL, and the Tigers have the best rotation and offense in the division. They probably won't rank high in most defensive categories, especially the infield, but that is an issue I think has been overblown a bit. While I would've liked Cabrera at DH, all reports have said that he's wanted to go back to 3rd for a while now, and him dropping 25-30 pounds already this winter shows he wants to play the position. While I don't expect him to be a gold glover there, him playing slightly below average defense and still producing with his bat would make him the best 3rd basemen in the league. A guy I could really see breaking out is Brennan Boesch, who will be hitting in the 2 hole in front of Cabrera and Fielder. He had a nice bounceback season last year before getting hurt in August, and with pitchers not wanting to have runners on base when Cabrera and fielder come up, they'll attack Boesch with strikes.

As for the other teams in the division, none really seem like a viable candidate as one of the two wild card teams since the East has 4 teams that will be in the battle and the West will have 2 others. There seems to be noticable flaws, although they could overcome them. The Indians are having injury problems already with the oft-injured Grady Sizemore and closer Chris Perez out for Spring Training and they also took a large step back after going 15 games over .500 in early May or whenever. The Royals have great young talent offensively, but the pitching could hold them back from being big winners this year. They traded for Jonathan Sanchez, but his ceiling might only be as a back end guy. I would've liked to see them go after Roy Oswalt on a 1 year deal, but I'm not sure he would've came anyways. The Twins have somewhat of the same problem as KC, only they also don't have Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer anymore and Justin Morneau may never be the same with his concussion problems. The White Sox seem to be stuck in no mans land, blowing up some of their team and giving away good, cheap pieces on the other hand (Sergio Santos). Really, it's the Tigers division to lose and anyone can be arranged in spots 2-5 and I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[The Brain]

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

What a disappointment last season was. There were a lot of Sox who had a down year and they were the underachievers of the American league. What the hell happened to Adam Dunn? After averaging 40 home runs over the past seven seasons Dunn hit only 11 in 2011 while hitting an embarrassing .159. It would be nearly impossible for him not to improve in 2012. Still, even though it’s only one down year it was so bad that it’s hard to imagine him returning to his previous success. If you still believe in Alex Rios you shouldn’t. This guy has talent and has shown flashes of greatness but you just can’t count on him. He has never been able to consistently live up to his potential. He’s capable of having a good year but I wouldn’t bet on him. Gordon Beckham has been overrated in Chicago since the day he was drafted. He was rushed to the majors and would have greatly benefited with some more minor league experience. He’s still young but I’m putting the bust label on him.

The loss of long time pitcher Mark Buehrle is going to hurt the Sox but there is still talent in the rotation. I’m a fan of John Danks and the contract extension he received this winter shows the Sox are too. He is better than what his 2011 line shows. Sometimes when a top prospect doesn’t live up to what the scouts thought he was going to be he tends to get undervalued. That’s what has happened to Gavin Floyd. He’s not the stud many thought he would be when he was in the Phillies farm system but he is still a quality pitcher that most teams would love to have. 2007 seems like a lifetime ago for Jake Peavy. Let’s not forget this guy was once one the best pitchers in the game. Injuries have taken their toll but Peavy says he feels good. I was a big fan of his so I’ll give him one more year before I throw in the towel on him.

Cleveland Indians

They surprised a lot of people by finishing second in the division but still ended up two games below .500. Still not bad considering many people picked them to finish at the bottom of the American league. As a former first round pick and the main piece in the CC Sabathia trade from years ago it’s time for Matt LaPorta to step up. He hasn’t been the guy the Indians hoped he would be and with a few years experience under his belt at age 27 he needs to take his game to the next level. A full season with Shin Soo Choo probably would have resulted in a winning season for the Tribe. He’ll be back this year and should be a difference maker. Remember when Travis Hafner was a total stud? He’s not anymore and hasn’t been for a while. Maybe it’s time he and the Indians part ways. Ditto for Grady Sizemore. Was Asdrubal Cabrera’s 2011 a breakout or a fluke? My guess is fluke but I’ll happily admit if I’m wrong.

Can we all agree that the guy we saw during the first half of 2010 was not the real Ubaldo Jimenez? I’m not saying the guy is not going to be a good pitcher but if you’re waiting for him to get back to that level you’re in for a disappointment. Remember what I said about Alex Rios. Same goes for Fausto Carmona. Nice season for Justin Masterson but I’m not hoping on that bandwagon quite yet.

Detroit Tigers

Everyone’s pick to win the division and I’m no different. They are clearly the favorites and rightfully so. I think this is going to be a run away so I’ll be brief. Needless to say Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are going to be one of the game’s best combinations in the middle of the order. Justin Verlander may very well be the best pitcher in all of baseball. Ripken, Eckersley, and Wells can plan on spending some time in the motor city in October.

Kansas City Royals

They are kind of a sexy pick but I think most will agree they aren’t quite there yet. I love it when a struggling team starts to return to glory and I think after nearly a quarter century of losing there is finally a reason for optimism in Kansas City. Now that the weight of the world is off Alex Gordon’s shoulders he’s becoming a good player. He was almost doomed from the start being labeled the next George Brett. It seemed like being anything less than the legendary hall of famer was going to be viewed as a disappointment. Now that people have lowered their expectations they see that even though Gordon isn’t as good as a 3000 hit club and hall of fame member he’s still got some skills. Speaking of high expectations, how good is Eric Hosmer going to be? My guess is very good. He’s got a lot of hype to live up to too but at least nobody’s calling him the next George Brett. Hosmer should be a star for years to come. It seems like Billy Butler has been around forever but he’s only 25 years old. He’s been unnoticeably good and I think a breakout season is coming up.

I want to say the Royals will have a great season but I just don’t trust their pitching. Luke Hochevar had his best season last year but it was still pretty mediocre. He’s not the guy the Royals were hoping for when they took him with the first pick in the 2006 draft. Bringing in Jonathan Sanchez was a good move. He had a rough year last year and hasn’t shown any consistency yet but I like the trade they made as Sanchez has a good upside.

Minnesota Twins

After about a decade at the top it felt like the late 90s again in Minnesota in 2011. It’s hard to imagine the Twins as the cellar dwellers in the division but I don’t have to imagine it because it was a reality. It was just one of those years where nothing went right. They just don’t seem like the same team since leaving the Metrodome. When the two guys who are supposed to carry your franchise are always injured it’s hard to win. Forgive me for stating the obvious but Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are crucial to the Twins’ success. If they can bounce back the Twins have a chance. If not it’s going to be another long season.

Carl Pavano definitely has some upside but I don’t see how anyone could count on him. He has the ability to perform like an ace but no team should be comfortable with him as their ace. I guess that rookie phenom we saw in 2006 is not the real Francisco Liriano. There isn’t much difference between the number one starter and the number five starter in Minnesota. The problem is they’re all closer to number five than number one in terms of talent.

Predictions

Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins

Again, I expect Detroit to run away with this. The rest could fall in any order. I may be a little early on the Royals picking them for second. I think attitude and confidence is important and there just seems to be a certain confidence in Kansas City that hasn’t been seen since the 80s. Besides the Tigers the division is weak so they could make it to second this year. Second and third was pretty much a coin toss. I expect Cleveland and Kansas City to be very close. I really could have gone either way. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Chicago finish higher than fourth. So many guys had a down year that you would think a rebound is going to happen. I’m pretty set on them in fourth though. Really it doesn’t matter as the only team that’s going to be playing in October is the Tigers.

 

[CH David]

AL East

The Yankees still don't have truly reliable pitching in the rotation outside of CC. Their offense will carry the bulk of the load this season most likely. If the Yankees do win, it will be from the offense and getting excellent starts from CC and another great season from Rivera. Can Boston recover from their collapse? Quite possibly. They've got the talent all around to win. Their rotation is solid though can be susceptible to injury. Their pitching depth is going to be extremely important if they are to compete. Lineup can match up with anyone. Toronto is probably a few years from legitimately competing if their GM is able to spend money in the coming seasons. Baltimore will likely be at the bottom, though Adam Jones is exciting to watch. My pick is the Rays. They brought back Carlos Pena so that is a big addition and more RBI than they got last year from the 1B position. The lineup is solid and Evan Longoria is the MAN!! Pitching is a little suspect but shouldn't hinder them much.

AL Central

The logical pick is the Tigers. They got the second best hitter on the market this winter, and create a great one-two punch with Cabrera and Fielder in the lineup. Not to mention the best pitcher in the AL. They are likely to run away with the division. The Indians are going to be without Grady Sizemore for a while, and may get Perez back by the start. They've got solid talent and I expect them to finish near .500, possibly better. Royals may be starting to finally put it together. They have a lot of good, young talent on the team. I hope they can finish over .500 this year. Twins will hopefully rebound from a dreadful season. For once they couldn't just plug a guy in and still win 88+ games. "Thank you!!!" Gardenhire will have the team ready to rebound if guys are healthy. I will continue my optimism that the White Sox can actually come back from such a dismal year last year. Dunn can't be as bad as last year. It simply cannot happen. Rios should improve to his career numbers, and I'm putting a lot of faith in Gordon Beckham and some younger guys. Konerko has been a beast the past two seasons so if he stays healthy I expect the same. Chris Sale is the wildcard of the rotation and Peavy is all a matter of staying healthy. Pen should be solid. Tigers win it, but I'm holding hope for the Sox!

AL West

This is now a two team race. The Angels picked up the best first basemen in baseball and got a good starter in CJ Wilson. The rotation is sick, and the lineup is a lot better with Pujols in it. The Rangers lost Wilson, but the rotation is still decent. The lineup is still excellent, and if Josh Hamilton can stay healthy they are in excellent position to win. Seattle is going nowhere, even with King Felix and Ichiro. It's unfortunate too, as both are some of my favorites. Oakland is better but not by much. I like Dallas Braden, Brandon McCarthy, and Gio Gonzalez though. Who knows, maybe Yoenis Cespedes will actually be what he is in his youtube videos and be an excellent player on the field.

Wild Card

Both will be coming from the East and West. If the Rays and Rangers win, add in the Yankees and Angels and vice versa. I'll throw hope to the Red Sox to beat the Yankees in the standings. But four of those five teams are likely to make the playoffs. Who wins from there? Hell if I know.

 

[The Brain]

AL West

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are back among the favorites of the American League. The trio of aging outfielders is a bit concerning to me. Torii Hunter can still contribute but I think we can all agree his best years are behind him. Bobby Abreu has been one of the more underappreciated players in the game over the past ten years or so but his power has disappeared. Vernon Wells is a lot like his former teammate Alex Rios. All the potential in the world and has put up some big years but more times than not he disappoints. Three years ago Kendrys Morales look like the next big star. He hasn’t played since May 2010. He’s finally ready to come back. Can he pick up where he left off after missing so much time with such a bad injury? If I remember correctly the Angels signed a decent free agent over the winter but I can’t put my finger on it. Let me go look that up…..oh yeah, it was Albert Pujols. He should help them.

Even with the addition of Pujols I’m not overly impressed with the Angels lineup. I am however pretty impressed with their staff. I don’t know that I’d call Dan Haren elite but he’s pretty damn close. Jered Weaver may have joined the elite with his big year last year. He’s the real deal. He’s had two strong years in a row but I’m still not on board the CJ Wilson bandwagon. I’m not sure he’s ace material. With that said, he’s not the ace. He’s the number three and I love him as a number three. Ervin Santana is always a little under the radar. He’d be a number two on a lot of teams so the Angels are in a pretty good position with him as a number four.

Oakland A’s

I don’t really have anything to say. They said goodbye to Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill and goodbye to any chance of being competitive. The intrigue of Yoennnis Cespedes is going to be the only reason people will remember baseball exists in Oakland. Maybe they can finish ahead of the Orioles in the AL this year but that’s about it.

Seattle Mariners

They’ve been on a roller coaster over the past dozen years and recently there have been more valleys than peaks. Young prospects Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero would lead you to believe they’re approaching an incline again but I think their just going to keep the Ms level for now. Who was that guy wearing #51 in the Safeco outfield last year? With a .272 batting average it couldn’t have been Ichiro. .272 doesn’t seem like anything to complain about; unless you’ve got a .325 career average that is. At 38 years old is Ichiro finally starting to slow down? I wonder his Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson told Chone Figgins that once you sign a big contract with the Mariners you don’t have to perform up to it. Felix is still king and one of the best pitchers in the game but he can’t pitch every day. There isn’t much on the staff beyond him.

Texas Rangers

The reigning AL champions still have that stacked lineup that brought them to back to back fall classics. Ian Kinsler showed what he is capable of when he plays a full season. Injuries have been the only thing stopping him as he is a regular 30/30 guy when healthy. I wonder what Nelson Cruz can do in a full season. He’s put up some nice power numbers in his career without ever reaching 500 at bats in a season. A healthy Cruz could be very dangerous. Adrian Beltre has put together back to back great seasons. Has he finally become the player we assumed he would be years ago? How good is Michael Young? This guy has been so underappreciated for so long. No matter what he’s asked to do he goes out there and gets the job done. Was 2011 a career year or a breakout year for Mike Napoli? Probably the former but the Rangers will still be in good shape even if he regresses to his previous form. Let’s not forget 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton. Between Kinsler, Cruz, and Hamilton the Rangers are pretty injury prone. If they can all stay healthy they should coast into October.

The concern is the pitching. Everyone seems to assume Yu Darvish is just going to show up and dominate. When are people going to learn? It is rare for a Japanese star to come to the US and dominate like he did in Japan. Darvish may be an exception but it is naïve to assume he will be. What about Neftali Feliz? He was great in the pen but the transition to starter is no an easy one. The potential is there for a strong staff but potential doesn’t win titles.

Predictions

Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
Oakland A’s

This is going to be a great race. A two team race but a great race. Forget Seattle and Oakland. They’re non factors. This is going to come down to the Ranger’s hitting versus the Angel’s pitching. I trust the Angel’s hitting a bit more than the Ranger’s pitching but that Texas lineup is just so stacked. I think it will be close and come down to the wire but I see the Rangers edging out the Angels for the three-peat.

 

[CH David]

Holy balls, Gonzalez was traded? Well there goes the A's chances of finishing out of last in the division, I think. Fail on my part.

NL East

The Miami Marlins and their awful uniforms have made quite a few moves. Signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle (FUCK!!! ), among others, and got Ozzie as their new manager. Buehrle is going to give you 200+ innings, 30 starts, and at least 10 wins so there ya go with that. They certainly spent money to win now. Please let it blow in Ozzie's face two years in a row! Braves are solid, and like the Red Sox, had a huge collapse in September. Chipper is a year older, but they do have a solid lineup and rotation. The Nationals have gotten more talent to the team. They got Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson added to the rotation so they add depth. If Strasburg stays healthy they can finish above .500. The Mets likely aren't doing much this year. I'm picking the Phillies. Their lineup is still really good, and that rotation is still loaded without Oswalt.

NL Central

I see it as a three team race. Cards have lost Pujols but gained Carlos Beltran. Remember him in '04? Fuck that guy was insane in the playoffs!! But that was 8 years ago. They are getting Wainwright back though. Certainly big for the rotation. Reds are a damn solid team. They should be able to finish above .500 this year. Brewers have got to be elated that Braun is getting to play the full season. He'll definitely help the lineup, and with the departure of Prince, they get Aramis Ramirez. He won't put up the same numbers, but a healthy Ramirez can fill some of the void. Nobody expects anything out of the Cubs. They are building toward a solid future. Whatever success they get this season is gravy. I really want the Pirates to finish over .500 this year. They haven't had a winning season in 19 years. Astros are going to the AL West after this season. I highly doubt anything major happens. If I've got to choose one, I'll go with the Cards as I think they have a better rotation than either Milwaukee or Cincy.

NL West

Damn. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. Actually a solid supporting cast too. The whole ownership thing had to be a distraction. They could be up there. Giants as well. The trade for Melky Cabrera could be very beneficial. When you've got Timmy at the front, it should be a solid year. Can the D-Backs follow up on last year? They certainly can. I like Aaron Hill at second, Justin Upton in the outfield and Chris Young too. Plus they got Jason Kubel. (THANK YOU!!) This could be a 2-3 team race for the division title. I expect very little out of San Diego. The rotation doesn't scare me much. Though they did get Carlos Quentin and if he can stay healthy he can do some damage. Rockies can be decent but I suspect them to finish under .500. Tulowitzki will likely have a very solid year. The starting rotation does even less to me than the Padres. I'll pick one, and I'll just go with Arizona as they did it last year. Won't be surpised if SF or LA win though.

Wild Card

I hope one comes out of the Central and West. Don't want the Marlins to make it. I'll say the Brewers aaaaaaand Giants. Seems to set up nicely for my predictions.

 

[Megatron]

AL East
1. New York
2. Boston
3. Tampa Bay
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

The only for sure thing in this division seems to be that the Orioles will be thinking about next year once the calendar turns to May. The other 4 are all capable of earning playoff berths, which makes it so hard to predict. The Yankees I do see taking the division because they have the best offense and have done a nice job improving their rotation with Pineda and Kuroda. They've also had a slight addition by subtraction by trading AJ Burnett to the Pirates. I know people aren't loving the Red Sox too much after their collapse and firing of Francona, but Bobby Valentine has a track record of his team improving in its win % his first year he manages a team (on both the Rangers, Mets, and in Japan twice). Everything went wrong both the first 2 weeks and final month, and the Rays still needed an improbable comeback to take their spot. Carl Crawford had a down year, and I expect him to turn it around once his injury heals. Their achilles heel will be their pitching, which is sort of limited. Beckett/Lester/Buchholz are a good 1-3 when healthy, but the problem for Buchholz is he can't always stay healthy. Plus, Daniel Bard is making a transition to the rotation, which is hit and miss for guys. Their back of the pen took a hit as well with Pappelbon leaving to the Phillies. If everything comes together and this somewhat no name bullpen steps up they could be the team everyone was predicting we'd see last year.

The Rays have the best pitching in the division and have some nice young talent with Longoria, Jennings, and Upton and I'm not comfortable with having them #3, but they should be in contention for the 2nd Wild Card all year. As for the Jays, their pitching is their downfall, with Ricky Romero being the only countable option. I could see them being in contention for the Wild Card spot (and I think the addition benefits them more than any other team) this year. The best division, it'll be tough 1-4.

 

[TWJC: The Beginning]

I'll come back with full predictions later.

What I'll say now is that the Miami Marlins will struggle to win 85 games and won't make the playoffs.

They won 70 games last year......70.....SEVENTY. That sucks. Javy Vasquez is gone, which isn't bad, but he was very productive last year, in fact, I double Buerhle matches that productivity so the addition of Buerhle (who is old as fuck) doesn't really help them. Getting Josh Johnson healthy will, but that's maybe +4 wins.

Jose Reyes is often injured and is a 28 year old speed guy (how is Carl Crawford and how did Jimmy Rollins, a comparable player perform after 28?). Even if he's healthy, he's a 5 WAR player at best.

Finally, heath bell.....who gives a shit. Closers are overrated, give most mediocre starters 1 inning to preserve a lead and they can do it. You never want to overpay for a closer (like Philly did with paps), much less a closer in their mid 30s.

Carlos Zambrano is a nutcase, if he's at his peak, he's maybe 4 WAR at this point. He's also on the wrong side of 27.

In other words, even if everyone plays to their potential, the Marlins are really only going to be 10-15 games better than they were last year. Last year they won 70 games. So at best, they'll win 80-85 games. Factor in that Atlanta will be better this year because the black hole Derek Lowe is gone and the likely progression of Heyward and Uggla having a more normal year, plus Washington getting better and it makes it even harder for the Fish to win that many.

I think Atlanta will be a lot better than people think. Remember, before their 2 best starters got hurt last year, they had the 4th best record in the Majors, IN THE MAJORS. that was also with Heyward, Uggla, and Lowe sucking. So, with Heyward, Uggla, and Lowe sucking, and their best two starters being pretty much gone/ineffective for August/September, they STILL ended up with 89 wins.

 

[CH David]

What I'll say now is that the Miami Marlins will struggle to win 85 games and won't make the playoffs.

I hope you're right, but the reasons you listed I just can't agree with.

They won 70 games last year......70.....SEVENTY. That sucks.

I'll get to this part later on.

Javy Vasquez is gone, which isn't bad, but he was very productive last year, in fact, I double Buerhle matches that productivity so the addition of Buerhle (who is old as fuck) doesn't really help them.

First off, 32 years old is old as fuck? Please man. The guy is consistent as consistent gets. Buehrle may not match the strikeouts that Vasquez does, but he matched the wins that Vasquez got last year, both got 13, but had two less losses. But I suppose that productivity goes down the drain because he is 32 years old, compared to the, at the time, 34 year old Vasquez. Christ you're right! The older guy had a similar season but Buehrle is old as fuck.

Getting Josh Johnson healthy will, but that's maybe +4 wins.

I think a guy, who only pitched 9 games last year, and had a 3-1 record, given a full season if healthy, can give more than just 7 wins. If he is on the mound for a full season he will get at least 10+ wins.

Jose Reyes is often injured and is a 28 year old speed guy (how is Carl Crawford and how did Jimmy Rollins, a comparable player perform after 28?). Even if he's healthy, he's a 5 WAR player at best.

Ahh you're a WAR guy. Sabremetrics are lame. If Reyes is healthy he adds so much to the team. It's certainly a big if. It has been four years since he played more than 150 games. But really, a healthy Jose Reyes is a great option at the top of the order and at shortstop.

Carlos Zambrano is a nutcase, if he's at his peak, he's maybe 4 WAR at this point. He's also on the wrong side of 27.

Yes because people 30 and older just absolutely suck. If he sucks this year, it won't be because of his age, it will be because he can't keep his cool. If Ozzie keeps him in check, he could have a bounce back season.

In other words, even if everyone plays to their potential, the Marlins are really only going to be 10-15 games better than they were last year. Last year they won 70 games. So at best, they'll win 80-85 games.

Ahh now we are at the record thing. Let me just direct you to the Diamondbacks of last year. 65-97 in 2010, 94-68 in 2011. A 29 game turnaround for a team that was picked to finish last. Turnarounds happen. '05 Tigers went 71-91, '06 Tigers went 95-67. 24 game turnaround. '07 Rays were 66-96, '08 Rays went 97-65.

If everyone plays to their potential a 10-15 game improvement isn't the best they can do. Each guy they picked up makes the team better if 100%. It's not out of line to think they can make the playoffs.

Factor in that Atlanta will be better this year because the black hole Derek Lowe is gone and the likely progression of Heyward and Uggla having a more normal year, plus Washington getting better and it makes it even harder for the Fish to win that many.

Just playing Devil's Advocate here. The Marlins got better too, which makes it harder for Washington and Atlanta to win too. But yes I agree, Atlanta will be a tough team.

I get it. With everyone's WAR they should only win 10-15 more games. But really, WAR is unreliable, just like a lot of sabremetric stats. I really don't want the Marlins to make the playoffs, but with the guys they brought in, in addition to the players they have, it is entirely possible for them to win 90+ games.

 

[Theo Mays]

AL East: Give me Tampa Bay here. That pitching staff is young and wicked. This team could be scary good if the offense produces. That's a pretty big if though. After Longoria there isn't much to ride home about. I still like this team on paper though. Sox and Yanks will definitely be in the mix though, watch it.

AL Central: Going with the Tigers, but it will be more difficult than many think. The Tigers are obviously the favorite with their staff and the addition of Prince Fielder. Many like them and I can see why. I just think they will have a rocky start and pick it up at the end. I just see one of the other teams in the division giving them a run early on. Not sure who though, but I'd say the White Sox right now.

AL West: Two team race really. Texas and LA. Angels added Pujols and Wilson to the mix and the Rangers are still solid with the adding of Yu Darvish. I like the Angels here by a very slim margin. Gonna be a fun race in the west.

AL Wild Card: Give me the Rangers and the Yankees. Both teams will be close in their respective divisions and will lock up some WC spots. I like the Rangers in the one game playoff to advance on.

AL World Series rep: Tampa Bay Rays.

NL East: I'm gonna be a homer here and pick the Phillies. We have a solid team and while I'm not too excited for the season I think we will still field a winning ball club. Pitching is still solid, hitting will be ok for the year. The team is getting up their in age though so if they wanna make one last run with the current core right now is the time. Marlins are a sexy team this year, but I don't expect them to be as good as predicted. Braves will give the Phils a run and the Nats could be a sleeper team.

NL Central: I like the Reds here. Though not as much as I did when Braun was gonna be suspended. That puts the Brew crew back in and you can't sleep on the Cards. However I think the Reds will still prevail. They had a nice offseason bringing in Latos and Madson and their lineup is one of my favorite in the NL.

NL West: This is the toughest division to pick, but something tells me the Rockies are gonna take it this year. Tulo is my early MVP pick as I think he is going to carry this team to the division crown. They have a solid staff and the lineup behind Tulo ain't too shabby either. DBacks and Giants will certainly keep it interesting though.

NL Wild Card: Speaking of the DBacks and Giants I like one of them to grab this spot here. Right now I'm going with Arizona. And I'm giving the Brewers the other. Milwaukee will prevail though.

NL World Series rep: Cincinnati Reds.

World Series: Not exactly a sexy World Series with Cinci and Tampa, but I think that it will lead to a fun show and be some exciting baseball. Both clubs are young and new to the scene (in terms of recent success) and the matchups are what I want to see. Both teams have solid pitching staffs and can hit the ball. I give the advantage to the Reds in terms of offense, Rays in pitching. Pretty equal if you ask me. In the end I got the Reds in 6.

 

[Megatron]

AL West
1. Texas
2. Los Angeles
3. Seattle
4. Oakland

Every team in this division was at least semiactive this offseason, for good or bad. Texas filled their hole that CJ Wilson left by signing Yu Darvish. The Angels made the first real big moves by landing both Pujols and Wilson within the span of a day or two. Seattle dealt Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero, and the A's brought in the Cuban sensation Yoenis Cespedes and ManRam, along with trading Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez.

This division will be a 2 horse race, though. Texas has the superior offense, but the Angels have a more complete pitching staff. Texas doesn't really have a true ace at the moment, although many think Darvish is capable of taking that role soon. Their offense shouldn't have much trouble scoring runs. The Angels possess a top 5 rotation but how much protection can they give Pujols? If they can finish in the top half of the AL in scoring they'll be a playoff team. I like Seattle over Oakland because they didn't deal every pitcher that was good on their team, and the one they gave away brought in a decent return for offense. They'll be hard pressed to break 80 wins, and may have to wait a few years to really be in contender status. As for Oakland, the thing they'll be watching is how Cespedes turns out, since he was a decent gamble by a franchise that isn't known for shelling out money. They're in the same boat as the Mariners, so it'll be a long season.

 

[Megatron]

NL Central
1. Cincinnati
2. St. Louis
3. Milwaukee
4. Pittsburgh
5. Chicago
6. Houston

This division looks like it'll be separated in two tiers - the 3 contenders and 3 non contenders. All 3 of the contenders have serious questions to answer. For Cincy, it's whether or not they can get better pitching with the addition of Mat Latos. For St. Louis, its about who will replace the production of their former star Pujols. For the Brewers, it's the same as the Cards, except substitute Pujols with Fielder. I like the Reds most because they have the best offense in the division and made a nice upgrade with Latos over Volquez. The Cards probably won't be hurting as much as people believe, since they are getting a top rotation guy back in Wainwright and have brought along Carlos Beltran to help fill in the production. Still, this team was one night away from staying at home for the postseason. They'll be in the wild card hunt for most of the year. Milwaukee will take a slight step back in their offense and Brauns numbers will regress slightly without Fielders protection, but the rotation will be a bit stronger and have a better year (specificially Greinke who'll have a full year of NL play under his belt).

As for the other 3, Pittsburgh is shooting to just get above .500 for a season. Baby steps, people. They still need high quality pitching and a true ace, but may have to wait a year if their top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Tallion aren't quite ready. Year one of the Theo era will be a sluggish one for the Cubbies. They have some top 100 prospects in their system already, but this year will be about them having a nice draft and developing their young guys. The Astros don't have a lot to hope for, though, other than the fact that they will be switching leagues after this year and will have to adjust their team accordingly. They are a long rebuilding project and they will likely spend the year in the basement.

 

[TWJC: The Beginning]

I hope you're right, but the reasons you listed I just can't agree with.



I'll get to this part later on.



First off, 32 years old is old as fuck? Please man. The guy is consistent as consistent gets. Buehrle may not match the strikeouts that Vasquez does, but he matched the wins that Vasquez got last year, both got 13, but had two less losses. But I suppose that productivity goes down the drain because he is 32 years old, compared to the, at the time, 34 year old Vasquez. Christ you're right! The older guy had a similar season but Buehrle is old as fuck.



I think a guy, who only pitched 9 games last year, and had a 3-1 record, given a full season if healthy, can give more than just 7 wins. If he is on the mound for a full season he will get at least 10+ wins.



Ahh you're a WAR guy. Sabremetrics are lame. If Reyes is healthy he adds so much to the team. It's certainly a big if. It has been four years since he played more than 150 games. But really, a healthy Jose Reyes is a great option at the top of the order and at shortstop.



Yes because people 30 and older just absolutely suck. If he sucks this year, it won't be because of his age, it will be because he can't keep his cool. If Ozzie keeps him in check, he could have a bounce back season.



Ahh now we are at the record thing. Let me just direct you to the Diamondbacks of last year. 65-97 in 2010, 94-68 in 2011. A 29 game turnaround for a team that was picked to finish last. Turnarounds happen. '05 Tigers went 71-91, '06 Tigers went 95-67. 24 game turnaround. '07 Rays were 66-96, '08 Rays went 97-65.

If everyone plays to their potential a 10-15 game improvement isn't the best they can do. Each guy they picked up makes the team better if 100%. It's not out of line to think they can make the playoffs.



Just playing Devil's Advocate here. The Marlins got better too, which makes it harder for Washington and Atlanta to win too. But yes I agree, Atlanta will be a tough team.

I get it. With everyone's WAR they should only win 10-15 more games. But really, WAR is unreliable, just like a lot of sabremetric stats. I really don't want the Marlins to make the playoffs, but with the guys they brought in, in addition to the players they have, it is entirely possible for them to win 90+ games.

Dude, you used pitcher wins as a stat. I lost a lot of respect for your opinion on baseball. It's such a useless stat. Let's see, pitcher A goes 5 innings, gives up 100 runs, his team scores 101 in that same time, the bullpen holds the lead, he gets a win, pitcher B goes 15 innings, no hits, his teammates give up 3 errors in the 16th inning, he loses 1-0. It's a stupid ass stat. Using it basically shows me that your level of baseball knowledge is pretty low. No offense, but it is. It's probably the single worst stat to judge pitchers by. What next, gonna use RBI, a stat nearly entirely dependent on runner speed and whether or not the previous hitters got on to judge a hitter?

32 actually is old when you're paying them as much as Buehrle is being paid. Studies show that pitchers age quickly in their mid 30s. Whether it's this year or next year, Buehrle is a good bet to start declining and fairly rapidly. I don't care if he and Vasquez had the same amount of wins, Vasquez was disgusting down the stretch. Buehrle is consistently "very good". At best, he's an even trade for Vasquez's production last year. I don't mean that in 2012 Buehrle won't be better than Vasquez in 2012, I'm saying that Buehrle in 2012 won't be better than Vasquez in 2011, meaning he doesn't actually add any value, he just replaces what was lost.

Again, you are comparing Josh Johnson 2012 to Josh Johnson 2011, that's not who he's replacing. There are only so many innings in a year. This is what you don't get. It's not "Josh Johnson only had 3 wins, he'll get 18 this year, thus, plus 15 wins". He has to take someone else's spot.

Last year the Marlins got this from their starters:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/FLA/2011.shtml

162 starts from 11 guys. Johnson, if he starts 32 games, starts 23 games more than last year, those 23 games have to come from someone else. In other words, you can't just add on starts, you have to ALSO take them away from someone else. That's why I say he's not more than maybe 5 games better. You compare the Marlins 2011 ace, whoever you think that was, to 2012 Josh Johnson, who is their ace so far, and THAT is the production level you compare.

Yea, I'm a sabermetrics guy when it comes to veteran MLB players. You have a fairly consistent environment that if it's not consistent, you have metrics to adjust. You have mounds of data. You know who else are saber guys? Most GMs. You use scouts to evaluate young players that go against competition that doesn't have adjustable metrics and trust your scouts to evaluate upside. Sabermetrics do a damn good job at pretty much everything at the MLB level except young players because it's hard to gauge when a guy will break out. Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it's lame.

Players older than 30 don't suck, they just aren't as good as they were 25-29. Speed players especially because human males don't keep their speed. Reyes is a speed guy, is over 29, and is often injured. Why the hell would I expect anything other than a decline?


Wow dude, you just listed a bunch of teams that look NOTHING like the Marlins. D'Backs success last year was due to 3 things. 1) was their revamped bullpen 2) several of their younger players, namely justin upton, broke out, these these are hard to evaluate, 3) their talented young pitching broke out. Explain where exactly the Marlins are young and have break out potential? Mike stanton is monstrous but other than that, nobody on their roster is going to see a significant increase in production.

Tigers? Well this guy named Justin Verlander had a breakout year, another 23 year old, Bonderman had a really good year too. O look, YOUNG players, UNDER 30 having huge increases in production.

The Rays? They haven't had a starter over 29 in like 3 years. Do I really need to list Evan Longoria, David Price, James Shields, etc?

The common thread in huge turnarounds of 20+ games (which is what the Fish would need) is YOUTH. They don't have it. They have guys who have peaked. Nobody on their team except Johnson is going to produce a lot more than they did last year.

You have to think critically and not just go "TWENTY GAME TURNAROUNDS ARE POSSIBLE" that'd be like me building an airplane without knowing how and assuming it'll fly because it looks similar. The Fish look like a team that spent a shitload of money to make it look like they care. Bottom line is they only won 70 games last year and will have to win 20 more games in a division that's harder now than it was last year. Not gonna happen unless the Braves are hit with a ton of injuries, everyone on the Nats regresses (I'm looking at you Morse), and the Phillies all die in a horrific accident.

How can you say "with the players they brought in"? Who did they really bring in? They brought in a steady, "good" mid 30s pitcher, a mid 30s closer, a nutcase starter who hasn't been effective in forever, a "speed guy" in his late 20s, and a nutcase manager. Meanwhile the best ran team in baseball, the Rays, sign a guy in his early 20s with electric stuff to a cheap deal. What does that tell you? Youth is where it's at. Guess who in the NL East has the most youth? The Braves. Beachy, Minor, Jurrjens, Hanson, Teheran, Vizcaino, Medlen, Delgado, Kimbrel, and Venters. Those are just the PITCHERS that are either at the beginning of their prime or well before it. If even a few have a jump in productivity, they'll be better than last year. Plus you have Heyward and Freeman on the offense. Pastornicky is coming up but I don't count him because he's a low ceiling guy.

You can argue feelings and all this other nonsense, but when you look at hard evidence, it's hard to logically say that the Marlins will finish any better than 3rd this year in the East.

Most sophisticated predictions agree with me. Most of them also do a poor job at projecting young talent. In other words, on the LOW END, most people who are smarter than either one of us think Atlanta will finish ahead of the Marlins.

If you want to debate with pitcher wins, RBIs, and gut instinct, I'm not your guy. If you want to look as objectively as possible, I'm all for it. I'm not 100% saber as I said. I think FIP is a joke stat. I think younger players are better projected through scouts. However, when you have a TON of evidence that supports a typical player production curve and a TON of statistics for each player by the time they're in their late 20s, it's not that difficult to project them.

 

[TWJC: The Beginning]

I think I'll do best case/worst case.

NL East
Phillies
Best Case: Injuries are low, all their players in their mid 30s hold off decline another year, 105 wins
Worst Case: Injuries are rampant, all their players in their mid 30s show their age, the improved Braves, Nats, and Fish play well, 85 wins.

Braves
Best Case: A majority of the young players make leaps, Uggla doesn't shit the bed again, Hudson and Chipper don't get injured or drop off a cliff, 100 wins

Worst Case: Heyward and Uggo suck again, Hudson gets hurt, none of the young pitchers peform, Prado gets hurt again, McCann falls off a cliff/gets hurt, 80 wins

Nationals
Best Case: Morse wasn't a fluke, Strasburg is disgusting all year, Gio Gonzalez controls his walk rate and doesn't turn into Oliver Perez, Harper gets called up and mashes, 93 wins

Worst Case: Mors is a fluke, Stras gets hurt, Gio walks everyone and turns into Oliver Perez, Harper struggles at AAA, 78 wins

Florida Marlins
Best Case: Mike Stanton wins the MVP, Josh Johnson the CY, Reyes/Hanley/Zambrano/Guillen get along and are all productive, Braves and Phillies have problems, 90 wins

Worst Case: Zambrano pisses everyone off, Stanton grows at a normal rate, Guillen quits, Hanley and Jose both stand at SS because they can't agree on who plays where, Braves and Phillies produce as projected, 70 wins

Mets
Best Case: They are the 2000 Mets
Worst Case: They are the 2012 Mets


Not as scientific as what I plan on doing, but I felt like I needed to post SOME sort of projection. Maybe I'll go roster by roster and see what they added/lost, look at the player's ages and then apply a loss/gain.

 

[Megatron]

NL East
1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Washington
4. Miami
5. New York

A pretty solid division 1-4, I expect the Phillies reign on the division to extend to another year. There still is the big 3, and while the offense is hurting with some injuries to Howard and Utley, the pitching should be able to carry them to another division title for a final year (since they're likely to lose Hamels and are getting old). The Braves will still give them a run for their money despite their collapse, and I see a young pitcher or two (Minor, Teharan, Beachy, etc.) stepping up and having a surprise season. Freddie Freeman will have a solid 2nd season, Michael Bourne will be a nice leadoff guy, and Chipper will wanna go out with the bang. I have the Nationals slightly over the Marlins because I have more faith in their staff. Strasburg will be awesome for the 160-170 innings he pitches, Zimmerman/Gonzalez provide a strong middle of the rotation, and while a guy or two will regress (Morse) Werth will bounce back. The Marlins will probably be around 80-85 wins, but aside from Johnson (who struggles to stay healthy) and Buehrle, I don't like their rotation that much. I do like some of their offense, but their staff makes me wanna stay away a bit. As for the Mets... let's hope they get new owners.

 

[Megatron]

NL West
1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. Colorado

I see SF winning the division yet again because they hopefully will have Buster Posey (far and away their best hitter) for the whole year and have one of the best pitching staffs in the entire league. Plus, should Melky Cabrera replicate his production from last year they'll have another reliable bat. Arizona was a pleasant surprise last year, yet you have to sense some sort of regression after they were 6 games above their Pythagorean W-L. Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy are still studs, but they won't get as many lucky bounces as they did last year, although they'll still be in the playoff hunt. The Dodgers have two stars and a bunch of league average players, so they'll likely be fighting for .500. At least they won't have McCourt owning the team for much longer, so next offseason they should be able to make a few splashes (Hamels? BJ Upton? Matt Cain? Zack Greinke?) The Padres have made some shrewd moves, including trading ace Mat Latos for 4 guys that could be vital to their future. They will always have good pitching (in part due to their ballpark) and could see a real breakout year by Cameron Maybin (which my fantasy team would love). This team is only 1 year removed from losing the division by 1 game, so there is potential there, should they get just enough offense. Colorado will never have 'great' pitching, but the problem is this team got older and was still a middling .500 team. Tulo and Cargo is a great start and from the sounds of it Pomeranz or White (can't remember which) looks great in Spring Training. They're the opposite of the Padres - if they can get just enough pitching they'll be in the hunt till the end. I just don't see it, though.

Now, for my playoff predictions:

AL
1. New York
4. Los Angeles over Boston

2. Texas
3. Detroit

3. Detroit
4. LA

NL
1. Philadelphia
4. Arizona over Atlanta

2. Cincinnati
3. San Francisco

1. Philadelphia
2. Cincinnati

World Series
Detroit over Cincinnati in 6

Yes, homer pick. However, I do think the Tigers are a slightly better team this year and that team was only 2 wins (out of 3 that were awfully close) away from making another WS. Trusting Dusty Baker to have great success with Cincy might be a mistake, but I like the trade for Latos and this offense can compete with any. Probably won't happen, but it's a bit outside of the box and not completely unrealistic since the playoffs are a crapshoot.

EDIT: Oh yeah, here's my award predictions:
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
AL ROY: Yu Darvish, Texas
NL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Milwaukee
NL MVP: Justin Upton, Arizona
NL ROY: Yonder Alonso, San Diego

 

[Richard Blonoff]

AL East
1) New York Yankees-It pains me to put the Yankees on top again as I despise them. I think they did enough to to keep their offense at a similar level to last year. I think their pitching will still cause them some minor problems but its solid enough to keep them in the race
2) Tampa Bay Rays-In my opinion TB had the best rotation in the division. I would even wager to say they have the best pitching staff top to bottom as well. If they can get the production from Carlos Pena they did when he was an All-Star for them and get some help at catcher during the season they could make a serious run.
3) Boston Red Sox-Following the collapse last year they cleaned house. They have some question marks at short stop and in right field. Catcher is ok but not great, Salty can do a solid job but without Varitek's clubhouse presence I think the team will suffer. If the starting rotation can stay healthy and pitch to the levels they are capable of they have a chance at the playoffs.
4) Toronto Blue Jays-Toronto have some big bats in their lineup. I think they will lead the league in homeruns. They rely on the long ball a bit too much though and despite the big bats they don't hit for average. Their pitching is average at best. That said, if they have some breakout performances in from their rotation I wouldn't be surprised to see their names still in the race late
5) Baltimore Orioles-The O's have a chance to make improvements this year if their offense produces like it is capable of. Their problem though is pitching. They have guys in the bullpen who are solid and they may use as trade bait but they need help in their starting rotation

Overall I think the division will be a tough one and they will spend a lot of time beating up on each other. I think New York, Tampa Bay, and Boston all have legit playoff hopes this season but I doubt any will make a deep run.

AL Central
1) Detroit Tigers-I think Detroit will repeat as division champs. I think is Prince Fielder meshes well and Miguel Cabrera can transition back to 3rd easily and stay out of trouble they will be serious World Series contenders. They have great pitching, big power, solid fielding, a solid bench.
2) Chicago White Sox-I think Chicago will take second place this year but don't expect them to have a winning record. They have a very good starting rotation and a solid bullpen. They have some good bats but most of them are aging. Their infield is solid but their outfield is iffy, and it remains to be seen if Adam Dunn can bounce bacl.
3) Kansas City Royals- Last year the Royals quietly had a decent season by their standards. They are a relatively young team headed in the right direction but still a bit to young to challenge for the division. They a terrific young infield and a solid outfield, although center is a bit of a question. They don't have a bad rotation but at this point its just average. They lost some of their big arms on the bullpen though. While they are still a few years from contendership don't be surprised if they hover around the .500 mark this season.
4) Cleveland Indians- Last year Cleveland was a big surprise early, stayed competitive most of the season, they fell off at the end. Their pitching staff will keep them in games but they just don't have the star power to improve on last season. They have a couple of players they can build with going forward but I feel like last season was a fluke.
5) Minnesota Twins-The last few years some of Minnesota's better players have had trouble staying healthy. If they can stay on the field they should turn it around a bit but don't expect them to return to the glory they had in the mid 2000s, they have too many question marks. Their pitching may surprise some people but they will probably trade off some of them to build for the future

Outside of Detroit I don't see any of the teams in the division having a winning record. I think that Chicago will try to make a run while some of their veterans can still play full time but they would be better served going into rebuilding mode. KC has a bright future, but Minnesota and Cleveland are stuck somewhere in between rebuilding and trying to field a competitive team

AL West
1) Texas Rangers-After going their entire existence without a playoff win they have made back to back World Series trips the last two years. I don't think they will get back there this year but they will still take the division. I don't expect them to be as dominant as they have been since they have some questions around their pitching staff but they have the bats to carry them back to a division title.
2) LA Angels-Big splash this off season for the Halos, picking up arguably the best player in the game Albert Pujols. They have a good pitching staff and some solid bats but I still don't think they have enough to dethrone the Rangers. It will be closer and if the outfield can raise their performance from last year they have a chance to make a run.
3) Oakland A's- Oakland made some moves this off season, both for the immediate and long term. They traded their closer to Boston but they still have a decent pitching staff. They have some decent bats but not enough to make a run yet. I think they will be around the same performance as last year.
4) Seattle Mariners-The M's have fallen on hard times recently. Their trades haven't worked out well, their free agent signings have largely been busts, and they can't keep a manager. I think they will improve this year as they have some young guys who made strides last year. Outside of King Felix and an aging Kevin Millwood they have a largely inexperienced pitching staff however that could hold them back.

I think both the Rangers and Angels have legit playoff hopes this year. How the Rangers pitching staff holds up remains to be seen, but they have to bats to cover if they break down. The Angels will gain some ground but I don't expect them to overtake the Rangers this year. Oakland and Seattle still have too many holes to contend but they are moving in the right direction with younger players.

I will get my NL predictions up later