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All the Sweet Chin Music did was disorient Lesnar. He still had his wits about him to get out of there and recoup. Yes, he got hit by Sweet Chin Music, but no way did it keep him down.
True, it didn't stop a fresh Brock. The PerfectPlex didn't stop a fresh Ultimate Warrior at Survivor Series 1990 but that doesn't mean a spent Warrior wouldn't have had trouble with it. Brock after 15-20 minutes with Shawn would react differently to a superkick me thinks. Also remember that for some reason in wrestling, you can be beaten down for ten minutes straight and hit a single move to put your opponent down for just as long. It doesn't make sense but it's what happens for some reason.
Lesnar loses to guys that either can make him tap out (Angle or Benoit), or guys that beat him with pure power (Big Show or Goldberg). Shawn Michaels is neither a submission wrestler, or a power wrestler. He's not going to outlast Lesnar, he's not going to outspeed Lesnar, and he's not going to out brutalize Lesnar.
The brutalize I agree with as it's not Shawn's style. The outlast would favor Shawn in the long run as he has far less body weight to carry around.
The one I flat out don't agree with is speed. I've seen this come up earlier and I don't get it. Yeah Brock was especially fast for a big man and fast in general, but Shawn is one of the quickest guys in wrestling history. Shawn is built for speed and wouldn't lose to brock if this becomes a race.
I'm not completely discounting HBK here, I'm just saying he's in a bad spot. To Michaels credit, he beat Triple H in an unsanctioned match at Summerslam 2002, which is probably the best, legit win in that list you have provided. I think Lesnar is every bit, if not more, viscous than Triple H ever was.
Brock now is, but if we're talking in their primes, Brock was nowhere near as vicious back in the day.
Hell in a Cell was a big stage, but Kane assisted in that win. Kane's not rescuing him here.
That's true, but anything goes here, meaning Shawn can use a few nefarious means of his own.
And HBK's needed a lot of outside interference to win a lot of his bigger matches. We could talk about his win against Bret Hart, against Sid at Royal Rumble, and others... but none of those had Extreme Rules involved.
What help did he have at Mania 12?
Lesnar would give HBK a tough time in a regular match, but where there's no DQ and Countouts, Lesnar wouldn't have to stop beating HBK until he was finished.
Think about this for a second: how many times has Shawn been dead to rites and come back with a superkick out of nowhere to put someone down?
Michaels has a lot of fight in him, but Lesnar would be too much and after HBK passing out due to losing tons of blood, Lesnar hits an F-5 through a table and wins.
Shawn is indeed in a lot of trouble, but he's been in a lot of trouble before and looked like he had nothing left before making a superhuman comeback. It's happened before and it can happen again.