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Right now I count around 43 healthy, male superstars on the WWE roster. At least 4 of those will be out due to being in world title matches. Can't say I'm overly excited to see Chavo, Curt Hawkins, Primo, and Tyler Reks in the Rumble. 30 was the perfect number to me.
You forgot the couple returns (Christian and Trips most likely) the surprise entrants (Tatanka or Duggan or something, maybe Piper v Snuka 2) probably Awesome Kong with a new and horrible name, and possibly a silly celebrity (lol drew carey)
That's almost a third of the participants. If it stayed at 30, there would be too much Nexus and not enough regular participants. 40 would put Nexus at 1/5 of the participants, which doesn't scream overkill.
Vince's message to take home: Fuck the midcard.
Sidenote: has anybody notable ever debuted in the Rumble Match?