Reds/Indians/D-backs 3-way trade

[Papa Pillman]

I'm sure all the Baseball fans here saw this trade go down a few days ago, here are the particulars...

Reds receive Shin Soo Choo and Jason Donald
Indians receive Drew Stubbs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw
D-backs receive Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson

I am a huge lifelong Reds fan, so I can only fairly evaluate from their point of view, and with that said... I love this deal.

The Reds only give up Stubbs, which I would quantify as addition by subtraction given their abysmal performance from the leadoff spot last season, and Gregorius who I like as a prospect but I feel was blocked due to not expecting he would be able to supplant Cozart on the big league roster any time soon.

The only drawback I see anyone mentioning for Cincinnati is that the Reds, who re-signed Ryan Ludwick prior to this deal, acquired Choo to play CF, a position that he basically never played in Cleveland, and one that he struggled with in Seattle early in his career leading to his trade out of that franchise.

So in response I looked further into the advanced metrics. First Stubbs, who Choo will be replacing, created 64 runs last year(wRC), and defensively posted a 2 DRS(meaning he is good for two runs saved in the field). If we assume that Stubbs will bounce back to some degree offensively, then his overall run contribution may be in the 80 range(compared to last year's 66). Choo on the other hand posted a 102 wRC- a number he should be able to improve upon considering the upgrade to a better offensive ballpark. Next, to try to get a handle on his possible DRS while playing CF, I needed to go somewhere outside the box so I decided to compare him with Colorado's Dexter Fowler. Fowler I feel plays the worst CF defensively in the NL when it comes to instincts and the way he plays balls off the bat(the issues that will probably hinder Choo most, and considering Choo makes up what he lacks to Fowler in speed by the fact that Great American offers less ground for him to cover than Coors does Fowler). With that a comparison piece, Fowler was a -10 DRS player last year(costing his team ten runs), and that could be an accurate guess as to Choo's likely Run Saved projection.

So I came up with a total run contributed projection for Choo at the low 90s range, placing him a good 10 and possibly up to 20 runs better than Stubbs, meaning that one lineup swap alone should add anywhere from 1-3 wins to the Reds projected win total, even after accounting for the extreme defensive downgrade.

This is a massive win for the Reds if those numbers hold up. And Choo will probably only be a one year rental, which should bridge the gap nicely until minor league stolen base champ Billy Hamilton is ready to ascend to the ML roster and take the everyday CF job. The Reds could also safely offer Choo a qualifying deal at year's end with little fear that Choo, a Scott Boras client, would accept it. That would earn themselves a supplemental first round pick to re-bolster the farm system.

As for the other two teams involved, my insticts say that Cleveland got the better of Arizona just simply by getting the highest rated prospect in Bauer, who projects as a middle-rotation arm at minimum(perhaps a top of the roation arm if he gets a handle on his contol issues), and who is major league ready.

Hopefully there are some Indians and/or D-backs fans who would like to join the conversation and give a little more informed insight into their own opinions as to how this trade stacks up for their team(s).

 

[6timehitta]

Well I'm neither's fan, but I follow all sports and when I saw this I said, D-Backs didn't get shit. Now with that being said, the Reds and Indians trade was intresting. Lets analyze this:

Reds get Shin Soo Choo and Jason Donald

WHILE THE:

Indians get Drew Stubbs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw.

Now Choo is a great player,I'd even say a top 10, maybe a top 5 RF. Stubbs still for being very young, is a top 10 CF. Stubbs is a high risk/high reward player. He'll lead the league in strikeouts, but is one of maybe 5 players who could lead their respective team in HR's AND SB's. With Stubbs you have a 30-30 potential and at his best maybe a 35-35. Needless to say, Stubbs might not be the biggest piece in this trade.

Trevor Bauer was a huge coup from the D-Backs system. He was a top 5 Pitching Prospect in that system. Bauer has the potential to fit behind Cueto and Latos as a solid 3 guy. Even at his best he could push Latos into the 3 role. Anyways Bauer could more consistent than Stubbs, the othere 2 pitchers are meh.

Choo is imho, declining as a player. His best days were before he had a DUI. He isn't the player thats going to be a guareenteed 20-20-.280 kinda. Kudos to the Indians for getting Stubbs and a fantastic farm han, as well as bullpen depth.

Winner in this trade: Indians

 

[Papa Pillman]

Now Choo is a great player,I'd even say a top 10, maybe a top 5 RF. Stubbs still for being very young, is a top 10 CF. Stubbs is a high risk/high reward player. He'll lead the league in strikeouts, but is one of maybe 5 players who could lead their respective team in HR's AND SB's. With Stubbs you have a 30-30 potential and at his best maybe a 35-35. Needless to say, Stubbs might not be the biggest piece in this trade.

Trevor Bauer was a huge coup from the D-Backs system. He was a top 5 Pitching Prospect in that system. Bauer has the potential to fit behind Cueto and Latos as a solid 3 guy. Even at his best he could push Latos into the 3 role. Anyways Bauer could more consistent than Stubbs, the othere 2 pitchers are meh.

Choo is imho, declining as a player. His best days were before he had a DUI. He isn't the player thats going to be a guareenteed 20-20-.280 kinda. Kudos to the Indians for getting Stubbs and a fantastic farm han, as well as bullpen depth.

Winner in this trade: Indians

I have a few problems with the conclusions that were drawn here...

First- I'm not sure where you were going with discussing how Bauer fits behind Cueto/Latos in the rotation considering he is joining Cleveland's rotation, not Cincinnati's.

Also, to say that Bauer would ever be on Latos's level is absurd to me. Latos has a career xFip of 3.60 with a K/BB of 3 and a K/9 well over eight. Aside from maybe K-rate there is nothing in Bauer's resume that indicates he could top those numbers at the ML level. Hell, I could make a case Mat is more of a true ace than Cueto.

As for Choo- where does this decline you speak of show up?

He had a line of .283/88/16/21/67. None of those numbers is a big dropoff. The small decline in HR and RBI is do mostly to hitting more at the top of the order. The run total was a career high and the SB total is right on his past numbers. He also delivered a .373 obp and .814 ops. Neither shows a large drop considering the reasoning already sighted for the slight power decline pulling down his SLG to a point. Also his numbers should get a bump moving to GABP- a haven for powerful lefties.

Finally I move to Stubbs. Where does your 35 homer potential come from? Or even 30? He never went over 12 in the minors, never over 22 in the majors, and over the last two seasons he has 29 total in over 1200 plate appearances. Also his numbers show sharp, steady decline and his slash line last season was an abysmal .213/.277/.610. And thats me showing his struggles without even mentioning his historically high strikeout propensity. The guy posted a negative WAR last season for god's sake. I couldn't be happier to see him go. Calling him a top-10 CF is a joke.

I myself know enough about the players involved to make surface evaluations about how the trade effects each team, but I was hoping there would be someone who could dig deeper into the metrics to show how this trade helps their team.

 

[Megatron]

I'm actually a Tigers fan, but I say kudos for the Indians for making the deal. They weren't gonna win a title with some of their current crop, and they need pitching BADLY, specifically starters. 3rd lowest Starter WAR last year, 4th worst FIP, T-2nd worst xFIP. With Choo having only a year left on his deal, being able to get what was a top prospect not even a year ago is good for them. Bauer does have some control issues, with 4.21 BB/9 in over 130 IP between AA/AAA. His majors total was even higher, but I'm not gonna take too much into that fact due to only 16 IP at the time and that's a minuscule sample size.

Nevertheless, Bauer should benefit even more because he'll be out of one of the more hitter friendly stadiums to go to a slight pitching one in Cleveland. While you don't want to make excuses for his poor starts by blaming it on the park, making all 4 of his starts in hitter happy parks (Arizona x2, Cincinnati, and Atlanta). And at only 22, he'll be cost controlled for a while. Bauer certainly has his question marks, but for Choo, Donald, and a minor leaguer, it's worth it.

Cincinnati has already been covered well, as for the D-Backs, I know that Bauer has fallen out of some favor with management and they have some other highly thought of pitchers including Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs, but they must know something we don't if they're willing to deal one of the top young pitching prospects for a reliever, a 25 year old AAAA player, and a good defensive but very raw SS prospect. There has to be something they aren't letting on. Has to.

 

[Papa Pillman]

as for the D-Backs, I know that Bauer has fallen out of some favor with management and they have some other highly thought of pitchers including Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs, but they must know something we don't if they're willing to deal one of the top young pitching prospects for a reliever, a 25 year old AAAA player, and a good defensive but very raw SS prospect. There has to be something they aren't letting on. Has to.

I don't think there is anything secretive going on. Bauer appeared to have fallen out of favor with the orginaization due to the control issues he was displaying, especially during his cup of coffee with the big club; however, I think the main key here is Gregorius. The Diamondbacks have been openly searching everywhere for a deal that would land them a young shortstop to shore up their future at that position, and Kevin Towers appears to have become enamored with Didi. He even went as far as to directly compare him to a young Derek Jeter. I guess all it really takes is for one GM to fall in love with a specific prospect, and the price of that prospect can become "whatever it takes", no matter how the rest of the league sees his value.