I think if it does actually happen, Big Show could win, but really what does this accomplish really?? Belt goes from one big monster face to another?? Ok.
Especially when it would be going to a BIGGER guy, which makes it harder for a smaller guy to win the title without looking like its cheap.
Someone in the tag title thread brought up a good point in reference to last night's confusing ECW. For anyone that might've missed it, they had the four losers from the ONS match (Morrison, Punk, Chavo, Dreamer) against each other to determine who would face Kane later on....but then they said it was a non-title match. As expected, the winner was Punk. Later on, Punk and Kane were given a lot of time in a pretty decent match (nothing special, just not painfully bad) which Kane won after a few reversals. Afterwards, Morrison and Miz attack the two of them....for what reason? Is it that the WWE feels (and I agree) that no tag team is suited right now to take the tag titles off The In Crowd without making Miz and Morrison look bad? A few months ago, you could make the case for Festus/Jesse or Yang/Moore, but they've lost all their momentum. So if they decide to go with a rematch of Kane/Punk against Morrison/Miz.......do they just have Kane do double duty, and possibly go against Punk if Big Show can't be medically cleared?
If they decide to do Kane/Punk vs In Crowd, followed by Kane vs Big Show or Kane vs Punk...then I can see some title changes occurring. Punk clearly isn't being groomed to cash in that Money in the Bank case with the way he's been losing so much lately and not being put in any feuds, so they might be ready to have him lose it to someone that they want to use it (Morrison, maybe, as they seem to want him to move up...maybe Hardy as he was supposed to win it in the first place) but to capitalize on how Punk is still somewhat popular, he could very well be a tag team champion. Kane has proven himself a bad choice - contrary to what we all believed - for ECW champion, so they might want him to just drop it and be a tag champ for his efforts.
Now, one problem with having Punk win the ECW title or tag team titles is that it keeps him on Smackdown/ECW, while we've heard rumors that they want him to move over to Raw. However, what purpose would he have over on Raw if he isn't groomed for the main event? IC title maybe? There's also the problem that this would have been the THIRD tag team champions with those titles that are mismatched at first and are in the midst of a feud. Hardy/MVP, Morrison/Miz, then Kane/Punk. Thankfully, the middle grouping became the best current tag team in the WWE instead of continuing the split angle. Last year we also had HBK/Cena, and we currently seem to have Rhodes/Holly having some trouble. Overkill!
Thusly, what I'd like to see...but I don't necessarily see happening 100%...is for Kane and Punk to win the tag titles. Later on that night, Kane retains. Morrison defeats Punk for the briefcase. Kane loses the ECW title to someone who could have better feuds and run with it in a more entertaining way (depending on who gets drafted to Smackdown or ECW, but I wouldn't mind someone like Jeff Hardy holding it). That gives Kane and Punk something to hold onto, Morrison gets to move up to the main event, Miz gets to have a solid feud with Matt Hardy for the US title (as he's clearly a solid midcarder now), and ECW gets a better champion. All in all, that leaves Big Show out in the cold, but he could stay on Smackdown's main event scene for a while.