When Hogan started to wind down in 1993, the WWF decided to force Luger into his spot, despite the fact that former world champion Bret had the stronger fan support (Luger ultimately had to bow his head and present Bret with the "Superstar of the Year" award, which I suspect was then a legit fan vote). Seems eerily close to what's going on now, with Reigns being shifted into Cena's role and the company keeping an oppressive boot on former champ Bryan. There are also striking similarities between Luger and Reigns (big ex-football guys who look great but can't talk or wrestle particularly well), and Bret and Bryan (great smaller wrestlers who don't seem to be charismatic enough in WWE's eyes).
By the spring of 1994, the WWF acquiesced and finally went with Bret over Luger. Personally, I expect the same with Bryan and Reigns. I just do not see it with Reigns: he looks good but his in-ring work is OK-at-best, and his promos range from by-the-numbers robotic to downright embarrassing. I'm not hearing the crowd support either. Some audiences have more screaming soccer moms than others, but overall there's a lack of reaction to Reigns's shtick, both in and out of the ring. To me, at least, "face of the company" is the last thing I think of when I see this guy on TV.
What's your take on it? Will Reigns go on to be a major success, or will he find himself back in the mid card like Luger did?
They are similar but not in the way that you think.
First, Lex was groomed for YEARS to be the #1 guy, Luger was basically being groomed for SuperStardom since 1987 and had already main evented some huge shows against veritable legends of wrestling. Brett Hart meanwhile had a nice progression from tag team guy to reliable mid carder and was thrust into the main event scene almost by default due a unusual set of circumstances. Brett hadn't been groomed for years and wasn't headlining major shows against big time stars for years, he was doing it for months, after a modest two year run in the mid card.
Worse yet, business was fading with Brett on top - I suppose you can say the same thing now regarding Lesnar but WWE knew what it was getting with Lesnar and his Part Timer's Guest SPot Schedule, at least his PPV matches vs Cena drew good numbers for the company (although it's debatable if they were any better than Cena would have drawn vs anyone else). Today we know Lesnar isn't and never was a long term solution, he was a short term project, a bridge, a transitional champion at best. Hart, despite not being groomed for the big spot, was handed the ball and asked to run with it for months. If business had been better it never would have been taken from him. Not many similarities here.
Reigns also doesn't compare to Luger - Reigns has had an extremely short time as top tier star, not 6 years of main event building and prime matches like Luger. Almost no similarities here.
The one area that is similar is the "Push" itself. Luger debuted in early 93 playing off his success in 1992 as the arrogaunt, self absorbed "Total Package" heel character and upped it a notch with his "Narcissist" persona. He was immediately over as a mega heel and fans genuinely seemed to dislike him from the start. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he suddenly gets this patriotic urge to defend US Pride and opposes Yokozuna, suddently embracing the fans, humility, and becoming, well, a more well known version of Brett Hart really, a boring, squeaky clean good guy - It made no sense, it was horribly scripted, way to abrupt, and the "forced" nature of it didn't please fans.
Reigns meanwhile was the assassin like muscle of the top heel group in the company, maybe the best heel group since Evolution was at its peak. Then for no real reason with fans booing them on cue and inferred alliance with Paul Heyman and heel champion CM Punk they suddenly start caring about other wrestlers, following the rules, and start feuding with a reformed Evolution. Early on, fans were cheering EVOLUTION as much if not more than Reigns & The Shield, it was too forced and didn't make a lot of sense, finally Evolution got The Shield over as fan faves (though Seth Rollins and Dean Ambrose had a lot to do with that) and out of nowhere Reigns is anointed the second coming just like that. Again, too quick, too forced, and fans didn't (at least not yet) react the way WWE wanted.
Luger was clearly way more seasoned and experienced than Reigns and was better known and a bigger commodity than Hart as champion - there are no real similarities here.
However, the nonsensical idiotic way WWE shortcircuited their storylines and wrote them so poorly to facilitate their big "Hero Push" makes a lot of sense in terms of being similar (and poorly done).
Now, over time that may change - WWE isn't always known for patience - They refused to admit the problem money wise was the product as a whole and not all on Hart so they continually looked for someone to replace him as #1 star, then invariably always came back to him because even if the money wasn't great it was consistent and guaranteed, and even if some older fans thought he was boring and his character wads dull kids loved him and bought his merchandise (the real similarity in this story is between Brett Hart & John Cena). I doubt WWE will have any more patience with Reigns if things don't click early on.