They're not that intelligent. They realized Cena would be losing to Lesnar three times in a row with no chance at redemption because Brock is almost assuredly leaving after Mania. They'll let Orton or Show or even Rollins take the loss at the Rumble so Lesnar can put over Reigns at Mania.
Probably Orton Vs Lesnar. Considering Show and Rollins are both heels. I can see Rollins screwing Orton over though.