Will The Dark Knight Rises Gross More Than The Dark Knight?

[Dave]

We all know how successful The Dark Knight was. The 2008 box office smash grossed over $1 billion and was shot on a budget of, reportedly, $180 million. It went on to secure a posthumous oscar for Heath Ledger in his role as the Joker and become the 10th highest grossing film in the history of movies. With that being said, the third instalment of Christopher Nolan's Batman series has a great deal to live up to.

However, this thread is not dedicated to talking to how good the Dark Knight Rises will be, or how good the Dark Knight of 2008 was. In fact, as we all know, quality sometimes doesn't equal box office success.

The Dark Knight had a lot of help in getting to $1 billion in overall gross. In fact, I remember reading that it was actually re-released to ensure that it got to that massive milestone. But nevertheless, a lot of factors pushed The Dark Knight to that success. Notably, of course, the death of Heath Ledger. Ledger's death, as many will testify to, added a very new and real dimension to this film. It was no longer a piece of film that people could take or leave. It was the last remnants of a promising movie career that was snatched from us. Ledger was creating his own place in Hollywood history and his untimely death definitely added something more grounded and dark to the picture.

Fortunately, no one has yet died on the set of The Dark Knight Rises. However, with it being the very highly anticipated end of Nolan's Batman series, my question is a simple one:

Will The Dark Knight Rises reach the magical $1 billion mark and overtake The Dark Knight as the 10th highest grossing movie of all time

Really, I'm leaning towards saying no. Yes, it is the last in the series and it does have a lot of followers that will mean that this movie blasts well beyond $500 million and possibly more. However, on the back of all the hype that surrounds The Dark Knight Rises, I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people at the end of the movie. The Dark Knight captured lightning in a bottle and it remains to be seen if Nolan can do that again. With a huge cast that will undoubtedly bring in the fans of the series and more, I think we are going to find it to be a very close-run race.

At the end of the day though, I don't see it toppling The Dark Knight. I don't think it has that magic. Unless Nolan pulls this movie out of the bag and absolutely smashes it out of the park, I think it will settle around the $800-$850 million mark.

Do you agree? Or do you think I am way off?

 

[Mitch Henessey]

The Dark Knight captured lightning in a bottle and it remains to be seen if Nolan can do that again.

This is one of the main problems I always think about, when I consider the potential box office success of The Dark Knight Rises. Yeah, the insane amount of hype is definitely there. Fans are already obsessed with Anne Hathaway's Catwoman costume, and a lot of people are drooling over various rumors about the story. But The Dark Knight was a phenomenon. This film dominated the box office in 2008, this film did receive tons of praise, and The Dark Knight was placed on a high pedestal. I think a lot of people already knew The Dark Knight would be a successful film, because Batman Begins was able to raise a lot of interest, but The Dark Knight quickly transformed into this worldwide phenomenon, and I don't think anybody saw this coming. The Dark Knight Rises will have to live up to some pretty big expectations, and I don't know if this film can recreate that same spark.

Batman Begins breathed some new life into the Batman franchise, and this made everyone forget about the awful piece of shit that was Batman & Robin (1997). The Dar Knight received tons of praise early on, and this film became a great success. The Dark Knight was a tremendous box office hit, and this film did have a good amount of hype surrounding it. Also, Dave makes a great point about Ledger's death. Heath Ledger's death did give this film a huge boost, because moviegoers wanted to see the last great performance of the promising career that could've been.

It's kind of a tricky question to answer, but I do think The Dark Knight Rises will surpass The Dark Knight on the all time list. Moviegoers will want to watch this film, and they will flood theaters in large numbers. This film will have the luxury of the momentum The Dark Knight provided, and a lot of people will be anxious to see this film. As I said before, the Batman franchise has life again, because Nolan has resurrected this film series, and Batman is one of the more recognizable and popular comic book superheros. In a way, Batman is an instant draw, and The Caped Crusader does have a nice sized fanbase. Also, this film won't have a lot of strong competition next year. When you stop and think about it, The Avengers is really the only film that could possibly challenge The Dark Knight Rises in 2012 as the king of summer blockbusters at the box office. Also, the IMAX showings should give the box office numbers a nice boost.

The Dark Knight Rises might not provide that satisfying conclusion we're all looking for, but this film will be a tremendous box office success. Everyone knows this will be Nolan's last Batman film, and the franchise could take a long hiatus after this film. Everyone will be anxious to see the conclusion for this series, and this might be the last chance to see the Batman franchise in all its glory, because we all know Batman will receive a reboot someday, and there's always a chance the new films could disappoint.

Large amounts of moviegoers will pay their money for this film, and The Dark Knight Rises will be the easiest sale next summer, because I doubt too many people will have the "Well, I just wait for the DVD (or Blu-Ray)" mentality.

 

[Dagger Dias]

It is actually very possible that The Dark Knight Rises will make more money than The Dark Knight. The thing you have to remember about movies making a lot of money is that the amount of money a movie makes does not represent the quality of the film. Avatar has the highest profit of all time in movies. Is it the BEST film of all time? No. It was awesome and just happened to become the most financially successful, but it was hardly the best.

Often if a movie does well then the sequel will have good odds of making similar amounts of money. The Dark Knight did amazing and the new film gets to ride the momentum of its prequel to generate a ton of money from the opening weekend alone. If it doesn't quite beat The Dark Knight it will surely come close. I highly doubt the film will be as good but it will definitely be a financial success because people will be extremely interested in it to find out what happens next following the events of a phenominal film like The Dark Knight.

 

[Launch Pad Mac - Quack!]

Is it important if it is successful at the box office??? No. but what is important is that it is good - Is Darknight the best batman movie? No! {The Mask Of Phantasm} but it is a damn good movie and Box office or not it wouldn't have change that. Nolan shouldn't be concerned with surpassing Darknight and instead be concerned with doing a solid job with his 3rd adventure in Gotham. I believe friend, that you put to much importantance upon the box office when that is the least important thing {from a non business stand point}.

 

[jacdnwarrior]

When I saw Batman Begins, I loved the film and was happy that the film actually did justice to the Batman franchise. I hadn't heard of Nolan before this film, but I was very impressed with the job he did iwht the film. I wasn't really overwhelmed with Bale as Batman. He's good as Bruce Wayne, but his voice when he's the Batman really is pretty weak. The cast was great and the story was very solid.

Before The Dark Knight came out, I had heard about Ledger being cast as the Joker, I was very skeptical. What this film had going for it, was the fact that the first film was so good, that it increased my desire to see the Dark Knight. When I saw the film, I was amazed by what I saw. To be fair, Heath Ledger steals the movie. His performance is the reason to see this film. The Dark Knight sets the bar very high. I hope that Nolan will be able to match that success. I won't bet against Nolan, he has surpassed expections. I think he'll come close but fall short, I could be wrong and hope that I'm wrong. Warner Bros will promote the hell out of it, they'll create interest with various behind the scene photos, etc.

 

[George Steele's Barber]

I don't know the answer. My first question is what is going to be the price of a movie ticket in 2012? What was the price in 2008? I assume distribution will be the same if not a little bit bigger. If these factors can make up for the lost Ledger hype and quality (assuming this movie is worse than Dark Knight) then it should gross more.

Tangent: For me I don't understand why I pay the same amount for A Dolphin's Tale and The Dark Knight. Isn't it in the studios best interest to get as many dollars out of people as possible? I would pay more to see Rises. Plus, isn't it in the theater's best interest to get as many people in as possible (to sell concessions)? Tangent over.

My concern with the film is that Bale's Batman is not as interesting anymore. That his story is over and we are going to need the villians to carry the film. I am not sure if Bane and Catwoman have this ability.

Another problem, will the movie and the end compel the nerdiest of the nerds to but multiple tickets? Dark Knight did this, it is one of the most re-watchable movies of all time. Inception did this as well. So much was happening on screen that it is understandable that people need to see it again.

Gun to my head, even though the lack of hype may hurt the gross, I am going to assume that ticket prices will increase enough, distribution will be big enough and have faith in Nolan to say this movie will gross more.