I vote JBL.
I may prefer Stevie, I'm not quite sure... I know that during JBL's heel champion run I loved him more than I've ever loved Stevie, and since we are taking primes I guess that means I prefer JBL.
Regardless, we are voting for realism as if this were a real tournament, so here is what happens. JBL, bonafide main eventer, has been known to go out to upsets for sure. However, in a tournament like this, it simply does not make sense booking wise for him to be upset at this stage. There is no future PPV card in which he can be booked against Stevie in a revenge match, he would just be done. Gone. Undoubtedly JBL is the bigger draw than Stevie, as such there is NO way he doesn't go through.
Finally, kayfabe. Stevie shines at great showings where he almost convinces you he can win before he loses. JBL shines at poor showings where he almost convinces you he can lose before winning. That is EXACTLY what happens here. This is a 5 minute match so I'll book it below, tell me this doesn't look likely.
Lock up, JBL throws him away. Smug. Lock up, wrestling by Stevie, grounds JBL. JBL is angry, gets to feet, charges in, drop toe hold to some ground offense, JBL gets to feet, caught again, more offense. JBL gets a big boot, goes for a grapple move, gets reversed, Stevie offense. Near falls on JBL. Goes for finisher, reversed, clothesline from hell, reversed, Stevie hits finisher, nearfall. Goes for it again, misses, clothesline from hell, uno dos tres.
Srs, that's how this match goes. JBL moves on.