WWE Stock taking a massive nose dive

According to a report this morning from the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, the numbers released for WWE Network subscribers is what's ultimately led to the company's stock taking a hit last week. According to the report, the 667,287 wasn't considered great, but it is considered workable and that the investment community is expecting more growth over the years. The idea is that whatever number was announced would multiply by about 3 or 4 within a couple of years and that anything under 650,000 wouldn't be thought of as good. So while the number isn't thought of as a failure, it's below what they were expecting.

So IF the network subscribers increase by 3 or 4 times the released number, which the investment community seems to think, which I'm also guessing is simply based on domestic numbers alone, that'd range from just slightly more than 2,000,000 to roughly 2,700,000. Again, if those projections are accurate then, domestically, that'd come out somewhere in the neighborhood of $240,000,00 to $320,000,000 that goes in WWE's pockets without a cut of it going to the cable or satellite providers.

Right now, even though the market's opening bell went off a little over 40 minutes ago, WWE's stock is up slightly right now to $20.45 per share. While that's only a $0.16 increase over what it closed at Friday, it's still a gain.
 
I disagree with some fans where they think this network will never go on cable
I think once it reaches 1.5 mill certain networks will reach out to WWE
Once they release this network internationally then we will see some really good numbers
Forget about UK I think in France and Germany you could see numbers sky rocket especially in Germany
This network has so much promise but in years past we have had some interesting concepts by VKM and they haven't panned out
If Vince was to put his ego to one side this network could be the greatest thing created in wrestling since WM even though WM was a copied version of Starrcade but thats another topic
I don't think we will see movies or purchased tv shows on this network until it gets moved to cable
I also think when this network gets over 2 mill subscibers WWE may go to PG-13 seeing they will have more leverage towards sponsors
 
All this worrying about stocks and at the end of the day, the WWE is not worried and expects more subscribers. They are still only domestic and haven't reached international status yet. Patience. Rome wasn't built in a day.

I disagree with some fans where they think this network will never go on cable

Why would the WWE Network go to cable? Cable is going to be a thing of the past.
 
It was a bad number compared to the market's expectations. The stock also appeared to get inflated by the AMC and other buyout rumors that appear to be nowhere now. The stock is still much higher than where it wallowed for a long time. 1 million is still likely. The market doesn't love that but WWE was fine before and continues to be fine.

<<GSB inserts a dig at TNA here>>
 
I am not a tech guy so I am kind of new to the streaming thing I believe ESPN started that a few years ago debuting ESPN3
With me being a third tier shareholder with Comcast I do know as much as 33% of their markets as a tryout phase beginning next year will have all of their cable streamlined
Unfortunately with the market its expectations of tomorrow with rumor of yesterday and a quick photo of what you are doing today
Market always is too quick with something new and too slow with something old thats trying to be new
The cable reference I always thought that was the end game for this network
You can have both
Just WWE can continue to hold out for the right deal as each 100,000 subscribers they add is more in favor for WWE
 
There are several reasons this has happened and why the Network numbers are "disappointing".

Let's look at it coldly...

Storyline/Product/Backstage - WWE has just ended one of the worst cycles of it's history. Not in terms of quality necessarily but in terms of blatantly ignoring the wishes of the fans, both casual and IWC. As well as it may have turned out, the fans wanted Bryan to be "the man" a lot sooner... WWE railed against it and did EVERYTHING in it's power to try and avoid it. The fans clearly did not want Batista in the role he was in but they forged ahead. The fans didn't want to see endless non finishes to PPV's but the E did so for several months. All these has a knock on effect and many fans may have simply "not bothered" with Mania as they didn't trust WWE to deliver what they wanted in the show. Most businesses can't afford to piss their fanbase off for 7 months and expect the shareprice to be strong cos they finally "gave in".

WWE didn't push Mania hard until just a month before, and even then most of it came together last minute. There was no real "MUST SEE" match this year, no member of the HOF class who REALLY stood out and even Austin's appearance was thrown in at the last minute. A properly built Mania, with better booking would have sold more subscriptions. Had Randy Savage AND Warrior been going into the HOF that would have... it's not a knock on Warrior or Jake but they weren't the draw for that show that even Bruno was a year before.

Add to that that WWE had let one of their most popular talents simply walk out of the company, again alienating a large amount of fans. They haven't addressed it by saying he's gone, or that it's a work etc... they let many fans think he would show up at Mania or just before and he didn't... another let down. Letting any major player go in Mania season, by oversight (as I expect, he never got contracted time off during his deal so he had to "take it or lose it") or design is plain bad business. Vince should have literally offered Punk what he wanted, not out of desperation but just to deliver the best show he could. He could always make it a short term deal or pull the Bret Hart stroke again... it didn't hurt him last time. But Punk's ansence created an elephant in the room over Mania season that fed hate for Batista and forced them into Bryan's corner...but even that win wasn't as "epic" as it could have been... it needed longer build, it needed him booked in it from the start... it needed perhaps him to win the Rumble only for Trips to move the goalposts... It mattered.

Taker's streak ending was poorly handled but not just cos the match was bad... everything leading up to it was off but most importantly Taker was... he didn't look good in the build up, didn't look like the Phenom and frankly it needed to be Sting he was facing...

Hogan's return wasn't the draw they hoped...it never could be, his stock was damaged by TNA, Bubba and all the other crap associated with him in the last 3 years. Austin's refusal to commit until the last moment was telling, Rock's surprise even more so... they were clearly VERY worried in the week before Mania and finally pulled out all the stops, rather than just getting everything set up for the Network launch and selling it on a Mega WrestleMania card.

All these point to a TV product that is not being written to be the best TV product it can be but to satisfy the classic "audience of McMahons", for a private company that's fine... for a public one that doesn't wash, it's the best product at all times or you're not making as much as you can out of it... and that is the cardinal sin if you have shareholders.

Business - The Network is not "The Emperors New Clothes" but it's not the "revolution" of the business they sold either. At the minute it's somewhere in between being "a new place to watch WWE" and a white elephant. Not rolling out globally for example sends a poor message, the large numbers of complaints over glitches, all these erode trust.

If the fans don't trust WWE right now what of their talent? STILL there has been no official word on what happens to the talent's "bottom line" now PPV bonuses and residuals are gone. Is WWE going for the old days again of no more "guarantees" just downsides and you work every day to earn over that? Will only the select few get guaranteed money now? It's an issue beacuse the one thing WWE cannot afford is a mass revolt from talent. Many have tried unionising and Vince always killed it but he couldn't replace EVERY one of his talents... Baseball strikes, Football strokes, Hockey strikes... if enough of the lower guys got pissed off, those above would have a hard time not joining them...after all what would "Hustle, Loyalty and Respect" be worth if Cena was a scab? These kind of things will concern knowledgeable investors.

Sky's new deal is a bad move for WWE in the UK, it WILL lose them money here because people won't pay for the "B PPV's". The only way the UK PPV system worked was we got some "free" as part of the Sky Package... taking those away means 13 times a year we're expected to pay $30 to take a morning off work and watch live or have to avoid all spoilers and internet for the day... when they are already swapping talent out during the tours and giving us B-shows... it's a bum deal which could backfire as they have at least 2 British talents they are looking to push in Barrett and Neville. While the UK won't necessarily directly affect the share price, many UK investors with US portfolios may see it as short sighted or a lack of international focus for others.
Controversy - This past week has produced a large amount of it, not necesarily through WWE's fault... but first Taker's loss/injury was clearly not handled right from a business/risk management perspective. All WWE's health protocols publically went out the window by not having Taker checked at ringside. Gimmick/respect or no...this is the same WWE that legit stopped a Bryan match just months ago and has kept several competitors out of action. Allowing the match to go on without being checked, while saving the "character" and spectacle could well have scared some investors once the story came out... The uneducated casual investor might think "Hey, didn't they drop someone from a roof once too? SELL!"

Add to that the Warrior situation... it's tragic, unfortunate and most of all unhelpful. Warrior was clearly not in shape to be shaking ropes... a casual look at him during the promo and the later news would lead most to that conclusion. Then all the controversy with Nancy Grace etc... the bad news for WWE is the kind of people who listen to Nancy Grace are the kind of people with WWE stock perhaps in their portfolio's, not as a major part but enough that when something kicks up and they hear "steroids and drugs", true or not they will bail on the stock.


All this is not negative - there are a lot of positve in recent WWE. The Network IS viable with some tweaking and a more robust programming schedule. The TV deal is not gonna hit the Billion they wanted but it can still fund a hell of a lot of growth in talent, which is clearly past the "green shoots" stage now and the "fate" of Taker's injury may force WWE into new directions sooner rather than later.

If the share price tanks, it's bad for Vince personally... but he is still angling for his buy out... he still wants House of Mouse to come in... he wants the stock as high as possible so he can cash out higher, but if it drops a bit and it makes it more attractive for Disney to buy as a result... he won't cry tears for long.
 
So the report of WM is out with a combined of WWEN and PPV's bought have reached 1 mill
This number is highly flawed
Its a great number but clearly how many subscribers will stay on seeing they basically got WM for $10
I disagree with Laura Martin with Forbes
She is a very very smart business woman but she believes this stock by the end of the year will reach $30
It solely depends on the upcoming tv deal that most likely will be with NBCU
The % of cost vs revenue must drop significantly seeing thats the most concerning # investors have
I also believe WWE must increase their buying $ for the success of WWE Studios
The old addage in biz is to make money you must spend money
Clearly WWE doesn't have enough capital to fully invest in tv or movie projects for their non-wrestling revenue
The # for the Network subscribers at the end of the year just for US isn't 1 mill anymore because of the missed target it has to be around 1.3-1.5 to make up for the first round of dismal numbers
 
Personally, as someone who owns WWE stock, I'm okay with the stock plummeting. I bought a few shares a while back when the stock was dirt cheap. But since I had other priorities, I could only buy a little bit at a time, and not enough to make any real profit once the stock made that huge spike. I'm hoping it comes down to a point where I can feel more comfortable buying more and hopefully it goes up again afterwards.
 

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