This is one of those matches where I could make arguments either way, and have absolutely no idea as to what will happen. Despite this being (technically)the fifth PPV bout in a row that the two have wrestled together in, I'm very much looking forward to this match, more than any on the show.
Part of me feels that having HBK referee this match will overshadow Orton and Bryan. If they hadn't done the rediculous Scott Armstrong angle, a regular referee would have done just fine. Now, they almost backed themselves into a corner into having to have a Special Referee, so as to avoid bias? However, this vote, with Bob Backlund and Booker T as the other two candidates, was obviously set up so that fans would vote for Shawn. And despite his promises that he'll separate the 'personal from the professional', his history with the three men who are involved here make it seem he'll be anything but. And perhaps he will, and that will be the hook. No one really expects him to be a completely impartial referee, mostly because he never has, and that's exactly what he'll do. If he does so, it taints the victory, and there's no way for Bryan or Orton to give HBK his comeuppance, as he's retired. So I believe he'll call it down the middle.
Which leaves the door open for Randy Orton to win. Between Orton's multiple punts to HBK's head and attempts to end his career, one would think HBK couldn't possibly be impartial. But if he is, the sadistic side that Stephanie demanded Orton bring back, which he has, may be enough for him to win inside the Cell. They've made a point of making Orton seem as aggressive and almost as ruthless as he has in the past, which should theoretically lend perfectly to Hell In A Cell. Orton also has "experience" inside the Cell, something Bryan doesn't, which should also be in his favor. He's won two, lost two, so he's hardly performed poorly either.
As for Bryan, this would be the perfect feel-good moment to end this feud. Very few times in wrestling recently has a wrestler been put through so much, and has had as many highs and lows as Bryan has. This resiliency has lead to Bryan being able to win the title then get cashed in on, win the title and stripped the next day. A lesser wrestler, in theory, wouldn't still be fighting, but Bryan had Orton in the center of the ring before Big Show charged the ring and ended the match. He's beaten Orton time and again, and in a No Holds Barred match as well, so the cell shouldn't be too bothersome to him. Further, the Cell should allow for more ways for Bryan to hook submission moves, and more painfully as well.
There's a large part of me that believes that the winner here holds the title through Wrestlemania, which indicates Orton to me. The cynical part of me thinks that HHH and Stephanie truly don't see Bryan as "face of the company", and theyre not just playing a bit. Further, there's a part of me that sees Vince and co. that believe it when they have Orton tell Brie that "This is what a real man looks like."
On the other hand, Bryan is the most over wrestler WWE has had in some time. Booked the right way, he has the chance to be a strong #2 to Cena's #1. But in order to make that work, he needs to come out of this feud with the "anointed" face of the company as the WWE Champion. Bryan has gotten himself over with every opportunity he's been given, and to not go all the way here with him would be a mistake.
I could go either way here, but I'm leaning towards Bryan. They've invested so much time into rallying fans behind him, and for him to lose this feud, unlike for Randy Orton, could be catastrophic.