Who Will Win 2012's AL Cy Young Award?

[Harthan]

ESPN just posted a brief article on who some of their writers thought would be the American League's Cy Young Award winner in 2012. I thought it might be fun to do the same thing here. Here are my top 5 candidates, presented in reverse order of where I think they might land in voting, along with some projected 2012 numbers generated by a composite of lots of popular projection systems.


5. Dan Haren - 222 IP, 15 W, 10 L, 3.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 187 K

Haren overachieved in 2011 and I think he's due for a bit of a regression, based on elevated LOB% and a low BABIP. While Haren does have a low career BABIP, he's not the fastball pitcher he used to be and I expect an averageish BABIP out of him this year. Haren lives off his sinker and cutter these days, which is fine, just that it means barring exceptional circumstances he won't be limiting his BABIP to the sub .300 levels on his own talent. That said, when regression toward the mean gives you these kinds of numbers, you're not in bad shape. Should be a good year for Haren pitching behind Weaver.

4. CC Sabathia - 224 IP, 18 W, 8 L, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 200K

Personally the man I would have voted for #1 in 2011 (I'll wait for Megatron to call me out on that one), CC is an interesting case. He had a severely elevated LOB% over league average, but CC has a career LOB% that's well over average, so I don't expect that to bite him too much. The same thing goes for HR/FB ratio - above league average, but so is his career rate. That said I do expect slight regression for CC who should still be one hell of a pitcher. I believe he will be neck and neck with Verlander for the wins leader for the AL and will be a workhorse for the Yankees.

3. Jered Weaver - 219 IP, 16 W, 9 L, 3.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 193 K

Weaver's in for a bit of regression, sure, but not as much as you'd think. He had a highly elevated LOB%, but it isn't radically higher than his career number, so that won't hurt him as much as it would others. The same is true for HR/FB, and his BABIP was very low, but he is a fastball pitcher so the same holds true here. Still, he will probably regress from 2011's numbers. But, much like Haren, when regression gives you these numbers, I wouldn't be complaining. Weaver's going to be a hell of a #1 guy for LA and they should cherish that.

2. Felix Hernandez - 220 IP, 16 W, 8 L, 2.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K

The only guy on the list with a real start in 2012, and damn he looked good during it. Felix underperformed his career LOB% in 2011, and had average BABIP and HR/FB. Those are some pretty sexy words that go to the tune of improvement rather than regression. Tentatively my ERA winner for 2012 and knocking at the door of the K leader, there's a lot to like about King Felix in 2012. If his changeup is still as ridiculously impressive as it was in 2011 he's going to be making noise big time in the AL. If only he played for a team that could give him any real offense.

1. Justin Verlander - 227 IP, 18 W, 8 L, 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 224 K

I've written a good bit about Verlander's expected regression, so I won't go into gory details here. He had a stupid low BABIP in 2011, but he has a low career rate so I don't expect it to go quite to like, .300. Verlander is still the best pitcher in the AL. One thing I find really remarkable about Verlander is that he doesn't throw a bad pitch, which is really neat. Almost everyone else on this list has at least one shitty pitch, but Verlander doesn't. That's part of the reason Verlander will still dominate in 2011 and probably repeat as the Cy Young winner, but I wouldn't expect an MVP repeat (which was, by the way, ridiculous. Ellsbury, Bautista, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Cabrera were all more valuable. Do take note that I don't believe that a pitcher can't be MVP, just that Verlander wasn't.) Verlander will probably be strikeout king again and it actually wouldn't be a huge stretch for him to be the wins leader and repeat as ERA winner again, potentially giving him a repeat triple crown.

So, there you have it. These are safe predictions, of course. Someone will inevitably defy the odds, have deviant peripherals and make a go at it. I also wouldn't count out the possibility of Mariano Rivera garnering votes he probably won't deserve in the event that he retires. I don't believe a relief pitcher should ever win the Cy Young award, myself, but I dunno, maybe you disagree. If I were asked to name the next five it'd probably be Matt Moore, David Price, Brandon McCarthy, and Yu Darvish, so I'll keep my eyes open on those gentlemen.

If people like this I'll probably do one for NL Cy Young in a little bit and MVPs soon too.

 

[agentmichaelscarn]

1. Justin Verlander - 227 IP, 18 W, 8 L, 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 224 K

I've written a good bit about Verlander's expected regression, so I won't go into gory details here. He had a stupid low BABIP in 2011, but he has a low career rate so I don't expect it to go quite to like, .300. Verlander is still the best pitcher in the AL. One thing I find really remarkable about Verlander is that he doesn't throw a bad pitch, which is really neat. Almost everyone else on this list has at least one shitty pitch, but Verlander doesn't. That's part of the reason Verlander will still dominate in 2011 and probably repeat as the Cy Young winner, but I wouldn't expect an MVP repeat (which was, by the way, ridiculous. Ellsbury, Bautista, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Cabrera were all more valuable. Do take note that I don't believe that a pitcher can't be MVP, just that Verlander wasn't.) Verlander will probably be strikeout king again and it actually wouldn't be a huge stretch for him to be the wins leader and repeat as ERA winner again, potentially giving him a repeat triple crown.

I fully expect Verlander to regress but I think people put way too much stock in BABIP. BABIP is telling but it has different impacts on different pitchers. In Verlander's case he allows so few balls to be put in play(relatively speaking) because he K's so much that a BABIP increase for him won't be as big of deal for a groundball heavy low K kinda guy. In 2009 he had a BABIP over .300 but had an ERA well below 3 for the last 5 months of the season(got off to a disastrous start), so he's proven that he can succeed with a high BABIP.

But where I expect him to regress the most is his LOB%. Last year his LOB% was about 10% higher than his career norms, he just stranded so many runners. That number is bound to go down which will lead to more runs and obviously a higher ERA. His HR rate was higher than usual so maybe that will go down which will help him but he is bound to regress simply because very few pitchers in history could sustain the type of season he had last year.

So anyway if I had to pick my vote would go to David Price. Besides the fact that he has great stuff and plays in front of a great defense I really have no other reason for picking him other than a hunch. It seems like every year in the AL lately there has been a talented pitcher that was a bit under the radar before the season and ended up having a monster year and winning the Cy(Lee, Greinke, Felix, Verlander) and I think Price is going to be that guy this year.

 

[Megatron]

4. CC Sabathia - 224 IP, 18 W, 8 L, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 200K

Personally the man I would have voted for #1 in 2011 (I'll wait for Megatron to call me out on that one),

Funny guy, you are. Verlander had a much lower WHIP, either equal or much higher WAR (depending if you use Fangraphs or BR), less H/9, higher K/9, a lower ERA (even if his FIP was slightly higher) and a much higher ERA+. But do tell, I need a good laugh.

As for my list, I'd love Verlander to be even close to what he was last year, but I think this is Felix's to lose. I don't really feel like going into great detail since Harthan covered most of the guys I'd consider, but Felix is hitting his prime and I think it'll be him and JV neck and neck for most of the year. Wins shouldn't determine who wins this award and really hasn't (Greinke and Felix years) lately.

1. Felix
2. JV
3. Dan Haren
4. CC
5. Jon Lester