I think Tarver is gone first. He has basically done nothing, and I am not saying that is his fault. For all we know, he's the second coming of Bret Hart (no, he's not, I'm just using hyperbole). But he hasn't done much, actually nothing. So I don't think it would be worth anyone's time at this point in the game, to keep him around. Plus, as someone stated earlier, Carlito has basically moved into jobber territory, so they aren't doing Tarver any favors by having Carlito showcased more than Tarver.
Daniel Bryan is certainly an option. But I'm not sure they want to get him off of that show just yet. He and Miz are having a pretty good feud, and to take away maybe the most entertaining thing they have going on over there wouldn't be a good idea. I see him losing NXT somehow, and then appearing on Raw anyway, to feud with Miz. And while I see this happening, I don't see it happening yet. I think it will happen more toward the end of this season of NXT. I think they see Danielson as superior to the other rookies, and he doesn't need NXT to get over.
I think people put too much stock into win/loss records in pro wrestling now-a-days, especially WWE's creative department. It's scripted. It's not a REAL competition. For wins and losses to matter, it would have to be a real competition. To crown the winner of NXT based on win/loss record would just be stupid and boring. Let's have some interesting, entertaining storylines. This isn't a REAL sport. It's sports entertainment.