I would hesitate to describe Pettitte as an "All-Star pitcher" in 2012.
That's funny. He was on the All Star Team in 2010, and twice prior in his career. I'm pretty sure that would make him an All Star.
The problem for me is that his 3.28 ERA in 2010 is a big deviation from the mean - his average ERA hadn't been under 4 for the last 4 years preceding that. While BABIP was average, and his HR/9 was actually slightly under his career average, his LOB% went up dramatically; taken in conjunction with a K/9 improvement I would suspect that he's in for regression. Fangraphs is oddly lacking in data for his slider in 2010, which was his most deadly weapon, but judging by heat maps and my gut I'd say that K/9 rate was linked to being really on point with that slider in 2010 which. Now 40 and a full season from pitching, I really worry about whether he can have that same success again. I would also note that PITCHF/x suggests his cutter and curveball were better than average in 2010, which I worry about a 40 year old repeating.
Do I expect him to be what he was in 2010? Of course not. That's unrealistic. He's older now (He'll be 40 in 2 months). But is he still an excellent starting pitcher? Yes. Was he still for all intents and purposes free for the Yankees? Yes.
So, all in all, I would expect an ERA for Pettitte of about 4.00 this year. Certainly not bad, and a definite improvement over what they've got at the back of the rotation. The only sure things in the Yankees rotation are Sabathia and Kuroda. They're the only guys who you know what you're getting out of. Spring training is strongly suggesting Pineda could use some time in the minors to round himself out - while his offspeed pitches are improving, his fastball velocity has fallen off significantly. No doubt he still has the stuff, he just needs to work it out. To me, though Pettitte should far outperform what I would expect Garcia or Hughes to pitch in 2012.
Honestly that's the likeliest of scenarios, Pineda going down to AAA for a while. He's not ready full-time for the big-leagues yet, if this spring is any indication.
And the Yankees only sure things in the rotation are Sabathia and Nova. Kuroda is ancient and never been in the AL East, Garcia is ancient and not expected to be where he was last year. CC is a legit Ace, and thus-far Hughes actually has looked like he'll bounce back to form this year.
No All-Star, but a quality guy that fits anywhere from 3-5 in the rotation (I would assume 3 or 4, depending on Pineda).
He'll be the 4 behind CC/Nova/Hughes by the time he is with the big club (remember it's a Minor League deal and he's not expected to join the club out of Spring Training since he missed significant time. I think Pineda will be down in AAA, or Garcia will be gone, depending on their performance.
I will say, though, that 2.5 million is damn good price for him, especially considering the leverage that he had after 2010
Hell, the leverage he had 3 months ago. He told Cashman he was thinking about it 3 months ago, but wanted 6 weeks to make sure. Cash offered like $10 million back in december (what he'd get on the open market), but Pettitte wanted to make sure he was in good enough shape. By that time, the Yankees made their moves and he decided that he'd come back for nothing.
further proof that Cashman, despite his absurd finances, is a very talented GM.
Thank you. You don't know how many times I have heard people say that he's terrible, and that anyone could be the GM. There's honestly very few GMs better right now. He seems to always end up getting the better end of trades, and he turned the farm system from a laughingstock to one of the better systems in the league.
