Think you have a handle on where professional wrestling is trending in the future? In three years, hopefully someone will remember and dredge up this thread, to see what was right and what was horribly wrong. Spout off with your predictions here- who you think will have won a world championship (or who people think will have that won't), which professional wrestling companies will develop in what manner, overarching trends for the business, what have you. If you think it'll happen in three years, list it here. (Three years is the timetable I'm choosing because I think that's the longest we could possibly hope anyone to remember.)
This is a non-spam thread. Provide a rationale for why you believe your prediction will happen.
Feel free to list your own kind of predictions. I'm focusing on business trends, because, well, that's what I'm good at. I'm curious to see people's future world champion predictions.
Cable pay-per-view will be dead- not just for the WWE, but for all companies. For the past several years, the WWE has been the only dominant force in professional wrestling pay-per-view, and the model for content delivery has changed drastically since TNA's weekly PPV's were effective. The WWE network provides a 'well duh' alternative to purchasing a pay-per-view: the thought of spending $10 'this month' with a renewing subscription, rather than $30-$60 'just once'. The big trend these days is getting people on subscription plans rather than selling them something once, and the WWE has the tape library to support a streaming internet channel. From the pay-per-view providers' point of view, the deal no longer makes sense- with the amount of buys they'll receive going down drastically, it will no longer become cost-effective for them to show the PPV. The long-term effect is that the 'big four' events will become draws that you 'can only see on the WWE network- subscribe now!'
This has knock on effects for other promotions. TNA (see next prediction) hasn't pulled in publishable PPV numbers in forever. Internet streaming will get better as technology improves (we'll find ways to keep stretching Moore's Law, always count on that), and the scalable costs of providing an internet stream over a cable PPV- along with cable TV's declining viewership- will render the cable TV PPV model obsolete for professional wrestling.
TNA won't be around. Sorry, TNA fans. People have been digging on your product forever, but I have never been one of the 'they'll go out of business next year' people. I have always been one of the 'wow, they need to look at how their investments have been paying off' people. Well, those chickens are coming home to roost, and instead of trimming the fat, they're trying to get the weight of the company down by pulling out muscle and bones.
TNA exists right now solely because of its television deal. That's the rationale for the business. The economics of the company are designed around providing a product purchased for television to sell advertising; they are not equipped to transform into a small non-television indy company. Performers continue to allow contracts to expire without renewing them, which is why we're looking at main eventers like Magnus, Eric Young, and MVP (who I actually like, but the highlight of his career was a great feud with Matt Hardy. C'mon.) Television programs almost never recover audiences they've lost. However, they very frequently try to reboot to try to reinvigorate interest.
There is the possibility that a smaller satellite/cable channel trying to get off the ground- think a Fox Sports Two, or something- could pick up TNA programming on a cheaper TV deal. Spike may be playing hardball in order to get TNA's asking price for their programming down. There is a certain minimum amount TNA has to receive for their programming to make this whole business thing worthwhile- if they don't get it, they fade. 80% confidence on this one.
ROH will ascend- slowly. The biggest beneficiary of TNA's slow-motion collapse will be Ring of Honor. They're very well equipped to take performers on a one-off basis without providing the kind of expectation that television fans are used to. (Imagine a WWE champion fighting four or five different people in a month for the belt.) They'll be able to pick and choose who they want to help build up their own cards and get people into their arenas. (Sorry, TDS- I like the product lately, but their current TV show looks very much like it was filmed in a high school gym. Maybe college, I swear to God I saw covered up banners in the rafters.)
They also have a) the immediate lesson of TNA's overinvestment to learn from, b) a product that does not quickly translate into what the larger part of the professional wrestling base has come to expect (there's a reason why people call TNA 'WWE-lite', and it's not a bad thing), and c) ownership by a company that also owns a shitpot distribution system that they'd like to promote. All three factors will act as a brake on growth, which is a Good Thing. ROH will have the opportunity to expand rapidly, and could end up in the ECW situation if they aren't careful- having a deal with a television network who insists on production changes which alter the reason why they bought into the product in the first place. Their ownership by Sinclair (however that's divided) will hold up any major changes until they either sell or are bought out; the whole rational for their ownership is providing content on their satellite network. This is all good, long-term, for ROH- they aren't a large company, and you don't become a large company overnight, no matter how much money pours into it. (People riding the app bubble pay no heed to that last sentence.)
There's a huge shakeup in the cable television world coming within the next few years- the factors which have caused the recent fights between cable companies and content providers haven't changed. People are still cord cutting and finding it harder and harder to justify $50-$80 a month for cable television. It's impossible to say if there will be room for a smaller professional wrestling on cable TV in the future- or if cable TV will still be a relevant distribution mechanism for a smaller professional wrestling company.
This is a non-spam thread. Provide a rationale for why you believe your prediction will happen.
Feel free to list your own kind of predictions. I'm focusing on business trends, because, well, that's what I'm good at. I'm curious to see people's future world champion predictions.
Cable pay-per-view will be dead- not just for the WWE, but for all companies. For the past several years, the WWE has been the only dominant force in professional wrestling pay-per-view, and the model for content delivery has changed drastically since TNA's weekly PPV's were effective. The WWE network provides a 'well duh' alternative to purchasing a pay-per-view: the thought of spending $10 'this month' with a renewing subscription, rather than $30-$60 'just once'. The big trend these days is getting people on subscription plans rather than selling them something once, and the WWE has the tape library to support a streaming internet channel. From the pay-per-view providers' point of view, the deal no longer makes sense- with the amount of buys they'll receive going down drastically, it will no longer become cost-effective for them to show the PPV. The long-term effect is that the 'big four' events will become draws that you 'can only see on the WWE network- subscribe now!'
This has knock on effects for other promotions. TNA (see next prediction) hasn't pulled in publishable PPV numbers in forever. Internet streaming will get better as technology improves (we'll find ways to keep stretching Moore's Law, always count on that), and the scalable costs of providing an internet stream over a cable PPV- along with cable TV's declining viewership- will render the cable TV PPV model obsolete for professional wrestling.
TNA won't be around. Sorry, TNA fans. People have been digging on your product forever, but I have never been one of the 'they'll go out of business next year' people. I have always been one of the 'wow, they need to look at how their investments have been paying off' people. Well, those chickens are coming home to roost, and instead of trimming the fat, they're trying to get the weight of the company down by pulling out muscle and bones.
TNA exists right now solely because of its television deal. That's the rationale for the business. The economics of the company are designed around providing a product purchased for television to sell advertising; they are not equipped to transform into a small non-television indy company. Performers continue to allow contracts to expire without renewing them, which is why we're looking at main eventers like Magnus, Eric Young, and MVP (who I actually like, but the highlight of his career was a great feud with Matt Hardy. C'mon.) Television programs almost never recover audiences they've lost. However, they very frequently try to reboot to try to reinvigorate interest.
There is the possibility that a smaller satellite/cable channel trying to get off the ground- think a Fox Sports Two, or something- could pick up TNA programming on a cheaper TV deal. Spike may be playing hardball in order to get TNA's asking price for their programming down. There is a certain minimum amount TNA has to receive for their programming to make this whole business thing worthwhile- if they don't get it, they fade. 80% confidence on this one.
ROH will ascend- slowly. The biggest beneficiary of TNA's slow-motion collapse will be Ring of Honor. They're very well equipped to take performers on a one-off basis without providing the kind of expectation that television fans are used to. (Imagine a WWE champion fighting four or five different people in a month for the belt.) They'll be able to pick and choose who they want to help build up their own cards and get people into their arenas. (Sorry, TDS- I like the product lately, but their current TV show looks very much like it was filmed in a high school gym. Maybe college, I swear to God I saw covered up banners in the rafters.)
They also have a) the immediate lesson of TNA's overinvestment to learn from, b) a product that does not quickly translate into what the larger part of the professional wrestling base has come to expect (there's a reason why people call TNA 'WWE-lite', and it's not a bad thing), and c) ownership by a company that also owns a shitpot distribution system that they'd like to promote. All three factors will act as a brake on growth, which is a Good Thing. ROH will have the opportunity to expand rapidly, and could end up in the ECW situation if they aren't careful- having a deal with a television network who insists on production changes which alter the reason why they bought into the product in the first place. Their ownership by Sinclair (however that's divided) will hold up any major changes until they either sell or are bought out; the whole rational for their ownership is providing content on their satellite network. This is all good, long-term, for ROH- they aren't a large company, and you don't become a large company overnight, no matter how much money pours into it. (People riding the app bubble pay no heed to that last sentence.)
There's a huge shakeup in the cable television world coming within the next few years- the factors which have caused the recent fights between cable companies and content providers haven't changed. People are still cord cutting and finding it harder and harder to justify $50-$80 a month for cable television. It's impossible to say if there will be room for a smaller professional wrestling on cable TV in the future- or if cable TV will still be a relevant distribution mechanism for a smaller professional wrestling company.