Obama Preparing for War With Iran

[ryan86]

You guys are vicious. This is unbelievable. I have never wrote a more serious thread than this. My spelling sucks. So what. It doesn't change the substance of the thread. The only mistake is Mahmoud's Election, which I put at '03, but it was really '05. Every last bit of the 9 or 10 post analysis was historically accurate and on substance provided a ton of education to people interested in the region breakdown.

Those who truely like politics and geo-political analysis would have commented on the merrits.

Those who don't care just came here to turn this into a "Trash Ryan" thread.

I defended my analysis on the substance while you guys dragged my name through the mud. I'm sick of it.

Im a person in real life on the other end of your screen and I have feelings to. Just remember that.

I mean I cried when Bambi's Mom got shot...

 

[Chess]

 

[Барбоса]

Even though the whole premise is historically and geo-politically ludricous (there has been no successful western invasion of the Iranian plateau since Alexander the Great), the dressing up of suggestions as "analysis" and "substance" has gotten me to reply.

There is no Muslim nation that would openly side with the US should it decide to invade Iran and any covert support from say the mad Saudis would likely involve nothing other than a "go get'em" and continuing to sell oil. To think otherwise is to ignore the past decade or more of deepening anti-Americanism in the Middle East. I will agree than most of the Muslim nations all hate each other but not enough to support an American invasion to topple an elected leader (albeit in a highly questionable election) and his religious Supreme Leader.

Outside of Israel, the only real allies that the Americans have in the Middle East are Egypt and Turkey and following the Arab Spring the former is in absolutely no state to project any kind of influence beyond their borders in any overt or covert way. The Turks, despite their religious demographic, do not really count as a Muslim country and have long since thrown their lot in with Europe and the US. However, despite this westward stance, their failure to do anything about Syria demonstrates that Ankara has no interest in getting involved in Middle East politics even more so than she already is.

I defended my analysis on the substance while you guys dragged my name through the mud. I'm sick of it.

Im a person in real life on the other end of your screen and I have feelings to. Just remember that.

Then maybe you should tone down your "I'm smarter than you" chat then. You consistently paint a massive target on your back with the antagonistic way you fail to deal with criticism. Others have said that they too have PoliSci degrees and yet they do not come in here and spout off every five secs that they happen to have a piece of paper that says so. As someone who has been to university far longer than you and worked within the grading system, I can say that having a BA does not mean that you actually know anything about anything.

And if you have not learned that style plays as big a role as actual substance and analysis, save yourself another Bambi's mum moment and stay the hell away from politics.

 

[Davi323]

Clearly Bambi is trying to make his mother's death look like a suicide.

 

[ryan86]

There is no Muslim nation that would openly side with the US should it decide to invade Iran and any covert support from say the mad Saudis would likely involve nothing other than a "go get'em" and continuing to sell oil. To think otherwise is to ignore the past decade or more of deepening anti-Americanism in the Middle East. I will agree than most of the Muslim nations all hate each other but not enough to support an American invasion to topple an elected leader (albeit in a highly questionable election) and his religious Supreme Leader.

Your understanding of SE Asia and N Africa is very superficial. You have no real idea what is going on there. This is my passion, so if it is out there, I studdy it.

Just one example needed to show you how crude your understanding is.:

Saudi Arabia and Iran are currenlty in multiple proxy-wars. And just one example: Bahrain.

Saudi Arabia, just as much as Israel, wants the U.S. to topple the regiem.

 

[Davi323]

You can spell superficial and Bahrain correctly, and then manage to botch the word study? Yeesh.

 

[Барбоса]

As an historian, I have plenty of understanding of what goes on in the Middle East. Some of the players and the nature of the flash points might have changed but the actual situations have remained the same for millennia.

And in the end, such superficial understandings are all that matter.

It is all the mattered for the US to invade Iraq and Afghanistan and should they go after Iran, the controlling majority of the Muslim world will just see another American crusade against a Muslim country that has done nothing wrong. That is why they will not give any actual support the Americans if push were to come to shove. The best the US could hope for should they decide to go into Iran would be for the Muslim governments to remain neutral.

I would also argue that there is a reason why such proxy wars are fought - the two countries have no interest in fighting head to head. And if the US had any gumption, it would keep its nose out of Iran so that it will continue to let it isolate itself from the wider Muslim community and eventual collapse under the weight of its own radical, religious conservatism. The sheer fact that it has not yet is due to sections of the Iranian and Muslim community as a whole see idiotic regimes like Iran and Syria as the only counter-weight to Israeli and American commercial/religious imperialism.

 

[a0161613]

Barbosa is pretty much the smartest guy on the site while you can't spell and continue to piss people off. Stop being a troll.

 

[Барбоса]

I would rank Gelgarin ahead of me

 

[a0161613]

OK top three....

 

[ryan86]

As an historian, I have plenty of understanding of what goes on in the Middle East.

And in the end, such superficial understandings are all that matter.

It is all the mattered for the US to invade Iraq and Afghanistan and should they go after Iran, the controlling majority of the Muslim world will just see another American crusade against a Muslim country that has done nothing wrong. That is why they will not give any actual support the Americans if push were to come to shove.

Push come to shove? The leaders of Saudi Arabia/Jordan/Bahrain/U.A.E./Egypt/Abu Dhadi/and Qatar are begging us to "cut the head of the snake". If you dont want to listen to me, Maybe you will liste to those leaders themselves: (Egypt is still controlled by the Military, who has the same 35 year strategic friendship with the U.S.)

Here is what they really think, NOT what is said for the public:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

 

[ryan86]

here is the link that has been my hidden ace. I LOVE GETTING PEOPLE ON THE RECORD AND THEN DROPPING MY ACE.

I'm a master at these things. I'm just going to sit back and laugh now. I was going to wait a little longer... but it's time:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

 

[BK Styles]

Your PROFESSIONAL opinion? And you got that from having an undergraduate degree? WOW. I have a BA (hons) in Theatre and Professional Practice; does that make me a professional Actor, or a director, or a scriptwriter? No, you dumbass. Go get an MA or a PhD then maybe, just MAYBE, I'll take your word more seriously. And even then, you'd still have a rotten attitude towards people who have evidence to disagree with you.

People have countered your long-winded argument, and yet you refuse to accept that you might be wrong. You're not unintelligent, you're just a stubborn idiot. Your number 1 counter argument is "go back and look at my posts, I have stated all the facts." No you fucking haven't. You've stated ones that have backed your idea up, BUT you disregard anything that goes against what you say as opposed to properly arguing it.

Stop playing the 'I'm great at politics' and the 'I'm good at driving discussion with facts' cards. If more people criticise you than praise you, that should tell you something. Barbosa said it best:

Then maybe you should tone down your "I'm smarter than you" chat then. You consistently paint a massive target on your back with the antagonistic way you fail to deal with criticism. Others have said that they too have PoliSci degrees and yet they do not come in here and spout off every five secs that they happen to have a piece of paper that says so. As someone who has been to university far longer than you and worked within the grading system, I can say that having a BA does not mean that you actually know anything about anything.

That last sentence is very true too. I have a theatre degree. I will never claim to know everything about Shakespeare, Chekov, Marlowe, Ibsen, Brecht, or any of the other big playwrights. I know a bit of 20th Century American Theatre; guys like Wilder and Tennessee Williams, but I'm no expert. Your degree doesn't mean your opinion is unfaultable, or right.

Stop thinking you know better than everyone. You don't.

 

[Барбоса]

Since when does those countries asking the US to invade through diplomatic channels mean that they are going to give anything other than "go get'em" support? Diplomats lie and manipulate for a living.

In fact, those pleas are the very essence of "when push comes to shove." They will push the US all the way to the battlefield but when the actual shoving begins they will be nowhere to be found because not wanting to bear the financial, political, religious or human cost themselves to get rid of the snake, those countries want America to fight a proxy war for them.

Should an invasion of Iran come, these countries will simply sit and watch from the sidelines in order to position themselves where it will be most useful for them in the fall out - a tacit supporter of American action or a detractor against the cruel imperialist invader.

It is one of the biggest lessons that the likes of the US and the UK need to learn - they are not the police force of the world. How they dealt with Libya was a good step forward but an attack against Iran without direct military provocation will be about 50 steps backward. The sheer presence of Israel in any such attack will alienate everyone.

Egypt may still be controlled by the military but they have no time to be deploying anything beyond their own borders due to continued politcial unrest.

 

[Canadian Ninja]

here is the link that has been my hidden ace. I LOVE GETTING PEOPLE ON THE RECORD AND THEN DROPPING MY ACE.

I'm a master at these things. I'm just going to sit back and laugh now. I was going to wait a little longer... but it's time:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

And you wonder why people don't like you. You're ego is going to be the end of you here, and no one will miss you. You further prove that you're degree, BA, whatever it is, is false. Would you do this on an essay? Write facts without showing any support until you feel it's the right time to give sources? Of course not, it makes you look bad. Good, your point was proven. You don't need to look like a prick. If you had posted these sources when you first posted, we could take you more seriously. All you've proven is that you're a fraud with an ego problem. Get over yourself.

I have friends who are either going to be part of the military or come from a military family, who keep an eye on current events. If the US were to take action any time soon, it'd be far more damaging then it should. The US just got out of a 10 year war, logistics and morale just aren't there to go for another battle. Certainly not in the time Obama has until elections, it'd be stupid. As Barbossa just said, the Middle East will avoid the conflict themselves, and the US will look worse for it. The United Nations will do everything they can to prevent a war, as that is their main purpose. Member nations are not allowed to take military action unless there is no other means. If the US was to jump every time a nuclear weapons programme was suspected, they'd be in the Korean Peninsula fighting a war there as well, as it's a known fact North Korea has nuclear weapons.

 

[ryan86]

My point was to write an analysis on SE Asia and N Africa. Then explain the diference between Arab and Persion, Sunni and Shi'ite and the historical differences. I presented the different groups and councils, then explained who belong to what. The military option was hypothetical and I only gave an analysis of how it would most likely play-out. There was 7 parts and several continuations. It provided what the Iranian responce would be, and who would be supporting us in the effort. The GCC and most Arab League countries would support us, some would be very covert and sound against it in public, but secretly be providing intel, bases, and other logistics to Nato forces. Other Arab/Sunni nations, like Saudi Arabia, would be the first hit by an Iranian retaliation on the oil fields. The saudis have already calculated this and plan to use U.S. military assets (shared/sold) to them by us, to defend/counter-attack Iranain mssile targets. The U.S. is loading the Saudis with war planes and missle defence systems.

 

[ryan86]

Your PROFESSIONAL opinion? And you got that from having an undergraduate degree? WOW. I have a BA (hons) in Theatre and Professional Practice; does that make me a professional Actor, or a director, or a scriptwriter? No, you dumbass. Go get an MA or a PhD then maybe, just MAYBE, I'll take your word more seriously. And even then, you'd still have a rotten attitude towards people who have evidence to disagree with you.

People have countered your long-winded argument, and yet you refuse to accept that you might be wrong. You're not unintelligent, you're just a stubborn idiot. Your number 1 counter argument is "go back and look at my posts, I have stated all the facts." No you fucking haven't. You've stated ones that have backed your idea up, BUT you disregard anything that goes against what you say as opposed to properly arguing it.

Now you can admit I was right:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

 

[ryan86]

Your PROFESSIONAL opinion? And you got that from having an undergraduate degree? WOW. I have a BA (hons) in Theatre and Professional Practice; does that make me a professional Actor, or a director, or a scriptwriter? No, you dumbass. Go get an MA or a PhD then maybe, just MAYBE, I'll take your word more seriously. And even then, you'd still have a rotten attitude towards people who have evidence to disagree with you.

People have countered your long-winded argument, and yet you refuse to accept that you might be wrong. You're not unintelligent, you're just a stubborn idiot. Your number 1 counter argument is "go back and look at my posts, I have stated all the facts." No you fucking haven't. You've stated ones that have backed your idea up, BUT you disregard anything that goes against what you say as opposed to properly arguing it.

Now you can apologise:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

 

[ryan86]

And you wonder why people don't like you. You're ego is going to be the end of you. Good, your point was proven. You don't need to look like a prick. If you had posted these sources when you first posted, we could take you more seriously. All you've proven is that you're a fraud with an ego problem.

I worked very hard on my analysis and it took tons of effort. And out of the 9 or 10 post analysis, the only thing I screwed up was the Mohmoud '03 election that happened in '05. I was tiny mistake. Everything else was either historically accurtate or an analysis on what a hypothetical military action might look like.

And instead of recognising my serious effort, all you guys could do was drag my name through the mud. This was all about who could trash me the best. That is what this was all about. So I let it play out... and he who laughs last, laughs loudest.

Use this as a teaching moment about respecting people's serious efforts on serious issues. I was hurt a little...

 

[Davi323]

If the US was to jump every time a nuclear weapons programme was suspected, they'd be in the Korean Peninsula fighting a war there as well, as it's a known fact North Korea has nuclear weapons.

Meh. It's not just about possessing the nuclear weapons, it's also about the willingness to use them. While we keep an eye on North Korea (lets face it, Kim Jong Il was an amusing little bastard), I don't think the US ever considered him a legit threat to ever actually order the use of nuclear weapons. There are too many nukes pointed at North Korea from China and Russia to believe that North Korea would ever be dumb enough to ever do it. There would be nothing to gain. They have seen War Games, they know the conclusion the WOPR computer reached. They play their little games, but for North Korea, their nuclear weapons are just a political tool to bargain with, not a tactical one to ever use. North Korea understands the rules, and when push comes to shove, plays by them...more or less.

Iran is a little bit different. When you combine a (probable) nuclear weapons program plus their repeated claims that they desire to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, I think you have to take that threat a little more seriously than you would North Korea. Iran is more unpredictable than North Korea is, and you cannot immediately discount the possibility that they might actually be irrational enough to use them. Ahmadinejad is batshit crazy. What if he means what he says about destroying Israel, AND he has the technology to actually do it?

Religious hatred of Israel + nuclear weapons = bad news for everybody.

I don't doubt for one second that the United States, United Kingdom, Israel and the rest of the NATO countries have multiple contingency plans in place to take out Iranian nuclear capacity if it becomes determined that they possess it. They have contingency plans for just about everything. I think Ryan's claim that Obama is prepping for war with Iran is at the moment, premature. We get intel that Iran has the capacity to develop nuclear weapons? Completely different story.

 

[Canadian Ninja]

Meh. It's not just about possessing the nuclear weapons, it's also about the willingness to use them. While we keep an eye on North Korea (lets face it, Kim Jong Il was an amusing little bastard), I don't think the US ever considered him a legit threat to ever actually order the use of nuclear weapons. There are too many nukes pointed at North Korea from China and Russia to believe that North Korea would ever be dumb enough to ever do it. There would be nothing to gain. They have seen War Games, they know the conclusion the WOPR computer reached. They play their little games, but for North Korea, their nuclear weapons are just a political tool to bargain with, not a tactical one to ever use. North Korea understands the rules, and when push comes to shove, plays by them...more or less.

Actually, North Korea would run to Russia and China to ask for help whenever they went a little too far, and China and Russia would bail them out. It wasn't until recently that China and Russia said they'd no longer protect N. Korea from the UN if they started pushing too far. They have two warheads, and no way to use them successfully as they are outdated in everyway compared to the rest of the world.

I worked very hard on my analysis and it took tons of effort. And out of the 9 or 10 post analysis, the only thing I screwed up was the Mohmoud '03 election that happened in '05. I was tiny mistake. Everything else was either historically accurtate or an analysis on what a hypothetical military action might look like.

And instead of recognising my serious effort, all you guys could do was drag my name through the mud. This was all about who could trash me the best. That is what this was all about. So I let it play out... and he who laughs last, laughs loudest.

Use this as a teaching moment about respecting people's serious efforts on serious issues. I was hurt a little...

You're other mistake was not posting you're sources in those previous analysis threads to give some credibility to them. With you not doing it, and constantly quoting people saying "victory lap" or "You can apologize now" you made your self look not like a university graduate but a stuck up prick. I complimented you in my very first post here, just asking for your sources as the ones I have read did not give the information you gave. You turned into a douche with the way you react when someone questions your "professional" (which you can't be if you do volunteer work) information because there is no credible facts behind it until you felt it was right to throw out there. A real university graduate would know how to make credible arguements and use facts with proper back up to support what they are saying, and not save them as an "ace up their sleeve".

 

[ryan86]

Canadian Ninja:

Do you not remember telling me to get more accurate points? Well, every last one of them turned out accurate, except the mis-statement on Mahoud's "election". I knew what I was saying was accurate and it is NOT my fault that people come in here to troll. They don't have a care in the world about the most serious problems facing the world and they have NO clue what the facts are, other than what they were told, or heard, with NO real context or opinion forming of their own.

If this is your passion, then you would know what the hell your talking about, or it would NOT be your passion. This is my passion. And I expected people to read it with interest (if they enjoy geo-political discussions), and maybe come away with a better understanding.

Everybody has a passion and most of the time it can NOT be taught. You either excell, or you dont. I DO NOT EXCELL AT SPELLING.

And for people questioning my degree... If you want to act like Donald trump... watch out.

 

[The_Misson]

First off if you don't excel at spelling why don't you use spell check or reread your posts? You come off as someone very uneducated when you constantly misspell words. Second off cite your essays. If someone simply asks to see where you got your information why wait as long as you did to do it? Also, you come off incredibly childish and immature when you yell things like "Victory Lap." If you were having a civilized debate with your former professors at UT would you yell victory lap every time you thought you one upped your professor? I hope not. Finally, people are gonna disagree with your opinion. Don't get so damn butt hurt over it.

 

[ryan86]

First off if you don't excel at spelling why don't you use spell check or reread your posts? You come off as someone very uneducated when you constantly misspell words. Second off cite your essays. If someone simply asks to see where you got your information why wait as long as you did to do it? Also, you come off incredibly childish and immature when you yell things like "Victory Lap." If you were having a civilized debate with your former professors at UT would you yell victory lap every time you thought you one upped your professor? I hope not. Finally, people are gonna disagree with your opinion. Don't get so damn butt hurt over it.

First of all, nothing I stated on historical matters were opinion. You can't have your own facts when discussing history, only perspectives. If the argument was over what perspective you took when evaluating historical facts, that is an argument you can have. How-ever, that was NOT the argument that was taking place. Your way late to this.

 

[ryan86]

First of all, nothing I stated on historical matters were opinion. You can't have your own facts when discussing history, only perspectives. If the argument was over what perspective you took when evaluating historical facts, that is an argument you can have. How-ever, that was NOT the argument that was taking place. Your way late to this.

And one more thing; you can jump on the "spelling police" bandwaggon, but if that is the major complaint in you head, which has nothing to do with my analysis being true or not, it's only because you have nothing else to attack, so why not attack the person. I have no problem with mispelling on a wrestling forum and I admit if I made an error, but can you actually contribute to the real substance of what I was analyzing? The answer is no. So you will allways revert back to character assination.

And at the end of the day I won. No matter how bad I spell. You say I come accross as uneducated? I would rather mis-spell than get the facts wrong.