Err advantage Smokey then?
That went down pretty much exactly how I said it would apart from Sayid killing Dogen and Lennon (I don't think we've seen the last of them yet).
Honestly though, how many times has Dogen fucked up? He drowns Sayid, pissing him off, he then tried to poison him, pissing him off, he then sends him out into the jungle on a wild goose chase so Smokey can kill him. Is it any fucking wonder that Sayid got somewhat pissed off and decided to join Smokey?
I'm glad Miles escaped though I'm kind of wondering how the hell Illana's gang got into the temple without being seen... ah they probably went from the Dharmaville tunnel.
If you're Claire wouldn't you be thinking "Hey, my son isn't here afterall, that Smokey bastard lied to me"
I think this leaves
Jack
Kate
Hurley
Sawyer (possibly)
Jin and/or Sun
as candidates. Oh and Haasea and Kysea, whoever the fuck they are. Purely from a narrative you'd expect Jack to be the 1 remaining candidate but I can't imagine Hurley (and possibly Kate) being corrupted by Smokey.