IC25's Royal Rumble Odds - 2nd Edition

[IrishCanadian25]

MODERATOR COMMENTS (Lord Sidious)


To keep this on topic, please comment on the odds that IC has assigned, and state whether you agree or disagree with the odds. Then, state why you agree or why you don't agree.

This is a realistic "Odds of Winning" thread-- not a "Who I want to win the Rumble" or "Who SHOULD win the Rumble" thread.


Thank you.

For the 2nd straight year, I have decided to handicap the WWE Royal Rumble, complete with odds to win and why. Feel free to comment as you see fit.

3 to 2
Shawn Michaels
Triple H

Yep, DX members HHH and HBK are my two odds-on favorites to win the Rumble. And you know what? I'll even give 2 to 1 odds that the Rumble match comes down to these two. Think about it - the stare down, the commentary "DX Explodes! Vintage WWE!" Yeah, I think this one is a given, if you wanna make a safe bet, here it is.

3 to 1
John Cena

Cena is the wild card here. Just in case WWE decides to swerve us and put Cena in the title match. I am truly hoping this isn't the case, but he's always someone you lay at least some money down on, since he's WWE's most marketable star, and people will watch Wrestlemania either to see him win or to see him lose.

5 to 1
Batista

His heel turn was interesting for a time, but his star is falling fast. He's into his 40's, is kinda injury prone, and has been buried on Smackdown for sometime now. Still, just think about Mysterio upsetting Taker at the Rumble, freeing him up to feud with Shawn Michaels, and Mysterio and Batista ending their feud over the title at Wrestlemania. Not out of the question.

7 to 1
Kofi Kingston

Orton is facing Sheamus for the WWE Title at the Rumble, so a Kofi win isn't too far fetched. I doubt he'll get the nod at this event, since new challengers winning the Rumble are not uber-common, but let's at least admit the chance that Kofi has a shot to be there and go to Wrestlemania to face Orton. I mean, there aren't too many feuds that have been running longer than Orton / Kingston, are there?

10 to 1
Chris Jericho
Edge

I think the more likely scenario is Edge costing Jericho the Rumble, but neither man has ever won the 30-man over the top rope battle, and both are main-event capable. Both have main evented Wrestlemania, both losing to a Rumble winner. I think, if Jericho is getting a shot at a title soon, he'd earn it through MITB, not the Rumble though.

12 to 1
John Morrison

He dropped the IC Title to Drew McIntyre, and there's some skepticism surrounding whether Morrison will now take a step up into the World Title Picture. Again, I doubt he'll be a Rumble winner, but at the very least, he's in that same "about to be a main eventer" category along with Kofi.

15 to 1
Big Show
Cody Rhodes
Ted DiBiase
CM Punk

I am resigned to the fact that Show is never going to win the Rumble. Every year, he is called "an odds on favorite" to win the thing, but the truth is, the only Superheavyweights to EVER win a Rumble have been Yokozuna and Big John Studd.

Legacy is going to split some other way, but we have to at least acknowledge a scenario in which Orton wins the WWE Title from Sheamus and Rhodes or DiBiase wins the Rumble, leadng to a conflict between two men and testing the third guy's loyalty.

Punk seems to be going backwards, so giving him 15 to 1 odds feels generous.

35 to 1
The Miz
MVP
Mark Henry


Here we see the MAJOR mid-card drop off. None of these guys are winning this thing. Henry moves around from quasi-meaningful program to the next and does a nice job with it. Miz and MVP are starting a program together, so neither is going to main event Wrestlemania. But you have to account for a total screw up.

50 to 1
Dolph Ziggler
Kozlov
Shelton Benjamin
Kane
Matt Hardy
Drew McIntyre
Finlay
R-Truth

There's a better chance I will grow a 3rd nut than any of these guys winning the Rumble. You remeber when Kozlov was undefeated and wrestled Shawn Michaels for the right to face the Undertaker at Wrestlemania? Yeah, neither do I.

100 to 1
Jack Swagger
Santino Marella

"Chea, and monkeys might fly outta my butt!"

500 to 1
Yoshi Tatsu
Zack Ryder
Rob van Dam

RVD isn't confirmed, but I picked Edge as my other Wild Card, so I am picking RVD here, and he'll get a great pop, and quickly be eliminated. Roddy Piper or Ricky Steamboat could also be a wild card participant. Doesn't matter.

1000 to 1
Evan Bourne

He didn't even get entrance music before his match against Sheamus Monday Night. The only mystery here is if Kane, Show, or Henry military press Bourne into the 4th, 5th, or 6th row. 4 to 1 odds he clears the mezzanine.

 

[RMA Morrison]

Pretty good stuff there. I'd flip flop where you have Edge and Legacy though. Only due to Edge's health and increase Rhodes/Dibiase in case Orton wins against Sheamus. For some reason though I think Sheamus keeps the strap. Wanna put odds on that one?

 

[Big Nick Dudley]

If I were a betting man (which is what this thread is about) I would go with one of three guys; Triple H, Shawn Michaels, or Chris Jericho. Fans would love to see Michaels and HHH have the main event at mania ( I just want DX to split up). You know they would put on a dynamite match, and it would be over big time. Jericho has never won a Rumble match, and I think he will eventually win one (maybe not this year). He always puts on great matches and is marketable enough to headline mania. I am going to throw a complete dark horse in here; Randy Orton. If he loses to Sheamus, I could see them running something where he slithers his way into the Rumble that night, and repeats as Rumble winner. Just a thought.

 

[El AlcoHALLic]

I want to see DiBiase win but I'm inclined to go with HBK. That would set up a world Title match with Taker and make this rematch somewhat interesting.

What no odds for TL Hopper? I'm dissapointed.

 

[markmeout]

Like your rankings but i have to disagree on a few things. Jericho already has other plans for him at wrestlemania that dosnt include the title. Cena is not in the plan sheet for a title match either. Right now the title matches look like shemus vs hhh and hbk vs taker so ur first two are right. I will up the odds for the 35 to 1 group as I see at least 2 of them to be left in the final 4 and who knows miz could win it but hes the only other person other then hbk, hhh, legacy, and batista that has a chance. Why in gods name is santino in this match. Such a waiste of space with him and swagger and carlito since we all know whats going to happen to them. Give their spots to heart dynasty and to another mystery competitor. Kofi has 0 shot to win this rumble since his push has slowed down and by no means are they planing anything more then money in the bank for him. I cant see any of the 50 to 1 or lower guys winning either since that impossible. So my rumble pick is sadly HBK for a third time. I say sadly because i feel the rumble should be for the young guys to win to put them over. Not a man that won 2 royal rumbles 13 and 14 years ago. If HHH wins its obvious that hes winning because a wrestlemania without a hhh title match cant sell, at least thats what vince thinks.

 

[ccod191]

good picks but i also disagree on some stuff. knowing the wwe they will either have a mid-carder(im talking about miz, morrison or shelton) step up and win, or have a solid main-eventer like kane or cm punk win. i just hope to gawd that they don't put punk in the mitb and have him win for the third time in a row, because that will literally kill mitb. i could honestly see a scenario where every one of these guys could win, (except for ecw stars and santino) because vince has been a little unpredictable lately. i just hope that booket t or my wildcard pick jbl (dont laugh) comes back and makes an upset. i see it pretty unlikely that edge will come back this early, but like i said, who knows anything anymore?

 

[Bernkastel]

In the Rumble speculation thread, I gave several predictions on who I though had the best chance of winning the Rumble.

I would argue that both Bastista and Kofi Kingston have the same chance of winning the Rumble. Kofi may have an even higher chance because he's a face and not a heel. I say that because their have been a higher percentage of faces to win the Rumble than heels.

They're both in the same boat, both are currently in feuds with the number 1 contenders for the world titles on each show (Batista with Mysterio, Kingston with Orton.) It would make sense for either to win the Rumble, and challenge for the title shot that slipped their grasps for the Rumble.

The reason I'm not quick to bet on Shawn Michaels, is that I know that HHH (allies or not) is not going to let him win if he can help it. The only way I can see Michales winning (or HHH for that matter) is if one of the members of DX doesn't make the final 4.

If Michaels and HHH are the last two left, they're going to betray each other. Hell, if they end up feuding again in the future, maybe Michaels could be the heel this time. His obsession with the Undertaker does come across as selfish and an overall distraction to DX. Heel tendencies if you ask me.

 

[Tastycles]

I think you can throw Randy Orton in the top 10 too. It wouldn't be the first time that a heel bullied his way into the Rumble, and they need more people in there.I think Edge's odds are too short, as while I'm sure he'll appear at the event, I doubt a torn achilles would be healed enough by now for him to get in the ring. Otherwise, good odds as ever. I'm not sure if it will be RVD, I think Booker T is an equal possibility. Either way, their odds are in the right region.