IC25's New Article - MITB Odds, Punk, etc.

[IrishCanadian25]

http://www.wrestlezone.com/editorials/article/handicapping-the-money-in-the-bank-ladder-matches-132305

First off, before I get to my odds for the Money in the Bank Ladder Matches, I want to follow the popular trend and weigh in on C.M. Punk. Last night, my wife and I were on the couch watching Monday Night Raw the same way we do every week. It should have been the normal process - we watch the opening segment while eating dinner, get some ice cream during the first commercial, do some housework during the Divas match (unless Beth Phoenix is involved, in which case she's glued to the set), and remain 75% fixated until we either tap out and go to sleep or something interesting happens.

Admittedly (and I am not proud of this), last week was one of those nights when we tapped out at 10:00 pm and crashed. As a result, I awoke to my cell phone totally blown up with texts and Facebook tirades regarding C.M. Punk's apparent "shoot" at the end of Raw and subsequent feed-cut. When they aired the clips during the opening of last night's show, my wife's jaw dropped. When Punk claimed that he hoped the WWE would be better off if McMahon died, she gasped. Then, knowing that I am a regular on Wrestlezone's main page as well as the forums, she turned to me and asked one question.

"Is this real?"

Such a loaded question because, for the first time in a while, there is no clear cut answer. Too many shades of gray.

"I honestly am not sure." I replied. Now to be fair, I was fairly sure this had been a "worked shoot" as many of you have mentioned on the forums. If it had been a pure unscripted shoot and the bosses not known about it at all, then Punk's feed would have been cut sooner. But the end of Punk's WWE contract is certainly real (whether or not he has or will resign is a mystery to me), as are many of the things he said regarding ROH, Paul Heyman, etc.

I didn't recant my non-committal answer until Vince - I'm sorry, "Mr. McMahon" showed his hand a bit by exclaiming that he didn't care what the hell the fans thought. There's no truth to that statement. That's the character, Mr. McMahon talking, and not Vincent K. McMahon the entrepreneur. Each paying fan is just another click on the pedometer that is Vinnie Mac's ego. He's earned it, and he's done so by trying to give the fans what they want. So while it's all clearly somewhere in between "work" and "worked shoot," I for one don't really care. Simply stated, I don't care because I am truly interested in seeing what happens next. Work, shoot, or in between, I'm hooked.

That said, the confrontation between Cena and Punk will occur in 12 days at Money in the Bank, and it just wouldn't be a MITB PPV without my giving you all the odds each participant has in the two ladder matches. We'll start with Smackdown, since I just covered Raw's big story.

Smackdown Money in the Bank

Heath Slater, 50-1. It's great that he's getting some PPV time in something other than a tag team match, but he's an unremarkable part of the roster with zero personal heat coming in. Likely, he'll be on the receiving end of a big spot from Kane or S(h)eamus.

Justin Gabriel, 45-1. Let's all face it - he's in the match solely so he can hit a 450-splash from the top of a ladder. He may also be here to finally split from Slater and Barrett.

Kane, 35-1. He won last year, and doesn't strike anyone as a viable 2-time winner. He took the WHC last year out of dire need for a stable champion, but with Orton and Christian at the top of the heap, Kane doesn't need to come to the rescue this year.

Sin Cara, 30-1. He just lost his first match, and despite being "Triple H's pet project," he's no place close to a major title shot. He'll botch some big spots and he'll hit some big spots, but he is a crash and burn away from being an after thought in this match.

Daniel Bryan, 25-1. He's a babyface with very little momentum. That never bodes well in a match like this, which favors heels seeking a breakout. Bryan is a great mid-card worker, but not a guy I see holding a briefcase.

Wade Barrett, 10-1. Odds suddenly improve when we get to my top 3. Barrett just dropped the IC title to Big Zeke, and is now seeking a new program. I have too strong a feeling that the MITB ladder match is the venue against which the Corre will finally split, which means Barrett getting his chance wrecked by Gabriel and Slater is just too likely.

Cody Rhodes, 6-1. The Dashing One has really come into his own as of late, and I could absolutely see him as a clear foil to Randy Orton in the short term. I still don't think he's a long term championship contender, but he's a guy who could very feasibly win this match.

S(h)eamus, 3-1. The big man from Ireland has been on the fringe of the Orton / Christian feud for some time now, and has heat with both men. Plus, since he's a two-time former WWE Champion, a Smackdown main event at Summer Slam consisting of S(h)eamus and Orton would be a draw. The potential foil here is the fact that S(h)eamus clearly doesn't "need" the Money in the Bank briefcase to be a relevant title contender, but he'd sure be a safe bet. Overall, though, unless you want to donate your money, don't bet outside of the top 3.

Raw Money in the Bank

Alex Riley, 45-1. Too new, too green, and embroiled in an unresolved feud with The Miz. Last night's Raw further showed us that there is still bad blood with Riley and Miz, and with Riley 2-0 against his former friend, Miz will be pre-occupied with ending Riley's chances.

Evan Bourne, 40-1. Just like Justin Gabriel and Sin Cara on Smackdown, Bourne isn't a serious contender for the briefcase here. He is there to do some amazing high spots - probably with fewer botches than Sin Cara - and then get flattened.

Jack Swagger, 38-1. He's won the Money in the Bank before, and won the World Heavyweight Title as a result. And from there? One of the worst world title reigns ever. Swagger has been embarrassed by Evan Bourne for weeks now, and last night on Raw had a HUGE win <smirk> over...Sgt. Slaughter!?

The Miz, 20-1. I don't generally like the guys who are in unresolved feuds coming in to these matches. Miz's feud with Riley is heating up, which makes Miz a prime target of a big let down in this match. Plus, Miz had the case for MONTHS last year, and if he had it again now, fans would get a little annoyed.

Kofi Kingston, 20-1. Same odds as Miz for many similar reasons. He's still in a feud over the US title with Dolph Ziggler, who is oddly not in this match at all. I'd not be shocked if Ziggles interferes. Kofi is also a face (MITB favors heels) in whom I lack confidence to be able to carry that briefcase around for a while.

R-Truth, 15-1. As interesting as Truth with the Money in the Bank case would be - for about 2-3 weeks - the Little Jimmy puns would run their course really fast. Truth is a strange case of a heel who works better when the odds are stacked against him. Comspiracy claims and all. Plus, there wasn't very much too fascinating about his one-month program with Cena that makes ANYONE want to see it again.

Rey Mysterio, 10-1. It's no secret that I am not a Mysterio fan. I respect Oscar Guttierez, but I am way past the Rey character. The 619 is the most obnoxiously overdone finisher since the Worm. But that said, the guy is consistent and always a threat in a match like this. Let's just say for a second that Punk somehow beats Cena for the title. Wouldn't Rey be a magnificent choice for Punk's first defense? The two have had wars in the ring. Even Cena vs Rey would be interesting because it would test the loyalty of WWE's 6-14 year old market. Puberty be damned!

Alberto del Rio, 2-1. My overwhelming favorite, much the way he was for the Royal Rumble. There's just something so natural about del Rio riding into an arena in a Bentley and emerging from the drivers seat with the MITB case in hand and odd scarf (mid-summer, mind you) around his neck. He's a logical future contender for John Cena, and as he won the "new" #1 contenders match last night on Raw, he is sort of left twisting in the wind. del Rio was sent to Raw to be a top heel to John Cena. If Punk did not and does not resign, it's del Rio's "brass ring" to grab.

To close up - I watched the "Best of WCW Monday Nitro" DVD with a good friend and fellow wrestling fan on Sunday. If you have nothing to do on a rainy afternoon, this is a great watch for the sake of nostalgia and the value of "those who have not learned from history are doomed to repeat it." A few take-aways:

1. I'm sure his beef is legit, and I have no reason to doubt the man. He has a hell of a lot more experience than I do. But regardless of Mark Madden's professional beefs, there was a time Diamond Dallas Page was over as hell.

2. Bill Goldberg will never happen again. And I don't mean the man individually. I mean the sudden and unstoppable heat. My friend Adam, with whom I watched the DVD, astutely pointed out that, at the time of occurence, Hogan vs Goldberg was the biggest Monday Night Main Event in wrestling history.

3. Billy Kidman vs Juventud Guerrera and Chris Jericho vs Rey Mysterio are two indisputable reasons why the WWE should bring back the Cruiserweight Division.

4. How Torrie Wilson isn't regarded as the hottest woman in wrestling history across the board is beyond me.

If you'd like to chat Punk, my MITB Odds, or any other professional wrestling (or non-professional wrestling) topic, please check out the Wrestlezone Forums! http://forums.wrestlezone.com/.

Happy 4th of July!

Chris "IrishCanadian25" Fitzpatrick

 

[NSL]

Wade Barrett, 10-1. Odds suddenly improve when we get to my top 3. Barrett just dropped the IC title to Big Zeke, and is now seeking a new program. I have too strong a feeling that the MITB ladder match is the venue against which the Corre will finally split, which means Barrett getting his chance wrecked by Gabriel and Slater is just too likely.

Cody Rhodes, 6-1. The Dashing One has really come into his own as of late, and I could absolutely see him as a clear foil to Randy Orton in the short term. I still don't think he's a long term championship contender, but he's a guy who could very feasibly win this match.

S(h)eamus, 3-1. The big man from Ireland has been on the fringe of the Orton / Christian feud for some time now, and has heat with both men. Plus, since he's a two-time former WWE Champion, a Smackdown main event at Summer Slam consisting of S(h)eamus and Orton would be a draw. The potential foil here is the fact that S(h)eamus clearly doesn't "need" the Money in the Bank briefcase to be a relevant title contender, but he'd sure be a safe bet. Overall, though, unless you want to donate your money, don't bet outside of the top 3.

I agree with these Top 3, and even agree with the "order" they're in. I'd think Wade Barrett would need it more than the other two, but he's in precisely the same role as Miz was last year. The heel looking for a breakout. He's going to havea main even feud, just not right now. Maybe he wins the Rumble?

Cody does not need the briefcase. He's on the fast track to the main event, and will probably get there even before Barrett. He's grown on me, and I'm excited to see him with a potential title run, but he's got time before then.

Sheamus is my pick. You're right, he doesn't need the "push" to the main event, since he's on the fringe anyway, but just last year, Kane cashed the case in the same night. I'd bet there's another person this year that either does the same, or cashes it in the same week. Sheamus would be perfect, since he has reason to get involved in the main event match.

Alex Riley, 45-1. Too new, too green, and embroiled in an unresolved feud with The Miz. Last night's Raw further showed us that there is still bad blood with Riley and Miz, and with Riley 2-0 against his former friend, Miz will be pre-occupied with ending Riley's chances.

Kofi Kingston, 20-1. Same odds as Miz for many similar reasons. He's still in a feud over the US title with Dolph Ziggler, who is oddly not in this match at all. I'd not be shocked if Ziggles interferes. Kofi is also a face (MITB favors heels) in whom I lack confidence to be able to carry that briefcase around for a while.

Alberto del Rio, 2-1. My overwhelming favorite, much the way he was for the Royal Rumble. There's just something so natural about del Rio riding into an arena in a Bentley and emerging from the drivers seat with the MITB case in hand and odd scarf (mid-summer, mind you) around his neck. He's a logical future contender for John Cena, and as he won the "new" #1 contenders match last night on Raw, he is sort of left twisting in the wind. del Rio was sent to Raw to be a top heel to John Cena. If Punk did not and does not resign, it's del Rio's "brass ring" to grab.

This would be my Top 3. Not for betting, but the three I would choose as potential winners.

Del Rio just won the "#1 Contender's Spot", so I don't think he'll need the case to get a title shot as soon as next month. He's won the Rumble, he's been in title feuds before, and just like I said for Barrett and Rhodes, he'll have his chance.

Kofi may seem like an odd pick, but I think his inclusion was the reason Dolph wasn't there. I'm thinking (as you do also) that Dolph will interfere, but maybe he doesn't, and maybe we're not forced to see them go at it AGAIN. Kofi could win the case, and either use it himself, o carry it a few weeks/months, and then either put it on the line in a match, or have it stolen by Dolph, who would use it himself. I don't like the idea of him (Kofi) with the briefcase, but it has storyline potential down the road.

I'd pick A-Ri. Yes, he's green, but I like him, and like the way he's been used. He definitely wouldn't cash it in now, and would wait a few months, but a win for him would continue Miz's spiral into madness, and would pull him out from under Miz's shadow for good.

 

[Hollywood Naitch]

Great article as ever IC. I think most of your MITB odds are pretty much spot on.

Smackdown

I agree, it is nice to see Slater and Gabriel getting some singles PPV time, although I think you are right that their main role will be to cost Barrett the briefcase, mercifully ending The "Rotten" Corre once and for all. I will be pissed if we do not see a 450 from the ladder too, it needs to happen.

I full expect Sheamus to win the match, having been involved in the title picture with Orton and Christian. It makes sense from a storyline view, but I hope he doesnt win. It seems to obvious, and I like a surprise in these types of matches.

The dark horse in my eyes is Cody Rhodes. If Randy Orton leaves MITB with the title I think Rhodes could step up into the role of a main event level heel. I really did not think he had it in him to pull off a "bad-guy" role, but he is doing a fantastic job and should be ready for the title shot in a few months. The briefcase would give him a ready made story for when he is.

Raw

I am a bit surprised to see Alex Riley so low down your rankings. That was the only major shock to me. I know he isnt ready, but I don't think its that much of a certainty that he wont win, knowing WWE's recent form of pushing people before they are ready. I don't think he will win, but I dont think its a guarantee that he wont.

He and Miz will probably continue their feud, and end up costing each other the briefcase at some point in the match, while its obvious that Sin Cara is there simply to provide us with some high-flying excitment, which is all right by me. He should do his job just fine.

With ADR and R-Truth sniffing around Cena's belt at the moment, they are the 2 I can see walking away with the case. However, I can't buy into Truth as a credible challenger, I think he has probably peaked in the WWE now and will end up back in the mid-card sooner rather than later. He isn't a guy who WWE can build a future around. Del Rio has more of that kind of potential so I see him as the man to challenge Cena.

The wildcard for me is Rey. I have no interest in a Cena v Mysterio title match, but if Punk is to become champion and stay in the company, then as you pointed out- Punk v Rey will be a quality match, so a Mysterio win would not be a bad thing in my eyes, as much as I am getting tired of seeing his watered-down, age-damaged act.

Overall though, great work as always homie.

 

[JGlass]

I find myself in a somewhat major disagreement with you, but at the same time almost entirely in agreement. I think you've gotten the Raw odds all wrong, but only because it's nearly impossible to predict as there are many variables. I think you have Smackdown dead on, but I could still nitpick at it, so I will!

Wade Barrett is definitely the third most likely guy to win the briefcase, but giving him 10:1 odds is generous. Sheamus is the perfect foil to Orton in my opinion, and giving him the briefcase is just a smart idea. He's already got the fire burning inside of him, give him the a vehicle for letting that fire out and burning Randy Orton to a crisp. Cody Rhodes just looks like a Money in the Bank winner. He can have Ted carry the case around for him, or maybe get a third bag man whose sole job is to carry the briefcase. He also has some serious beef with Orton from the past, and what better way to humiliate his enemy than by stealing his title from him when he's at his weakest? Compared to these two, Wade Barrett has no shot, especially after proving that he is completely unable to put on an interesting match with Orton during his time with Nexus. Bump him up to 20:1 odds.

With Raw the whole thing is too unpredictable. I agree that Del Rio is our most likely candidate for winning it, but for that reason it also means he may not, and from there it's a crap shoot. Rey Mysterio is the most reliable guy in the match, but he's also a face, so that might hold him back. Miz is a great heel and one of the best champions we've seen in a while, but he also won it last year. Kofi could use the push into the main event as he has been knocking on the door for years now, but he's also a career babyface and the nature of the briefcase doesn't really work for him. Alex Riley is green as grass, has a penchant for botches, and is a babyface embroiled in a heated feud... but it would great to see him carrying a Money in the Bank briefcase for himself, not to mention that the WWE seems to have big things planned for this guy's future. R-Truth seems unlikely for me, unless the WWE plans to have him cash it in and lose. The dude does not belong anywhere near the WWE Championship, and he proved that at Capitol Punishment when he look confused and helpless in the ring with John Cena. Swagger and Bourne have a better chance of being fired during the show than winning the briefcase. I admire your attempt to try to unravel the sticky situation that is the Raw Money in the Bank match, but I'm not even gonna try to put numbers on it.

So if I had to pick the winners... I'd go Cody Rhodes/Alberto Del Rio, but if we learned anything from last year's Money in the Bank PPV, it could be anybody.

 

[FunKay the Inevitable]

I can't see Alberto winning it. It's too obvious for my liking. He's most certainly the favourite, but I see him being named as the new #1 contender for SummerSlam following his victory in the three-way. That leaves the door open for someone and I think I'll say it goes to Truth. Truth getting the briefcase, cashing in, and losing works so well for his character, and also allows there to be something new and unique done with one of the cases this year. If I were to pick a dark horse, I'd say Kofi, mainly because they seem to want to do something with him, but can't quite get him out of his feud with Dolph/Vickie yet. I would've picked Riley as a dark horse, but the beat down last night cast doubt over that in my mind.

On SmackDown, I'm seeing a Wade Barrett win. Sheamus may well be involved with the Christian/Orton match, and he doesn't need to win the case. Barrett hinted at something a few weeks ago on SmackDown, when he said he was setting his sights on bigger things, and MitB is most certainly a bigger thing than the IC Championship. Barrett winning will restore a large portion of the credibility he's lost since he started the Corre. Dark horse here would probably be DBD. He's working a programme with Rhodes right now, but Cody seems set to move on to Big Zeke, and perhaps even bigger things, so that leaves Bryan without anything to hold him back from climbing that ladder and retrieving the briefcase. Right place, right time.

 

[nerd4life]

Miz is a great heel and one of the best champions we've seen in a while

LOL ARE YOU FUCKING ******ED

miz title reign was soooo boring.....all it was was him coming out saying hes awesome and must see. Him cheating to beat orton and cena.

they waste all this time trying to shove miz down our throats by having him promo agaisnt rocky and beat cena at mania (dity victory agen)

now they realize after there lowest ppv buys ever that nobody cares about the miz.
That is why he is jobbing to a ry now.

Because hes boring and sux.

So dont ever say he was one of th best champs again.

Dumbass.

Now as for the topic, Barret has a very good chance or cody maybe. Nobody else has a chance.

FOr raw Swagger A ry or maaaybe del rio but del rio is inthe same boat as shamous they dont need to win the mitb to become champ.

The MITB is used t elvate someone who isnt quite reasdy yet but could be in 3-12 months.

 

[IrishCanadian25]

Just a quick note - I'm simply handicapping the odds here. Of course the two guys with the best odds are the obvious choices. That's the point of odds. Ohio State is normally a 30+ point favorite at home vs Akron because of that very reason. Doesn't mean I don't want to see an upset.

I would flip if Alex Riley won, because it would absolutely drive The Miz batshit crazy, and Michael Cole as well. But I've also seen a lot of failed MITB cash ins - Swagger being chief among them - and I seriously doubt WWE wants to take that big of a risk again.

 

[NSL]

I would flip if Alex Riley won, because it would absolutely drive The Miz batshit crazy, and Michael Cole as well. But I've also seen a lot of failed MITB cash ins - Swagger being chief among them - and I seriously doubt WWE wants to take that big of a risk again.

That's exactly why I think he can win. It'd further their feud, while getting him ready to cash in the case. Just because he has the case, doesn't mean he'll win the title. Someone has to lose eventually, right?

I agree Swagger was a "failed" cash-in, and I can't help but agree that if Riley won the belt, it'd be the same. As it stands now, that is. There's always a chance he'll balloon into something we can't even imagine yet, and be successful at the top. Or, he can cash it in, lose, and it becomes a moot point.

 

[IrishCanadian25]

Miz is a great heel and one of the best champions we've seen in a while

LOL ARE YOU FUCKING ******ED

miz title reign was soooo boring.....all it was was him coming out saying hes awesome and must see. Him cheating to beat orton and cena.

they waste all this time trying to shove miz down our throats by having him promo agaisnt rocky and beat cena at mania (dity victory agen)

now they realize after there lowest ppv buys ever that nobody cares about the miz.
That is why he is jobbing to a ry now.

Because hes boring and sux.

So dont ever say he was one of th best champs again.

Dumbass.

Now as for the topic, Barret has a very good chance or cody maybe. Nobody else has a chance.

FOr raw Swagger A ry or maaaybe del rio but del rio is inthe same boat as shamous they dont need to win the mitb to become champ.

The MITB is used t elvate someone who isnt quite reasdy yet but could be in 3-12 months.

I'm sorry but I forgot to mention an "unwritten rule." Don't come into my thread and insult the people who post in it unless you yourself can post above a 2nd grade reading level.

For starters, Miz IS a great heel and WAS one of the better champions in recent history. There's a damn good reason his reigns were picked up by other media outlets, and it wasn't just his prior work on MTV. The guy used every single day away from the ring to do promos, meet reporters, talk on the radio, etc. He worked as hard as Cena does and earned a ton of respect for it.

Second, he cheated to beat Orton and Cena because...wait for it...HE'S A BAD GUY! A HEEL! THAT'S WHAT THEY DO!

Third, Miz isn't "jobbing" to A-Ri now, he is putting him over like a veteran. The fact that WWE trusts Miz to be responsible for A-Ri's first big push shows you how much they trust him.

Finally, is "not ready but could be ready in 3-6 months" what you'd say about Kane last year? Or Punk's 2nd win? No? That's because the MITB is a great storyline enhancer, and isn't restricted to ONLY giving young guys a future shot. And as most of the participants have never been world champ, this year's PPV should accomplish both tasks.

 

[The Champ]

Nice article man, and I agree with most of it, including your top three picks to win each MITB match.

I do think you ranked Riley a little low considering how hard he's being pushed right now. Sure, he's not all that polished yet, but WWE seems to making the commitment to making this big a big star, much more so than an Evan Bourne or a Jack Swagger, both of whom have been floating around in the midcard for ages. I think Riley is certainly more likely to win than Bourne, and maybe Swagger too.

I would offer similar sentiments about Sin Cara on SmackDown; they're grooming this guy to be the next Rey Mysterio, and thus I think he has more of a shot at winning than someone like Bryan. They obviously see potential in Bryan but are hesitant because he doesn't have the same overness, and in WWE that matters more than anything, including experience and technical skills.

But that's just some nitpicking of a very good list of picks. Del Rio is very likely to win the Raw MITB, which could potentially play a factor in the main event if Punk ends up winning. This is the first time I've seen one of your articles, and I enjoyed it and look forward to reading your next one.

 

[Nate DaMac]

I don't know man. Sheamus and Del Rio seem like the front runners, but when do those people actually win? Honestly, MITB matches have quite the history of giving us winners that were generally unexpected. Who really had Kane winning, or Swagger, or Punk twice?

Something tells me that we're going to get at least one shocker. Maybe not as shocking as Heath Slater or Justin Gabriel winning, but maybe they'll give the Raw briefcase to Alex Riley? Or maybe the internet explodes when Daniel Bryan gets the briefcase on Smackdown? I think Nick presented a scenario where Christian wins the title from Orton only to have the MITB winner cash in immediately afterward, further pissing Christian off and adding to his character. Is there a more perfect option than DB to do such a thing? It would be awesome, I know I'd mark the fuck out.

Also, KB pointed out the wording of the Raw ending promo last night and that really got me thinking. Notice Vince said that if Punk leaves Chicago with the title that Cena will be fired. Well if Cena loses but someone cashes in afterward, Cena has a loophole, no?

One thing is for certain; this PPV has been built up very well and I haven't been this inclined to purchase a non WM PPV in a very long time. I hope it delivers.

 

[oldhamandy1]

The Raw one is so hard to call, I'm impressed you were able to put numbers to it. I think the Cena/Punk match is the biggest bearing on this, Vince McMahon's old self may just come out to play. I forsee a Punk win with Vince leading out the MITB winner and forcing him to cash it in. This whole thing is leading to something huge, like full on massive, a return of the corporation perhaps? Who would lead this, as champion? It could be any but Kofi, Bourne and Rey, I would also rulle out Truth because of his unstablity. That leaves Del Rio, The Miz, Riley (early turn) or Swagger.

Smackdown I would plump for Barrett but I am biased, he comes the same area as me and thus gets my vote for any match.

 

[Theo Mays]

Great article IC. For the SD side of things I pretty much agree with the top three guys. Sheamus, Rhodes, and Barrett are the clear cut guys to win this thing. I'd say it even narrows down moreso to Sheamus and Rhodes. Barrett has had his shots and nothing ever really came of it. I know Sheamus has been champ before, but he has this intensity in him right now to become champion again and it has been great. We all know what Rhodes is capable and I could really seem him doing good things building up to his eventual cash in.

Now onto Raw. It is pretty much one giant clusterfuck. There is really no clear cut winner and with ADR winning the number one contender match, who is to say he doesn't get himself thrown in with Punk and Cena. I do believe he'll end up back in the MITB match and is the favorite either way. As for everyone else it is a toss up. I think you can pretty much toss Bourne and Swagger out the window and how did Ziggler not get in this match? I get in his promo he said he wanted to make the US title the most important one, so I guess chasing the WWE title makes that point oblivious. None of the others guys would really surprise me. And if Punk wins the title at MITB, I expect the Raw winner to cash in. Which is way it wouldn't be too shocking to see a face like Mysterio or even Kingston cash in and win. Raw's is way up in the air as anyone not named Bourne or Swagger could walk away with this thing.

 

[DecayNYFX]

I would flip if Alex Riley won, because it would absolutely drive The Miz batshit crazy, and Michael Cole as well. But I've also seen a lot of failed MITB cash ins - Swagger being chief among them - and I seriously doubt WWE wants to take that big of a risk again.

I couldn't agree more. I've got a strong feeling, just like many others, that Del Rio's gonna take it, but out of all of them, I'd like to see A-Ry win it, partly for that very reason. I think if he does, he should hang on to it for a while, maybe make him the first MITB winner to wait the full year to cash it in, because we haven't seen that yet, and within that time, he's bound to improve both in the ring & on the mic. That's what I'd like to see.

What I have a sinking suspicion that we WILL see, is Del Rio winning the brief case, Cena dropping the title to Punk, and Del Rio cashing it in immediately afterwards, saving Vince from "embarrassment" by preventing Punk from leaving with it. Not to mention saving Cena's job in the process - - Remember, Vince's exact wording was "if Punk walks out with that title..." - - Can you IMAGINE how badly Del Rio would rub that in Cena's face week in & week out? And this would ultimately set up their rumored match at Summerslam.

As for Smackdown, I agree that Sheamus & Cody don't necessarily need the brief case to get a shot at the title because of the tremendous heat they've built for themselves. Of course, I expect one of them to win it though. Of all the guys involved there, I think Barrett is the one that would benefit most from getting it though, because right now, he doesn't have much heat behind him, and I wouldn't call his feud with Zeke a major one. He's a good all-around performer, he just needs something good to work with, and getting the win at MITB would be just that.

Great article, thanks for sharing your views!

 

[Captain Morgan Freeman]

Great thread IC. I agree with the smackdown predictions and i feel sheamus has the best chance of winning on the blue brand and cashing in striaght after the Orton/Christian match. While i feel Barret and Cody have great futures they will have to wait a litlle longer for their chance.

Like has been said many times already the Raw money in the bank match is anyones guess. But i was thinking about how predictable the money in the bank title shot has become. Getting the money in the bank briefcase pretty much guarantees you a world title as thus far no money in the bank title shot has ended in the champion retaining the title.
This made me think of the following angle that could happen on raw. Imagine if Alex Riley was to win the briefcase, granted as Bill deMott would say "hes as green as goose shit" but it would really enhance the Miz/Riley feud. Riley could go around with the briefcase talking about how he will be a better champion then The Miz ever was. Then as when Riley goes to cash in we could see The Miz running in beating up Riley and throwing the current champ(Cena/Punk) on top of Riley thus continuing on the Miz/Riley feud and also having the champion retain the title at a money in the bank title shot for once.

Or they could just ignore all that and give the briefcase to Del Rio. But that makes the recent Number one contender match on raw pointless though.

 

[FightOwensFight]

As far as Smackdown! goes, I think the biggest determinent on who will win is how the Champtionship match goes. I know the MITB match will likely already have happened but bear with me. If Christian beats Orton, I could easily see Sheamus being the one holding the briefcase and as Nate said, cashing in right away and taking the belt off Christian, causing him to completley flip out. If Orton wins I think Sheamus steps into the # 1 Contender spot by default and doesn't need the briefcase at all. It looks to me like Cody is being build up very naturally and is having good matches at the mid-card level, so I really see Barrett stepping in and taking the case of it isn't Sheamus.

For Raw, I am in line with everyone else. It is really tough to call. If they want to continue the consipracy storyline with Truth they could have him win the case, and be the first person to not cash it in successfully. It does look like Del Rio is the likely choice, but I have not been overly impressed with the reactions he has been getting so not sure how thrilled I would be if that happens, especially if the result is the "cop out" of having Punk beat Cena only to lose to Del Rio the same night so all is right with the world. That being said, if I had to bet I would say Del Rio is the favorite, but I would like to see Alex Riley win it and hold it for a while and continue his feud with The Miz through SummerSlam (maybe have a match at SummerSlam where the briefcase is on the line).

 

[JGlass]

Even though IC has already made this fool look like just that times one-thousand, I figured I'd throw in my two cents as well.

Miz is a great heel and one of the best champions we've seen in a while

Is what I said yes.

LOL ARE YOU FUCKING ******ED

Little boys should not throw stones at glass houses, especially little boys with horrible writing skills.

miz title reign was soooo boring.....all it was was him coming out saying hes awesome and must see. Him cheating to beat orton and cena.

Boring? He had great matches with John Morrison, Randy Orton, John Cena, and Jerry Lawler. That's right, he put on a great show with a 61 year old man. And since when is a heel cheating to win a bad thing? Ric Flair would knife edge chop your head off for making such an idiotic statement.

they waste all this time trying to shove miz down our throats by having him promo agaisnt rocky and beat cena at mania (dity victory agen)

What were you watching? Because what I saw was The Miz keeping up with two of the best mic men in the history of professional wrestling. No, Miz was not on the same level as Rock or Cena, but he didn't look like a total ass next to these guys either.

now they realize after there lowest ppv buys ever that nobody cares about the miz.
That is why he is jobbing to a ry now.

Um, this year's WrestleMania had over one million buys and was main evented by The Miz. A lot of those buys came from Rock's involvement in the event, but people wouldn't have bought the event if they weren't interested in The Miz at all.

And since when is losing twice considered jobbing? It's clearly a storyline as Miz is still featured on every episode of Raw. The WWE is trusting Miz with putting over a guy they see playing a big role in WWE's future. That's a HUGE responsibility and they trust Miz to do it. It's not just a job, it's an honor.

Because hes boring and sux.

The Raw live audiences say otherwise.

So dont ever say he was one of th best champs again.

Dumbass.

I'm sorry sir, but it is you who is the dumb ass.

 

[mrpops]

Technically Mr kennedy didnt cash it in successfully. Just thought i would point that out. Winning a "Money in the bank briefcase" is simply "winning a contract for a wwe title shot". Kennedy won the contract...but never "cashed in".

So in away he lost...

Think about the FACTS....

Ken kennedy wins the money in the bank contract, but never wins the title. So screw you to those that say everyone who wins money in the bank wins the title. Simple as that.

As for the odds....i pretty much agree with all of it. It makes sense. But WWE NEVER makes sense. They NEVER give us what we want. They force us to like new things. So i expect R truth/evan borne to win and random no name smackdown superstar to win.

I couldnt even list the smackdown stars in the match and i just read the thread LOL. Who are these no names?

EDIT: Re-read the first page. That no name heath slater wendys guy will win it. /thread

 

[Wade's Public Transit Bomb]

I am still waiting for a response as to why Cody would be considered a contender to win when he hasn't been someone that they have featured in predominate inter-brand or multi-man matches. The last few he was featured in was prolly do to body count (Even Tyler Reks made it to the Survivor Series match) or where to job (everyone jobs to Orton ). You can say what you want about the character work all you want, but the WWE's booking is obvious to a T when it comes to who they choose to showcase.

I do think having two MiTB matches last year could be indicative of how they want to use them. One guy was a former champion who won to boost his relevancy (Kane). The other was a guy they talked up until his win and even then still had to booked him like a super credible guy (The Miz).

Wade is still my SD pick, but I could easily see Sheamus going the Kane route. And if Del Rio doesn't fit what they did for the Miz last year, I don't know who does.

 

[cm ben]

OK, I have a question. Assuming that this "loop-hole" thing happens, in which Punk wins, but is cashed in on, allowing both the WWE title and Cena to remain with the company, would it make more sense for a heel or a face to do the cashing-in?

On one hand, the PPV is in Chicago, CM Punk's hometown, so, although he's clearly the heel in the match, it's unclear whether he will be a heel that particular night... I could definitely see this being an event where the commentators have to work their hardest to portray Cena as the face. Therefore, having a heel cash in on CM Punk might garner the appropriate negative response from the audience. Alberto del Rio, for instance, might be instantly hated by thousands for cashing in on the hometown hero.

On the other hand, maybe there will be enough Cena fans in attendance for a face to effectively cash in. Let's say Kofi wins it, quickly Trouble in Paradise's CM Punk and celebrates with a still-hired Cena to end the PPV. That seems pretty plausible to me, actually... as for the fallout, Cena could be momentarily out of the title picture, and Kofi could feud with (and probably eventually lose to) Alberto del Rio; or we could see a new double-face feud between Kofi-Cena.

Any thoughts?

By the way, I have nosebleed seats to this event, and I am sooooo pumped!

 

[FSWWE]

Good article IC25. First I need to say that I am more excited for the SmackDown MITB, just because all the mid-cards with high potential are there and my pick is definitely going to Wade Barrett - I'm pretty sure that Heath Slater and Justin Gabriel will screw him at the beginning-middle of the match, but he can easily end up winning it. Still for SD! MITB I'm not sure, but after the rip of the contract last Friday, I think that Sheamus will be added to the main event match, and just because that the Christian vs Orton match is again a simple single match, so I can easily say that they will add Sheamus, and he totally destroyed them last SD! so he will be replaced for Ted DiBiase or Mahal, well if they put Mahal there he will be the wild card, if they put DiBiase the result will be Cody Rhodes winning it.

Looking for RAW MITB, I don't like anyone to hold the briefcase just because 2 of them don't need the win (The Miz and ADR), 4 are completely bland (Evan Bourne, Kofi Kingston, A-Ry (really a lift ddt as a finisher?) and Rey Mysterio) so it leads me to R-Truth and Swagger to hold the briefcase which sucks by the way and if I had to chose any of them I would want to see Swagger holding it, and lets face it the kid needs more credit, true he had an awful title reign but he wasn't ready and they made him the crappiest promos that you can have, nobody cares about his family and how he turned All American American, it wasn't his fault, but he had good matches, he won against Randy Orton cleanly for Christ Sake, he "kayfabe" injured Rey Mysterio and The Big Show which is always very good.

*Random thought*
Please what they really need to make is making Dolph Ziggler attack Kofi Kingston, inserts himself into the match and winning it!!

 

[JGlass]

I am still waiting for a response as to why Cody would be considered a contender to win when he hasn't been someone that they have featured in predominate inter-brand or multi-man matches. The last few he was featured in was prolly do to body count (Even Tyler Reks made it to the Survivor Series match) or where to job (everyone jobs to Orton ). You can say what you want about the character work all you want, but the WWE's booking is obvious to a T when it comes to who they choose to showcase.

Look at the past winners, almost none of them were big time featured stars. A few had been in the main event, and most were knocking at the door, but very few were actually being featured the way you suggest the winner should be (though I don't understand why being in multi-man or inter-brand matches makes one more likely to win the briefcase).

1) Edge- He was knocking at the door after being pushed strongly following his return and having a feud with Shawn Michaels. He wasn't even close to a main eventer, though.

2) Rob Van Dam- While certainly a crowd favorite and a main eventer in ECW, Van Dam was not a main eventer in the WWE. He was featured quite often on the midcard, but that's about it.

3) Mr. Kennedy- Kennedy was a standout when he won the Money in the Bank briefcase, but he really hadn't feuded with the major WWE players yet.

4 and 5) CM Punk- Punk had danced with the big boys before his first win, albeit briefly when he competed at SummerSlam with Team Dx and wrestled in the MitB Ladder Match at WrestleMania 23.

6) Jack Swagger- Perhaps you'll argue that Swagger had no right being the briefcase winner, and perhaps you are right. Swagger's reign was underwhelming, but he was chosen by the WWE to win it. Swagger had little experience in the areas you sighted, but he was a former ECW World Champion.

7) Kane- Kane had been featured on Smackdown, but not really in the main event. He did have experience in the areas you mentioned though, and how.

8) Miz- It seems odd to say it now, but before Miz won that briefcase he was sort of a drifter in terms of places on the card. He had a lot of tag team success and his fair share of midcard success, but he had never been a big part of the main event, and certainly was not one of the guys that was featured constantly on inter-brand matches.

So I hope that somewhat answers you question. I still don't understand why wrestling inter-brand matches or even multi-man matches should have any effect on how likely someone is to win the briefcase, though.

 

[CMZombie]

An excellent review, thanks.

Maybe I'm over thinking this but I feel a swerve or two is yet to come for MitB, on both the main fight pictures.

The SD contract was not signed by Christian, and Sheamus tore it up, so I agree that its a very real possibility that he is promoted to the main event to triple threat it. His replacement in the ladder match?

Mark Henry.

He's had the push, the talk has been of a possible title-run as a thankyou for his years, and this could be the way to give it to him. That's my out-there theory. If that's completely off base, then I think it will be Barrett that takes the case. I can't fault your odds and reasonings though.

For RAW, A-Ry and Kofi would both be intriguing winners, but I agree that Del Rio is the safe bet. Any swerve yet to land on the RAW side will focus on the title event I believe and whether or not the case gets cashed in that night.

Good discussion though.

 

[Jack-Hammer]

Good article, as usual, and I'm pretty much in agreement with the MITB odds. When I first saw the wrestlers announced for the MITB matches, I immediately gravitated to Del Rio & Sheamus.

When it comes to Del Rio, I think the guy has main event written all over him. He's got the tools inside the ring, he's got them on the mic, he's generated great heat from the crowd since he showed up on SD! about 10 months ago and he's loaded with charisma. Del Rio is someone that a lot of people have just wondered exactly when, rather than if, WWE is gonna pull the trigger and put a World Title on him. With all this stuff surrounding CM Punk, however, I can honestly say I'm no longer sure about Del Rio winning. He's still the odds on favorite in my eyes but with Punk's future being up in the air, it makes me wonder. I know that there was a statement by WWE saying that Punk's leaving isn't part of a storyline and that his contract wouldn't be "immediately renewed". We live in a world of technicalities and in my job, I see people that are placed in prison for 10-20 years due to legal technicalities all the time. Punk's contract might not be "immediately renewed" but that can merely be viewed as him taking time off for a while. Also, it's entirely possible that a contract won't be "renewed" but rather Punk could have a new contract that contains provisions, greater money, more perks, etc. that weren't part of his last deal with WWE. If Del Rio wins MITB, I don't think we'll be seeing Punk in WWE for a while at least.

When it comes to Sheamus, I think he's shown a lot of people that he belongs in the main event picture. When he came out of nowhere to beat John Cena for the WWE Championship more than a year and a half ago, some people were in an uproar. The IWC downright hated the guy on the spot without even giving him a chance. However, I've seen a lot of people converted into Sheamus fans because I think it's pretty clear he's got the stuff. Since going to SD!, he's gotten back on track. His feud with Christian & Orton has shown all three of them to be doing some of the best work of their careers and Sheamus looks like he belongs there. He no longer has the air of a guy that's been thrust into a position that he may not have been ready for but rather as someone that belongs in the WHC picture.

As far as the dark horses of the matches go, I'm actually leaning towards R-Truth and Daniel Bryan. I think they've gone a few steps in the wrong direction with Truth in terms of the comedic aspect of his character. I'd like to see him become a more menacing figure like we saw early on and still get glimpses off. You know, like when he took out John Morrison. I think they've ultimately gone as far as they can with "Little Jimmy" and Truth talking to himself. I think it's been pretty entertaining overall, but it'll be run into the ground if that aspect goes on much longer.

As far as Daniel Bryan goes, it's more of a feeling I have than anything else. Since coming to SD!, Bryan has been steadily heading in the right direction and seems to gain a little more momentum as each week goes by. With the exception of Sheamus, Sin Cara is really the only guy in the match that I think has had more momentum on the blue brand than Bryan. Bryan has lost matches to both of them, though the matches were hard fought and competitive and his loss to Cara did come about partially due to outside interference. Wade Barrett is someone that's floundered some since coming to SD!. His IC title run was nothing to write home about and he's been on a losing streak for weeks. Having him win MITB at this point without being built back up with some momentum on his side would just be pretty underwhelming. Kane's always a solid bet but there just isn't that sense that he's going to repeat. Slater & Gabriel have virtually no chance but could jack their stock up big time with solid performances. Cody Rhodes seems to be steadily chug-a-lugging along. He & Bryan have had a decent feud, both have wins over the other, but I find myself wondering if Cody Rhodes won't be fueding with Ezekiel Jackson for the IC title considering his win over Big Zeke last Friday. As for Sin Cara, the guy's generally too hit & miss at this point. I do enjoy seeing his work but he's just not all that consistent at this point and the fact that he can barely speak English is something that I think will have to be addressed before WWE puts him in a main event picture. Sheamus is the clear favorite and I do pick him to win it, but I will be keeping an eye on Daniel Bryan as there could easily be an unexpected win in one of these matches.

 

[Wade's Public Transit Bomb]

So I hope that somewhat answers you question. I still don't understand why wrestling inter-brand matches or even multi-man matches should have any effect on how likely someone is to win the briefcase, though.

Maybe I should've been a little less when I said that. But in recent years, they only put guys they want to showcase in big inter-brand and mutli-man matches. Cody wasn't involved in the Elimination Chamber. He didn't do so well in the Rumble. Cody didn't have a match at TLC. I don't even know if most remember he was in the Survivor Series match last year.

You can say it was because he was still developing a character or that he had a feud going on already; but The Miz, Truth, Rey Mysterio, Kane, Sheamus, and Wade Barrett have all found their way onto a Elimination Chamber or bazillion-man clusterfuck. All Cody has done, if he is apart of those matches, is add body count. They don't have many of these kind of matches, you know.


And has everyone forgotten he started feuding with Zeke?