This is what should happen, Punk wins (maybe even the Nexus get involved), Barrett cashes in... Barrett goes over Punk, have the Nexus Corre join (I know they disbanded, I'm just saying, that would be bad ass to have the two join together). They have the power of the Tag, and WWE title. Then they just bully for a while with no John Cena in sight.
This isn't going to happen and I've seen in mentioned at least twice in this thread. The "rules" changed with last year's Money In The Bank PPV. The red case is for the WWE Championship and the blue case is for the World Heavyweight Championship. Plain and simple. A SmackDown superstar isn't going to cash in on Punk and vice versa.
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As for what will happen: It's anyone's guess - which makes MITB well worth the buy.
My gut feeling is CM Punk isn't going anywhere and even if he takes time off of TV, he'll still be contracted to the WWE because he has already in fact re-signed.
There are too many factors for a prediction.
- IF Punk has re-signed, it is very plausible that one of the agreements/compromises was for him to become WWE Champion in the calendar year. Cena even went on record in the past saying he'd be fine with dropping the strap if it helped re-sign Punk.
- Cena has well known nagging injuries. Time off between now and WM28 is a very real possibility. Personally, I don't think this would happen before Summer Slam, but it's possible.
- There were early reports of the WWE looking to get The Rock involved in some capacity with Summer Slam. This would be hard to do if Cena is "fired" and not appearing on TV - but not impossible.
- The Raw Money In The Bank case winner. The biggest unknown variable of all. The ultimate "X Factor." Because of this, it is truly impossible to predict.
My biggest issue is, IF Punk becomes the WWE Champion and Cena IS fired/takes time off - who challenges Punk at Summer Slam? And after that? Raw is incredibly heel heavy. After Cena, who's next? Rey Mysterio? The Big Show? Alex Riley? Kofi Kingston? (You see the problem here).
Now, unless Hunter is expecting to dust off his boots or Y2J is coming to save us from Rey Mysterio being in the main event - you got a big problem if Cena is about to go into time off.