I see no real point to this match. While I think it has the potential to be good, I'm not very anxious at all to see it happen. Samoa Joe is a shadow of what he used to be and Lashley is still the limited, strong as an ox powerhouse that he's always been.
On the surface, Lashley is probably the favorite here. TNA has plugged the shit out of the guy for some reason. Stories are going around that Dixie Carter has finally figured out that, for all intents and purposes, TNA is something to give Lashley a paycheck in between MMA fights. Apparently, she's now realized that there may be extended periods of time he'll be gone from TNA in order to prepare for fights. I'd say that Lashley takes a fair amount of flack from the MMA world for his continued involvement in pro wrestling and losing in a submission match to a professional wrestler would only increase that flack. Joe is just stale, tired and boring as hell. I have no real reason to want to watch the guy compete but TNA still pushes him.
I just don't think Joe will wind up beating Lashley. Joe, in many ways, has just seemed to be going steadily downhill for a while now and a loss for him in this situation just won't hurt quite as much. Lashley losing in a submission pro wrestling match will make him look bad to a lot within the MMA crowd and that's who Lashley ultimately cares for more I believe.