Do you have a source on what TNA's biggest TV deal is, or how many of them there are?
Larry Csonka, 411mania. Obviously the question is how does he know, but there's the link anyway.
The call for a source is normally valid, but, c'mon, consider the subject of discussion here. A privately owned company led by a woman with a reputation for lying about the condition of her professional wrestling business. We are pretty much guaranteed to be working with very few solid facts here. (That the Sony Six deal is not 'new' money open to pleasure expenditure is one of them.)
It's not new money, but it's close to guaranteed money. If you're holding TNA IOUs and trying to figure out how much you can recoup and how, you *might* be willing to pay for some tapings in December, or at least sign off on some other dumb bastard lending TNA money for some tapings in December, so that TNA doesn't default on the TV contracts and lose the Sony Six and Challenge TV money. Then when the international checks come in move for a forced bankruptcy.
I'm basically saying that the Sony Six deal, plus whatever Challenge is paying, is by far the lions' share of TNA's annual revenue. And for the creditors to get back a single dime, those international checks have to come in. And for those checks to come in, there has to be either TV taped or tapings scheduled for January's Impacts and an ONO. And somebody's going to have to pay for that to happen.
So we have to use round numbers, speculate based on what we know, and take our estimations into account when reviewing our analysis. Hence how we end up with a very large band of $40-60m, which is based upon TNA having 10% of their yearly revenue in debt (a frequent threshold for legal action, as it's usually a Point of No Return).
You're using the 10% debt-to-revenue benchmark. I respect that, but I disagree in this case. Because TNA's finances are so opaque, and because they've never been a well-oiled machine financially, I think Dixie Carter gave the creditors a false picture of TNA's financial status. And I suspect that Aroluxe and the Harris Brothers allowed TNA to run up unwise levels of debt to Aroluxe in order to coerce a sale to Aroluxe.
In the last post, I sketched out why I really don't believe that TNA makes more than $20M a year in revenue. And I suspect it's a lot closer to $10M. Consider what TNA's expenses are, now that they've shed any talent that was making more than the minimum, and ask yourself--if TNA were booking $30M a year in revenue, why wouldn't they have paid Audience of One, the Tennessee revenooers, American Express Travel, etc?
I think it's fair to assume that Corgan told the New York Post the $40M value and $20M revenue numbers, and that Corgan got the $20M number from Dixie and her CFO. I can't imagine the real number is *larger* than that. I can easily imagine it being half that, though.
It's no longer the case that they don't pay their bills because the money is going to Hogan/Sting/Angle/JWoww/etc or because they're losing tons of money taking Impact on the road. They don't pay their bills because they just aren't bringing in that much money.
