Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.6%

[LSN80]

A nice number, for sure. But it's not as cut and dry as it seems.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...e-falls-to-86-percent-lowest-since-march-200/

On first glance, this would seem to be a great piece of news for the Obama administration, one to certainly hand their hat on. After all, this number reflects the lowest rate we've seen from our country in two and a half years. It's also down from 9.1 percent in October, and the lowest since March 2009. Further, the Department of Labor and Industry is reporting that 120,000 people have gained employment within the past month- A very high number. But with caution, the Department of L & I also is reporting the following:

A key reason for the sharp drop is that hundreds of thousands of people had stopped looking for work. The report showed 487,000 people left the labor force in November. For our purposes(L & I), they were not counted as unemployed.

So in breaking this down, 120,000 jobs were gained within the past month. But on the other hand, four times that number are no longer working, or have stopped looking for work. For whatever reason, that number does not count against the numbers for the Department of Labor and Industry, which explains the sharp decline in the official unemployment rate. But to the rest of us, we would be foolish not to take these numbers into account when determining the validity of the unemployment rate. So given this information, how much of a success is the "steep" drop in the UC rate?

The rest of the article touches on things currently being debated in Congress regarding extensions on payroll tax cuts and unemployment aide. One would think that on the surface, the news of the this significant drop would assist Congress in reaching an agreement on these two items(tax cuts, unemployment aide). Still, progress on either issue have been largely unsuccessful. Looking at this further, even Republicans such as Mitt Romney have noted being pleased with the drop in the unemployment rate, although he strongly notes there is more work to be done.

"The drop to 8.6 percent is good news. At the same time, the rate is still too high, and reflects a level of joblessness I will never accept.The rate has been over 8 percent for nearly three years, which is far too high for far too long."

President Obama said the following regarding the drop in Unemployment rate:

"This is a great first step, but we can't be satisfied. We need to keep that growth going. Further, we need to be cautious about reading too much into one report, as we need to see sustained growth. Failure to settle either issue regarding extensions of payroll tax cuts or unemployment aide would be a significant blow to our economy."

My biggest question to the President at this point would be how he plans to keep the growth growing. President Obama, what is your plan regarding the extensions of payroll tax cuts and extending Unemployment aide that is so vital?

In essence,the heart of Obama's ideals consists of the following 400 billion dollar plan:

:Extending, by one more year, a payroll tax cut for workers that went into effect this year. The president wants the payroll tax, which raises money for Social Security, to stay at 4.2 percent rather than kick back up to 6.2 percent.
:Seeking continued unemployment aid for millions of people receiving extended benefits. That program, too, is set to expire at year's end.

These are the two issues that have been presented to Congress, but have been met with stiff operation. Despite being re-structured with much compromise, these issues have been rejected thusfar. Obama has stressed that one of, if not the most important tenants of the legislation, is to assist the long-term unemployed, both through financial aide, and assistance in helping to get them to be apart of the work force once again. It should also be noted that the economy has grown at an average of of 143,000 net jobs per month for the past three months. That's a sharp increase from the prior three months, when job growth averaged just 84,000 per month.

Much more is enclosed within the report, and I encourage you to read this. But to end, with the presidential election less then a year away,Obama is in a position where he will go to the polls facing voters with the highest unemployment rate of any president since World War II.


How much of the unemployment rate do you believe is a reflection on President Obama? Conversely, how much do you believe the American people will hold him responsible for this rate?


How much stock do you put into the unemployment drop to 8.6%, the lowest in over two years?


Thoughts on Obama's current plans with regards to fixing the economy?

Any other thoughts/discussion regarding this topic are welcome and highly encouraged!

 

[Davi323]

487,000? The article I saw only claimed 315,000 dropped off the books. Yikes. Either way, the "drop" in unemployment rate is built on creative accounting, nothing more.

Also from the article:

More than half the jobs added were by retailers, restaurants and bars, a sign that holiday hiring has kicked in.

That means that as soon as the holidays are over, those people hired will be fired again. Seasonal hiring is by it's very nature, temporary. Any change in a positive direction during the holidays will be negated by the cutbacks after the holidays, when those employees are no longer needed. IE, any drop in the unemployment rate due to seasonal work is ultimately meaningless, because it will be undone a month from now...

How much of the unemployment rate do you believe is a reflection on President Obama? Conversely, how much do you believe the American people will hold him responsible for this rate?
The unemployment rate goes back to the tail end of the Bush Administration, something I am sure that the liberal posters on Wrestlezone will not hesitate to point out. However, he has been President for almost 3 years now, and the economy has gotten worse. The American people will hold him responsible. Whether it's truly deserved or not doesn't even really matter. People blame the guy in charge when things go wrong, just like they give credit to the guy in charge when things are going well. I think does deserve at least as much of the blame as Bush does, if not more. A lot of our economic problems stemmed from the crash in the housing market because of conditions enabled by Democratic Congresses pushing through irresponsible mortgage "reforms" for the past decade and a half.

How much stock do you put into the unemployment drop to 8.6%, the lowest in over two years?
None whatsoever. As soon as anyone realizes that the numbers are based on intentionally incomplete information, it's hard to take them seriously. When you can only claim the unemployment rate dropped because you stopped counting people, it's a joke.

Thoughts on Obama's current plans with regards to fixing the economy?
He has plans? (Other than do nothing, watch it get worse, and continue to blame everyone but himself, I mean)

 

[Mustang Sally]

Thoughts on Obama's current plans with regards to fixing the economy?
He has plans?

Why anyone would want to be a politician on a national level escapes me. Yes, I understand the answer is "power" but it's such a fruitless pursuit if you're really looking to do good.

Yes, Obama has plans but he starts out knowing that Republicans will automatically oppose anything he comes up with......just as Democrats will oppose everything a Republican administration proposes. I'm trying to remember the name of the Republican Senator who announced a few months ago he was making it his mission to vote against any action proposed by President Obama, because he wanted his party in power after the next election. Presumably, this means that even if the proposal by Obama would benefit the country, this guy will try to defeat it because it's a Democratic initiative. Terrific, huh?

Yes, partisan politics has existed since the country was formed, but it's grown so nauseatingly out of control that I wonder how anything gets done today.

And so, the economy flounders on. Factors like unemployment and inflation have traditionally run in cycles, with the party in power delighted to take credit when positive results arise. But this recent drop in the unemployment rate might not be a "start" toward recovery as much as a slight tick in the creative accounting the government uses to compile these statistics.

I still wonder where they find the 487,000 people who are supposedly saying they've given up on finding a job and have removed themselves from the workforce. Who called all of them and how did they get these folks to respond with such candor?

Eventually, the good economy will come back, if for no other reason than it always has. If not, then I guess Karl Marx was right about why capitalism could never work in the long run. Personally, I think he was wrong.

 

[Davi323]

Why anyone would want to be a politician on a national level escapes me. Yes, I understand the answer is "power" but it's such a fruitless pursuit if you're really looking to do good.

I actually completely agree with this. Frankly, the amount of shit you get, the whining and complaining no matter what you do, just isn't worth it. Why would anyone WANT to be President? Even if it's a power trip, it can only last 8 years at the max...what happens when it's over? If politicians love getting high on the power while in office, imagine the crash once they aren't in office any more...No thanks.

 

[X]

Davi323 touched on this nicely, but I'll add my two cents.

This is nothing. At all. This might give your typical Democratic voter a minor smile over their morning paper, but that's about it. Unemployment typically always falls into the fall/winter holiday season because of the demand for seasonal workers to help out during the busiest shopping and consuming seasons of the year. All of those workers are usually just seasonal though, and will be gone by January-March. So while it's nice that some people got some work for the winter, it always is, it's not indicative of any kind of declining trend in unemployment or a recovering economy. It just means it's Christmas-time again. Excuse me if I don't pop out the champagne yet.

 

[George Steele's Barber]

I think this group is being too negative. Obama is cautiously optimistic in his comments but I think he takes the right tact. Few people are getting overly excited by this. No one is stupid enough to brag about unemployment in the 8's. The best news in all of this is that October jobs report has been revised up an additional 70,000 and 9 to 8.6 is a move in the right direction. The news from the Central Banks helping the Eurozone is good to hear and the record Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending as well.

Obama doesn't have a chance at reinvigorating our economy. The payroll tax cut is about as far as he can take it since that additional couple of thousand a worker can keep is likely to go back to Consumption part of GDP. Congress controls the purse strings and the Republicans have maintained the Tea Party mantra of stopping spending if it comes from the Dems.

I think Obama is a smart decent man. He has made mistakes but I don't hold him in my top 20 peoples and institutions to blame for our economic troubles.

Sally - I'm not sure of a senator said this recently but Mitch McConnell from KY, the Republican minority leader in the Senate said something along the lines that his number one priority in 2010 was getting Obama out of office. It was a poor choice of words at a time when our economy is in the shits.

 

[X]

I think this group is being too negative. Obama is cautiously optimistic in his comments but I think he takes the right tact. Few people are getting overly excited by this. No one is stupid enough to brag about unemployment in the 8's. The best news in all of this is that October jobs report has been revised up an additional 70,000 and 9 to 8.6 is a move in the right direction. The news from the Central Banks helping the Eurozone is good to hear and the record Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending as well.

Two quick things man.

1) We have every right to be negative. Our country's economy is literally the worst it's been in decades, and congress, the senate, and the President are all doing little to nothing to address the actual underlying issues that caused this economic collapse in the first place. Instead they're content to put tiny little Band-Aids on some dying industries while the economy as a whole is rotting away from the inside because of the inherently disgusting and greedy nature of runaway capitalism gone amok in the financial sector. A corporation has more rights than I do right now as a damn human being.

2) Black Friday/Cyber Sunday spending will do almost nothing to help the economy, and this urban myth that spending shitloads of money on material goods sold by international corporations will somehow provide a shot in the arm to the economy is tired and old. If you want to do something that might actually help your own local economy, spend all of that Black Friday money on a local small business, not sending hundreds/thousands of dollars to flippin' Amazon.

I think Obama is a smart decent man. He has made mistakes but I don't hold him in my top 20 peoples and institutions to blame for our economic troubles.

I don't think anyone is blaming Obama for our economic crisis, and if you are, you're just dumb. But he's the damn President, it's his job to try and improve the situation he's handed, no matter how shitty. I can't say Obama has improved much for our country, apart from eventually getting us out of Iraq. And the saddest part is that I voted for him, and I plan to vote for him again regardless of all of that, because that's how shitty our current pool of Democratic and Republican candidates for President in 2012 is.

Sally - I'm not sure of a senator said this recently but Mitch McConnell from KY, the Republican minority leader in the Senate said something along the lines that his number one priority in 2010 was getting Obama out of office. It was a poor choice of words at a time when our economy is in the shits.

While I agree that McConnell and the GOP's strategy of just putting their fingers in their eyes, screaming "LA LA LA LA I can't hear you, deny deny deny!" at everything Obama tries to pass or do is beyond stupid and damaging at a terrible time for our country, this petty partisanship and finger-pointing game, which I assure you is done just as much by the Dems as it is by the GOP, solves even less and leads us to these bullshit situations in the first place. Partisanship has basically killed this country, or atleast badly wounded it to a point where I'm not sure we can ever improve things again.

 

[LSN80]

Im glad I brought this one up, I almost skipped right by it, to be honest. The conversation generated by it has been excellent, thusfar. Hopefully I can add to it.

1) We have every right to be negative. Our country's economy is literally the worst it's been in decades, and congress, the senate, and the President are all doing little to nothing to address the actual underlying issues that caused this economic collapse in the first place. Instead they're content to put tiny little Band-Aids on some dying industries while the economy as a whole is rotting away from the inside because of the inherently disgusting and greedy nature of runaway capitalism gone amok in the financial sector. A corporation has more rights than I do right now as a damn human being.

The right to be negative? Absolutely. Sometimes, negativity if directed the right way by enough people can bring about change. But in my experience, those instances are few and far between. Unfortunately, I believe our leaders share this same viewpoint. They spend more time being negative and complaining about the sake of our economy, all-the-while ignoring any and all opportunities to make things better. As a deeply involved citizen myself, I attempt to be positive, but it's quite hard with the current state, especially watching some government rejoice over what amounts to nothing more then inflated numbers due to holiday hirings.

Instead they're content to put tiny little Band-Aids on some dying industries while the economy as a whole is rotting away from the inside because of the inherently disgusting and greedy nature of runaway capitalism gone amok in the financial sector. A corporation has more rights than I do right now as a damn human being.

a

This I really want to touch on. These bandaids involve extensions, instead of permanent solutions. While I believe it's a necessity and a positive thing to extend Unemployment Benefits to those in need, what we're seeing is these people receiving extensions instead of a permanent solution being put into place. So while those receiving benefits are out of work, they truly are completely unaware of what will happen next in terms of support. As you said, it's a bandaid for a flawed system with no consistency whatsoever. If our economy is truly going to improve, consistency is a must. Our flawed unemployment system is just one area in need of this.

2) Black Friday/Cyber Sunday spending will do almost nothing to help the economy, and this urban myth that spending shitloads of money on material goods sold by international corporations will somehow provide a shot in the arm to the economy is tired and old. If you want to do something that might actually help your own local economy, spend all of that Black Friday money on a local small business, not sending hundreds/thousands of dollars to flippin' Amazon.

Point taken, but how much would this even benefit the economy? Even if more people did spend locally, how much of a difference would this make? Very little. In the end, people are going to do what they believe is inherently best for themselves, and that's to go where the deals are. Traditionally, small local businesses can't afford to compete with major companies such as Best Buy or Walmart price-wise because they need to sell at certain prices to stay afloat. So I can't find much fault in the person who shops on EBay or Amazon if they're getting deals, especially in this economy.

I don't think anyone is blaming Obama for our economic crisis, and if you are, you're just dumb. But he's the damn President, it's his job to try and improve the situation he's handed, no matter how shitty. I can't say Obama has improved much for our country, apart from eventually getting us out of Iraq. And the saddest part is that I voted for him, and I plan to vote for him again regardless of all of that, because that's how shitty our current pool of Democratic and Republican candidates for President in 2012 is.

And in the end, the result is going to be that Obama will enter voting in less then a year with the highest Unemployment Rate since World War 2. Whether we like it or not, people are going to see this as a direct reflection on him, and his "failures" with regards to the economy. I don't believe it matters who's in office, I don't think things would be much different in either direction. And I think we'll see the same in four years as well, be it with Obama at the helm, or a Republican representative.Until those in office get on the same page rather then trying to sabotage one another, does it truly matter who you vote for? Both parties are equally at fault when it comes to pointing fingers, and until people are willing to compromise and put egos aside, nothing will change. Sadly, it's us, the common people, who will be the ones to suffer most the longer the bickering and undermining goes on.

 

[TWJC: The Beginning]

there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy. Banks are holding 10 times the amount of capital as before the crisis, money is there to loan. Companies are holding billions of dollars (a piece) in capital, money is there to expand. they are just scared. Scared that everything will fall apart again. It's going to take people getting over the fear for the economy to start up. Could have had anyone in the White House and it wouldn't have changed.

Personally, I think "cautiously optimistic" is the right words to use.

The unemployment rate isn't much of a reflection because, as I said, it's people's fear, not any policy that's causing our slow growth. think about the great depression, my great grandma died never using a bank after. It's that kind of fear. Also, if you study the great depression, growth after was slow (fear) until something shook them out of their fear (WW2).

the unemployment drop is good because at least it's not growing. I'm not putting a lot of stock in it. I'm just praying to God that the christian extremists go away. Their beliefs, both economically and personally, could really fuck us up.

Obama's current plans don't mean anything if Republicans keep digging their heels in. They didn't want socialized health care. Basically saying "no, I want people to have to chose between dying and thousands of dollars in debt". If they wouldn't want something that, iunno, seems like a pretty fuckin good idea when pharmaceuticals price gouge, they sure as hell don't want anything else he tries to pass. This "socialist this" adn "socialist that" propaganda the conservatives push is mccarthism-esque in it's witch hunt mentality. If you enjoy navigable roads, public schools, police, firemen, and affordable universities, you have to admit that socialist ideas do have some merit. Of course, all the conservatives, more importantly, the tea party nuts, were born with silver spoons and can afford all of this "on their own".

I kinda ranted a little but I really can't stand conservatives and their selfishness and endless supply of bad ideas based on subjective argument.


People expected obama to magically fix everything. Howoever, when literally all the republicans have done is dig their heels in, it's hard to do. Not only that, but there is a theory that once a conservative gets elected, these companies (who the republicans favor, as well as the rich people who run them) will start spending money. The american people think "o wow these guys are good". Conservatives don't want smaller government, they just want it to take the form of corporations.