Turd Ferguson
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Main Card (PPV)
- Heavyweight Championship: Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
- Heavyweight Bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
- Heavyweight Bout: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
- Heavyweight Bout: Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic
- Heavyweight Bout: Mark Hunt vs. Stefan Struve
- Featherweight Bout: Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins
- Lightweight Bout: Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner
- Middleweight Bout: Jason "Mayhem" Miller vs. CB Dollaway
- Lightweight Bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass
- Welterweight Bout: Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig
- Light Heavyweight Bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixiera
- Featherweight Bout: Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda
UFC 146 is a card that has been decimated by injuries. Despite this, it is still a strong card, and top to bottom, between the main card, FX Prelims, and Facebook Prelims, is a definite must-watch.
In the main event, Junior Dos Santos will defend the Heavyweight title against Frank Mir. It's definitely not as sexy a matchup that Dos Santos vs. Overeem would have been, and in my point of view, it's an easier fight to predict. I think Mir's only shot here is if he gets JDS to the ground. JDS is still untested there, and Mir is without a doubt, the most dangerous submission specialist in the history of the Heavyweight Division. Of course, he might not even get the chance to get JDS to the ground. Mir doesn't have much of a chin, getting nearly KO'ed by a Nogueira jab in his last fight. All it takes is one punch from JDS to end your night. Frank Mir definitely earned this shot over anyone else in the division, but the fact of the matter is that this is probably going to be a short night for him. Dos Santos will pick up another win, but part of me really wants Mir to pull it off somehow, just to keep things interesting. If Dos Santos wins, he'll likely get the winner of Velasquez vs. Bigfoot (Velasquez) and Dos Santos vs. Velasquez II is a hard sell. It really is unfortunate that Overeem was stupid enough to get caught.
Cain Velasquez vs. Bigfoot Silva is your co-main event. Ho-Hum, Bigfoot Silva blows and this is a fight to basically re-establish Velasquez as a force in the Heavyweight Division. I really don't see any avenues for Silva to win... there's no chance in hell he's going to get Velasquez to the ground and impose his will on him like he did to Fedor. Velasquez by TKO and we'll get a rematch between him and JDS later this year.
Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman should be a pretty entertaining fight between two guys who are in pretty sore need of a win. Very even matchup. I think if Herman can goad Nelson into a sloppy kickboxing fight, I'd give him the advantage, and I think he could even get the finish. Roy has taken a lot of damage in his losses to JDS, Mir, and Werdum. Even though his chin hasn't failed him yet, you also have to wonder how much it has deteriorated with the damage he has taken in those fights. Herman definitely has the ability to catch Nelson, and I think there's a pretty decent chance he can do so here.
Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic pits two of the top prospects in the Heavyweight Division against each other. Both are undefeated. Del Rosario is coming off a long layoff due to a car accident he was in. Should be a great fight, both guys are finishers. One has to wonder how the layoff will affect Del Rosario, though.
Finally, in the fight I'm most looking forward to on the main card, Mark Hunt continues his career renaissance vs. Stefan Struve. This is your Fight of the Night and KO of the night candidate right here. Mark Hunt needs to win this fight in the first round in order to stand a chance. Struve is prone to getting finished in the first round, (look no further than his losses to JDS, Nelson, and Travis Browne, and almost losing to Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle). Struve is seemingly unbeatable after the first round, and the longer the fight goes, the more likely it is for Hunt to gas out and get submitted. Problem is for Struve is that despite being quite excellent at submissions, he likes to get into kickboxing matches, which is terrible for him when he doesn't know how to use his reach and all it takes is one punch for him to get Jenga'ed. I think Struve will get goaded into trading with Hunt, because good god, is he stupid, and I think we'll get a hysterical looking KO as Hunt becomes one step closer to getting a title shot.
The FX prelims should be very entertaining. Diego Brandao is in his first post-TUF fight against Darren Elkins in which should be an exciting fight.
Edson Barboza is fighting Jamie Varner, who inexplicably got a second chance from Dana due to Evan Dunham getting hurt. At least Barboza will kick his head off, but a win over a shitty fighter like Varner doesn't do much for him.
Mayhem Miller is putting his career on the line against CB Dollaway. CB is pretty terrible, so Mayhem should get the win here by submission, but if Dollaway does pull off the win, then yes, Mayhem, the overrated wonder that he is, should never fight again.
Finally, Jacob Volkmann, who is quietly putting together a strong run undefeated as a lightweight (the reason for his run being quiet is the fact that he keeps calling out the President of the United States......) is taking on one of my favorite fighters in the Lightweight Division, Paul Sass. Sass does one thing and one thing only, Triangles. He's undefeated, and this should be a very interesting fight where Volkmann will look to impose a Jon Fitch-esque strategy, whereas Sass will be constantly looking for the submission. The last time Sass fought a wrestler, it was Michael Johnson, in which he caught him in a leglock, but these matchups usually go to the wrestler, especially where Sass is British, and we all know how that usually plays out.
The Facebook prelims feature three fights that I think would have been much better fits for the main card of the UFC on Fuel this month rather than being banished to Facebook where nobody will watch.
Dan Hardy is in an absolute must-win situation against Duane Ludwig. Hardy has dropped four in a row. However, there is no shame in losing four in a row, when two of those losses were to the Champions of the Division (GSP and Condit), a goddamn Light Heavyweight (Anthony Johnson) and Chris Lytle. Ludwig is coming off a loss to Josh Neer. This should be a very good fight regardless and it's way too good to be banished to the Facebook prelims. I'm not sure if Hardy can get back on the horse here. This is going to be a standup affair, and Ludwig, with the kickboxing background, is a much better striker than Hardy, who throws bombs. I think Ludwig takes it by decision, and that's when things will get real interesting, to see if Hardy will survive the chopping block with 5 losses in a row.
Glover Teixiera makes his UFC debut against Kyle Kingsbury. Teixiera has been murdering folks for some time, undefeated in his last 15 fights, with 14 stoppages. I'm not sure what we have with Kingsbury here at this point. He's talented, but he looked like absolute crap against Stephan Bonnar in his last fight.
Finally, Mike Brown will look to keep his positive momentum going against a very tough Daniel Pineda. Brown looked very good against Nam Phan in his last fight where he finally got back on the winning side of things. Pineda is a finisher. Should be a great fight.