I see this ending in a DQ win for RVD, and him retaining the belt. Matt Morgan has just returned at Joey Ryan's side, for reasons yet to be explained. We know why he's returned, but his siding with Ryan has yet to be explained, at least to my knowledge.
I don't understand RVD holding the strap in the first place, and while I thought he'ld do something to help prop the division up, that's yet to materialize. He wasn't even on the go-home show for Turning Point, while Morgan and Ryan were, at least in the aspect that Morgan was banned from being in Ryan's corner. Still, I expect a Morgan run-in, a DQ, and the Ryan storyline to continue, at least until he takes the strap from RVD.
RVD is floundering badly in TNA. He's still capable of putting on good matches, and does from time-to-time, but it's been some time since he's been involved in a storyline of some kind. There's been a storyline with Ryan for months now, with Morgan recently included in it. Him gaining the strap would further that storyline, but I don't expect TNA to take the strap off of RVD so soon. He'll retain at Turning Point, likely by DQ, but I expect Ryan to gain the title eventually, if for nothing more then to further the Ryan/Morgan/Hogan storyline.