Obama Vs Romney. Full State by State predictions.

[ryan86]

This will bore 98% of the forum, but for the 2% who are intellectuals like myself, you might enjoy it.

Romney (10-25% Wins):

WV / AL / TX / AK / SD / ID
OK / KY / NE / MS / WY / AL
UT / GA / TN / KS / SC / LA
ND / MT

This puts Romney at 159 ECV of the 270 needed.

Obama (10-25% wins):

CA / WA / DC / CT / IL / NY
VT / MA / NJ / RI / HI / DE
MD

This puts Obama at 175 ECV of the 270 needed.

Romney (wins by 5-9%)

AZ / IN / MO

Romney at 182 ECV

Obama (5-9% wins)

IA / ME / MI / NM / NV / MN / OR

Obama at 228 ECV

Toss-up states: (1-4% wins)

CO (Romney by 3%)
FL (Romney by 2%)
NH (Obama by 4%)
NC (Obama by 1%)
OH (Romney by 2%)
PA (Obama by 4%)
VA (Obama by 3%)
WI (Obama by 4%)

This moves the ECV to:

Obama: 270
Romney: 258

And the winner of the 2012 Election: Obama.

Those are my predictions.

 

[klunderbunker]

Um, duh?

 

[ryan86]

Um, duh?

Hey, I put a lot of work into that post. Seriously! Predicting the automatic states would be a "Duh", But getting down to the closer ones; like the 5-9% win catagory, or the 1-4% toss-ups, might interest poli sci majors like myself. Also, Predicting toss-ups takes some thought and the counting of the ECV takes some effort.

God KB, I put a lot of work into that. Did you want me to go into state-by-state breakdowns of strategic voting blocks? I can even go further in disecting distric breakdowns, like the I-4 quaradore/Tampa area in florida that has desided every Florida winner since the 1964 voting rights act, signed by Jhonson. Which flipped the entire south from Blue to Red in every election since. Does that mean D's went to R's for racist reasons? You see how man questions I can open up KB? You really want me to go there?

 

[George Steele's Barber]

Are these real poll numbers or just your predictions? Because polling is fine but there is a big difference between answering a polling question and dragging your ass to the polls on election day.

Try digging deeper by age group, race and annual income and then apply probabiliites to those groups actually making it to the polls.

At this point I think Obama will win too but he has a lot of pandering to do.

 

[Gelgarin]

Polyethylene is the most widely used plastic worldwide, with an annual production of approximately 80 million metric tons. The thermoplastic is classified into several different categories based mostly on its density and branching. The mechanical properties of PE depend significantly on variables such as the extent and type of branching, the crystal structure and the molecular weight. With regard to sold volumes, the most important polyethylene grades are HDPE, LLDPE and LDPE.

Recycling information in place of actual intelligence since 2007.

 

[klunderbunker]

Hey, I put a lot of work into that post. Seriously! Predicting the automatic states would be a "Duh", But getting down to the closer ones; like the 5-9% win catagory, or the 1-4% toss-ups, might interest poli sci majors like myself. Also, Predicting toss-ups takes some thought and the counting of the ECV takes some effort.

God KB, I put a lot of work into that. Did you want me to go into state-by-state breakdowns of strategic voting blocks? I can even go further in disecting distric breakdowns, like the I-4 quaradore/Tampa area in florida that has desided every Florida winner since the 1964 voting rights act, signed by Jhonson. Which flipped the entire south from Blue to Red in every election since. Does that mean D's went to R's for racist reasons? You see how man questions I can open up KB? You really want me to go there?

Or you could just use common sense and realize that none of the current GOP candidates stand anything better than a long shot chance against Obama. Or you could just use common sense and realize that Romney isn't a guarantee to be the nominee yet.

 

[ryan86]

Or you could just use common sense and realize that none of the current GOP candidates stand anything better than a long shot chance against Obama. Or you could just use common sense and realize that Romney isn't a guarantee to be the nominee yet.

This is a combinaton of polling/prediction/and common scence.

I already made a thread showing Romney's path to the nomination. U could use some common scence and realize that the top 2 contenders to Romney have no path. Newt has tanked and cant even get the organization needed to get on the VA ballot. And Ron Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee. Every common scence in the world tells you that. And I guess the Whitehouse isn't using common scence in preparing to run against Romney. You do know the Obama team is preparing for Romney right? Why are you even putting me down... We are on the same side!!!!! And my ass is doing more than voting, i am a volunteer organizer for the Dallas area DNC.

 

[Gelgarin]

I think I have a new favourite prisoner.

Sorry Jenks.

 

[klunderbunker]

This is a combinaton of polling/prediction/and common scence.

I already made a thread showing Romney's path to the nomination. U could use some common scence and realize that the top 2 contenders to Romney have no path. Newt has tanked and cant even get the organization needed to get on the VA ballot. And Ron Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee. Every common scence in the world tells you that. And I guess the Whitehouse isn't using common scence in preparing to run against Romney. You do know the Obama team is preparing for Romney right? Why are you even putting me down... We are on the same side!!!!! And my ass is doing more than voting, i am a volunteer organizer for the Dallas area DNC.

Again:

Um...duh?

Anybody that even has a small interest and/or knowledge of politics would be able to say all this. I watch the MSNBC nightly lineup and could tell you all this.

 

[ryan86]

Again:

Um...duh?

Anybody that even has a small interest and/or knowledge of politics would be able to say all this. I watch the MSNBC nightly lineup and could tell you all this.

You see KB, I told you we ARE MUCH MORE alike than you thought!

I watch the nightly MSNBC line-up as well. Rachael Maddow is my Favorite but I really admire Chris Mathews. I am inlove with "inside-game" politics, and if you want that fix, Hardball is the place. And Edd is great. His nick-names for people get me laughing (the tan man and slant face, LOL) and his scarcasmn is really entertaining.

Dont care much for "The Last Word". O'donnel (SP?) is to much of a Clinton hater and I was also a devoted volunteer for her '08 texas primary durring her run (WHICH SHE WON!!!!) She won my state 53-47%.

Kum-by-ya KB!!!!!!! sing it with me! come on... you can do it!

 

[Harthan]

You're presuming that Romney is even going to win the nomination, which, given Ron Paul's current poll numbers, is far from certain.

 

[klunderbunker]

You see KB, I told you we ARE MUCH MORE alike than you thought!

I watch the nightly MSNBC line-up as well. Rachael Maddow is my Favorite but I really admire Chris Mathews. I am inlove with "inside-game" politics, and if you want that fix, Hardball is the place. And Edd is great. His nick-names for people get me laughing (the tan man and slant face, LOL) and his scarcasmn is really entertaining.

Dont care much for "The Last Word". O'donnel (SP?) is to much of a Clinton hater and I was also a devoted volunteer for her '08 texas primary durring her run (WHICH SHE WON!!!!) She won my state 53-47%.

Kum-by-ya KB!!!!!!! sing it with me! come on... you can do it!

I'll cum by you. If you're rough enough of course.

 

[klunderbunker]

You're presuming that Romney is even going to win the nomination, which, given Ron Paul's current poll numbers, is far from certain.

Free poli sci lesson for you buddy: poll numbers in December mean about as much about who is winning anything as my reviews do on the gross domestic product of Uzbekistan.

 

[ryan86]

I'll cum by you. If you're rough enough of course.

THAT IS A HILARIOUS COMEBACK!!!!

I AM GOING TO QUOTE THAT FOR MY NEW SIG!!!!!!

Along with my super extra cool pic of Cody!.... of course that is when-ever i get out of here... which is probably never.

 

[Gelgarin]

Is this sarcasm?

 

[klunderbunker]

Is this sarcasm?

Is what sarcasm?

 

[Harthan]

Free poli sci lesson for you buddy: poll numbers in December mean about as much about who is winning anything as my reviews do on the gross domestic product of Uzbekistan.

I understand the political system well enough, KB. My only point is that Romney is hardly running away with it and it isn't a fair assumption on anyone's part to say that Romney will have the nomination.

 

[klunderbunker]

I understand the political system well enough, KB. My only point is that Romney is hardly running away with it and it isn't a fair assumption on anyone's part to say that Romney will have the nomination.

To say the least. There are probably 4 candidates with a shot and at least 5 with a miracle chance at it. Of the 6 main candidates, only Bachmann probably is out of it.

 

[Harthan]

To say the least. There are probably 4 candidates with a shot and at least 5 with a miracle chance at it. Of the 6 main candidates, only Bachmann probably is out of it.

Thank Satan for that, am I right?

Bitch would have fucked up all my sacrificial rituals.

 

[Gelgarin]

Is what sarcasm?

This guy's posts. I'm not sure I've ever seen a person make the transition from 'I am an intellectual on a higher plane of thinking' to 'twenty-five exclamation marks' in such a short space of time. I was questioning if piss was being taken.

 

[ryan86]

I'll cum by you. If you're rough enough of course.

No scarcasmn. I find KB's humor entertaining. and even though our conversations have been some-what of a love-hate thing (i love him while he hates me) i still respect the hell out of his knowlege and shared love of politics.

 

[ryan86]

I understand the political system well enough, KB. My only point is that Romney is hardly running away with it and it isn't a fair assumption on anyone's part to say that Romney will have the nomination.

You may understand "emotion politics" but you obviously dont understand the legistics needed to be a presidental nominee. Mitt is the only one with organization and money to go past florida into super tuesday. Out-side super pacs can help but mitt has them all locked up.

 

[klunderbunker]

You may understand "emotion politics" but you obviously dont understand the legistics needed to be a presidental nominee. Mitt is the only one with organization and money to go past florida into super tuesday. Out-side super pacs can help but mitt has them all locked up.

You mean the kind he had four years ago, before citizens united and the rise of the Tea Party fanatics that HATE Romney? It's not as cut and dry as you're making it out to be.

 

[Harthan]

You may understand "emotion politics" but you obviously dont understand the legistics needed to be a presidental nominee. Mitt is the only one with organization and money to go past florida into super tuesday. Out-side super pacs can help but mitt has them all locked up.

I have trouble taking advice on logistics from a person who cannot spell the word correctly.

Imagine that I am a doctor, and I'm prescribing you medication for pneumonia, only on the prescription I write "4 numonya". Would you trust me?

 

[Goliath Uterus]

This will bore 98% of the forum, but for the 2% who are intellectuals like myself, you might enjoy it.

LOL