The I quit aspect is the only thing that makes this match remotely interesting, in terms of predicting who will win.
Tommy Dreamer doesnt win matches. He lose extreme rules matches, regular matches, submission matches, and retirement matches. Tommy has been booked for years as enhanement, for putting people over. And hes done a great job at it. But other then his token win at Extreme Rules 09, he simply doesnt win.
I think the key here is the way Tommy is portrayed. Tommys portrayed as the never say die warrior who bleeds and keeps coming back for more. Its hard to imagine Tommy uttering the words "i quit". AJ, on the other hand, has done a great job of playing the chickenshit heel known for hit and runs since Fortune has begun. I could easily seeing him quit if he gets busted open too badly.
The other key is the credibility of EV2. If they plan on extending the angle for any amount of time, they need credibility, desperately. To gain that credibility, they actually need to win a match! I dont think they have since arriving in TNA. As their leader, Deamer needs to be the one to give them that much needed credibility. Dreamer in an upset.