It's that time again. One of my favorite days of the year. It's MLB Hall of Fame day. Today the class of 2016 was announced so I will attempt to sound smart and give my annual analysis for the few who care to read it. One thing worth mentioning is around one hundred voters were eliminated this year. I think it showed in the results, and while things still didn't turn out like I hoped they would I found some of the results encouraging. Eliminating those voters has made a difference. Let's get to it.
The Electees
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mike Piazza
I would have voted for a lot more than two guys but if you take a look at my thread from November you'll see while my hopes were wrong my predictions were right. I was hardly going out on a limb though. Surprisingly Ken Griffey Jr. is the first ever #1 overall pick to be elected to the HOF. Not so surprisingly Mike Piazza is the first ever #1390 overall pick to be elected to the HOF. That's quite a gap between the first round and the 62nd round but they're both ending up in the same place.
What really surprised me, and this goes back to so many voters being eliminated, was how close Griffey got to 100%. 99.3% is a new record and he was only three votes shy of unanimous selection. I gave up on the idea of a guy ever getting 100% a long time ago. So many people deserved it but no one ever got it. 99.3% makes me think maybe it will happen someday. I think the next guy that has a chance will be Derek Jeter a few years from now. It's safe to say Griffey will go in as a Mariner making him the first player in the HOF to wear the Seattle cap. Half of his career was plagued with injuries resulting in some mediocre years but Junior was so good in Seattle in the 90s he could have retired at 30 and been a first ballot hall of famer. He defined baseball in the 90s.
I'm glad Piazza finally got in. This gives hope to some others that may be suspected of PED use and gets a name off the crowded ballot so maybe other deserving players can get some votes. I wonder if he goes in as a Dodger or a Met. It's a coin toss for me. He was with the Mets longer and kind of became a celebrity off the diamond while in New York. However, it was his Godfather Tommy Lasorda that gave Piazza a chance with that 62nd round pick, and I think he was at his absolute best as a Dodger. I think Piazza may have left LA on bad terms but I'm not sure how much truth there is to that and if those fences have been mended by now. We'll find out soon enough.
On The Cusp
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Trevor Hoffman
71.6% for Bagwell. This is a great sign. There are some good names on the ballot for the first time next year but none of them are a slam dunk first ballot guys. Factor that in with Piazza's election this year and I think it's safe to say Bagwell gets in next year.
Raines got a nice boost up to 69.8%. He's getting awfully close and while I never looked at him as a hall of famer, and wouldn't vote for him, his supporters have to feel good about his chances next year.
Hoffman got 67.3% on his first year on the ballot. I think Hoffman will get in very soon. I thought some might hold off on voting him in until Mariano Rivera gets in. It shouldn't matter who gets in first but some voters are funny that way.
By the way, a player needs 75% to get in.
Progress
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Edgar Martinez
I would vote for all these guys except Edgar. He was a favorite of mine but I don't see Edgar as a HOFer. Obviously Bonds and Clemens should be in and we know why they're not so I won't spend much time on that. They both got a nice increase but still have a way to go. For the first time I feel like they at least have hope. Last year I said Schilling and Mussina were lost in the pitcher shuffle with Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Unit, and Pedro all getting in the past two years. I predicted their votes would go up significantly and they did. It probably won't be next year but I think they will both get in eventually. Mussina went from 24.6% to 43%. That's a great jump for one year.
Not Looking Good
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
Lee Smith
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Gary Sheffield
Jeff Kent
Billy Wagner
These guys are still on the ballot but are all under 21% except for Lee Smith. Smith is at 34.1% but next year is his last year. He's not getting in. McGwire and Sosa are not making the progress that Bonds and Clemens are. Granted they're not as good but they're all kind of tied together. They don't have that glimmer of hope Bonds and Clemens got today. I briefly considered Billy Wagner but I just don't see it. He was a great relief pitcher and some say comparable to Hoffman but he just doesn't stand out to me like Hoffman did. I'm actually glad Kent receives so little support. When he first came on the ballot I thought he had a shot but I don't think he belongs. I hate the argument about his offensive numbers and 2B. He didn't stand out as a defender at 2B and if you look at his offensive numbers and put them on some at 1B or the outfield they're not HOF numbers. Very good but not HOF. Fred McGriff is the guy I fight for every year. He got a nice bump but is still far away from election. I've accepted he'll never get voted in by the writers. Maybe the veterans committee. Sheffield will be my next McGriff, a guy I think should be in but gets barely any support. I guess there is some PED speculation with him but why is he 60% below Bagwell? I'm a huge Larry Walker fan. I go back and forth on him and really want to talk myself into calling him a HOFer but if I'm honest I leave him off my nonexistent ballot.
Goodbye
This was Alan Trammel's last year on the ballot. I like Trammel but I'm glad he's off the ballot. I don't see him as a HOFer and now his votes can go elsewhere. There I go getting my hopes up for McGriff again.
The Carlos Delgado Snub
Last year I was shocked when Carlos Delgado did not even get the minimum 5% to stay on the ballot. This year I'm equally shocked Jim Edmonds fell below that number. My instinct is to say Edmonds is not a hall of famer. He has very good offensive numbers. Not enough for the HOF but combine that with his spectacular defense and I thought he was worth consideration. Truthfully he's probably not a HOFer so why keep him on the ballot, but I was very surprised to see him as a one and done. Andruw Jones is probably disappointed by it too.
Next Year
Ivan Rodriguez
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Jorge Posada
These are the notable first ballot names next year. I would vote for the first three but I'm not confident in any of them, at least on the first ballot. I don't see Posada getting close but I thought he was worth mentioning as he was a key part of that Yankee dynasty. Bernie Williams and Paul O'neill didn't get any support so I don't think that's going to help him much but it might keep him on the ballot. Pudge is a no brainer to me but I guess people are a little suspicious of him too. He gets in eventually but maybe not next year. There's more than suspicion with Manny so he won't get in. Vlad is interesting to me. I see him as a HOFer but I'm not sure what to think after Delgado fell off. Vlad was better than Delgado so I expect him to get a lot more support but will he get in? I have a feeling he'll be a second or third ballot HOFer.
That's my breakdown. What did you think? How do you feel about those that got in and even more interesting how do you feel about those that were left out?
The Electees
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mike Piazza
I would have voted for a lot more than two guys but if you take a look at my thread from November you'll see while my hopes were wrong my predictions were right. I was hardly going out on a limb though. Surprisingly Ken Griffey Jr. is the first ever #1 overall pick to be elected to the HOF. Not so surprisingly Mike Piazza is the first ever #1390 overall pick to be elected to the HOF. That's quite a gap between the first round and the 62nd round but they're both ending up in the same place.
What really surprised me, and this goes back to so many voters being eliminated, was how close Griffey got to 100%. 99.3% is a new record and he was only three votes shy of unanimous selection. I gave up on the idea of a guy ever getting 100% a long time ago. So many people deserved it but no one ever got it. 99.3% makes me think maybe it will happen someday. I think the next guy that has a chance will be Derek Jeter a few years from now. It's safe to say Griffey will go in as a Mariner making him the first player in the HOF to wear the Seattle cap. Half of his career was plagued with injuries resulting in some mediocre years but Junior was so good in Seattle in the 90s he could have retired at 30 and been a first ballot hall of famer. He defined baseball in the 90s.
I'm glad Piazza finally got in. This gives hope to some others that may be suspected of PED use and gets a name off the crowded ballot so maybe other deserving players can get some votes. I wonder if he goes in as a Dodger or a Met. It's a coin toss for me. He was with the Mets longer and kind of became a celebrity off the diamond while in New York. However, it was his Godfather Tommy Lasorda that gave Piazza a chance with that 62nd round pick, and I think he was at his absolute best as a Dodger. I think Piazza may have left LA on bad terms but I'm not sure how much truth there is to that and if those fences have been mended by now. We'll find out soon enough.
On The Cusp
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Trevor Hoffman
71.6% for Bagwell. This is a great sign. There are some good names on the ballot for the first time next year but none of them are a slam dunk first ballot guys. Factor that in with Piazza's election this year and I think it's safe to say Bagwell gets in next year.
Raines got a nice boost up to 69.8%. He's getting awfully close and while I never looked at him as a hall of famer, and wouldn't vote for him, his supporters have to feel good about his chances next year.
Hoffman got 67.3% on his first year on the ballot. I think Hoffman will get in very soon. I thought some might hold off on voting him in until Mariano Rivera gets in. It shouldn't matter who gets in first but some voters are funny that way.
By the way, a player needs 75% to get in.
Progress
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Edgar Martinez
I would vote for all these guys except Edgar. He was a favorite of mine but I don't see Edgar as a HOFer. Obviously Bonds and Clemens should be in and we know why they're not so I won't spend much time on that. They both got a nice increase but still have a way to go. For the first time I feel like they at least have hope. Last year I said Schilling and Mussina were lost in the pitcher shuffle with Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Unit, and Pedro all getting in the past two years. I predicted their votes would go up significantly and they did. It probably won't be next year but I think they will both get in eventually. Mussina went from 24.6% to 43%. That's a great jump for one year.
Not Looking Good
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
Lee Smith
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Gary Sheffield
Jeff Kent
Billy Wagner
These guys are still on the ballot but are all under 21% except for Lee Smith. Smith is at 34.1% but next year is his last year. He's not getting in. McGwire and Sosa are not making the progress that Bonds and Clemens are. Granted they're not as good but they're all kind of tied together. They don't have that glimmer of hope Bonds and Clemens got today. I briefly considered Billy Wagner but I just don't see it. He was a great relief pitcher and some say comparable to Hoffman but he just doesn't stand out to me like Hoffman did. I'm actually glad Kent receives so little support. When he first came on the ballot I thought he had a shot but I don't think he belongs. I hate the argument about his offensive numbers and 2B. He didn't stand out as a defender at 2B and if you look at his offensive numbers and put them on some at 1B or the outfield they're not HOF numbers. Very good but not HOF. Fred McGriff is the guy I fight for every year. He got a nice bump but is still far away from election. I've accepted he'll never get voted in by the writers. Maybe the veterans committee. Sheffield will be my next McGriff, a guy I think should be in but gets barely any support. I guess there is some PED speculation with him but why is he 60% below Bagwell? I'm a huge Larry Walker fan. I go back and forth on him and really want to talk myself into calling him a HOFer but if I'm honest I leave him off my nonexistent ballot.
Goodbye
This was Alan Trammel's last year on the ballot. I like Trammel but I'm glad he's off the ballot. I don't see him as a HOFer and now his votes can go elsewhere. There I go getting my hopes up for McGriff again.
The Carlos Delgado Snub
Last year I was shocked when Carlos Delgado did not even get the minimum 5% to stay on the ballot. This year I'm equally shocked Jim Edmonds fell below that number. My instinct is to say Edmonds is not a hall of famer. He has very good offensive numbers. Not enough for the HOF but combine that with his spectacular defense and I thought he was worth consideration. Truthfully he's probably not a HOFer so why keep him on the ballot, but I was very surprised to see him as a one and done. Andruw Jones is probably disappointed by it too.
Next Year
Ivan Rodriguez
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Jorge Posada
These are the notable first ballot names next year. I would vote for the first three but I'm not confident in any of them, at least on the first ballot. I don't see Posada getting close but I thought he was worth mentioning as he was a key part of that Yankee dynasty. Bernie Williams and Paul O'neill didn't get any support so I don't think that's going to help him much but it might keep him on the ballot. Pudge is a no brainer to me but I guess people are a little suspicious of him too. He gets in eventually but maybe not next year. There's more than suspicion with Manny so he won't get in. Vlad is interesting to me. I see him as a HOFer but I'm not sure what to think after Delgado fell off. Vlad was better than Delgado so I expect him to get a lot more support but will he get in? I have a feeling he'll be a second or third ballot HOFer.
That's my breakdown. What did you think? How do you feel about those that got in and even more interesting how do you feel about those that were left out?
