2016 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

[The Brain]

It's that time of year again. The MLB Hall of Fame ballot for 2016 was released today. The results will be announced on January 6 and I plan on creating a more detailed thread that day to analyze everything, but in the meantime let's take a look at the ballot and make some predictions. Here's the ballot.

First time candidates:

Ken Griffey Jr.
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Jim Edmonds
Jason Kendall
Garret Anderson
Troy Glaus
Mike Hampton
Luis Castillo
Randy Winn
Mike Lowell
Mark Grudzielanek
David Eckstein
Brad Ausmus
Mike Sweeney

Returning Candidates: *( ) = % from last year; { } = year on ballot

Mike Piazza (69.9) {4}
Jeff Bagwell (55.7) {6}
Tim Raines (55) {9}
Curt Schilling (39.2) {4}
Roger Clemens (37.5) {4}
Barry Bonds (36.8) {4}
Lee Smith (30.2) {14}
Edgar Martinez (27) {7}
Alan Trammell (25.1) {15}
Mike Mussina (24.6) {3}
Jeff Kent (14) {3}
Fred McGriff (12.9) {7}
Larry Walker (11.8) {6}
Gary Sheffield (11.7) {2}
Mark McGwire (10) {10}
Sammy Sosa (6.6) {4}
Nomar Garciaparra (5.5) {2}

First I should note that this is the final year Alan Trammell will be on the ballot. Also thanks to the HOF's decision to try to ignore certain players this will be Mark McGwire's final year on the ballot.

I have two questions for this thread. Who would you vote for to go in the HOF, and who do you think will go into the HOF? You are limited to ten choices for each question.

My ballot would read as follows

Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa, Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina

For those unfamiliar with my annual thread, I never used to come close to using all ten votes. I used to vote for three, maybe four guys a year. Since the writers started blackballing certain people a few years ago my ballot has become much more crowded.

Griffey is a no brainer. He's going in and I don't think I need to explain why. Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Piazza, Bagwell, and possibly Sheffield are among those being blackballed. I'm not sure where people stand on Sheffield but his lack of support last year compared to his career accomplishments suggest to me that he's being lumped in with the steroid guys. McGriff never gets his deserved support and I'm not sure why. I've learned my lesson by now. The Fabulous Freebirds aren't going in the WWE HOF and Fred McGriff isn't going in the MLB HOF, but I think he should. I expect Schilling and Mussina to both take significant steps forward. The past two years have been pitching heavy. With Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Johnson, and Martinez all on the ballot it was easy to look past Schilling and Mussina. Now that all those guys are in the other two will get more attention. I expect Schilling to get in eventually but not this year. I have a feeling Mussina will be one of those guys that gets in around his last year on the ballot.

Honorable mentions

I think Trevor Hoffman belongs in the HOF. I would have him on my ballot if there was room. I don't think the writers are going to put him in on the first ballot. A lot of them are funny that way and instead of voting for someone to go in the HOF they have reasons for deciding when they go in the HOF. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them wait until Mariano Rivera goes in before voting Hoffman in. It's just the way some of them think.

Jim Edmonds might be the most interesting guy on the ballot. If you ask me to give you an immediate answer based on my gut feeling I would say Edmonds is not a hall of famer. When you actually take a look at his numbers it's not so open and shut. The key to Edmonds is his defense. He has great offensive numbers but in my opinion not good enough for the HOF. However, once you factor in the defense and all the Gold Gloves he might be worthy. I wouldn't vote for him right now and I don't think he'll get in this year but I am very interested to see what kind of support he gets.

Billy Wagner was a great relief pitcher. I think he'll get enough votes to remain on the ballot but I don't think he's ever going in. With a specialty position like closer you have to be the absolute elite and for that era I think only Hoffman and Rivera are getting in. I like Garret Anderson and always thought he was underrated but even I admit he's nowhere near a hall of famer. He probably won't get the 5% needed to return to the ballot next year. Great player though so I just wanted to mention his name because even though he won't be back he's certainly better than the rest of the pack that won't be back.

I think the actual results will read as follows

Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza

As I said, Griffey is a no brainer. I think we can all agree on that. I think Piazza finally gets in this year. He was only 5% short last year and the first timers aren't as strong as they have been the past couple years. Piazza gets in this year and maybe opens the door for Bagwell next year.

That's my take for now. What do you think?

 

[klunderbunker]

I'd probably go with the same as yours plus Hoffman. Rivera was just so dominant that no one remembers Hoffman but maybe the writers can remember him for us.

Piazza belongs in as the greatest hitting catcher of all time. To the best of my knowledge he was never convicted of steroids and was never even seriously accused. The percentage would seem to agree with that and he just should be in there.

Griffey is in for the exact reasons you said.

This isn't the strongest class but those three should all be in. Bagwell maybe one day but for now, yeah just those three.

 

[X]

Piazza belongs in as the greatest hitting catcher of all time. To the best of my knowledge he was never convicted of steroids and was never even seriously accused. The percentage would seem to agree with that and he just should be in there.

Piazza has actually admitted multiple times to using PEDs.

Griffey is in, no doubt about it. One of the best power hitters of all time, stellar defense, and no PED stigma. Hoffman should probably go in as well because he's one of the best closers ever, arguably the best, but that position isn't one people are prone to respecting as much as a starting pitcher.

Rest of the first time guys don't really stand a chance at all, a lot of guys who were good for a few years but not nearly consistent or prolific enough to make the Hall. Honestly, I'm having a hard time looking at this ballot and being confident about anyone besides Griffey. Might be a really small class this year, which of course is bullshit because 3/4ths of the returning candidates deserve to be in there but won't make it because of the PED issue. Nothing we can really do about that one unfortunately, shame there's only a certain period of time you're eligible, because I feel like given 20-30 years a lot of these guys would make it once people stop being so upset about steroids. A Hall of Fame without the home run king really isn't even a hall of fame man. Hard to respect, especially considering the humongous pieces of human shit that populate it currently like Ty Cobb. Remember kids, totally cool to be a racist alcoholic wife-beater, just don't you fucking dare take a drug that hurts no one but yourself.

 

[tdmoon]

Of the first timers, I see Griffey, Jr. as the only lock. My gut says Hoffman should make it as well; he's second all time in saves, behind only Rivera. But Lee Smith was the all-time saves leader for a long time and never made it so Hoffman isn't a sure thing. It may be tough to get in on the first ballot and but he'll probably end up there eventually.

I can understand some of the bias against the PED players. There are some tainted guys, though, who I feel should be in. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have been HOFers with or without drugs. They were that good. Some guys, like Sosa, Palmeiro, McGwire, and Sheffield had the numbers but didn't give off that same vibe. In the last half of his career, Bonds had a presence unlike any I've ever seen in my lifetime.

It's already been mentioned in this thread, but Piazza is probably the best hitting catcher who ever played. That alone should get you in. Speaking of which, Jeff Kent put up numbers at second that nobody not named Hornsby has done. I thought he would at least get more consideration than he has. He's hit more homers than any second baseman in history, is a five-time all star and was an RBI machine for the better part of a decade.

I've been in a few discussions about potential HOF players and I've heard a few people make pretty compelling arguments that Tim Raines is worthy. My immediate reaction was he isn't quite at that level, but as a switch-hitter; he had 2,600 hits, a near .300 career BA, was one of histories great base stealers, a seven-time all star and he collected three rings and a batting title along the way. Pretty impressive.

 

[Richard Blonoff]

Griffey is the only lock this year. He was well liked by the media, never had the PED cloud over his head, and was one of the best five tool players of all time. Plus he was a sponsor machine. Dude helped Nike become an even bigger brand than it already was. Just a guy I was happy to watch play.

Hoffman should get in one day. I think Rivera will be the first closer to make it on the first ballot, but Hoffman deserves to be enshrined eventually.

As far as PEDs goes, I understand why people argue against them. I get that it creates an unfair playing field. I'd still wager that 75% or more of the guys in baseball were juicing in the late 80s to early 2000s though, so I personally choose not to hold it against them. Plus X makes a great point about Cobb. Dude was a known racist and misogynist and they just sweep it under the rug. What is worse in society, being a wife beater who also hates minorities or being a PED user? I think the answer is obvious.

If I was a voter my ballot this year would be-

Griffey- as stated above

Piazza- The guy is the greatest hitting catcher of all time, with regards to Johnny Bench.

Bagwell- I feel that he would have been a sure bet if he had hit the 500 HR plateau, but 449 for your career is pretty impressive. He is arguably the greatest Astro of all time behind Craig Biggio.

Schilling- Disregarding his political views, Schill had a pretty good career. His regular season numbers alone may not be enough, but when you couple those numbers with his postseason heroics I think he just makes the cut.

Clemens- Much like Schilling, I can't stand Roger, but I'm not going to let that stop me from voting in a three hundred game winner and one of the most dominant pitchers of my lifetime.

Sosa- PED clouds hover around Slamming Sammy and it will ultimately cost him enshrinement, but after the players strike in the early 90s baseball was suffering and without Sosa and McGwire in the mid to late 90s hitting all those home runs, baseball may have never recovered.

McGwire- Like I stated with Sosa, Big Mac helped revive the sport in his heyday. Plus the guy has been totally open and honest and his PED use. Unlike a lot of guys, like Sosa and Bonds, McGwire has been relatively transparent since he retired.

Bonds- Only three men have ever eclipsed the 700 HR mark. Bonds is one of them. I think he was totally a juicer and a diva and shitty teammate, but his numbers don't lie.

Mussina- Despite him being a Yankee for a good portion of his career, I always liked Moose. He put up consistent numbers for Baltimore and New York and had a nice long career. Only once did he ever hit the twenty win plateau though, so a lot of people don't view him as truly dominant. Still to only have one losing record (minus his short rookie year) in your career is impressive.

Martinez- Much like closers, DHs don't get their due respect. If they did, Martinez would be in the Hall. He was one of the best pure hitters of his time and helped carry some of those good Mariner teams along with Griffey. David Ortiz may have surpassed him as the greatest, but Martinez was for a long time the greatest DH in the game, and that deserves merit.

I already mentioned Hoffman, but there are other guys who I feel should go in eventually or at least get some recognition. McGriff was one of the best sluggers of the 90s. Sadly he fell less than ten HRs short of 500. He played on some Braves teams when I was younger that I enjoyed watching. Since he did play for Atlanta he will always be a sentimental favorite of mine to go in.

Sheffield- Much like the other guys with PED clouds, Sheffield will likely never get his due. He was more consistently good than outright dominant in his career, and he moved around a lot, both on the field and for the teams he played for, but that shouldn't count against him. I think his outspoken views on blacks and Latinos in baseball are a mark against him as well, though they shouldn't be.

Edmonds- I really like your point on Edmonds regarding his defense. I think Gold Gloves should come into factor when you look at a guys resume. Edmonds put up some solid numbers and played on an Angels team and a Cardinals team that went to the World Series, being a big factor for both. Probably destined for the hall of very good, but definitely deserves more than a passing glance.

Wagner- You could argue that Wagner is the best lefty reliever of all time. Dude was a fireballer that always brought it. Had he been a closer his entire career, I think he would get much more consideration. His 400+ saves are still pretty impressive. Fun fact, Wagner struck out almost exactly 33% of the batters he faced in his career.

Kendall- Not for nothing, but Kendall was probably the best base stealing catcher to ever play the game. He also quietly had 2100 hits in his career. He never had much pop in his bat, but he was a singles machine in his prime. Had he hit more than 75 HRs in his career, we may be talking about him more.