I've said it from the get-go, whoever wins this tournament is the best Heavyweight in the World.
I don't care if it's Fedor or Overeem who wins it, or Big Foot Silva or Josh Barnett who wins it... the winner of this tournament, in my eyes, will be the undisputed #1 Heavyweight in the World of Mixed Martial Arts.
However, they have to win the tournament. I don't care if Werdum beats Overeem and then beats Fedor again... if he does that and then loses to someone like Barnett in the finals, then it completely diminishes Werdum's victories in the tournament.
Cain Velasquez, right now, is the #1 Heavyweight in the World and he will remain so no matter what (as long as he's the UFC Heavyweight Champion, of course) until this tournament is concluded. You have to look at combat tournaments as one huge fight. You don't actually win a fight, until you win the whole thing.
Really? Because I think this is a pretty easy tournament to call. Especially with Fedor out. Arlovski getting knocked the fuck out was the surest bet in all of sports history. Anybody that picked Arlovski to win that fight was smoking some really good stuff. Barnett ought to steam roll past Rogers, too.
People might not believe me, but I had Silva beating Fedor. I wanted to Fedor to win, but I pretty much knew that Silva would take that fight. Fedor doesn't have the greatest stand-up in the world and, if you game-plan properly, i.e. avoid the overhand right, you can be effective against Fedor in the stand-up department. Bigfoot is 285 lbs of a BJJ Black Belt and some solid striking. It was only a matter of time before one of these behemoths that Fedor was fighting would have the all-around skillset to beat Fedor down.
I'm not knocking Fedor in ANY way, but normally these giants that he fights have a glaring deficiency that allowed Fedor, who by all rights necessary is a LHW fighting at HW, to pick up the W based on superior skills. Silva was a bad match-up for Fedor because of his sheer size coupled with those abilities. I mean, he practically ragged dolled and laughed at Fedor's two legitimate submission attempts.
I don't think this tournament answers any questions about the HW division due to the way StrikeForce set it up. They loaded the left side of the bracket and basically gave Barnett and Kharitonov a pass to the semis. They gave Overeem a fight that, even though he has lost to Werdum before, the knowledge from that fight and the massive improvements that Overeem has made, on paper, he should win fairly easily. Werdum hasn't really grown much as an MMA fighter, whereas Overeem keeps taking different steps to improve his game. The last time Werdum faced a fighter with Overeem's power and striking skills, he got his block knocked off.
Personally, I think this Grand Prix is a novelty item more than a true statement about the HW rankings. I don't care who wins this tournament, I'm not going to rank them above Cain Velasquez or Junior Dos Santos.
What's the point? After this tournament is over, the winner will, literally, have no competition left to face to keep that ranking.